arXiv subjects

Yingrui Zhuang

Publications and source records attributed to Yingrui Zhuang.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Quantum Learning and Estimation for Coordinated Operation between Distribution Networks and Energy Communities

Price signals from distribution networks (DNs) guide energy communities (ECs) in adjusting their energy usage, enabling effective coordination for reliable power system operation. However, this coordinated operation faces significant challenges due to the limited availability of ECs' internal information (i.e., only the aggregated energy usage of ECs is available to DNs), and the high computational burden of accounting for uncertainties and the associated risks through numerous scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose a quantum learning and estimation approach to enhance coordinated operation between DNs and ECs. Specifically, by leveraging advanced quantum properties such as quantum superposition and entanglement, we develop a hybrid quantum temporal convolutional network-long short-term memory (Q-TCN-LSTM) model to establish an end-to-end mapping between ECs' responses and the price incentives from DNs. Moreover, we develop a quantum estimation method based on quantum amplitude estimation (QAE) and two phase-rotation circuits to significantly accelerate the optimization process under numerous uncertainty scenarios. Numerical experiments demonstrate that, compared to classical neural networks, the proposed Q-TCN-LSTM model improves the mapping accuracy by 69.2\% while reducing the model size by 99.75\%. Compared to classical Monte Carlo simulation, QAE achieves comparable accuracy with a substantial reduction in computational resources. In addition, the estimated computation time for quantum learning and estimation on ideal quantum devices is over 90\% shorter than that of traditional methods.

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arXiv2025

An Iterative Problem-Driven Scenario Reduction Framework for Stochastic Optimization with Conditional Value-at-Risk

Scenario reduction (SR) alleviates the computational complexity of scenario-based stochastic optimization with conditional value-at-risk (SBSO-CVaR) by identifying representative scenarios to depict the underlying uncertainty and tail risks. Existing distribution-driven SR methods emphasize statistical similarity but often exclude extreme scenarios, leading to weak tail-risk awareness and insufficient problem-specific representativeness. Instead, this paper proposes an iterative problem-driven scenario reduction framework. Specifically, we integrate the SBSO-CVaR problem structure into SR process and project the original scenario set from the distribution space onto the problem space. Subsequently, to minimize the SR optimality gap with acceptable computation complexity, we propose a tractable iterative problem-driven scenario reduction (IPDSR) method that selects representative scenarios that best approximate the optimality distribution of the original scenario set while preserving tail risks. Furthermore, the iteration process is rendered as a mixed-integer program to enable scenario partitioning and representative scenarios selection. And ex-post problem-driven evaluation indices are proposed to evaluate the SR performance. Numerical experiments show IPDSR significantly outperforms existing SR methods by achieving an optimality gap of less than 1% within an acceptable computation time.

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arXiv2025

A Weighted Predict-and-Optimize Framework for Power System Operation Considering Varying Impacts of Uncertainty

Prediction deviations of different uncertainties have varying impacts on downstream decision-making. Improving the prediction accuracy of critical uncertainties with significant impacts on decision-making quality yields better optimization results. Motivated by this observation, this paper proposes a novel weighted predict-and-optimize (WPO) framework for decision-making under multiple uncertainties. Specifically, we incorporate an uncertainty-aware weighting mechanism into the predictive model to capture the relative impact of each uncertainty on specific optimization tasks, and introduce a problem-driven prediction loss (PDPL) to quantify the suboptimality of the weighted predictions relative to perfect predictions in downstream optimization. By optimizing the uncertainty weights to minimize the PDPL, the proposed WPO framework enables adaptive assessment of uncertainty impacts and joint learning of prediction and optimization. Furthermore, to facilitate weight optimization, we develop a surrogate model that establishes a direct mapping between the uncertainty weights and the PDPL, where enhanced graph convolutional networks and multi-task learning are adopted for efficient surrogate model construction and training. Numerical experiments on the modified IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed WPO framework outperforms the traditional predict-then-optimize paradigm, reducing the PDPL by an average of 55% within acceptable computational time.

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arXiv2025

Real-Time Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading for Multi-Microgrids: Improved Double Auction Mechanism and Prediction-Free Online Trading Approach

Peer-to-peer energy trading offers a promising solution for enhancing renewable energy utilization and economic benefits within interconnected microgrids. However, existing real-time P2P markets face two key challenges: high computational complexity in trading mechanisms, and suboptimal participant decision-making under diverse uncertainties. Existing prediction-based decision-making methods rely heavily on accurate forecasts, which are typically unavailable for microgrids, while prediction-free methods suffer from myopic behaviors. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an improved double auction mechanism combined with an adaptive step-size search algorithm to reduce computational burden, and a data-driven dual-reference online optimization (DDOO) framework to enhance participant decision-making. The improved mechanism simplifies bidding procedures, significantly reducing computational burden and ensuring rapid convergence to the market equilibrium. Additionally, the prediction-free DDOO framework mitigates myopic decision-making by introducing two informative reference signals. Case studies on a 20-microgrid system demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed mechanism and approach. The improved mechanism significantly decreases the computational time while increasing local energy self-sufficiency periods from 0.01% to 29.86%, reducing reverse power flow periods from 24.51% to 3.96%, and lowering average operating costs by 19.20%. Compared with conventional approaches such as Lyapunov optimization and model predictive control, the DDOO framework achieves a 10%-13% reduction in operating costs with an optimality gap of only 5.76%.

