arXiv subjects

Yongwen Zhang

Publications and source records attributed to Yongwen Zhang.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Scaling-law-informed neural point processes for earthquake sequence forecasting

Earthquake sequence forecasting requires models that can learn nonlinear history dependence while retaining robust statistical structure. We develop a scaling-law-informed neural marked point process, termed Fusion, that combines neural representations of catalog history with temporal features derived from the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model and magnitude information derived from the Gutenberg--Richter law. The model separates the magnitude cutoff applied to the input catalog from the fixed target-event threshold, allowing lower-magnitude earthquakes to inform forecasts without changing the target-event set. For the 2016--2017 Amatrice--Visso--Norcia sequence, Fusion achieves the highest target-event temporal likelihood when lower-magnitude events are retained, outperforming both ETAS and a purely neural point-process baseline. Event-wise and cumulative analyses show sustained timing gains through substantial portions of the Visso and Norcia sequences. Across five benchmark catalogs, catalog-specific neural training with a fixed ETAS prior yields the highest temporal likelihood at the minimum evaluated magnitude cutoff. Magnitude likelihood shows no consistent predictive gain beyond the Gutenberg--Richter-based ETAS reference, indicating that the additional information captured by Fusion is primarily temporal. These results show that lower-magnitude catalog histories and empirical scaling-law information complement neural sequence learning for target-event timing.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2026

Finite-Response Complementarity in Fluctuation Constraints on Climate Sensitivity

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a zero-frequency susceptibility, whereas historical globalmean temperature variability samples a finite, forced projection of the climate system. We test whether information missed by a scalar fluctuation-memory coordinate reappears in a finite CO2 response. After conditioning both ECS and the finite response on Ψ, CMIP5 residuals are nearly uncoupled (C5 = 0.154), whereas CMIP6 shows strong complementarity (C6 = 0.593, p = 0.00288). A two-mode stochastic response model attributes this contrast to hidden-response spread that is visible in the finite response but poorly projected onto Ψ. The CMIP6 residual direction defines a first-order correction and yields a HadCRUT5 conditional ECS estimate centered at 3.00 K. Thus the weakened CMIP6 fluctuation constraint does not imply that susceptibility information is lost: part of it is recovered through a complementary finite-response projection.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Criticality and reduced dynamical resilience in PM2.5 pollution systems

Concentration-based metrics underpin air-quality assessment, while dynamical persistence and recovery describe how rapidly high-PM2.5 episodes dissipate and how strongly they retain memory. Here we introduce a finite-memory multiplicative reversion (FMMR) process that links the lognormal concentration backbone of PM2.5 variability with event recurrence, temporal memory, variance amplification and local dynamical resilience. Across station observations and reanalysis data, elevated PM2.5 regimes show a coherent set of critical signatures: stronger memory, rising autocorrelation, broader upper tails, amplified variance, reduced resilience and more clustered exceedance events. Together, these co-occurring signals reveal dynamical criticality in PM2.5 pollution systems, with critical slowing down expressed as a loss of restoring capacity under high-pollution conditions. A gridded comparison across populated and emission-influenced regions further shows that areas with similar PM2.5 burden can differ in recovery capacity, while eastern China has shifted toward higher resilience during recent air-quality improvements and India and West Africa occupy lower-resilience states. By identifying where pollution burden and recovery capacity diverge, these findings establish dynamical persistence and resilience as complementary dimensions of PM2.5 risk and provide a quantitative basis for resilience-oriented air-quality assessment.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Spectral condensation in a finite nonequilibrium atmospheric transition

Order parameters are difficult to define in high-dimensional nonequilibrium systems that lack a Hamiltonian, a thermodynamic limit or an observed control coordinate. Here we show that such transitions can be diagnosed from the spectrum of occupations over data-derived eigen-microstates. We combine Eigen Microstate Theory with a Marchenko--Pastur random-matrix baseline to isolate an emergent sector, whose entropy quantifies competition among statistically significant collective states. As a finite atmospheric realization, we analyse 51 sudden stratospheric warmings in ERA5. The event-aligned ensemble undergoes spectral condensation, decondensation and recondensation: a polar-vortex state dominated by a few eigen-microstates gives way to a high-entropy regime of competing emergent states before selecting a reorganized weak-vortex state. A stochastic wave--mean-flow model, in which upward wave-activity flux provides a reduced control coordinate, reproduces the same entropy maximum, collapse and top-down timing. These results identify emergent-sector entropy as an order-parameter-like, state-based spectral diagnostic for non-Hamiltonian transitions and place polar-vortex breakdown within a broader class of finite nonequilibrium phase reorganizations.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability

The dynamical basis of stratospheric polar vortex predictability remains unclear, particularly the relative roles of persistence, structural variability, and cross-level coupling. Here we provide a state-resolved and quantitative framework using eigen microstate theory applied to ERA5 geopotential height fields, enabling attribution of predictability to dynamically coherent circulation states via a mesoscopic Granger-causality approach. We show that short-term predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading stratospheric state, whereas extended predictability arises from higher-order stratospheric structures and tropospheric variability. These contributions exhibit strong lead-time dependence and become more distributed during sudden stratospheric warming events. Our results unify SPV predictability within a multimodal, state-resolved framework and provide a physically interpretable pathway for improving subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

A Regime Shift in Atlantic Surface Currents Reveals a Step-like Decline of the Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly understood. Here we identify a previously unrecognized basin scale phase of Atlantic surface circulation, termed the Atlantic Convergence Divergence Mode (ACDM), characterized by a convergence divergence pattern in the North Atlantic and coherent meridional flows in the South Atlantic. We show that the ACDM experienced a pronounced regime shift in 2009, marked by weakened vertical water exchange and reduced meridional transport. This transition closely coincides with direct RAPID MOCHA AMOC observations and is driven by AMOC modulated multicale forcing: a low frequency oceanic thermal reorganization that preconditions the system, and episodic atmospheric shocks that trigger the shift. By identifying the ACDM variability as a sensitive and physically grounded proxy for interannual AMOC fluctuations, we reveal that the observed 2009 shift signifies a nonlinear, step like weakening of AMOC that triggered a fundamental basin scale reorganization of Atlantic surface currents. Our results offer a dynamical explanation for the AMOC's recent decline and demonstrate its inherently nonlinear nature, highlighting the need to account for step like transitions in assessing its stability and future evolution.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Warming-driven rise in soil moisture entropy signals destabilization of the Asian Water Tower

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the "Asian Water Tower," is currently undergoing a rapid wetting trend. While this moisture increase is often viewed as beneficial for water availability, it remains unclear whether the hydrological system itself is becoming more resilient or drifting toward instability. Here, we apply an entropy-based framework to quantify the changing structural organization of the TP's soil moisture system. We show that from 2000 to 2024, regional wetting has driven a long-term decline in entropy, reflecting an increase in system order and stability due to enhanced hydrological buffering capacity. This stability is modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which regulates regional heterogeneity via a distinct spatial dipole. Crucially, however, CMIP6 climate projections reveal an alarming reversal: future warming triggers a rise in entropy. This transition signals a loss of systemic resilience, characterized by intensified spatial disorder and potential abrupt regime shifts by the mid-century. Our findings suggest that while current wetting provides a stabilizing buffer, continued warming is projected to amplify spatial heterogeneity, thereby destabilizing the Asian Water Tower, with significant risks for downstream water security.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Phase transition revealed by eigen microstate entropy

We introduce the eigen microstate entropy ($S_{\text{EM}}$), a novel metric of complexity derived from the probabilities of statistically independent eigen microstates. After establishing its scaling behavior in equilibrium systems and demonstrating its utility in critical phenomena (mean spherical, Ising, and Potts models), we apply $S_{\text{EM}}$ to non-equilibrium complex systems. Our analysis reveals a consistent precursor signal: a significant increase in $S_{\text{EM}}$ precedes major phase transitions. Specifically, we observe this entropy rise before biomolecular condensate formation in liquid-liquid phase separation in living cells and months ahead of El Niño events. These findings position $S_{\text{EM}}$ as a general framework for detecting and interpreting phase transitions in non-equilibrium systems.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2025

A Revisit of Large-Scale Patterns in Middle Stratospheric Circulation Variations

Variations in stratospheric atmospheric circulation significantly influence tropospheric weather and climate, and understanding these variations can guide stratospheric aircraft development and operations. Despite a century of progress, large-scale patterns in stratospheric circulation remain poorly understood due to the stratosphere's complex nature. To address this, we applied the eigen microstate approach (EMA) to analyze zonal wind from 70-10 hPa using ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980-2022. We focused on the three leading modes, corresponding to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratospheric circulation in the Arctic and Antarctic. After removing high-frequency components, we observed a significant 11-year cycle in the Antarctic stratospheric circulation mode, possibly linked to the solar cycle. In contrast, the Arctic mode showed a 5-6-year cycle without 11-year periodicity. This difference likely arises from the seasonal timing of polar vortex breakdowns: the Antarctic vortex persists into late spring and summer, making it more sensitive to solar radiation, while the Arctic vortex peaks in winter and early spring. The fourth mode showed features of a Southern Hemisphere dipole and was significantly correlated with the Antarctic mode, leading it by about two months. Finally, we developed a linear prediction model that demonstrated predictive skill for the Antarctic polar vortex.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

