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Yoon Kim

Publications and source records attributed to Yoon Kim.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Making Alternative Data Work: Context-Augmented LLMs for Financial Forecasting

When forecasting a firm's future financial performance, alternative data - data collected from non-traditional sources such as consumer transactions, web traffic, and prediction markets - can provide timely signals about firms' operating activities and broader market conditions. These signals may reveal information that is not captured by traditional public sources and can therefore provide complementary information for forecasting firms' future financial performance. However, firm-level alternative data often have limited historical coverage, are relevant only to specific prediction targets or subsets of firms, and are distributed across numerous heterogeneous channels, making them difficult to incorporate flexibly into conventional forecasting approaches. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) can interpret instructions, learn from in-context examples, and generate predictions by combining heterogeneous information without task-specific parameter updates. Motivated by this potential flexibility, we investigate whether an LLM can forecast firm performance by integrating alternative data with other financial information through in-context learning. We propose a two-agent framework that first identifies the firms for which each alternative data channel is likely to be informative and then predicts revenue using firm- and channel-specific context. We evaluate the framework across four commercial alternative data channels. In our experiments, adding alternative data in context alongside other financial information improves the LLM's forecasting relative to either source alone, and these forecasts are more accurate than those of standard forecasting baselines. These findings suggest that LLMs provide a flexible and practical approach to integrating alternative data with heterogeneous financial information.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Your AI, On a Dial: Controlling Investment Bias in LLMs with a Single Neuron

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in investment decision-making, yet prior work shows that they exhibit systematic, model-specific investment preferences. We study whether a model's overall investment stance can be calibrated to a specified direction and strength. We introduce an investment-bias dial, an inference-time intervention on a single neuron that continuously adjusts a model-level decision prior---its overall tendency toward buying or selling---without targeting specific firms or investment attributes. Using matched positive and negative evidence, we evaluate five open-weight LLMs and find that the dial produces monotonic changes in investment stance without modifying prompts or model parameters. At the response level, the dial shifts both investment decisions and the evidential emphasis of generated rationales under identical inputs. In an agentic retrieval setting, the dial also changes what information the model searches for, which evidence it selects, and which evidence is reflected in its final analysis. In a long-context evaluation, the dial maintains stable stance control as context length increases, whereas a matched system-prompt instruction progressively attenuates. We further show that changes in the dial propagate to security rankings and downstream portfolio composition in an exploratory backtest. Overall, our results show that an LLM's aggregate investment stance can be calibrated toward a specified target at inference time.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

FaciliTrain: Practicing Facilitation Skills through AI-Simulated Group Dialogue

Skilled facilitation supports inclusive small-group dialogue, but deliberate practice is hard to scale: it depends on expert coaches, live practice partners, and iterative feedback. We present FaciliTrain, a voice-based training system in which learners step into the facilitator role of an AI-simulated multi-participant conversation, apply five evidence-based techniques, and receive structured AI feedback to support reflection. We report findings from a mixed-methods study with 24 participants, conducted as a formative study (N = 12) and a controlled pilot (N = 12; 6 treatment, 6 control). Both conditions achieved comparable accuracy on a live evaluation task, though treatment participants' self-rated comfort declined significantly while control participants' comfort improved (p = .018). Reflexive thematic analysis identifies four themes: the taxonomy externalizes implicit facilitation intuitions; Making Connections is the most cognitively demanding technique; voice acts as a deliberate-response forcing function; and participants overwhelmingly preferred AI feedback over self-practice. We discuss design implications for voice-based, AI-supported interpersonal skill training at scale.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2026

