arXiv subjects

Yohai Kaspi

Publications and source records attributed to Yohai Kaspi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Modulation of the tropical meridional circulation by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Hadley circulation is Earth's dominant tropical overturning circulation, regulating atmospheric energy transport, tropical rainfall, and subtropical aridity. Although its variability has been extensively studied on seasonal to decadal climate-change timescales, its subseasonal behaviour remains poorly understood. Here we show that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the leading mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, systematically modulates the Hadley circulation and influences global hydroclimate variability. Using reanalysis data and dynamical diagnostics, we identify a robust hemispherically asymmetric Hadley circulation anomaly associated with active MJO events, with amplitudes comparable to the climatological intraseasonal variability of the Hadley circulation. Breaking down the dynamical components reveals that the response is primarily maintained by latent heating associated with moist convection, while the overturning strength is driven by interhemispheric moisture gradients. Lead-lag analyses further show that the Hadley circulation lags the MJO by 4-15 days, indicating that MJO convection may drive overturning adjustments on subseasonal timescales. This coupled MJO-Hadley circulation state reveals a previously overlooked pathway linking tropical intraseasonal oscillations, meridional circulation and the hydrological cycle.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Juno Microwave Radiometer Observations Reveal A Warmer Polar Atmosphere on Jupiter

The intriguing circumpolar cyclone pattern at Jupiter's poles raises fundamental questions about how these systems are organized vertically and, further, how the planet's internal heat shapes and sustains them in the absence of solar insolation. We report recent close-in observations of Jupiter's north pole acquired by NASA's Juno Microwave Radiometer (MWR), which achieved comprehensive microwave mapping of the region at an unprecedentedly high resolution. Using six-channel measurements from eleven perijove passes (PJ51-PJ61) poleward of 75N, we derive polar-mean nadir brightness temperatures and limb-darkening spectra that together point to two equally plausible atmospheric scenarios: (1) a dry-adiabatic profile with slightly depleted ammonia gas at a few bars, or (2) a moist-adiabatic profile with uniform ammonia. Markov chain Monte Carlo retrievals yield a deep ammonia abundance of 354.8+12.0/-11.0 ppmv (3+/-0.1 x solar) and a water abundance of 1.8+1.5/-1.1 x 1000 ppmv (2.1+1.8/-1.3 x solar), resembling previous estimates at lower latitudes. Remarkably, the north pole is found to be 6-7 K warmer than the equator at the 1-bar level, although the inferred difference is close to the 1-sigma uncertainty level. If confirmed, this result would suggest an enhanced internal heat flux toward the poles, which is consistent with the more intense lightning activity observed at high latitudes.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Geant4-IcyMoons: Simulating Electron Interaction Physics in Irradiated Astrophysical Ices

Energetic particles continuously process water ice across astrophysical and planetary environments, from interstellar clouds and comets to icy planetary surfaces. Interpreting the resulting observables requires a physically grounded description of the underlying interactions, both to identify radiation-driven signatures and to distinguish them from superimposed chemical, thermal, and microphysical effects. We present Geant4-IcyMoons, an extension of Geant4-DNA developed for irradiated water ice and, ultimately, for materials embedded within it. In this study, we model the elastic and inelastic interactions of electrons with amorphous and hexagonal ice. For the first time, this enables a transport-ready Monte Carlo simulation of electron irradiation in water ice, linking incident-particle environments to the evolution of icy surfaces. We apply this framework to Jupiter's moon Europa as a representative case of electron bombardment of an icy surface. We show that, on the trailing hemisphere, the stronger low-energy electron bombardment confines much of the deposited energy to the upper $\lesssim 0.1$ cm, whereas on the leading hemisphere, the more energetic incident population drives deposition patterns to depths of tens of centimeters. This may contribute to the observed lens-like enrichment of radiolysis products centered on the equator of the trailing hemisphere. This work lays the foundation for treatments of ion irradiation and radiation chemistry in water ice and embedded materials.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Molecular diversity as a biosignature

