arXiv subjects

Yong Cai

Publications and source records attributed to Yong Cai.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Does p-Hacking Mitigate or Exacerbate the Effects of Publication Bias?

This paper studies the effects of p-hacking on the bias of published estimates when papers with statistically significant results are selectively published. We show that fast p-hacking---actions that lead to large changes in p-values---always exacerbates the bias from selective publication. On the other hand, slow p-hacking---actions that lead to small changes in p-values---exacerbates bias when selection is weak, but mitigates it when selection is strong. In a model featuring both types of p-hacking, we show that a normality assumption identifies the true distribution of effects as well as the counterfactual mean that would obtain under selective publication without p-hacking. Applying the model to meta-analyses on the effects of behavioral nudges and development aid, we find suggestive evidence that both mitigation and exacerbation can arise in practice.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Does Eternal Inflation Violate the Smeared Null Energy Condition?

The smeared null energy condition (SNEC) imposes a semilocal bound on the negative energy accumulated along null geodesics. In eternal inflation, rare stochastic upward fluctuations of the inflaton locally increase the Hubble parameter, creating an apparent tension with the SNEC. Focusing on a canonical single-field model, we investigate whether this quantum-induced self-reproduction violates the SNEC. Using the Fokker-Planck equation, we demonstrate that the ensemble drift of the Hubble parameter is parametrically bounded by slow-roll parameters and semiclassical suppression. Furthermore, a complementary single-trajectory analysis reveals a strong timescale hierarchy, $N_{\rm SNEC} \gg N_{\rm BR}$. This indicates that even for rare upward stochastic excursions, gravitational backreaction invalidates the background spacetime assumption long before the SNEC bound can be mathematically approached. We conclude that while standard stochastic diffusion drives eternal inflation, it does not inherently lead to SNEC violations within the semiclassical slow-roll regime.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

Gravitational Waves from Primordial Black Holes formed by Null Energy Condition Violation during Inflation

A transient violation of the null energy condition (NEC) during inflation provides a novel mechanism for producing primordial black holes (PBHs) and stochastic gravitational wave (GW) backgrounds. In this work, we extend previous studies by computing the GW contributions from both the ringdown phase of PBH formation and subsequent binary mergers. Our results show that this scenario produces a rich, multi-component GW spectrum consisting of primordial GWs, scalar-induced GWs, and GW emissions from PBH ringdown and binary mergers. We demonstrate that these correlated signatures across different frequency bands provide a novel and powerful avenue to probe or constrain NEC violation during inflation through future multi-band GW observations.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Constraints on Genesis Cosmology from the Smeared Null Energy Condition

The violation of the null energy condition (NEC) is essential for constructing nonsingular cosmological scenarios, such as Genesis cosmology, which avoids the initial singularity by initiating cosmic evolution from an asymptotically Minkowski state. To address theoretical concerns regarding the accumulation of negative energy, the smeared null energy condition (SNEC) has been proposed as a quantum-motivated, semi-local bound on NEC violation. In this work, we examine the implications of the SNEC conjecture for Genesis models, typically constructed within generalized Galileon theories. Our results demonstrate that SNEC imposes nontrivial restrictions on the viability of Genesis models, highlighting the SNEC conjecture as a powerful tool for constraining nonsingular cosmological scenarios.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Interactive Hybrid Rice Breeding with Parametric Dual Projection

Hybrid rice breeding crossbreeds different rice lines and cultivates the resulting hybrids in fields to select those with desirable agronomic traits, such as higher yields. Recently, genomic selection has emerged as an efficient way for hybrid rice breeding. It predicts the traits of hybrids based on their genes, which helps exclude many undesired hybrids, largely reducing the workload of field cultivation. However, due to the limited accuracy of genomic prediction models, breeders still need to combine their experience with the models to identify regulatory genes that control traits and select hybrids, which remains a time-consuming process. To ease this process, in this paper, we proposed a visual analysis method to facilitate interactive hybrid rice breeding. Regulatory gene identification and hybrid selection naturally ensemble a dual-analysis task. Therefore, we developed a parametric dual projection method with theoretical guarantees to facilitate interactive dual analysis. Based on this dual projection method, we further developed a gene visualization and a hybrid visualization to verify the identified regulatory genes and hybrids. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through the quantitative evaluation of the parametric dual projection method, identified regulatory genes and desired hybrids in the case study, and positive feedback from breeders.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

