arXiv subjects

Yize Chen

Publications and source records attributed to Yize Chen.

83 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Non-Wire Alternatives: an Additional Value Stream for Distributed Energy Resources

Distributed energy resources (DERs) can serve as non-wire alternatives (NWAs) to capacity expansion by managing peak load to avoid or delay traditional expansion projects. However, the value stream derived from using DERs as NWAs is usually not explicitly included in DER planning problems. In this paper, we study a planning problem that co-optimizes investment and operation of DERs and the timing of capacity expansion. By including the timing of capacity expansion as a decision variable, we naturally incorporate NWA value stream of DERs into the planning problem. Furthermore, we show that even though the resulting optimization problem could have millions of variables and is non-convex, an optimal solution can be found by solving a series of smaller linear problems. Finally, we present a NWAs planning problem using real data from the Seattle Campus of the University of Washington.

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arXiv2019

Exploiting Vulnerabilities of Load Forecasting Through Adversarial Attacks

Load forecasting plays a critical role in the operation and planning of power systems. By using input features such as historical loads and weather forecasts, system operators and utilities build forecast models to guide decision making in commitment and dispatch. As the forecasting techniques becomes more sophisticated, however, they also become more vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of a class of load forecasting algorithms and analyze the potential impact on the power system operations, such as load shedding and increased dispatch costs. Specifically, we propose data injection attack algorithms that require minimal assumptions on the ability of the adversary. The attacker does not need to have knowledge about the load forecasting model or the underlying power system. Surprisingly, our results indicate that standard load forecasting algorithms are quite vulnerable to the designed black-box attacks. By only injecting malicious data in temperature from online weather forecast APIs, an attacker could manipulate load forecasts in arbitrary directions and cause significant and targeted damages to system operations.

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arXiv2019

Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Renewable Scenarios: a Deep Generative Approach

The operation and planning of large-scale power systems are becoming more challenging with the increasing penetration of stochastic renewable generation. In order to minimize the decision risks in power systems with large amount of renewable resources, there is a growing need to model the short-term generation uncertainty. By producing a group of possible future realizations for certain set of renewable generation plants, scenario approach has become one popular way for renewables uncertainty modeling. However, due to the complex spatial and temporal correlations underlying in renewable generations, traditional model-based approaches for forecasting future scenarios often require extensive knowledge, while fitted models are often hard to scale. To address such modeling burdens, we propose a learning-based, data-driven scenario forecasts method based on generative adversarial networks (GANs), which is a class of deep-learning generative algorithms used for modeling unknown distributions. We firstly utilize an improved GANs with convergence guarantees to learn the intrinsic patterns and model the unknown distributions of (multiple-site) renewable generation time-series. Then by solving an optimization problem, we are able to generate forecasted scenarios without any scenario number and forecasting horizon restrictions. Our method is totally model-free, and could forecast scenarios under different level of forecast uncertainties. Extensive numerical simulations using real-world data from NREL wind and solar integration datasets validate the performance of proposed method in forecasting both wind and solar power scenarios.

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arXiv2019

Optimal Control Via Neural Networks: A Convex Approach

Control of complex systems involves both system identification and controller design. Deep neural networks have proven to be successful in many identification tasks, however, from model-based control perspective, these networks are difficult to work with because they are typically nonlinear and nonconvex. Therefore many systems are still identified and controlled based on simple linear models despite their poor representation capability. In this paper we bridge the gap between model accuracy and control tractability faced by neural networks, by explicitly constructing networks that are convex with respect to their inputs. We show that these input convex networks can be trained to obtain accurate models of complex physical systems. In particular, we design input convex recurrent neural networks to capture temporal behavior of dynamical systems. Then optimal controllers can be achieved via solving a convex model predictive control problem. Experiment results demonstrate the good potential of the proposed input convex neural network based approach in a variety of control applications. In particular we show that in the MuJoCo locomotion tasks, we could achieve over 10% higher performance using 5* less time compared with state-of-the-art model-based reinforcement learning method; and in the building HVAC control example, our method achieved up to 20% energy reduction compared with classic linear models.

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arXiv2018

Is Machine Learning in Power Systems Vulnerable?

Recent advances in Machine Learning(ML) have led to its broad adoption in a series of power system applications, ranging from meter data analytics, renewable/load/price forecasting to grid security assessment. Although these data-driven methods yield state-of-the-art performances in many tasks, the robustness and security of applying such algorithms in modern power grids have not been discussed. In this paper, we attempt to address the issues regarding the security of ML applications in power systems. We first show that most of the current ML algorithms proposed in power systems are vulnerable to adversarial examples, which are maliciously crafted input data. We then adopt and extend a simple yet efficient algorithm for finding subtle perturbations, which could be used for generating adversaries for both categorical(e.g., user load profile classification) and sequential applications(e.g., renewables generation forecasting). Case studies on classification of power quality disturbances and forecast of building loads demonstrate the vulnerabilities of current ML algorithms in power networks under our adversarial designs. These vulnerabilities call for design of robust and secure ML algorithms for real world applications.

