arXiv subjects

Yohsuke Murase

Publications and source records attributed to Yohsuke Murase.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A model of local and global reciprocity

We often decide how to treat friends based on observations of their past behavior, whereas actions toward strangers are typically guided by their public reputations. These two kinds of information underlie two classical mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation$\unicode{x2014}$direct and indirect reciprocity$\unicode{x2014}$which have largely been studied in isolation. They are not interchangeable: we can recall the past actions of only a small circle of close contacts, whereas for the far larger pool of strangers we must rely on public reputations. Here we develop a mathematical framework built on this distinction. Each individual engages in direct reciprocity in local games within a finite neighborhood of friends, whose actions they observe directly, and in indirect reciprocity in global games with a large population of strangers, known only by reputation. Separating local and global interactions allows us to address two questions. First, can cooperation persist under a cognitively simple norm of judgment? We show that combining direct and indirect reciprocity resolves the scoring dilemma: conditional cooperators resist invasion by both unconditional cooperators and unconditional defectors, where indirect reciprocity alone would fail. Second, how should one treat a friend whose past behavior conflicts with their public reputation? We find that the strategies that maximize cooperation are forgiving$\unicode{x2014}$overlooking whichever piece of information is unfavorable$\unicode{x2014}$and that these forgiving strategies can often remain robust to invasion. By distinguishing between local and global scales of interaction and integrating information across them, our framework offers a more cognitively realistic account of how reciprocity sustains cooperation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Editorial Trajectories in Wikipedia Reflect Underlying Hyperlink Structure

Wikipedia hyperlinks have primarily been studied as navigational tools for readers, but their role in how information providers move between articles during editing remains less explored. Here, we combine the hyperlink network among English Wikipedia articles with editorial histories to examine how article-to-article structure is associated with editors' transitions between articles. We first address the temporal aspect of edit transitions by showing that transitions between hyperlinked article pairs have shorter inter-event times (IETs) than those between non-hyperlinked pairs, indicating that connected articles are effectively closer in editing sequences. We then turn to the structural organization of editing behavior by coarse-graining the hyperlink network into 19 topical communities and measuring editors' topical diversity. Finally, we bring the temporal and structural views together by comparing each editor's transition network with the corresponding hyperlink subnetwork using Jaccard similarity. Combining the measures allows us to distinguish three editor types: 'Specialists' are characterized by focused editing within limited topical domains and transition patterns more closely aligned with the hyperlink structure (low topical diversity, shorter mean IETs, and higher Jaccard similarity), whereas 'generalists' cover broader topics and show weaker similarity to the hyperlink structure (high topical diversity, longer mean IETs, and lower Jaccard similarity). 'Bots' show a distinct algorithm-driven behavior, with low Jaccard similarity and the shortest mean IETs, a combination departing from human-editor patterns despite their often high topical diversity. Such findings demonstrate that the hyperlink structure is not just a static scaffold for reader navigation, but is observationally linked to the sequential organization of editorial activity in collaborative knowledge systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Incomplete Reputation Information and Punishment in Indirect Reciprocity

Indirect reciprocity promotes cooperation by allowing individuals to help others based on reputation rather than direct reciprocation. Because it relies on accurate reputation information, its effectiveness can be undermined by information gaps. We examine two forms of incomplete information: incomplete observation, in which donor actions are observed only probabilistically, and reputation fading, in which recipient reputations are sometimes classified as "Unknown". Using analytical frameworks for public assessment, we show that these seemingly similar models yield qualitatively different outcomes. Under incomplete observation, the conditions for cooperation are unchanged, because less frequent updates are exactly offset by higher reputational stakes. In contrast, reputation fading hinders cooperation, requiring higher benefit-to-cost ratios as the identification probability decreases. We then evaluate costly punishment as a third action alongside cooperation and defection. Norms incorporating punishment can sustain cooperation across broader parameter ranges without reducing efficiency in the reputation fading model. This contrasts with previous work, which found punishment ineffective under a different type of information limitation, and highlights the importance of distinguishing between types of information constraints. Finally, we review past studies to identify when punishment is effective and when it is not in indirect reciprocity.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Exact conditions for evolutionary stability in indirect reciprocity under noise

