arXiv subjects

Yongquan Qu

Publications and source records attributed to Yongquan Qu.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Video Diffusion for Satellite-based High-Dynamical-Fidelity Precipitation (HiDFiP) Field Generation

High spatiotemporal fidelity precipitation products that accurately capture storm spatial organization, propagation, and lifecycle evolution, are essential for advancing hydrometeorological research and operations at regional and global scales. Satellite products offer the only near-global precipitation observations, but they still fall short of reproducing the spatiotemporal structure of ground-based references, due largely to dynamic distortions from the inhomogeneity, intermittency, and indirectness of satellite retrievals. Here we propose a video-diffusion framework for satellite-based High-Dynamical-Fidelity Precipitation (HiDFiP) field generation beyond the space-time coverage of ground-radar, using radar-rich CONUS as a testbed. The framework performs explicit spatiotemporal modeling with IMERG as the primary source and leverages four-dimensional storm-environment information from about 40 ERA5/ERA5-Land atmospheric/land fields to compensate for the temporal information deficit inherent to satellite retrievals. We introduce an extensive metric suite to assess HiDFiP dynamical fidelity in temporal-reconstruction and spatial-transfer settings against MRMS ground-radar precipitation over CONUS. Relative to IMERG and image-wise diffusion baselines, HiDFiP accurately reproduces the storm space-time spectral characteristics; storm timing, location, and directional propagation; precipitation-event episodicity and temporal structure; precipitation-system morphology and spatial organization; and storm-track kinematics and lifecycle evolution. Transferability experiments indicate that HiDFiP generalizes reasonably well to an unseen region. This work advances a video-diffusion paradigm for satellite-based high-spatiotemporal-fidelity precipitation generation and provides an algorithmic and diagnostic foundation for long-term global radar-grade precipitation records.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Learning more physically realistic dynamics in machine-learning based weather forecasting with latent-space constraints

Data-driven machine learning (ML) models are reshaping weather forecasting and have shown the potential to accelerate and surpass traditional physics-based approaches, leading to a second revolution in the field after data assimilation. However, most ML forecast models are trained with weighted variable-wise losses on rollout forecasts that neglect cross-variable and spatial error covariance induced by physical coupling, often yielding overly smooth and physically unrealistic long-range forecasts. To address this, we reformulate model training as a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) problem that treats reanalysis data as imperfect observations. This enables the loss function to incorporate cross-variable error covariance structures that capture multivariate dependencies and their associated errors. In practice, we approximate this objective by computing the loss in an autoencoder-learned latent space of global atmospheric states. By encoding complex nonlinear couplings among atmospheric variables, this representation allows the high-dimensional, complex error covariance matrix in model space to be approximated as nearly diagonal in latent space, substantially simplifying implementation. We show that rollout training with latent-space constraints improves long-term forecast skill, while better preserving fine-scale structures and physical realism than the widely used model-space loss. Finally, we extend this framework to accommodate heterogeneous data sources, enabling the forecast model to be trained jointly on reanalysis and multi-source observations within a unified theoretical formulation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Strictly Constrained Generative Modeling via Split Augmented Langevin Sampling

Deep generative models hold great promise for representing complex physical systems, but their deployment is currently limited by the lack of guarantees on the physical plausibility of the generated outputs. Ensuring that known physical constraints are enforced is therefore critical when applying generative models to scientific and engineering problems. We address this limitation by developing a principled framework for sampling from a target distribution while rigorously satisfying mathematical constraints. Leveraging the variational formulation of Langevin dynamics and Lagrangian duality, we propose Constrained Alternated Split Augmented Langevin (CASAL), a novel primal-dual sampling algorithm that enforces constraints progressively through variable splitting. We analyze our algorithm in Wasserstein space and derive explicit mixing time rates. While the method is developed theoretically for Langevin dynamics, we demonstrate its applicability to diffusion models. We apply our method to diffusion-based data assimilation on a complex physical system, where enforcing physical constraints substantially improves both forecast accuracy and the preservation of critical conserved quantities. We also demonstrate the potential of CASAL for challenging non-convex feasibility problems in optimal control.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

PnP-DA: Towards Principled Plug-and-Play Integration of Variational Data Assimilation and Generative Models

Earth system modeling presents a fundamental challenge in scientific computing: capturing complex, multiscale nonlinear dynamics in computationally efficient models while minimizing forecast errors caused by necessary simplifications. Even the most powerful AI- or physics-based forecast system suffer from gradual error accumulation. Data assimilation (DA) aims to mitigate these errors by optimally blending (noisy) observations with prior model forecasts, but conventional variational methods often assume Gaussian error statistics that fail to capture the true, non-Gaussian behavior of chaotic dynamical systems. We propose PnP-DA, a Plug-and-Play algorithm that alternates (1) a lightweight, gradient-based analysis update (using a Mahalanobis-distance misfit on new observations) with (2) a single forward pass through a pretrained generative prior conditioned on the background forecast via a conditional Wasserstein coupling. This strategy relaxes restrictive statistical assumptions and leverages rich historical data without requiring an explicit regularization functional, and it also avoids the need to backpropagate gradients through the complex neural network that encodes the prior during assimilation cycles. Experiments on standard chaotic testbeds demonstrate that this strategy consistently reduces forecast errors across a range of observation sparsities and noise levels, outperforming classical variational methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Physically Consistent Global Atmospheric Data Assimilation with Machine Learning in Latent Space

Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations with model forecasts to produce optimized atmospheric states, whose physical consistency is critical for stable weather forecasting and reliable climate research. Traditional Bayesian DA methods enforce these nonlinear, flow-dependent physical constraints through empirical and tunable covariance structures, but with limited accuracy and robustness. Here, we introduce Latent Data Assimilation (LDA), a framework that performs Bayesian DA in a latent space learned from multivariate global atmospheric data via an autoencoder. We demonstrate that the autoencoder can largely capture nonlinear physical relationships, enabling LDA to produce balanced analyses without explicitly modeling physical constraints. Assimilation in latent space also improves both analysis quality and forecast skill compared to traditional model-space DA, under both idealized and real observational settings. Furthermore, LDA exhibits strong robustness across latent dimensions and remains effective even when the autoencoder is trained on inaccurate but physically realistic forecasts, highlighting its flexibility for real-world applications.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster preparedness and robust decision making amidst climate change. Yet, forecasting beyond the weather timescale is challenging because it deals with problems other than initial condition, including boundary interaction, butterfly effect, and our inherent lack of physical understanding. At present, existing benchmarks tend to have shorter forecasting range of up-to 15 days, do not include a wide range of operational baselines, and lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a challenging benchmark to extend the predictability range of data-driven weather emulators to S2S timescale. First, ChaosBench is comprised of variables beyond the typical surface-atmospheric ERA5 to also include ocean, ice, and land reanalysis products that span over 45 years to allow for full Earth system emulation that respects boundary conditions. We also propose physics-based, in addition to deterministic and probabilistic metrics, to ensure a physically-consistent ensemble that accounts for butterfly effect. Furthermore, we evaluate on a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from four national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart such as ViT/ClimaX, PanguWeather, GraphCast, and FourCastNetV2. Overall, we find methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fail on S2S task: their performance simply collapse to an unskilled climatology. Nonetheless, we outline and demonstrate several strategies that can extend the predictability range of existing weather emulators, including the use of ensembles, robust control of error propagation, and the use of physics-informed models. Our benchmark, datasets, and instructions are available at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Deep Generative Data Assimilation in Multimodal Setting

Robust integration of physical knowledge and data is key to improve computational simulations, such as Earth system models. Data assimilation is crucial for achieving this goal because it provides a systematic framework to calibrate model outputs with observations, which can include remote sensing imagery and ground station measurements, with uncertainty quantification. Conventional methods, including Kalman filters and variational approaches, inherently rely on simplifying linear and Gaussian assumptions, and can be computationally expensive. Nevertheless, with the rapid adoption of data-driven methods in many areas of computational sciences, we see the potential of emulating traditional data assimilation with deep learning, especially generative models. In particular, the diffusion-based probabilistic framework has large overlaps with data assimilation principles: both allows for conditional generation of samples with a Bayesian inverse framework. These models have shown remarkable success in text-conditioned image generation or image-controlled video synthesis. Likewise, one can frame data assimilation as observation-conditioned state calibration. In this work, we propose SLAMS: Score-based Latent Assimilation in Multimodal Setting. Specifically, we assimilate in-situ weather station data and ex-situ satellite imagery to calibrate the vertical temperature profiles, globally. Through extensive ablation, we demonstrate that SLAMS is robust even in low-resolution, noisy, and sparse data settings. To our knowledge, our work is the first to apply deep generative framework for multimodal data assimilation using real-world datasets; an important step for building robust computational simulators, including the next-generation Earth system models. Our code is available at: https://github.com/yongquan-qu/SLAMS

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Joint Parameter and Parameterization Inference with Uncertainty Quantification through Differentiable Programming

Accurate representations of unknown and sub-grid physical processes through parameterizations (or closure) in numerical simulations with quantified uncertainty are critical for resolving the coarse-grained partial differential equations that govern many problems ranging from weather and climate prediction to turbulence simulations. Recent advances have seen machine learning (ML) increasingly applied to model these subgrid processes, resulting in the development of hybrid physics-ML models through the integration with numerical solvers. In this work, we introduce a novel framework for the joint estimation of physical parameters and machine learning parameterizations with uncertainty quantification. Our framework incorporates online training and efficient Bayesian inference within a high-dimensional parameter space, facilitated by differentiable programming. This proof of concept underscores the substantial potential of differentiable programming in synergistically combining machine learning with differential equations, thereby enhancing the capabilities of hybrid physics-ML modeling.

cs.LG↗