The search for life in the Solar System hinges on data from planetary missions. Detecting biosignatures based on molecular identity, isotopic composition, or chiral excess requires measurements that current and planned missions can only partially provide. We introduce a new class of biosignatures, defined by the statistical organization of molecular assemblages and quantified using diversity metrics. Using this framework, we analyze amino-acid diversity across a dataset spanning terrestrial and extraterrestrial contexts. We find that biotic samples are consistently more diverse -- and therefore distinct -- from their sparser abiotic counterparts. This distinction also holds for fatty acids, indicating that the diversity signal reflects a fundamental biosynthetic signature. It also proves persistent under modeled space-like degradation. Relying only on relative abundances, this biogenicity assessment strategy is applicable to any molecular composition data from archived, current, and planned planetary missions. By capturing a fundamental statistical property of life's chemical organization, it may also transcend biosignatures that are contingent on Earth's evolutionary history.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Dynamical constraints on the vertical structure of Jupiter's polar cyclones

Jupiter's poles feature striking polygons of cyclones that drift westward over time, a motion governed by beta-drift (vortex motion caused by the latitudinal variation of the Coriolis force). This study investigates how beta-drift and the resulting westward motion depend on the depth of these cyclones. Counterintuitively, shallower cyclones drift more slowly, a consequence of stronger vortex stretching. By employing a 2D quasi-geostrophic model of Jupiter's polar regions, we constrain the cyclones' deformation radius, a key parameter that serves as a proxy for their vertical extent, required to replicate the observed westward drift. We then explore possible vertical structures and the static stability of the poles by solving the eigenvalue problem that links the 2D model to a 3D framework, matching the constrained deformation radius. These findings provide a foundation for interpreting upcoming Juno microwave measurements of Jupiter's north pole, offering insights into the static stability and vertical structure of the polar cyclones. Thus, by leveraging long-term motion as a novel constraint on vertical dynamics, this work sets the stage for advancing our understanding of the formation and evolution of Jupiter's enigmatic polar cyclones.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Predictability of Storms in an Idealized Climate Revealed by Machine Learning

The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the intensity growth and trajectory of over 200,000 storms simulated in a 200-year aquaplanet GCM. This idealized framework provides a controlled climate background for isolating factors that govern predictability. Results show that storm intensity is less predictable than trajectory. Strong baroclinicity accelerates storm intensification and reduces its predictability, consistent with theory. Crucially, enhanced jet meanders further degrade forecast skill, revealing a synoptic source of uncertainty. Using sensitivity maps from explainable AI, we find that the error growth rate is nearly doubled by the more meandering structure. These findings highlight the potential of machine learning for advancing understanding of predictability and its governing mechanisms.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

From gas to ice giants: A unified mechanism for equatorial jets

The equatorial jets dominating the dynamics of the Jovian planets exhibit two distinct types of zonal flows: strongly eastward in the gas giants (superrotation) and strongly westward in the ice giants (subrotation). Existing theories propose different mechanisms for these patterns, but no single mechanism has successfully explained both. However, the planetary parameters of the four Solar System giant planets suggest that a fundamentally different mechanism is unlikely. In this study, we show that convection-driven columnar structures can account for both eastward and westward equatorial jets, framing the phenomenon as a bifurcation. Consequently, both superrotation and subrotation emerge as stable branches of the same mechanistic solution. Our analysis of these solutions uncovers similarities in the properties of equatorial waves and the leading-order momentum balance. This study suggests that the fundamental dynamics governing equatorial jet formation may be more broadly applicable across the Jovian planets than previously believed, offering a unified explanation for their two distinct zonal wind patterns.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Storm Activity Using Machine Learning

Extratropical storms shape midlatitude weather and vary due to the slowly evolving climate and the rapid changes in synoptic conditions. While the influence of each factor has been studied extensively, their relative importance remains unclear. Here, we quantify the climate's relative importance in mean storm activity and individual storm development using 84 years of ERA-5 data and convolutional neural networks. We find that the constructed model predicts over 90% of the variability in the mean storm activity. However, a similar model predicts about a third of the variability in individual storm properties, such as maximum intensity, showing their variability is dominated by synoptic conditions. Isolating the impact of present-day climate change on individual storms shows it contributes to about 0.1% for storm-intensity variability, whereas its contribution to storms' heat-anomaly variability is over three times greater, highlighting that focusing on variables directly tied to global warming offers a clearer attribution pathway.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Fluorescent Biomolecules Detectable in Near-Surface Ice on Europa