Indirect reciprocity is a key mechanism for large-scale cooperation. This mechanism captures the insight that in part, people help others to build and maintain a good reputation. To enable such cooperation, appropriate social norms are essential. They specify how individuals should act based on each others' reputations, and how reputations are updated in response to individual actions. Although previous work has identified several norms that sustain cooperation, a complete analytical characterization of all evolutionarily stable norms remains lacking, especially when assessments or actions are noisy. In this study, we provide such a characterization for the public assessment regime. This characterization reproduces known results, such as the leading eight norms, but it extends to more general cases, allowing for various types of errors and additional actions including costly punishment. We also identify norms that impose a fixed payoff on any mutant strategy, analogous to the zero-determinant strategies in direct reciprocity. These results offer a rigorous foundation for understanding the evolution of cooperation through indirect reciprocity and the critical role of social norms.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

Indirect reciprocity under opinion synchronization

Indirect reciprocity is a key explanation for the exceptional magnitude of cooperation among humans. This literature suggests that a large proportion of human cooperation is driven by social norms and individuals' incentives to maintain a good reputation. This intuition has been formalized with two types of models. In public assessment models, all community members are assumed to agree on each others' reputations; in private assessment models, people may have disagreements. Both types of models aim to understand the interplay of social norms and cooperation. Yet their results can be vastly different. Public assessment models argue that cooperation can evolve easily, and that the most effective norms tend to be stern. Private assessment models often find cooperation to be unstable, and successful norms show some leniency. Here, we propose a model that can organize these differing results within a single framework. We show that the stability of cooperation depends on a single quantity: the extent to which individual opinions turn out to be correlated. This correlation is determined by a group's norms and the structure of social interactions. In particular, we prove that no cooperative norm is evolutionarily stable when individual opinions are statistically independent. These results have important implications for our understanding of cooperation, conformity, and polarization.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Costly punishment sustains indirect reciprocity under low defection detectability

Cooperation is fundamental to human societies, and indirect reciprocity, where individuals cooperate to build a positive reputation for future benefits, plays a key role in promoting it. Previous theoretical and experimental studies have explored both the effectiveness and limitations of costly punishment in sustaining cooperation. While empirical observations show that costly punishment by third parties is common, some theoretical models suggest it may not be effective in the context of indirect reciprocity, raising doubts about its potential to enhance cooperation. In this study, we theoretically investigate the conditions under which costly punishment is effective. Building on a previous model, we introduce a new type of error in perceiving actions, where defection may be mistakenly perceived as cooperation. This extension models a realistic scenario where defectors have a strong incentive to disguise their defection as cooperation. Our analysis reveals that when defection is difficult to detect, norms involving costly punishment can emerge as the most efficient evolutionarily stable strategies. These findings demonstrate that costly punishment can play a crucial role in promoting cooperation within indirect reciprocity.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Indirect reciprocity with stochastic rules

Cooperation is a crucial aspect of social life, yet understanding the nature of cooperation and how it can be promoted is an ongoing challenge. One mechanism for cooperation is indirect reciprocity. According to this mechanism, individuals cooperate to maintain a good reputation. This idea is embodied in a set of social norms called the ``leading eight''. When all information is publicly available, these norms have two major properties. Populations that employ these norms are fully cooperative, and they are stable against invasion by alternative norms. In this paper, we extend the framework of the leading eight in two directions. First, we allow social norms to be stochastic. Such norms allow individuals to evaluate others with certain probabilities. Second, we consider norms in which also the reputations of passive recipients can be updated. Using this framework, we characterize all evolutionarily stable norms that lead to full cooperation in the public information regime. When only the donor's reputation is updated, and all updates are deterministic, we recover the conventional model. In that case, we find two classes of stable norms: the leading eight and the `secondary sixteen'. Stochasticity can further help to stabilize cooperation when the benefit of cooperation is comparably small. Moreover, updating the recipients' reputations can help populations to recover more quickly from errors. Overall, our study highlights a remarkable trade-off between the evolutionary stability of a norm and its robustness with respect to errors. Norms that correct errors quickly require higher benefits of cooperation to be stable.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Grouping promotes both partnership and rivalry with long memory in direct reciprocity