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arXiv2018

An Unsupervised Deep Learning Approach for Scenario Forecasts

In this paper, we propose a novel scenario forecasts approach which can be applied to a broad range of power system operations (e.g., wind, solar, load) over various forecasts horizons and prediction intervals. This approach is model-free and data-driven, producing a set of scenarios that represent possible future behaviors based only on historical observations and point forecasts. It first applies a newly-developed unsupervised deep learning framework, the generative adversarial networks, to learn the intrinsic patterns in historical renewable generation data. Then by solving an optimization problem, we are able to quickly generate large number of realistic future scenarios. The proposed method has been applied to a wind power generation and forecasting dataset from national renewable energy laboratory. Simulation results indicate our method is able to generate scenarios that capture spatial and temporal correlations. Our code and simulation datasets are freely available online.

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arXiv2018

Towards Trusted Social Networks with Blockchain Technology

Large-scale rumor spreading could pose severe social and economic damages. The emergence of online social networks along with the new media can even make rumor spreading more severe. Effective control of rumor spreading is of theoretical and practical significance. This paper takes the first step to understand how the blockchain technology can help limit the spread of rumors. Specifically, we develop a new paradigm for social networks embedded with the blockchain technology, which employs decentralized contracts to motivate trust networks as well as secure information exchange contract. We design a blockchain-based sequential algorithm which utilizes virtual information credits for each peer-to-peer information exchange. We validate the effectiveness of the blockchain-enabled social network on limiting the rumor spreading. Simulation results validate our algorithm design in avoiding rapid and intense rumor spreading, and motivate better mechanism design for trusted social networks.

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arXiv2018

Model-Free Renewable Scenario Generation Using Generative Adversarial Networks

Scenario generation is an important step in the operation and planning of power systems with high renewable penetrations. In this work, we proposed a data-driven approach for scenario generation using generative adversarial networks, which is based on two interconnected deep neural networks. Compared with existing methods based on probabilistic models that are often hard to scale or sample from, our method is data-driven, and captures renewable energy production patterns in both temporal and spatial dimensions for a large number of correlated resources. For validation, we use wind and solar times-series data from NREL integration data sets. We demonstrate that the proposed method is able to generate realistic wind and photovoltaic power profiles with full diversity of behaviors. We also illustrate how to generate scenarios based on different conditions of interest by using labeled data during training. For example, scenarios can be conditioned on weather events~(e.g. high wind day) or time of the year~(e,g. solar generation for a day in July). Because of the feedforward nature of the neural networks, scenarios can be generated extremely efficiently without sophisticated sampling techniques.

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arXiv2018

Bayesian Renewables Scenario Generation via Deep Generative Networks

We present a method to generate renewable scenarios using Bayesian probabilities by implementing the Bayesian generative adversarial network~(Bayesian GAN), which is a variant of generative adversarial networks based on two interconnected deep neural networks. By using a Bayesian formulation, generators can be constructed and trained to produce scenarios that capture different salient modes in the data, allowing for better diversity and more accurate representation of the underlying physical process. Compared to conventional statistical models that are often hard to scale or sample from, this method is model-free and can generate samples extremely efficiently. For validation, we use wind and solar times-series data from NREL integration data sets to train the Bayesian GAN. We demonstrate that proposed method is able to generate clusters of wind scenarios with different variance and mean value, and is able to distinguish and generate wind and solar scenarios simultaneously even if the historical data are intentionally mixed.

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arXiv2017

Modeling and Optimization of Complex Building Energy Systems with Deep Neural Networks

Modern buildings encompass complex dynamics of multiple electrical, mechanical, and control systems. One of the biggest hurdles in applying conventional model-based optimization and control methods to building energy management is the huge cost and effort of capturing diverse and temporally correlated dynamics. Here we propose an alternative approach which is model-free and data-driven. By utilizing high volume of data coming from advanced sensors, we train a deep Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) which could accurately represent the operation's temporal dynamics of building complexes. The trained network is then directly fitted into a constrained optimization problem with finite horizons. By reformulating the constrained optimization as an unconstrained optimization problem, we use iterative gradient descents method with momentum to find optimal control inputs. Simulation results demonstrate proposed method's improved performances over model-based approach on both building system modeling and control.

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arXiv2017

Blocking Transferability of Adversarial Examples in Black-Box Learning Systems

Advances in Machine Learning (ML) have led to its adoption as an integral component in many applications, including banking, medical diagnosis, and driverless cars. To further broaden the use of ML models, cloud-based services offered by Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and others have developed ML-as-a-service tools as black-box systems. However, ML classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial examples: inputs that are maliciously modified can cause the classifier to provide adversary-desired outputs. Moreover, it is known that adversarial examples generated on one classifier are likely to cause another classifier to make the same mistake, even if the classifiers have different architectures or are trained on disjoint datasets. This property, which is known as transferability, opens up the possibility of attacking black-box systems by generating adversarial examples on a substitute classifier and transferring the examples to the target classifier. Therefore, the key to protect black-box learning systems against the adversarial examples is to block their transferability. To this end, we propose a training method that, as the input is more perturbed, the classifier smoothly outputs lower confidence on the original label and instead predicts that the input is "invalid". In essence, we augment the output class set with a NULL label and train the classifier to reject the adversarial examples by classifying them as NULL. In experiments, we apply a wide range of attacks based on adversarial examples on the black-box systems. We show that a classifier trained with the proposed method effectively resists against the adversarial examples, while maintaining the accuracy on clean data.

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