Learning User Simulators with Turing Rewards

Learning to simulate human users in interactive settings could advance the training of agent assistants, evaluation of personalization systems, research in the social sciences, and more. Existing approaches generally do so by training a large language model (LLM) to match a single ground truth response, either by maximizing the log probability or by using a similarity reward. We instead propose Turing-RL: a Turing-Test-based reinforcement learning approach for training user simulator models. Turing-RL uses a discriminative Turing reward with an LLM judge to score how indistinguishable a generated response is from the real user's given the user's history, and the user simulator LLM learns to produce responses indistinguishable from what the user could have said with such rewards. Across two different domains--conversational chat and Reddit forum discussion--we find that Turing-RL consistently outperforms baseline methods on both LLM and human evaluation metrics. Our study suggests that optimizing for indistinguishability, rather than response matching, is effective for learning user simulators.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Variable-Width Transformers

Scaling model size, specifically depth and width, has driven significant progress in transformer-based language models. However, most architectures maintain a constant width across all layers, allocating a fixed parameter and computation budget evenly despite different layers potentially playing distinct computational roles. In this work, we empirically investigate nonuniform capacity allocation across network depth by proposing a $\times$-shaped > <former consistently outperforms parameter-matched uniform baselines on language modeling loss. By reducing the average layer width, this architecture also requires fewer overall FLOPs (22% reduction under fitted loss-matched scaling curves) and smaller KV cache memory and I/O cost (15% reduction). In analysis, we show that this bottleneck structure results in qualitatively different representations in residual streams. Overall, our results demonstrate that nonuniform width allocation can result in more resource-optimal scaling of language models.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Dynamic Short Convolutions Improve Transformers

Transformers have become the dominant architecture for large language models, largely due to the scalability and flexibility of attention, feed-forward layers, residual connections, and normalization. This paper introduces dynamic short convolutions as an additional neural network primitive for improving Transformers. Unlike static short convolutions, dynamic convolutions use input-dependent filters, which preserves the locality bias of convolution while increasing expressivity. Motivating experiments show that applying dynamic short convolutions to key, query, and value representations improves performance on challenging associative recall tasks compared with static convolutional variants. Across language-modeling experiments ranging from 150M to 2B parameters, dynamic convolutions consistently outperform standard Transformers and Transformers augmented with static short convolutions. Fitting scaling laws indicates a 1.33$\times$ compute advantage over compute-matched Transformers when dynamic convolutions are applied to the key, query, and value vectors, and a 1.60$\times$ advantage when adding dynamic convolutions after every linear layer. Dynamic convolutions also offer improvements on linear RNNs (Mamba-2/Gated DeltaNet) and mixture-of-experts architectures. We make these gains practical with custom Triton kernels that enable efficient training with a manageable end-to-end slowdown. These results suggest that dynamic short convolutions are a scalable, hardware-efficient, and expressive primitive for advancing Transformer-based language models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

CODA: Rewriting Transformer Blocks as GEMM-Epilogue Programs

Transformer training systems are built around dense linear algebra, yet a nontrivial fraction of end-to-end time is spent on surrounding memory-bound operators. Normalization, activations, residual updates, reductions, and related computations repeatedly move large intermediate tensors through global memory while performing little arithmetic, making data movement an increasingly important bottleneck in otherwise highly optimized training stacks. We introduce CODA, a GPU kernel abstraction that expresses these computations as GEMM-plus-epilogue programs. CODA is based on the observation that many Transformer operators exposed as separate framework kernels can be algebraically reparameterized to execute while a GEMM output tile remains on chip, before it is written to memory. The abstraction fixes the GEMM mainloop and exposes a small set of composable epilogue primitives for scaling, reductions, pairwise transformations, and accumulation. This constrained interface preserves the performance structure of expert-written GEMMs while remaining expressive enough to cover nearly all non-attention computation in the forward and backward pass of a standard Transformer block. Across representative Transformer workloads, both human- and LLM-authored CODA kernels achieve high performance, suggesting that GEMM-plus-epilogue programming offers a practical path toward combining framework-level productivity with hardware-level efficiency.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ELF: Embedded Language Flows