Europa, Jupiter's second Galilean moon, is believed to host a subsurface ocean in contact with a rocky mantle, where hydrothermal activity may drive the synthesis of organic molecules. Of these molecules, abiotic synthesis of aromatic amino acids is unlikely, and their detection on Europa could be considered a biosignature. Fluorescence from aromatic amino acids, with characteristic emissions in the 200-400 nanometer wavelength range, can be induced by a laser and may be detectable where ocean material has been relatively recently emplaced on Europa's surface, as indicated by geologically young terrain and surface features. However, surface bombardment by charged particles from the Jovian magnetosphere and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation degrades organic molecules, limiting their longevity. We model radiolysis and photolysis of aromatic amino acids embedded in ice, showing dependencies on hemispheric and latitudinal patterns of charged particle bombardment and ice phase. We demonstrate that biosignatures contained within freshly deposited ice in high-latitude regions on the surface of Europa are detectable using laser-induced UV fluorescence, even from an orbiting spacecraft.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

A Lagrangian Perspective on the Growth of Midlatitude Storms

Extratropical storms dominate midlatitude climate and weather and are known to grow baroclinicaly and decay barotropicaly. Traditionally, quantitative climatic measures of storm growth have been mostly based on Eulerian measures, taking into account the mean state of the atmosphere and how those affect eddy growth, but they do not consider the Lagrangian growth of the storms themselves. Here, using ERA-5 reanalysis data and tracking all extratropical storms (cyclones and anticyclones) from 83 years of data, we examine the actual growth of the storms and compare it to the Eulerian characteristics of the mean state as the storms develop. In the limit of weak baroclinicity, we find that baroclinicity provides a good measure for storm maximum intensity. However, this monotonic relationship breaks for high baroclinicity levels. We show that although the actual growth rate of individual storms monotonically increases with baroclinicity, the reduction in maximum intensity at high baroclinicity is caused by a decrease in storm growth time. Based on the Lagrangian analysis, we suggest a nonlinear correction to the traditional linear connection between baroclinicity and storms' activity. Then, we show that a simplified model of storm growth, incorporating the baroclinicity effect on the vertical tilt of anomalies, reproduces the observed nonlinear relationship. Expanding the analysis to include the mean flow's barotropic properties highlights their marginal effect on storm growth rate, but the crucial impact on growth time. Our results emphasize the potential of Lagrangianly studying storm dynamics to advance understanding of the midlatitude climate.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Characterizing Jupiter's interior using machine learning reveals four key structures

The internal structure of Jupiter is constrained by the precise gravity field measurements by NASA's Juno mission, atmospheric data from the Galileo entry probe, and Voyager radio occultations. Not only are these observations few compared to the possible interior setups and their multiple controlling parameters, but they remain challenging to reconcile. As a complex, multidimensional problem, characterizing typical structures can help simplify the modeling process. We used NeuralCMS, a deep learning model based on the accurate concentric Maclaurin spheroid (CMS) method, coupled with a fully consistent wind model to efficiently explore a wide range of interior models without prior assumptions. We then identified those consistent with the measurements and clustered the plausible combinations of parameters controlling the interior. We determine the plausible ranges of internal structures and the dynamical contributions to Jupiter's gravity field. Four typical interior structures are identified, characterized by their envelope and core properties. This reduces the dimensionality of Jupiter's interior to only two effective parameters. Within the reduced 2D phase space, we show that the most observationally constrained structures fall within one of the key structures, but they require a higher 1 bar temperature than the observed value. We provide a robust framework for characterizing giant planet interiors with consistent wind treatment, demonstrating that for Jupiter, wind constraints strongly impact the gravity harmonics while the interior parameter distribution remains largely unchanged. Importantly, we find that Jupiter's interior can be described by two effective parameters that clearly distinguish the four characteristic structures and conclude that atmospheric measurements may not fully represent the entire envelope.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