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arXiv2025

Capacity Credit Evaluation of Generalized Energy Storage Considering Strategic Capacity Withholding and Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

This paper proposes a novel capacity credit evaluation framework to accurately quantify the contribution of generalized energy storage (GES) to resource adequacy, considering both strategic capacity withholding and decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU). To this end, we establish a market-oriented risk-averse coordinated dispatch method to capture the cross-market reliable operation of GES. The proposed method is sequentially implemented along with the Monte Carlo simulation process, coordinating the pre-dispatched price arbitrage and capacity withholding in the energy market with adequacy-oriented re-dispatch during capacity market calls. In addition to decision-independent uncertainties in operational states and baseline behavior, we explicitly address the inherent DDU of GES (i.e., the uncertainty of available discharge capacity affected by the incentives and accumulated discomfort) during the re-dispatch stage using the proposed data-driven distributional robust chance-constrained approach. Furthermore, a capacity credit metric called equivalent storage capacity substitution is introduced to quantify the equivalent deterministic storage capacity of uncertain GES. Simulations on the modified IEEE RTS-79 benchmark system with 20 years real-world data from Elia demonstrate that the proposed method yields accurate capacity credit and improved economic performance. We show that the capacity credit of GES increases with more strategic capacity withholding but decreases with more DDU levels. Key factors, such as capacity withholding and DDU structure impacting GES's capacity credit are analyzed with insights into capacity market decision-making.

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arXiv2025

Energy-carbon comprehensive efficiency evaluation of hydrogen metallurgy system considering low-temperature waste heat recovery

To address the lack of energy-carbon efficiency evaluation and the underutilization of low-temperature waste heat in traditional direct reduction iron (DRI) production, this paper proposes a novel zero-carbon hydrogen metallurgy system that integrates the recovery and utilization of low-temperature and high-temperature waste heat, internal energy, and cold energy during hydrogen production, storage, reaction and circulation. Firstly, the detailed mathematical models are developed to describe energy and exergy characteristics of the operational components in the proposed zero-carbon hydrogen metallurgy system. Additionally, energy efficiency, exergy efficiency, and energy-carbon efficiency indices are introduced from a full life-cycle perspective of energy flow, avoiding the overlaps in energy inputs and outputs. Subsequently, the efficiency metrics of the proposed zero-carbon hydrogen metallurgy system are then compared with those of traditional DRI production systems with H$_2$/CO ratios of 6:4 and 8:2. The comparative results demonstrate the superiority and advancement of the proposed zero-carbon hydrogen metallurgy system. Finally, sensitivity analysis reveals that the overall electricity energy generated by incorporating the ORC and expander equipments exceeds the heat energy recovered from the furnace top gas, highlighting the energy potential of waste energy utilization.

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arXiv2024

Real-time Hosting Capacity Assessment for Electric Vehicles: A Sequential Forecast-then-Optimize Method

Hosting capacity (HC) assessment for electric vehicles (EVs) is crucial for EV secure integration and reliable power system operation. Existing methods primarily focus on a long-term perspective (e.g., system planning), and consider the EV charging demands as scalar values, which introduces inaccuracies in real-time operations due to the inherently stochastic nature of EVs. In this regard, this paper proposes a real-time HC assessment method for EVs through a three-step process, involving real-time probabilistic forecasting, risk analysis and probabilistic optimization. Specifically, we conduct real-time probabilistic forecasting to capture the stochastic nature of EV charging demands across multiple charging stations by performing deterministic forecasting and fitting the distribution of forecasting errors. The deterministic forecasting is conducted using an adaptive spatio-temporal graph convolutional network (ASTGCN). ASTGCN leverages adaptive spatial feature extraction, attention-based temporal feature extraction, and second-order graph representation to improve the forecasting performance. Subsequently, based on the probabilistic forecasting of EV charging demands, we conduct real-time risk analysis and operational boundary identification by utilizing probabilistic power flow calculations to assess potential violations of secure operation constraints. Furthermore, we present the formulation of real-time HC of EVs considering expected satisfaction of stochastic EV charging demands, and propose an optimization model for real-time HC assessment of EVs. Numerical experiments on a real-world dataset demonstrate that the proposed ASTGCN model outperforms state-of-the-art forecasting models by achieving the lowest root mean square error of 0.0442, and the real-time HC is improved by 64% compared to long-term HC assessment.

