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Yolanda Gomez

Publications and source records attributed to Yolanda Gomez.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

Forecasting Adversarial Actions Using Judgment Decomposition-Recomposition

In domains such as homeland security, cybersecurity and competitive marketing, it is frequently the case that analysts need to forecast adversarial actions that impact the problem of interest. Standard structured expert judgement elicitation techniques may fall short as they do not explicitly take into account intentionality. We present a decomposition technique based on adversarial risk analysis followed by a behavioral recomposition using discrete choice models that facilitate such elicitation process and illustrate its performance through behavioral experiments.

stat.ME

Integration of Behavioral Economic Models to Optimize ML performance and interpretability: a sandbox example

This paper presents a sandbox example of how the integration of models borrowed from Behavioral Economic (specifically Protection-Motivation Theory) into ML algorithms (specifically Bayesian Networks) can improve the performance and interpretability of ML algorithms when applied to Behavioral Data. The integration of Behavioral Economics knowledge to define the architecture of the Bayesian Network increases the accuracy of the predictions in 11 percentage points. Moreover, it simplifies the training process, making unnecessary training computational efforts to identify the optimal structure of the Bayesian Network. Finally, it improves the explicability of the algorithm, avoiding illogical relations among variables that are not supported by previous behavioral cybersecurity literature. Although preliminary and limited to 0ne simple model trained with a small dataset, our results suggest that the integration of behavioral economics and complex ML models may open a promising strategy to improve the predictive power, training costs and explicability of complex ML models. This integration will contribute to solve the scientific issue of ML exhaustion problem and to create a new ML technology with relevant scientific, technological and market implications.

econ.TH

A distance estimate based on angular expansion for the planetary nebula NGC 6881

In this paper, we report on high angular resolution radio observations of the planetary nebula NGC 6881 obtained with the Very Large Array at a wavelength of 6 cm. The emission appears to be the superposition of a roundish core and a point-symmetric bipolar structure elongated along a position angle of about 145$^\circ$. This is strongly reminiscent of the morphology seen in H$α$ and [NII] images. A comparison between VLA observations obtained in 1984 and 1994 clearly reveals the expansion of the core of the nebula, at a rate of 2.1 $\pm$ 0.7 mas yr$^{-1}$. Assuming that the expansion velocity in the plane of the sky (determined from these measurements) and the expansion velocity along the line of sight (estimated from optical spectroscopy available in the literature) are equal, we find a distance to NGC 6881 of 1.6 $\pm$ 0.5 kpc $\pm$ 0.3 kpc, where the first error reflects the uncertainty on the expansion, and the second error comes from the potential difference between pattern and material speeds. This distance is compatible with (but does not necessarily imply) an association of NGC 6881 with the nearby HII region Sh 2-109 and, more generally, the Cygnus star-forming region.

astro-ph.GA

Measurement of the Distance and Proper Motions of the H2O Masers in the Young Planetary Nebula K 3-35

In this paper we present the results of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) ob- servations carried out with the VLBI Exploration of Radio Astrometry (VERA) array and the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) toward H2O masers in a young planetary nebula K 3-35. From the VERA observations we measured the annual parallax and proper mo- tion of a bright water maser spot in K 3-35. The resulting distance is D = 3.9+0.7 kpc. -0.5 This is the first time that the parallax of a planetary nebula is obtained by observations of its maser emission. On the other hand, the proper motion of K 3-35 as a whole was esti- mated to be μα = -3.34+/-0.10 mas yr-1, μδ = -5.93+/-0.07 mas yr-1. From these results we determined the position and velocity of K 3-35 in Galactic cylindrical coordinates: (R,θ,z) = (7.11+0.08-0.06 kpc, 27+/-5{\circ}, 140+25-18 pc) and (VR, Vθ, Vz) = (33+/-16, 233+/-11, 11+/-2) km s-1, respectively. Additionally, from our VLBA observations we measured the relative proper motions among the water maser spots located in the central region of the nebula, which have been proposed to be tracing a toroidal structure. The distribution and relative proper motions of the masers, compared with previous reported observed epochs, suggest that such structure could be totally destroyed within a few years, due to the action of high velocity winds and the expansion of the ionization front in the nebula.

astro-ph.SR

An Expanding HI Photodissociated Region Associated with the Compact HII Region G213.880-11.837 in the GGD 14 Complex

We present high angular and spectral resolution HI 21~cm line observations toward the cometary-shaped compact HII region G213.880-11.837 in the GGD~14 complex.The kinematics and morphology of the photodissociated region, traced by the HI line emission, reveal that the neutral gas is part of an expanding flow. The kinematics of the HI gas along the major axis of G213.880-11.837 shows that the emission is very extended toward the SE direction, reaching LSR radial velocities in the tail of about 14 km/s. The ambient LSR radial velocity of the molecular gas is 11.5 km/s, which suggests a champagne flow of the HI gas. This is the second (after G111.61+0.37) cometary HII/HI region known.