Uranus Study Report: KISS

Determining the internal structure of Uranus is a key objective for planetary science. Knowledge of Uranus's bulk composition and the distribution of elements is crucial to understanding its origin and evolutionary path. In addition, Uranus represents a poorly understood class of intermediate-mass planets (intermediate in size between the relatively well studied terrestrial and gas giant planets), which appear to be very common in the Galaxy. As a result, a better characterization of Uranus will also help us to better understand exoplanets in this mass and size regime. Recognizing the importance of Uranus, a Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) workshop was held in September 2023 to investigate how we can improve our knowledge of Uranus's internal structure in the context of a future Uranus mission that includes an orbiter and a probe. The scientific goals and objectives of the recently released Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey were taken as our starting point. We reviewed our current knowledge of Uranus's interior and identified measurement and other mission requirements for a future Uranus spacecraft, providing more detail than was possible in the Decadal Survey's mission study and including new insights into the measurements to be made. We also identified important knowledge gaps to be closed with Earth-based efforts in the near term that will help guide the design of the mission and interpret the data returned.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Depth Dependent Dynamics Explain the Equatorial Jet Difference Between Jupiter and Saturn

Jupiter's equatorial eastward zonal flows reach wind velocities of ~100 m/s, while on Saturn they are three times as strong and extend about twice as wide in latitude, despite the two planets being overall dynamically similar. Recent gravity measurements obtained by the Juno and Cassini spacecraft uncovered that the depth of zonal flows on Saturn is about three times greater than on Jupiter. Here we show, using 3D deep convection simulations, that the atmospheric depth is the determining factor controlling both the strength and latitudinal extent of the equatorial zonal flows, consistent with the measurements for both planets. We show that the atmospheric depth is proportional to the convectively driven eddy momentum flux, which controls the strength of the zonal flows. These results provide a mechanistic explanation for the observed differences in the equatorial regions of Jupiter and Saturn, and offer new understandings about the dynamics of gas giants beyond the Solar System.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2024

NeuralCMS: A deep learning approach to study Jupiter's interior

NASA's Juno mission provided exquisite measurements of Jupiter's gravity field that together with the Galileo entry probe atmospheric measurements constrains the interior structure of the giant planet. Inferring its interior structure range remains a challenging inverse problem requiring a computationally intensive search of combinations of various planetary properties, such as the cloud-level temperature, composition, and core features, requiring the computation of ~10^9 interior models. We propose an efficient deep neural network (DNN) model to generate high-precision wide-ranged interior models based on the very accurate but computationally demanding concentric MacLaurin spheroid (CMS) method. We trained a sharing-based DNN with a large set of CMS results for a four-layer interior model of Jupiter, including a dilute core, to accurately predict the gravity moments and mass, given a combination of interior features. We evaluated the performance of the trained DNN (NeuralCMS) to inspect its predictive limitations. NeuralCMS shows very good performance in predicting the gravity moments, with errors comparable with the uncertainty due to differential rotation, and a very accurate mass prediction. This allowed us to perform a broad parameter space search by computing only ~10^4 actual CMS interior models, resulting in a large sample of plausible interior structures, and reducing the computation time by a factor of 10^5. Moreover, we used a DNN explainability algorithm to analyze the impact of the parameters setting the interior model on the predicted observables, providing information on their nonlinear relation.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Gas Giant Simulations of Eddy-Driven Jets Accompanied by Deep Meridional Circulation