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arXiv2024

Problem-Driven Scenario Reduction Framework for Power System Stochastic Operation

Scenario reduction (SR) aims to identify a small yet representative scenario set to depict the underlying uncertainty, which is critical to scenario-based stochastic optimization (SBSO) of power systems. Existing SR techniques commonly aim to achieve statistical approximation to the original scenario set. However, SR and SBSO are commonly considered as two distinct and decoupled processes, which cannot guarantee a superior approximation of the original optimality. Instead, this paper incorporates the SBSO problem structure into the SR process and introduces a novel problem-driven scenario reduction (PDSR) framework. Specifically, we project the original scenario set in distribution space onto the mutual decision applicability between scenarios in problem space. Subsequently, the SR process, embedded by a distinctive problem-driven distance metric, is rendered as a mixed-integer linear programming formulation to obtain the representative scenario set while minimizing the optimality gap. Furthermore, ex-ante and ex-post problem-driven evaluation indices are proposed to evaluate the SR performance. Numerical experiments on two two-stage stochastic economic dispatch problems validate the effectiveness of PDSR, and demonstrate that PDSR significantly outperforms existing SR methods by identifying salient (e.g., worst-case) scenarios, and achieving an optimality gap of less than 0.1% within acceptable computation time.

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arXiv2024

LiFePO4 Battery SOC Estimation under OCV-SOC Curve Error Based onAdaptive Multi-Model Kalman Filter

LiFePO4 batteries are widely used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems due to long cycle life and high safety performance. However, the OCV-SOC curve (OSC) of these batteries features a long plateau region, making state of charge (SOC) estimation highly sensitive to OSC error, which arises due to aging and temperature. To address this, we propose an SOC estimation method that accounts for error in OSC. First, we establish battery equivalent circuit model (ECM) and introduce a parameters identification algorithm based on adaptive recursive least squares. Next, we derive the relationship between the innovation's cross-correlation matrix (CCM)/ auto-correlation matrix (ACM) of the Kalman filter and the OSC error. We then develop an adaptive multi-model Kalman filter (AMMKF), which dynamically adjusts the measurement model parameters of each filter based on the sign of the OSC error. By assigning a probability to each filter according to its predicted voltage distribution function, the optimal filter is selected. The proposed method is tested under various OSC error types and operating conditions. Results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves high accuracy and robustness, with an RMSE of less than 3\%, which is more than 10\% lower than the estimation error of traditional method.

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arXiv2023

Chance-Constrained Generic Energy Storage Operations under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

Compared with large-scale physical batteries, aggregated and coordinated generic energy storage (GES) resources provide low-cost, but uncertain, flexibility for power grid operations. While GES can be characterized by different types of uncertainty, the literature mostly focuses on decision-independent uncertainties (DIUs), such as exogenous stochastic disturbances caused by weather conditions. Instead, this manuscript focuses on newly-introduced decision-dependent uncertainties (DDUs) and considers an optimal GES dispatch that accounts for uncertain available state-of-charge (SoC) bounds that are affected by incentive signals and discomfort levels. To incorporate DDUs, we present a novel chance-constrained optimization (CCO) approach for the day-ahead economic dispatch of GES units. Two tractable methods are presented to solve the proposed CCO problem with DDUs: (i) a robust reformulation for general but incomplete distributions of DDUs, and (ii) an iterative algorithm for specific and known distributions of DDUs. Furthermore, reliability indices are introduced to verify the applicability of the proposed approach with respect to the reliability of the response of GES units. Simulation-based analysis shows that the proposed methods yield conservative, but credible, GES dispatch strategies and reduced penalty cost by incorporating DDUs in the constraints and leveraging data-driven parameter identification. This results in improved availability and performance of coordinated GES units.

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arXiv2022

Risk Assessment with Generic Energy Storage under Exogenous and Endogenous Uncertainty

Current risk assessment ignores the stochastic nature of energy storage availability itself and thus lead to potential risk during operation. This paper proposes the redefinition of generic energy storage (GES) that is allowed to offer probabilistic reserve. A data-driven unified model with exogenous and endogenous uncertainty (EXU & EDU) description is presented for four typical types of GES. Moreover, risk indices are proposed to assess the impact of overlooking (EXU & EDU) of GES. Comparative results between EXU & EDU are illustrated in distribution system with day-ahead chance-constrained optimization (CCO) and more severe risks are observed for the latter, which indicate that system operator (SO) should adopt novel strategies for EDU uncertainty.

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