Eigenstates in the self-organised criticality

We employ the eigen microstate approach to explore the self-organized criticality (SOC) in two celebrated sandpile models, namely, the BTW model and the Manna model. In both models, phase transitions from the absorbing-state to the critical state can be understood by the emergence of dominant eigen microstates with significantly increased weights. Spatial eigen microstates of avalanches can be uniformly characterized by a linear system size rescaling. The first temporal eigen microstates reveal scaling relations in both models. Furthermore, by finite-size scaling analysis of the first eigen microstate, we numerically estimate critical exponents i.e., $\sqrt{σ_0 w_1}/\tilde{v}_{1} \propto L^D$ and $\tilde{v}_{1} \propto L^{D(1-τ_s)/2}$. Our findings could provide profound insights into eigen states of the universality and phase transition in non-equilibrium complex systems governed by self-organized criticality.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Regional Greening as a `Positive' Tipping Phenomenon

Earth system tipping elements have been predominantly investigated for their potential to trigger \textit{negative} ecological, climatic, and societal shifts. Yet, an overlooked but seminal avenue exists in the form of \textit{positive} tipping phenomena, whose underlying mechanisms and benefits remain largely underexplored. To bridge this gap, our research introduces a fundamental percolation-based framework to assess the criticality and resilience of planetary terrestrial vegetation systems. Leveraging high-resolution satellite data, we focus on greening-induced positive tipping dynamics driven by global warming. We feature the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and the Sahel region as contrasting yet analogous case studies. Our analysis uncovers an intriguing phenomenon where vegetation fragmentation aligns with a percolation threshold, exhibiting a scale-invariant pattern characterized by nearly perfect power laws with three critical exponents. Remarkably, contrary to conventional destructive tipping elements, these regions act as favorable tipping elements, transitioning from fragmented to cohesive vegetation patterns due to anthropogenic climate change and afforestation efforts. Furthermore, we propose an \textit{optimal resilience enhancement model} to reinforce vegetation robustness while minimizing socio-economic costs. This study provides valuable insights into the favorable aspects of tipping elements under climate change and offers effective strategies for enhancing ecological resilience against environmental threats.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

Reduced seismic activity after mega earthquakes

Mainshocks are often followed by increased earthquake activity (aftershocks). According to the Omori-Utsu law, the rate of aftershocks decays as a power law over time. While aftershocks typically occur in the vicinity of the mainshock, previous studies have suggested that mainshocks can also trigger earthquakes in remote locations. Here we examine the earthquake rate in the days following mega-earthquakes (magnitude >= 7.5) and find that the rate is significantly lower beyond a certain distance from the epicenter compared to surrogate data. However, the remote earthquake rate after the strongest earthquakes (magnitude >= 8) can also be significantly higher than that of the rate based on surrogate data. Comparing our findings to the global ETAS model, we find that the model does not capture the earthquake rate found in the data, hinting at a potential missing mechanism. We suggest that the diminished earthquake rate is due the release of global energy/tension subsequent to substantial mainshock events. This conjecture holds the potential to enhance our comprehension of the intricacies governing post-seismic activity.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2023

A combining earthquake forecasting model between deep learning and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model

The scientific process of earthquake forecasting involves estimating the probability and intensity of earthquakes in a specific area within a certain timeframe, based on seismic activity laws and observational data. Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models, which rely on seismic empirical laws, is one of the most commonly used methods for earthquake forecasting. However, it underestimates feature in short-term time scale and overestimates in long-term time scale. Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM), has emerged as a promising approach capable of extracting spatio-temporal features. Hence, we propose a novel composite model named CL-ETAS model, which combines the strengths of ConvLSTM and ETAS model. We conduct experimental verification on real seismic data in Southern California. Our results show that CL-ETAS model outperforms both ETAS model and ConvLstm in accurately forecasting the number of earthquake events, their magnitude, and spatial distribution. Additionally, CL-ETAS model demonstrates notable enhancements in forecast stability and interpretability. These results offer valuable insights and recommendations for future earthquake forecasting endeavors.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2021