astro-ph.GA

Compact radio sources in the vicinity of the ultracompact HII region G78.4+2.6

Using the Very Large Array (VLA) at 3.6~cm we identify four new compact radio sources in the vicinity of the cometary HII region G78.4+2.6 (VLA~1). The four compact radio sources (named VLA~2 to VLA~5), have near-infrared counterparts, as seen in the 3.6 $μ$m Spitzer image. One of them (VLA~5) clearly shows evidence of radio variability in a timescale of hours. We explore the possibility that these radio sources are associated with pre-main sequence (PMS) stars in the vicinity of the UC HII region G78.4+2.6. Our results favor the smaller distance value of 1.7 kpc for G78.4+2.6. In addition to the detection of the radio sources in the vicinity of G78.4+2.6, we detected another group of five sources which appear located about 3' to the northwest of the HII region. Some of them exhibit extended emission.

astro-ph.GA

On the Size of the Non-Thermal Component in the Radio Emission from Cyg OB2 #5

Cyg OB2 #5 is a contact binary system with variable radio continuum emission. This emission has a low-flux state where it is dominated by thermal emission from the ionized stellar wind and a high-flux state where an additional non-thermal component appears. The variations are now known to have a period of 6.7 +/- 0.2 yr. The non-thermal component has been attributed to different agents: an expanding envelope ejected periodically from the binary, emission from a wind-collision region, or a star with non-thermal emission in an eccentric orbit around the binary. The determination of the angular size of the non-thermal component is crucial to discriminate between these alternatives. We present the analysis of VLA archive observations made at 8.46 GHz in 1994 (low state) and 1996 (high state), that allow us to subtract the effect of the persistent thermal emission and to estimate an angular size of 0.02 arcseconds for the non-thermal component. This compact size favors the explanation in terms of a star with non-thermal emission or of a wind-collision region.

astro-ph.GA

H91$α$ Radio Recombination Line and 3.5 cm Continuum Observations of the Planetary Nebula NGC 3242

We present high sensitivity H91$α$ and 3.5 cm radio continuum observations toward the planetary nebula NGC 3242. The electron temperature determined assuming local thermodynamic equilibrium is consistent within $\sim$10% with that derived from optical lines and the Balmer discontinuity. The line emission and the continuum emission have very similar spatial distribution, suggesting that at this wavelength there is no other continuum process present in a significant manner. In particular, we conclude that emission from spinning dust is not important at this wavelength. In this radio recombination line the nebula presents a radial velocity structure consistent with that obtained from observations of optical lines.

astro-ph.GA

Expansion parallax of the planetary nebula IC 418

In this paper, we present radio continuum observations of the planetary nebula IC 418 obtained at two epochs separated by more than 20 years. These data allow us to show that the angular expansion rate of the ionization front in IC 418 is 5.8 $\pm$ 1.5 mas yr$^{-1}$. If the expansion velocity of the ionization front is equal to the expansion velocity of the gas along the line of sight as measured by optical spectroscopy, then the distance to IC 418 must be 1.1 $\pm$ 0.3 kpc. Recent theoretical predictions appropriate for the case of IC 418, however, suggest that the ionization front may be expanding about 20% faster than the material. Under this assumption, the distance to IC 418 would increase to 1.3 $\pm$ 0.4 kpc.

astro-ph.SR

A VLA Archive Observation of the Youngest Known Galactic Supernova Remnant G1.9+0.3

We present the analysis of an unpublished VLA archive observation made at 1.49 GHz in 1989 toward the supernova remnant G1.9+0.3, the youngest such Galactic object known. This observation agrees with the time evolution in angular size previously reported. We derive an expansion rate of 0.46 +- 0.11 % per year and an age of 220+45-70 yr for the remnant by comparing the 1985 and 1989 images.

astro-ph.GA

Radio interferometric observations of candidate water-maser-emitting planetary nebulae