S-Crescendo: A Nested Transformer Weaving Framework for Scalable Nonlinear System in S-Domain Representation

Simulation of high-order nonlinear system requires extensive computational resources, especially in modern VLSI backend design where bifurcation-induced instability and chaos-like transient behaviors pose challenges. We present S-Crescendo - a nested transformer weaving framework that synergizes S-domain with neural operators for scalable time-domain prediction in high-order nonlinear networks, alleviating the computational bottlenecks of conventional solvers via Newton-Raphson method. By leveraging the partial-fraction decomposition of an n-th order transfer function into first-order modal terms with repeated poles and residues, our method bypasses the conventional Jacobian matrix-based iterations and efficiently reduces computational complexity from cubic $O(n^3)$ to linear $O(n)$.The proposed architecture seamlessly integrates an S-domain encoder with an attention-based correction operator to simultaneously isolate dominant response and adaptively capture higher-order non-linearities. Validated on order-1 to order-10 networks, our method achieves up to 0.99 test-set ($R^2$) accuracy against HSPICE golden waveforms and accelerates simulation by up to 18(X), providing a scalable, physics-aware framework for high-dimensional nonlinear modeling.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2025

Fusing Global and Local: Transformer-CNN Synergy for Next-Gen Current Estimation

This paper presents a hybrid model combining Transformer and CNN for predicting the current waveform in signal lines. Unlike traditional approaches such as current source models, driver linear representations, waveform functional fitting, or equivalent load capacitance methods, our model does not rely on fixed simplified models of standard-cell drivers or RC loads. Instead, it replaces the complex Newton iteration process used in traditional SPICE simulations, leveraging the powerful sequence modeling capabilities of the Transformer framework to directly predict current responses without iterative solving steps. The hybrid architecture effectively integrates the global feature-capturing ability of Transformers with the local feature extraction advantages of CNNs, significantly improving the accuracy of current waveform predictions. Experimental results demonstrate that, compared to traditional SPICE simulations, the proposed algorithm achieves an error of only 0.0098. These results highlight the algorithm's superior capabilities in predicting signal line current waveforms, timing analysis, and power evaluation, making it suitable for a wide range of technology nodes, from 40nm to 3nm.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2025

Null energy condition violation and beyond Horndeski physics in light of DESI DR2 data

Inflation and dark energy (DE), both featuring accelerated expansion, are crucial components of modern cosmology. As indicated by singularity theorems, null energy condition (NEC) violation is essential for resolving the initial singularity of inflation. The latest DESI DR2 results show that the DE equation of state evolves from $w_{\rm DE} < -1$ at redshift $z \lesssim 1$ to $w_{\rm DE} > -1$ today, reinforcing interest in testing NEC violation in the observable Universe. Within a unified effective field theory framework that applies to both inflation and DE, we use DESI DR2 data and a non-parametric reconstruction approach to test, for the first time, the ``beyond Horndeski'' physics known to support fully stable NEC violation in nonsingular cosmology. Therefore, our work provides a novel avenue to constrain the physics underlying NEC violation in a model agnostic way. It also highlights the potential relevance of NEC violation to both the primordial Universe and late-time cosmic acceleration.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Parity-violating primordial gravitational waves from null energy condition violation