Jupiter's atmosphere comprises several dynamical regimes: the equatorial eastward flows and surrounding retrograde jets; the midlatitudes, with the eddy-driven, alternating jet-streams and meridional circulation cells; and the jet-free turbulent polar region. Despite intensive research conducted on each of these dynamical regimes over the past decades, they remain only partially understood. Saturn's atmosphere also encompasses similar distinguishable regimes, but observational evidence for midlatitude deep meridional cells is lacking. Models offer a variety of explanations for each of these regions, but only a few are capable of simulating more than one of the regimes at once. This study presents new numerical simulations using a 3D deep anelastic model that can reproduce the equatorial flows as well as the midlatitudinal pattern of the mostly barotropic, alternating eddy-driven jets and the meridional circulation cells accompanying them. These simulations are consistent with recent Juno mission gravity and microwave data. We find that the vertical eddy momentum fluxes are as important as the meridional eddy momentum fluxes, which drive the midlatitudinal circulation on Earth. In addition, we discuss the parameters controlling the number of midlatitudinal jets/cells, their extent, strength, and location. We identify the strong relationship between meridional circulation and the zonal jets in a deep convection setup, and analyze the mechanism responsible for their generation and maintenance. The analysis presented here provides another step in the ongoing pursuit of understanding the deep atmospheres of gas giants.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The westward drift of Jupiter's polar cyclones explained by a center-of-mass approach

The first orbits around Jupiter of the Juno spacecraft in 2016 revealed a symmetric structure of multiple cyclones that remained stable over the next five years. Trajectories of individual cyclones indicated a consistent westward circumpolar motion around both poles. In this paper, we propose an explanation for this tendency using the concept of beta-drift and a "center-of-mass" approach. We suggest that the motion of these cyclones as a group can be represented by an equivalent sole cyclone, which is continuously pushed by beta-drift poleward and westward, embodying the westward motion of the individual cyclones. We support our hypothesis with 2D model simulations and observational evidence, demonstrating this mechanism for the westward drift. This study joins consistently with previous studies that revealed how aspects of these cyclones result from vorticity-gradient forces, shedding light on the physical nature of Jupiter's polar cyclones.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

Jupiter Science Enabled by ESA's Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer

ESA's Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) will provide a detailed investigation of the Jovian system in the 2030s, combining a suite of state-of-the-art instruments with an orbital tour tailored to maximise observing opportunities. We review the Jupiter science enabled by the JUICE mission, building on the legacy of discoveries from the Galileo, Cassini, and Juno missions, alongside ground- and space-based observatories. We focus on remote sensing of the climate, meteorology, and chemistry of the atmosphere and auroras from the cloud-forming weather layer, through the upper troposphere, into the stratosphere and ionosphere. The Jupiter orbital tour provides a wealth of opportunities for atmospheric and auroral science: global perspectives with its near-equatorial and inclined phases, sampling all phase angles from dayside to nightside, and investigating phenomena evolving on timescales from minutes to months. The remote sensing payload spans far-UV spectroscopy (50-210 nm), visible imaging (340-1080 nm), visible/near-infrared spectroscopy (0.49-5.56 $μ$m), and sub-millimetre sounding (near 530-625\,GHz and 1067-1275\,GHz). This is coupled to radio, stellar, and solar occultation opportunities to explore the atmosphere at high vertical resolution; and radio and plasma wave measurements of electric discharges in the Jovian atmosphere and auroras. Cross-disciplinary scientific investigations enable JUICE to explore coupling processes in giant planet atmospheres, to show how the atmosphere is connected to (i) the deep circulation and composition of the hydrogen-dominated interior; and (ii) to the currents and charged particle environments of the external magnetosphere. JUICE will provide a comprehensive characterisation of the atmosphere and auroras of this archetypal giant planet.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The Shape of Jupiter and Saturn Based on Atmospheric Dynamics, Radio Occultations and Gravity Measurements

The shape of the two gas giants, Jupiter and Saturn, is determined primarily by their rotation rate, and interior density distribution. It is also affected by their zonal winds, causing an anomaly of O(10 km) at low latitudes. However, uncertainties in the observed cloud-level wind and the polar radius, translate to an uncertainty in the shape with the same order of magnitude. The Juno (Jupiter) and Cassini (Saturn) missions gave unprecedented accurate gravity measurements, constraining better the uncertainty in the wind structure. Using an accurate shape calculation, and a joint optimization, given both gravity and radio-occultation measurements, we calculate the possible range of dynamical height for both planets. We find that for Saturn there is an excellent match to the radio-occultation measurements, while at Jupiter such a match is not achieved. This may point to deviations from a barotropic flow above the cloud level, which might be tested with the forthcoming radio-occultation measurements by Juno.

astro-ph.EP↗