Diffusion and flow-based models have become the de facto approaches for generating continuous data, e.g., in domains such as images and videos. Their success has attracted growing interest in applying them to language modeling. Unlike their image-domain counterparts, today's leading diffusion language models (DLMs) primarily operate over discrete tokens. In this paper, we show that continuous DLMs can be made effective with minimal adaptation to the discrete domain. We propose Embedded Language Flows (ELF), a class of diffusion models in continuous embedding space based on continuous-time Flow Matching. Unlike existing DLMs, ELF predominantly stays within the continuous embedding space until the final time step, where it maps to discrete tokens using a shared-weight network. This formulation makes it straightforward to adapt established techniques from image-domain diffusion models, e.g., classifier-free guidance (CFG). Experiments show that ELF substantially outperforms leading discrete and continuous DLMs, achieving better generation quality with fewer sampling steps. These results suggest that ELF offers a promising path toward effective continuous DLMs.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Implicit Representations of Grammaticality in Language Models

Grammaticality and likelihood are distinct notions in human language. Pretrained language models (LMs), which are probabilistic models of language fitted to maximize corpus likelihood, generate grammatically well-formed text and discriminate well between grammatical and ungrammatical sentences in tightly controlled minimal pairs. However, their string probabilities do not sharply discriminate between grammatical and ungrammatical sentences overall. But do LMs implicitly acquire a grammaticality distinction distinct from string probability? We explore this question through studying internal representations of LMs, by training a linear probe on a dataset of grammatical and (synthetic) ungrammatical sentences obtained by applying perturbations to a naturalistic text corpus. We find that this simple grammaticality probe generalizes to human-curated grammaticality judgment benchmarks and outperforms LM probability-based grammaticality judgments. When applied to semantic plausibility benchmarks, in which both members of a minimal pair are grammatical and differ in only plausibility, the probe however performs worse than string probability. The English-trained probe also exhibits nontrivial cross-lingual generalization, outperforming string probabilities on grammaticality benchmarks in numerous other languages. Additionally, probe scores correlate only weakly with string probabilities. These results collectively suggest that LMs acquire to some extent an implicit grammaticality distinction within their hidden layers.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

FlowBot: Inducing LLM Workflows with Bilevel Optimization and Textual Gradients

LLM workflows, which coordinate structured calls to individual LLMs/agents to achieve a particular goal, offer a promising path towards building powerful AI systems that can tackle diverse tasks. However, existing approaches for building such workflows generally rely on human-crafted pipelines and prompts, which presents a substantial bottleneck in real world deployment. How can we automatically induce LLM-based agents and workflows in a data-driven way? This paper describes a simple data-driven approach for automatically inducing agents and LLM workflows. We formulate workflow induction as a bilevel optimization problem: an outer loop which optimizes a high-level sketch of the workflow (in particular how the LLM calls should be structured), and an inner loop which optimizes each individual LLM call one-by one. Both loops are optimized with ``textual gradients'' where for the inner loop we optimize each component in a modular way through ``backpropagating'' textual gradients layer-by-layer. We find that LLM workflows discovered through our \textsc{FlowBot} (work\textbf{flow} induction through \textbf{b}ilevel \textbf{o}ptimization and \textbf{t}extual gradients) approach performs competitively against strong baselines that make use of human-crafted or generated workflows.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Hyperloop Transformers

LLM architecture research generally aims to maximize model quality subject to fixed compute/latency budgets. However, many applications of interest such as edge and on-device deployment are further constrained by the model's memory footprint, thus motivating parameter-efficient architectures for language modeling. This paper describes a simple architecture that improves the parameter-efficiency of LLMs. Our architecture makes use of looped Transformers as a core primitive, which reuse Transformer layers across depth and are thus more parameter-efficient than ordinary (depth-matched) Transformers. We organize the looped Transformer into three blocks--begin, middle, and end blocks--where each block itself consists of multiple Transformer layers, and only the middle block is applied recurrently across depth. We augment the looped middle block with hyper-connections (Xie et al., 2026), which expand the residual stream into matrix-valued residual streams. Hyper-connections are applied only after each loop, and therefore add minimal new parameters and compute cost. Across various model scales, we find that our Hyper-Connected Looped Transformer (Hyperloop Transformer) is able to perform well compared to depth-matched Transformer and mHC Transformer baselines despite using approximately 50% fewer parameters. This performance persists through post-training weight quantization, thus positioning Hyperloop Transformers as an attractive architecture for memory-efficient language modeling.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Parallel-SFT: Improving Zero-Shot Cross-Programming-Language Transfer for Code RL