We investigate the parity-violating effects in primordial gravitational waves (GWs) due to null energy condition (NEC) violation in two very early universe scenarios: bounce-inflation and intermediate NEC violation during inflation. In both scenarios, we numerically solve the power spectra of parity-violating primordial GWs generated by coupling the background field and the spectator field with the Nieh-Yan term, respectively. We find that the background field can significantly enhance parity-violating effects at scales corresponding to the maximum of the GW power spectra. In contrast, the parity-violating effects produced by the spectator show significantly weaker observability even if the coupling constant is large. Therefore, in NEC-violating scenarios, the significant observable parity-violating effects in primordial GWs primarily arise from the physics directly related to NEC violation. This result highlights the potential of primordial GWs as crucial tools for exploring NEC-violating and parity-violating physics.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Null energy condition violation during inflation and pulsar timing array observations

Recently, evidence of stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) signals observed by pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations, has prompted investigations into their origins. We explore the compatibility of a proposed inflationary scenario, incorporating an intermediate null energy condition (NEC)-violating phase, with the PTA observations. The NEC violation potentially amplifies the primordial tensor power spectrum, offering a promising explanation for PTA observations. Numerical analyses, primarily focused on NANOGrav's 15-year results, reveal the model's compatibility with PTA data. Notably, the model predicts a nearly scale-invariant GW spectrum in the mHz frequency range, which sets our scenario apart from other interpretations predicting a red primordial GW spectrum on smaller scales.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Generating enhanced primordial GWs during inflation with intermittent violation of NEC and diminishment of GW propagating speed

We investigate both the null energy condition (NEC) violating scenario and the $c_T$-diminishing scenario for generating enhanced power spectrum of primordial gravitational waves (GWs) during inflation, where $c_T$ is the propagating speed of primordial GWs. Both of these two scenarios can be realized stably with theories beyond Horndeski, hence can be uniformly implemented within the framework of the effective field theory. We calculate the power spectrum of primordial GWs by assuming that the inflationary Universe undergoes three phases, where the violation of NEC or the diminishment of $c_T$ occurs in the intermediate phase. A template of the spectrum is given for the NEC-violating scenario. We also discuss the underlying relation and discrepancy between these two scenarios with a disformal transformation.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Primordial black holes from null energy condition violation during inflation

Primordial black holes (PBHs) and the violation of the null energy condition (NEC) have significant implications for our understanding of the very early universe. We present a novel approach to generate PBHs via the NEC violation in a single-field inflationary scenario. In our scenario, the universe transitions from a first slow-roll inflation stage with a Hubble parameter $H = H_{\text{inf}1}$ to a second slow-roll inflation stage with $H = H_{\text{inf}2}\gg H_{\text{inf}1}$, passing through an intermediate stage of NEC violation. The NEC violation naturally enhances the primordial scalar power spectrum at a certain wavelength, leading to the production of PBHs with masses and abundances of observational interest. We also investigate the phenomenological signatures of scalar-induced gravitational waves (SIGWs) resulting from the enhanced density perturbations. Our work highlights the potential of utilizing a combination of PBHs, SIGWs, and primordial gravitational waves as a valuable probe for studying NEC violation during inflation, opening up new avenues for exploring the early universe.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

On the Performance of the Neyman Allocation with Small Pilots

The Neyman Allocation is used in many papers on experimental design, which typically assume that researchers have access to large pilot studies. This may be unrealistic. To understand the properties of the Neyman Allocation with small pilots, we study its behavior in an asymptotic framework that takes pilot size to be fixed even as the size of the main wave tends to infinity. Our analysis shows that the Neyman Allocation can lead to estimates of the ATE with higher asymptotic variance than with (non-adaptive) balanced randomization. In particular, this happens when the outcome variable is relatively homoskedastic with respect to treatment status or when it exhibits high kurtosis. We provide a series of empirical examples showing that such situations can arise in practice. Our results suggest that researchers with small pilots should not use the Neyman Allocation if they believe that outcomes are homoskedastic or heavy-tailed. Finally, we examine some potential methods for improving the finite sample performance of the FNA via simulations.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Climbing over the potential barrier during inflation via null energy condition violation

