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Yisha Xiang

Publications and source records attributed to Yisha Xiang.

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Certifying Lower Bounds for Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning under Adversarial State Perturbations

Reinforcement learning (RL) agents deployed in real-world environments are often vulnerable to adversarial perturbations in state observations, creating risks in safety-critical applications. Certification methods can improve robustness against adversarial perturbations by providing lower bounds on expected cumulative rewards. Existing certification methods, however, mainly focus on risk-neutral objectives. In this paper, we extend certification methods to risk-sensitive objectives by establishing lower bounds on the exponential utility of cumulative rewards under $l_{p}$-norm-bounded state adversarial perturbations ($1\leq p <\infty$). By introducing a $\phi$-divergence relaxation of the perturbation set, we formulate the risk-sensitive certification problem as a convex optimization and derive its dual to obtain a tractable approximation of the certified lower bound. We further propose an empirical method that improves certified lower bounds by selecting the training risk-aversion parameter $\beta$ independently of the risk level used during evaluation. Experiments on both OpenAI Gym environments and a machine replacement problem show that, compared to risk-neutral training, risk-averse training generally yields policies with higher certified lower bounds, particularly under larger perturbation budgets. Moreover, under both risk-neutral and risk-averse evaluation settings, increasing risk aversion during training leads to non-monotonic certification performance, where certified lower bounds initially improve but eventually decrease due to overly conservative policies.

cs.LG

Dynamic resource matching in manufacturing using deep reinforcement learning

Matching plays an important role in the logical allocation of resources across a wide range of industries. The benefits of matching have been increasingly recognized in manufacturing industries. In particular, capacity sharing has received much attention recently. In this paper, we consider the problem of dynamically matching demand-capacity types of manufacturing resources. We formulate the multi-period, many-to-many manufacturing resource-matching problem as a sequential decision process. The formulated manufacturing resource-matching problem involves large state and action spaces, and it is not practical to accurately model the joint distribution of various types of demands. To address the curse of dimensionality and the difficulty of explicitly modeling the transition dynamics, we use a model-free deep reinforcement learning approach to find optimal matching policies. Moreover, to tackle the issue of infeasible actions and slow convergence due to initial biased estimates caused by the maximum operator in Q-learning, we introduce two penalties to the traditional Q-learning algorithm: a domain knowledge-based penalty based on a prior policy and an infeasibility penalty that conforms to the demand-supply constraints. We establish theoretical results on the convergence of our domain knowledge-informed Q-learning providing performance guarantee for small-size problems. For large-size problems, we further inject our modified approach into the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) algorithm, which we refer to as domain knowledge-informed DDPG (DKDDPG). In our computational study, including small- and large-scale experiments, DKDDPG consistently outperformed traditional DDPG and other RL algorithms, yielding higher rewards and demonstrating greater efficiency in time and episodes.

cs.LG

Online Statistical Inference of Constant Sample-averaged Q-Learning

Reinforcement learning algorithms have been widely used for decision-making tasks in various domains. However, the performance of these algorithms can be impacted by high variance and instability, particularly in environments with noise or sparse rewards. In this paper, we propose a framework to perform statistical online inference for a sample-averaged Q-learning approach. We adapt the functional central limit theorem (FCLT) for the modified algorithm under some general conditions and then construct confidence intervals for the Q-values via random scaling. We conduct experiments to perform inference on both the modified approach and its traditional counterpart, Q-learning using random scaling and report their coverage rates and confidence interval widths on two problems: a grid world problem as a simple toy example and a dynamic resource-matching problem as a real-world example for comparison between the two solution approaches.

stat.ML

Modeling Multivariate Degradation Data with Dynamic Covariates Under a Bayesian Framework

Degradation data are essential for determining the reliability of high-end products and systems, especially when covering multiple degradation characteristics (DCs). Modern degradation studies not only measure these characteristics but also record dynamic system usage and environmental factors, such as temperature, humidity, and ultraviolet exposures, referred to as the dynamic covariates. Most current research either focuses on a single DC with dynamic covariates or multiple DCs with fixed covariates. This paper presents a Bayesian framework to analyze data with multiple DCs, which incorporates dynamic covariates. We develop a Bayesian framework for mixed effect nonlinear general path models to describe the degradation path and use Bayesian shape-constrained P-splines to model the effects of dynamic covariates. We also detail algorithms for estimating the failure time distribution induced by our degradation model, validate the developed methods through simulation, and illustrate their use in predicting the lifespan of organic coatings in dynamic environments.