Biological and social scientists have long been interested in understanding how to reconcile individual and collective interests in iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Many effective strategies have been proposed, and they are often categorized into one of two classes, `partners' and `rivals.' More recently, another class, `friendly rivals,' has been identified in longer-memory strategy spaces. Friendly rivals qualify as both partners and rivals: They fully cooperate with themselves, like partners, but never allow their co-players to earn higher payoffs, like rivals. Although they have appealing theoretical properties, it is unclear whether they would emerge in evolving population because most previous works focus on memory-one strategy space, where no friendly rival strategy exists. To investigate this issue, we have conducted large-scale evolutionary simulations in well-mixed and group-structured populations and compared the evolutionary dynamics between memory-one and memory-three strategy spaces. In a well-mixed population, the memory length does not make a major difference, and the key factors are the population size and the benefit of cooperation. Friendly rivals play a minor role because being a partner or a rival is often good enough in a given environment. It is in a group-structured population that memory length makes a stark difference: When memory-three strategies are available, friendly rivals become dominant, and the cooperation level nearly reaches a maximum, even when the benefit of cooperation is so low that cooperation would not be achieved in a well-mixed population. This result highlights the important interaction between group structure and memory lengths that drive the evolution of cooperation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Evolution of direct reciprocity in group-structured populations

People tend to have their social interactions with members of their own community. Such group-structured interactions can have a profound impact on the behaviors that evolve. Group structure affects the way people cooperate, and how they reciprocate each other's cooperative actions. Past work has shown that population structure and reciprocity can both promote the evolution of cooperation. Yet the impact of these mechanisms has been typically studied in isolation. In this work, we study how the two mechanisms interact. Using a game-theoretic model, we explore how people engage in reciprocal cooperation in group-structured populations, compared to well-mixed populations of equal size. To derive analytical results, we focus on two scenarios. In the first scenario, we assume a complete separation of time scales. Mutations are rare compared to between-group comparisons, which themselves are rare compared to within-group comparisons. In the second scenario, there is a partial separation of time scales, where mutations and between-group comparisons occur at a comparable rate. In both scenarios, we find that the effect of population structure depends on the benefit of cooperation. When this benefit is small, group-structured populations are more cooperative. But when the benefit is large, well-mixed populations result in more cooperation. Overall, our results reveal how group structure can sometimes enhance and sometimes suppress the evolution of cooperation.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

A second-order stability analysis for the continuous model of indirect reciprocity

Reputation is one of key mechanisms to maintain human cooperation, but its analysis gets complicated if we consider the possibility that reputation does not reach consensus because of erroneous assessment. The difficulty is alleviated if we assume that reputation and cooperation do not take binary values but have continuous spectra so that disagreement over reputation can be analysed in a perturbative way. In this work, we carry out the analysis by expanding the dynamics of reputation to the second order of perturbation under the assumption that everyone initially cooperates with good reputation. The second-order theory clarifies the difference between Image Scoring and Simple Standing in that punishment for defection against a well-reputed player should be regarded as good for maintaining cooperation. Moreover, comparison among the leading eight shows that the stabilizing effect of justified punishment weakens if cooperation between two ill-reputed players is regarded as bad. Our analysis thus explains how Simple Standing achieves a high level of stability by permitting justified punishment and also by disregarding irrelevant information in assessing cooperation. This observation suggests which factors affect the stability of a social norm when reputation can be perturbed by noise.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Evolution of global development cooperation: An analysis of aid flows with hierarchical stochastic block models