The violation of the null energy condition (NEC) may play a crucial role in enabling a scalar field to climb over high potential barriers, potentially significant in the very early universe. We propose a single-field model where the universe sequentially undergoes a first stage of slow-roll inflation, NEC violation, and a second stage of slow-roll inflation. Through the NEC violation, the scalar field climbs over high potential barriers, leaving unique characteristics on the primordial gravitational wave power spectrum, including a blue-tilted nature in the middle-frequency range and diminishing oscillation amplitudes at higher frequencies. Additionally, the power spectrum exhibits nearly scale-invariant behavior on both large and small scales.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Regression Discontinuity Design with Spillovers

This paper studies regression discontinuity designs (RDD) when linear-in-means spillovers occur between units that are close in their running variable. We show that the RDD estimand depends on the ratio of two terms: (1) the radius over which spillovers occur and (2) the choice of bandwidth used for the local linear regression. RDD estimates direct treatment effect when radius is of larger order than the bandwidth and total treatment effect when radius is of smaller order than the bandwidth. When the two are of similar order, the RDD estimand need not have a causal interpretation. To recover direct and spillover effects in the intermediate regime, we propose to incorporate estimated spillover terms into local linear regression. Our estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal and we provide bias-aware confidence intervals for direct treatment effects and spillovers. In the setting of Gonzalez (2021), we detect endogenous spillovers in voter fraud during the 2009 Afghan Presidential election. We also clarify when the donut-hole design addresses spillovers in RDD.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

FedFixer: Mitigating Heterogeneous Label Noise in Federated Learning

Federated Learning (FL) heavily depends on label quality for its performance. However, the label distribution among individual clients is always both noisy and heterogeneous. The high loss incurred by client-specific samples in heterogeneous label noise poses challenges for distinguishing between client-specific and noisy label samples, impacting the effectiveness of existing label noise learning approaches. To tackle this issue, we propose FedFixer, where the personalized model is introduced to cooperate with the global model to effectively select clean client-specific samples. In the dual models, updating the personalized model solely at a local level can lead to overfitting on noisy data due to limited samples, consequently affecting both the local and global models' performance. To mitigate overfitting, we address this concern from two perspectives. Firstly, we employ a confidence regularizer to alleviate the impact of unconfident predictions caused by label noise. Secondly, a distance regularizer is implemented to constrain the disparity between the personalized and global models. We validate the effectiveness of FedFixer through extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. The results demonstrate that FedFixer can perform well in filtering noisy label samples on different clients, especially in highly heterogeneous label noise scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Broken blue-tilted inflationary gravitational waves: a joint analysis of NANOGrav 15-year and BICEP/Keck 2018 data

Recently, the pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations have reported the evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) at nano-Hertz band. The spectrum of inflationary gravitational wave (IGW) is unknown, which might exhibit different power law at different frequency-bands, thus if the PTA signal is primordial, it will be significant to explore the underlying implications of current PTA and CMB data on IGW. In this paper, we perform a joint Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis for a broken power-law spectrum of IGW with the NANOGrav 15-year and BICEP/Keck 2018 data. It is found that though the bestfit spectral tilt of IGW at PTA band is $n^\text{PTA}_\text{T} =2.42^{+0.32}_{-0.91}$, at CMB band the bestfit is $n^\text{CMB}_\text{T} =0.55^{+0.37}_{-0.10}$ while a detectable amplitude of $r$ with $n^\text{CMB}_\text{T} \simeq 0$ is still compatible. The implication of our results for inflation is also discussed.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Some Finite Sample Properties of the Sign Test

This paper contains two finite-sample results concerning the sign test. First, we show that the sign-test is unbiased with independent, non-identically distributed data for both one-sided and two-sided hypotheses. The proof for the two-sided case is based on a novel argument that relates the derivatives of the power function to a regular bipartite graph. Unbiasedness then follows from the existence of perfect matchings on such graphs. Second, we provide a simple theoretical counterexample to show that the sign test over-rejects when the data exhibits correlation. Our results can be useful for understanding the properties of approximate randomization tests in settings with few clusters.

econ.EM↗