stat.ME

Asymptotic Analysis of Sample-averaged Q-learning

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a key approach for training agents in complex and uncertain environments. Incorporating statistical inference in RL algorithms is essential for understanding and managing uncertainty in model performance. This paper introduces a generalized framework for time-varying batch-averaged Q-learning, termed sample-averaged Q-learning (SA-QL), which extends traditional single-sample Q-learning by aggregating samples of rewards and next states to better account for data variability and uncertainty. We leverage the functional central limit theorem (FCLT) to establish a novel framework that provides insights into the asymptotic normality of the sample-averaged algorithm under mild conditions. Additionally, we develop a random scaling method for interval estimation, enabling the construction of confidence intervals without requiring extra hyperparameters. Extensive numerical experiments across classic stochastic OpenAI Gym environments, including windy gridworld and slippery frozenlake, demonstrate how different batch scheduling strategies affect learning efficiency, coverage rates, and confidence interval widths. This work establishes a unified theoretical foundation for sample-averaged Q-learning, providing insights into effective batch scheduling and statistical inference for RL algorithms.

cs.LG

Robust Remanufacturing Planning with Parameter Uncertainty

We consider the problem of remanufacturing planning in the presence of statistical estimation errors. Determining the optimal remanufacturing timing, first and foremost, requires modeling of the state transitions of a system. The estimation of these probabilities, however, often suffers from data inadequacy and is far from accurate, resulting in serious degradation in performance. To mitigate the impacts of the uncertainty in transition probabilities, we develop a novel data-driven modeling framework for remanufacturing planning in which decision makers can remain robust with respect to statistical estimation errors. We model the remanufacturing planning problem as a robust Markov decision process, and construct ambiguity sets that contain the true transition probability distributions with high confidence. We further establish structural properties of optimal robust policies and insights for remanufacturing planning. A computational study on the NASA turbofan engine shows that our data-driven decision framework consistently yields better worst-case performances and higher reliability of the performance guarantee

math.OC

Condition-based Maintenance for Multi-component Systems:Modeling, Structural Properties, and Algorithms

Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is an effective maintenance strategy to improve system performance while lowering operating and maintenance costs. Real-world systems typically consist of a large number of components with various interactions between components. However, existing studies on CBM focus on single-component systems. Multi-component condition-based maintenance, which joins the components' stochastic degradation processes and the combinatorial maintenance grouping problem, remains an open issue in the literature. In this paper, we study the CBM optimization problem for multi-component systems. We first develop a multi-stage stochastic integer model with the objective of minimizing the total maintenance cost over a finite planning horizon. We then investigate the structural properties of a two-stage model. Based on the structural properties, two efficient algorithms are designed to solve the two-stage model. Algorithm 1 solves the problem to its optimality and Algorithm 2 heuristically searches for high-quality solutions based on Algorithm 1. Our computational studies show that Algorithm 1 obtains optimal solutions in a reasonable amount of time and Algorithm 2 can find high-quality solutions quickly. The multi-stage problem is solved using a rolling horizon approach based on the algorithms for the two-stage problem.

math.OC

Health Assessment and Prognostics Based on Higher Order Hidden Semi-Markov Models

This paper presents a new and flexible prognostics framework based on a higher order hidden semi-Markov model (HOHSMM) for systems or components with unobservable health states and complex transition dynamics. The HOHSMM extends the basic hidden Markov model (HMM) by allowing the hidden state to depend on its more distant history and assuming generally distributed state duration. An effective Gibbs sampling algorithm is designed for statistical inference of an HOHSMM. The performance of the proposed HOHSMM sampler is evaluated by conducting a simulation experiment. We further design a decoding algorithm to estimate the hidden health states using the learned model. Remaining useful life (RUL) is predicted using a simulation approach given the decoded hidden states. The practical utility of the proposed prognostics framework is demonstrated by a case study on NASA turbofan engines. The results show that the HOHSMM-based prognostics framework provides good hidden health state assessment and RUL estimation for complex systems.

stat.AP

Multi-component Maintenance Optimization: A Stochastic Programming Approach

Maintenance optimization has been extensively studied in the past decades. However, most of the existing maintenance models focus on single-component systems and are not applicable for complex systems consisting of multiple components, due to various interactions between the components. Multi-component maintenance optimization problem, which joins the stochastic processes regarding the failures of the components with the combinatorial problems regarding the grouping of maintenance activities, is challenging in both modeling and solution techniques, and has remained as an open issue in the literature. In this paper, we study the multi-component maintenance problem over a finite planning horizon and formulate the problem as a multi-stage stochastic integer program with decision-dependent uncertainty. There is a lack of general efficient methods to solve this type of problem. To address this challenge, we use an alternative approach to model the underlying failure process and develop a novel two-stage model without decision-dependent uncertainty. Structural properties of the two-stage problem are investigated, and a progressive-hedging-based heuristic is developed based on the structural properties. Our heuristic algorithm demonstrates a significantly improved capacity in handling practically large-size two-stage problems comparing to three conventional methods for stochastic integer programming, and solving the two-stage model by our heuristic in a rolling horizon provides a good approximation of the multi-stage problem. The heuristic is further benchmarked with a dynamic programming approach commonly adopted in the literature. Numerical results show that our heuristic can lead to significant cost savings compared with the benchmark approach.

math.OC