Despite considerable scholarly attention on the institutional and normative aspects of development cooperation, its longitudinal dynamics unfolding at the global level have rarely been investigated. Focusing on aid, we examine the evolving global structure of development cooperation induced by aid flows in its entirety. Representing annual aid flows between donors and recipients from 1970 to 2013 as a series of networks, we apply hierarchical stochastic block models to extensive aid-flow data that cover not only the aid behavior of the major OECD donors but also that of other emerging donors, including China. Despite a considerable degree of external expansion and internal diversification of aid relations over the years, the analysis has uncovered a temporally persistent structure of aid networks. The latter comprises, on the one hand, a limited number of major donors with far-reaching resources and, on the other hand, a large number of mostly poor but globally well-connected recipients. The results cast doubt on the efficacy of recurrent efforts for "aid reform" in substantially changing the global aid flow pattern.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Social norms in indirect reciprocity with ternary reputations

Indirect reciprocity is a key mechanism that promotes cooperation in social dilemmas by means of reputation. Although it has been a common practice to represent reputations by binary values, either `good' or `bad', such a dichotomy is a crude approximation considering the complexity of reality. In this work, we studied norms with three different reputations, i.e., `good', `neutral', and `bad'. Through massive supercomputing for handling more than thirty billion possibilities, we fully identified which norms achieve cooperation and possess evolutionary stability against behavioural mutants. By systematically categorizing all these norms according to their behaviours, we found similarities and dissimilarities to their binary-reputation counterpart, the leading eight. We obtained four rules that should be satisfied by the successful norms, and the behaviour of the leading eight can be understood as a special case of these rules. A couple of norms that show counter-intuitive behaviours are also presented. We believe the findings are also useful for designing successful norms with more general reputation systems.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Deep learning based parameter search for an agent based social network model

Interactions between humans give rise to complex social networks that are characterized by heterogeneous degree distribution, weight-topology relation, overlapping community structure, and dynamics of links. Understanding such networks is a primary goal of science due to serving as the scaffold for many emergent social phenomena from disease spreading to political movements. An appropriate tool for studying them is agent-based modeling, in which nodes, representing persons, make decisions about creating and deleting links, thus yielding various macroscopic behavioral patterns. Here we focus on studying a generalization of the weighted social network model, being one of the most fundamental agent-based models for describing the formation of social ties and social networks. This Generalized Weighted Social Network (GWSN) model incorporates triadic closure, homophilic interactions, and various link termination mechanisms, which have been studied separately in the previous works. Accordingly, the GWSN model has an increased number of input parameters and the model behavior gets excessively complex, making it challenging to clarify the model behavior. We have executed massive simulations with a supercomputer and using the results as the training data for deep neural networks to conduct regression analysis for predicting the properties of the generated networks from the input parameters. The obtained regression model was also used for global sensitivity analysis to identify which parameters are influential or insignificant. We believe that this methodology is applicable for a large class of complex network models, thus opening the way for more realistic quantitative agent-based modeling.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Local stability of cooperation in a continuous model of indirect reciprocity

Reputation is a powerful mechanism to enforce cooperation among unrelated individuals through indirect reciprocity, but it suffers from disagreement originating from private assessment, noise, and incomplete information. In this work, we investigate stability of cooperation in the donation game by regarding each player's reputation and behaviour as continuous variables. Through perturbative calculation, we derive a condition that a social norm should satisfy to give penalties to its close variants, provided that everyone initially cooperates with a good reputation, and this result is supported by numerical simulation. A crucial factor of the condition is whether a well-reputed player's donation to an ill-reputed co-player is appreciated by other members of the society, and the condition can be reduced to a threshold for the benefit-cost ratio of cooperation which depends on the reputational sensitivity to a donor's behaviour as well as on the behavioural sensitivity to a recipient's reputation. Our continuum formulation suggests how indirect reciprocity can work beyond the dichotomy between good and bad even in the presence of inhomogeneity, noise, and incomplete information.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Friendly-rivalry solution to the iterated $n$-person public-goods game