We present Very Large Array (VLA) observations of H2O and OH masers, as well as radio continuum emission at 1.3 and 18 cm toward three sources previously cataloged as planetary nebulae (PNe) and in which single-dish detections of H2O masers have been reported: IRAS 17443-2949, IRAS 17580-3111, and IRAS 18061-2505. Our goal was to unambiguously confirm their nature as water-maser-emitting PNe, a class of objects of which only two bona-fide members were previously known. We detected and mapped H2O maser emission toward all three sources, while OH maser emission is detected in IRAS 17443-2949 and IRAS 17580-3111 as well as in other two objects within the observed fields: IRAS 17442-2942 (unknown nature) and IRAS 17579-3121 (also cataloged as a possible PN). We found radio continuum emission associated only with IRAS 18061-2505. Our results confirm IRAS 18061-2505 as the third known case of a PN associated with H2O maser emission. The three known water-maser-emitting PNe have clear bipolar morphologies, which suggests that water maser emission in these objects is related to non-spherical mass-loss episodes. We speculate that these bipolar PNe would have ``water-fountain'' Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) and post-AGB stars as their precursors. A note of caution is given for other objects that have been classified as OHPNe (objects with both OH maser and radio continuum emission, that could be extremely young PNe) based on single-dish observations, since interferometric data of both OH masers and continuum are necessary for a proper identification as members of this class.

astro-ph

Proper Motions of the Ansae in the Planetary Nebula NGC 7009

For the planetary nebula NGC 7009, we present a comparison of two unpublished Very Large Array archive data sets taken with a time separation of 8.09 years to confirm the proper motions of its ansae observed in the optical. We determine values of 23$\pm$6 and 34$\pm$10 mas yr$^{-1}$ for the eastern and western ansae, respectively. There is marginal evidence suggesting that the flux densities of the jets that connect the ansae with the main body of the nebula diminished in about 30% over the period between the two observations. We also set an upper limit to the expansion of the main body of the planetary nebula, setting a lower limit of $\sim$700 pc for its distance.

astro-ph

A survey for water maser emission towards planetary nebulae. New detection in IRAS 17347-3139

We report on a water maser survey towards a sample of 27 planetary nebulae (PNe) using the Robledo de Chavela and Medicina single-dish antennas, as well as the Very Large Array (VLA). Two detections have been obtained: the already known water maser emission in K 3-35, and a new cluster of masers in IRAS 17347-3139. This low rate of detections is compatible with the short life-time of water molecules in PNe (~100 yr). The water maser cluster at IRAS 17347-3139 are distributed on a ellipse of size ~ 0.2" x 0.1", spatially associated with compact 1.3 cm continuum emission (simultaneously observed with the VLA). From archive VLA continuum data at 4.9, 8.4, and 14.9 GHz, a spectral index alpha = 0.76 +- 0.03 is derived for this radio source, which is consistent with either a partially optically thick ionized region or with an ionized wind. However, the latter scenario can be ruled out on mass-loss considerations, thus indicating that this source is probably a young PN. The spatial distribution and the radial velocities of the water masers are suggestive of a rotating and expanding maser ring, tracing the innermost regions of a torus formed at the end of the AGB phase. Given that the 1.3 cm continuum emission peak is located near one of the tips of the major axis of the ellipse of masers, we speculate on a possible binary nature of IRAS 17347-3139, where the radio continuum emission could belong to one of the components and the water masers would be associated with a companion.

astro-ph

A Cluster of Compact Radio Sources in NGC 2024 (Orion B)

We present deep 3.6 cm radio continuum observations of the H II region NGC 2024 in Orion B obtained using the Very Large Array in its A-configuration, with $0\rlap.{''}2$ angular resolution. We detect a total of 25 compact radio sources in a region of $4' \times 4'$. We discuss the nature of these sources and its relation with the infrared and X-ray objects in the region. At least two of the radio sources are obscured proplyds whose morphology can be used to restrict the location of the main ionizing source of the region. This cluster of radio sources is compared with others that have been found in regions of recent star formation.

astro-ph

Morphological and kinematic signatures of a binary central star in the planetary nebula Hu 2-1

We present narrow-band optical images, VLA-A 3.6 cm continuum and H92alpha emission line data and high resolution long-slit [N II] spectra of Hu 2-1. The formation of Hu 2-1 appears dominated by anisotropic mass ejection during the late AGB stage of its progenitor and by variable, ``precessing'' collimated bipolar outflows during the proto-PN and/or early PN phases. The data strongly support the existence of a binary central star at center of Hu 2-1: (1) the brightness distribution of the bipolar lobes and inner shell is point-symmetric, and the bipolar lobes show departures from axial symmetry; (2) the position of the central star is off-center; (3) mass ejection towards the equatorial plane is detected; (4) ``precessing'' collimated outflows are present. Besides all this circumstantial evidences, the analysis of the kinematics shows that the systemic velocity of the bipolar outflows does not coincide with the systemic velocity of the nebula. We propose that this velocity difference is a direct evidence of orbital motion of the ejection source in a binary system. Assuming a reasonable range of masses for the progenitor stars, the orbital velocity of ~10 km/s corresponds to a semi-major axis of 9-27 AU and to a period of 25-80 yr. The formation of Hu 2-1 is analyzed within current scenarios of PN formation with binary central stars.

astro-ph