Modern language models demonstrate impressive coding capabilities in common programming languages (PLs), such as C++ and Python, but their performance in lower-resource PLs is often limited by training data availability. In principle, however, most programming skills are universal across PLs, so the capability acquired in one PL should transfer to others. In this work, we propose the task of zero-shot cross-programming-language transfer for code RL. We find that, for Llama-3.1, RL training for code generation in a source PL fails to improve, and sometimes even degrades, the performance on other target PLs. To address this, we hypothesize that effective RL transfer requires a generalizable SFT initialization before RL. We thus propose **Parallel-SFT**, an SFT strategy that incorporates "parallel programs" -- functionally equivalent code implemented in multiple PLs -- into the data mixture. We demonstrate that this improves transferability: when we subsequently perform RL on our Parallel-SFT model, we observe better generalization to unseen PLs. Analysis of the model internal representations reveals that Parallel-SFT leads to a more functionality-centric latent space, where equivalent programs across PLs are more tightly clustered, which we hypothesize to contribute to the improved transferability.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Reaching Beyond the Mode: RL for Distributional Reasoning in Language Models

Given a question, a language model (LM) implicitly encodes a distribution over possible answers. In practice, post-training procedures for LMs often collapse this distribution onto a single dominant mode. While this is generally not a problem for benchmark-style evaluations that assume one correct answer, many real-world tasks inherently involve multiple valid answers or irreducible uncertainty. Examples include medical diagnosis, ambiguous question answering, and settings with incomplete information. In these cases, we would like LMs to generate multiple plausible hypotheses, ideally with confidence estimates for each one, and without computationally intensive repeated sampling to generate non-modal answers. This paper describes a multi-answer reinforcement learning approach for training LMs to perform distributional reasoning over multiple answers during inference. We modify the RL objective to enable models to explicitly generate multiple candidate answers in a single forward pass, internalizing aspects of inference-time search into the model's generative process. Across question-answering, medical diagnostic, and coding benchmarks, we observe improved diversity, coverage, and set-level calibration scores compared to single answer trained baselines. Models trained with our approach require fewer tokens to generate multiple answers than competing approaches. On coding tasks, they are also substantially more accurate. These results position multi-answer RL as a principled and compute-efficient alternative to inference-time scaling procedures such as best-of-k. Code and more information can be found at https://multi-answer-rl.github.io/.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Reverso: Efficient Time Series Foundation Models for Zero-shot Forecasting

Learning time series foundation models has been shown to be a promising approach for zero-shot time series forecasting across diverse time series domains. Insofar as scaling has been a critical driver of performance of foundation models in other modalities such as language and vision, much recent work on time series foundation modeling has focused on scaling. This has resulted in time series foundation models with hundreds of millions of parameters that are, while performant, inefficient and expensive to use in practice. This paper describes a simple recipe for learning efficient foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting that are orders of magnitude smaller. We show that large-scale transformers are not necessary: small hybrid models that interleave long convolution and linear RNN layers (in particular DeltaNet layers) can match the performance of larger transformer-based models while being more than a hundred times smaller. We also describe several data augmentation and inference strategies that further improve performance. This recipe results in Reverso, a family of efficient time series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting that significantly push the performance-efficiency Pareto frontier.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Fast KV Compaction via Attention Matching

