Revisiting the Independence Assumption in LEO Satellite-to-Ground Optical Links: A State-Coupled Joint Fading Model
Performance analysis of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite-to-ground optical links relies on composite fading models that typically evaluate scintillation and angular loss under the assumption of statistical independence. While ensuring analytical tractability, this assumption decouples fading mechanisms driven by the same atmospheric turbulence and fails to capture the distinct effects of free atmosphere (FA) and boundary layer (BL) perturbations. To model this coupling while preserving tractability, this paper develops a state-coupled joint fading model. In the proposed framework, aperture-averaged scintillation and effective angular loss are jointly characterized by a discrete slow atmospheric state, parameterized by separate FA and BL scaling factors. By replacing unconditional independence with state-conditioned independence, the model enables a closed-form derivation of the outage probability, preserving the computational simplicity of the independent baseline. Numerical results show that the independent baseline can misestimate outage under non-nominal layered turbulence states. This outage prediction bias varies with elevation because the relative roles of scintillation and angular loss change with the link geometry, resulting in different residual angular correction requirements for a given outage target.