Asymmetry in earthquake interevent time intervals

Here we focus on a basic statistical measure of earthquake catalogs that has not been studied before, the asymmetry of interevent time series (e.g., reflecting the tendency to have more aftershocks than spontaneous earthquakes). We define the asymmetry metric as the ratio between the number of positive interevent time increments minus negative increments and the total (positive plus negative) number of increments. Such asymmetry commonly exists in time series data for non-linear geophysical systems like river flow which decays slowly and increases rapidly. We find that earthquake interevent time series are significantly asymmetric, where the asymmetry function exhibits a significant crossover to weak asymmetry at large lag-index. We suggest that the Omori law can be associated with the large asymmetry at short time intervals below the crossover whereas overlapping aftershock sequences and the spontaneous events can be associated with a fast decay of asymmetry above the crossover. We show that the asymmetry is better reproduced by a recently modified ETAS model with two triggering processes in comparison to the standard ETAS model which only has one.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2021

Eigen Microstates and Their Evolution of Global Ozone at Different Geopotential Heights

Studies on stratospheric ozone have attracted much attention due to its serious impacts on climate changes and its important role as a tracer of Earth's global circulation. Tropospheric ozone as a main atmospheric pollutant damages human health as well as the growth of vegetation. Yet there is still a lack of a theoretical framework to fully describe the variation of ozone. To understand ozone's spatiotemporal variance, we introduce the eigen microstate method to analyze the global ozone mass mixing ratio (OMMR) between 1979-01-01 and 2020-06-30 at 37 pressure layers. We find that eigen microstates at different geopotential heights can capture different climate phenomena and modes. Without deseasonalization, the first eigen microstates capture the seasonal effect and reveal that the phase of the intra-annual cycle moves with the geopotential heights. After deseasonalization, by contrast, the collective patterns from the overall trend, ENSO, QBO, and tropopause pressure are identified by the first few significant eigen microstates. The theoretical framework proposed here can also be applied to other complex Earth systems.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2020

Intra-annual Principal Modes and Evolution Mechanism of the El Nino Southern Oscillation

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important phenomena in climate. By studying the fluctuations of surface air temperature within one year between 1979-01-01 and 2016-12-31 of the region (30S-30N, 0E-360E) with eigen-decomposition, we find that the temperature fluctuations are dominated by the two principal modes whose temporal evolutions respond significantly to the ENSO variability. According to introduce a micro-correlation, we find that the coupling between the first principal mode and the temperature fluctuations in the El Nino region could result in different ENSO phases. Without this coupling, the El Nino region is in a normal phase. With the strong coupling between the El Nino region and the Northern Hemisphere, an El Nino event will appear with a high probability. Then this coupling changes to be strong between the El Nino region and the Southern Hemisphere accounting for the fast decay of El Nino after boreal winter, even leading to a La Nina event. Moreover, the coupling between the El Nino region and the second principal mode is found to be strong in normal or La Nina phases in response to the normal or strong Walker Circulations. We conjecture that the temporal evolutions of these couplings for the first and second principal modes are controlled by the meridional and zonal ocean-atmospheric circulations respectively.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Improved Earthquake Forecasting Model Based on Long-term Memory in Earthquake

A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake empirical laws. Yet, a recent study showed that the ETAS model fails in reproducing significant long-term memory characteristics found in real earthquake catalogs. Here we modify and generalize the ETAS model to include short- and long-term triggering mechanisms, to account for the short- and long-time memory (exponents) recently discovered in the data. Our generalized ETAS model reproduces accurately the short- and long-term/distance memory observed in the Italian and South California earthquake catalogs. The revised ETAS model is also found to significantly improve earthquake forecasting.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2019

Scaling Laws in Earthquake Memory for Interevent Times and Distances

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake predictability is partly due to the erratic nature of earthquakes and partly to the lack of understanding the underlying mechanisms of earthquakes. To improve our understanding and potential forecasting, here we study the spatial and temporal long-term memory of interevent earthquakes above a certain magnitude using lagged conditional probabilities. We find, in real data, that the lagged conditional probabilities show long-term memory for both the interevent times and interevent distances and that the memory functions obey scaling and decay slowly with time, while, at a characteristic time, the decay crossesover to a fast decay. We also show that the ETAS model, which is often used to forecast earthquake events, yields scaling functions of the temporal and spatial interevent intervals which are not consistent with those of real data.

physics.soc-ph↗