Scaling language models to long contexts is often bottlenecked by the size of the key-value (KV) cache. In deployed settings, long contexts are typically managed through compaction in token space via summarization. However, summarization can be highly lossy, substantially harming downstream performance. Recent work on Cartridges has shown that it is possible to train highly compact KV caches in latent space that closely match full-context performance, but at the cost of slow and expensive end-to-end optimization. This work describes an approach for fast context compaction in latent space through Attention Matching, which constructs compact keys and values to reproduce attention outputs and preserve attention mass at a per-KV-head level. We show that this formulation naturally decomposes into simple subproblems, some of which admit efficient closed-form solutions. Within this framework, we develop a family of methods that significantly push the Pareto frontier of compaction time versus quality, achieving up to 50x compaction in seconds on some datasets with little quality loss.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Cross-Sectional Asset Retrieval via Future-Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning

Asset retrieval--finding similar assets in a financial universe--is central to quantitative investment decision-making. Existing approaches define similarity through historical price patterns or sector classifications, but such backward-looking criteria provide no guarantee about future behavior. We argue that effective asset retrieval should be future-aligned: the retrieved assets should be those most likely to exhibit correlated future returns. To this end, we propose Future-Aligned Soft Contrastive Learning (FASCL), a representation learning framework whose soft contrastive loss uses pairwise future return correlations as continuous supervision targets. We further introduce an evaluation protocol designed to directly assess whether retrieved assets share similar future trajectories. Experiments on 4,229 US equities demonstrate that FASCL consistently outperforms 13 baselines across all future-behavior metrics. The source code will be available soon.

cs.CE↗
arXiv2026

LLM as a Risk Manager: LLM Semantic Filtering for Lead-Lag Trading in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets provide a unique setting where event-level time series are directly tied to natural-language descriptions, yet discovering robust lead-lag relationships remains challenging due to spurious statistical correlations. We propose a hybrid two-stage causal screener to address this challenge: (i) a statistical stage that uses Granger causality to identify candidate leader-follower pairs from market-implied probability time series, and (ii) an LLM-based semantic stage that re-ranks these candidates by assessing whether the proposed direction admits a plausible economic transmission mechanism based on event descriptions. Because causal ground truth is unobserved, we evaluate the ranked pairs using a fixed, signal-triggered trading protocol that maps relationship quality into realized profit and loss (PnL). On Kalshi Economics markets, our hybrid approach consistently outperforms the statistical baseline. Across rolling evaluations, the win rate increases from 51.4% to 54.5%. Crucially, the average magnitude of losing trades decreases substantially from 649 USD to 347 USD. This reduction is driven by the LLM's ability to filter out statistically fragile links that are prone to large losses, rather than relying on rare gains. These improvements remain stable across different trading configurations, indicating that the gains are not driven by specific parameter choices. Overall, the results suggest that LLMs function as semantic risk managers on top of statistical discovery, prioritizing lead-lag relationships that generalize under changing market conditions.

q-fin.RM↗
arXiv2026

Forecasting Future Language: Context Design for Mention Markets

Mention markets, a type of prediction market in which contracts resolve based on whether a specified keyword is mentioned during a future public event, require accurate probabilistic forecasts of keyword-mention outcomes. While recent work shows that large language models (LLMs) can generate forecasts competitive with human forecasters, it remains unclear how input context should be designed to support accurate prediction. In this paper, we study this question through experiments on earnings-call mention markets, which require forecasting whether a company will mention a specified keyword during its upcoming call. We run controlled comparisons varying (i) which contextual information is provided (news and/or prior earnings-call transcripts) and (ii) how \textit{market probability}, (i.e., prediction market contract price) is used. We introduce Market-Conditioned Prompting (MCP), which explicitly treats the market-implied probability as a prior and instructs the LLM to update this prior using textual evidence, rather than re-predicting the base rate from scratch. In our experiments, we find three insights: (1) richer context consistently improves forecasting performance; (2) market-conditioned prompting (MCP), which treats the market probability as a prior and updates it using textual evidence, yields better-calibrated forecasts; and (3) a mixture of the market probability and MCP (MixMCP) outperforms the market baseline. By dampening the LLM's posterior update with the market prior, MixMCP yields more robust predictions than either the market or the LLM alone.

q-fin.GN↗