Repeated interaction promotes cooperation among rational individuals under the shadow of future, but it is hard to maintain cooperation when a large number of error-prone individuals are involved. One way to construct a cooperative Nash equilibrium is to find a `friendly-rivalry' strategy, which aims at full cooperation but never allows the co-players to be better off. Recently it has been shown that for the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma in the presence of error, a friendly rival can be designed with the following five rules: Cooperate if everyone did, accept punishment for your own mistake, punish defection, recover cooperation if you find a chance, and defect in all the other circumstances. In this work, we construct such a friendly-rivalry strategy for the iterated $n$-person public-goods game by generalizing those five rules. The resulting strategy makes a decision with referring to the previous $m=2n-1$ rounds. A friendly-rivalry strategy for $n=2$ inherently has evolutionary robustness in the sense that no mutant strategy has higher fixation probability in this population than that of a neutral mutant. Our evolutionary simulation indeed shows excellent performance of the proposed strategy in a broad range of environmental conditions when $n= 2$ and $3$.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Lockdowns need geographic coordination because of propagation of economic effects through supply chains

In order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, governments have often required regional or national lockdowns, which have caused extensive economic stagnation over broad areas as the shock of the lockdowns has diffused to other regions through supply chains. Using supply-chain data for 1.6 million firms in Japan, this study examines how governments can mitigate these economic losses when they are obliged to implement lockdowns. Through tests of all combinations of two-region lockdowns, we find that coordinated, i.e., simultaneous, lockdowns yield smaller GDP losses than uncoordinated lockdowns. Furthermore, we test practical scenarios in which Japan's 47 regions impose lockdowns over three months and find that GDP losses are lower if nationwide lockdowns are coordinated than if they are uncoordinated.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Do economic effects of the anti-COVID-19 lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains?

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, many cities, states, and countries have `locked down', restricting economic activities in non-essential sectors. Such lockdowns have substantially shrunk production in most countries. This study examines how the economic effects of lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains, a network of firms for production, simulating an agent-based model of production on supply-chain data for 1.6 million firms in Japan. We further investigate how the complex network structure affects the interactions of lockdowns, emphasising the role of upstreamness and loops by decomposing supply-chain flows into potential and circular flow components. We find that a region's upstreamness, intensity of loops, and supplier substitutability in supply chains with other regions largely determine the economic effect of the lockdown in the region. In particular, when a region lifts its lockdown, its economic recovery substantially varies depending on whether it lifts lockdown alone or together with another region closely linked through supply chains. These results propose the need for inter-region policy coordination to reduce the economic loss from lockdowns.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Automata representation of successful strategies for social dilemmas

In a social dilemma, cooperation is collectively optimal, yet individually each group member prefers to defect. A class of successful strategies of direct reciprocity were recently found for the iterated prisoner's dilemma and for the iterated three-person public-goods game: By a successful strategy, we mean that it constitutes a cooperative Nash equilibrium under implementation error, with assuring that the long-term payoff never becomes less than the co-players' regardless of their strategies, when the error rate is small. Although we have a list of actions prescribed by each successful strategy, the rationale behind them has not been fully understood for the iterated public-goods game because the list has hundreds of entries to deal with every relevant history of previous interactions. In this paper, we propose a method to convert such history-based representation into an automaton with a minimal number of states. Our main finding is that a successful strategy for the iterated three-person public-goods game can be represented as a $10$-state automaton by this method. In this automaton, each state can be interpreted as the player's internal judgement of the situation, such as trustworthiness of the co-players and the need to redeem oneself after defection. This result thus suggests a comprehensible way to choose an appropriate action at each step towards cooperation based on a situational judgement, which is mapped from the history of interactions.

q-bio.PE↗