arXiv subjects

Yoontae Hwang

Publications and source records attributed to Yoontae Hwang.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

From Forecasts to Auditable Reports: Evidence Contracts for LLM-Assisted Housing-Guarantee Risk Monitoring

Translating next-month housing-guarantee risk forecasts into auditable operational reports is essential yet challenging because upper-tail events are sparse, source records are confidential, and generated narratives can distort the underlying evidence. Using monthly South Korean \textit{jeonse} deposit guarantee data from September 2015 to December 2025, we introduce an evidence-constrained reporting pipeline that prioritizes upper-tail monitoring, retrieves historical precedents aligned with the forecasting rationale, organizes admissible information into typed evidence contracts, and verifies generated claims before analyst review. We train and select the forecasting backbone on the original panel, whereas the reporting experiments use synthetic aggregate scenarios calibrated to its empirical ranges and temporal structure. The selected forecasting model substantially improves high-risk detection while retaining competitive average error. Across eight LLMs, structured evidence consistently increases report quality, numerical fidelity, and claim-level grounding. A practitioner evaluation involving 51 analysts and related domain professionals further indicates that the reports support real-world review and decision-making: most participants rated them as practically useful and endorsed an operational pilot. These findings demonstrate that reliable LLM-assisted reporting requires predictive models to be coupled with structured evidence, explicit verification, and analyst oversight.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

Portfolio Preference Elicitation in Institutional Crossing Markets

Institutional crossing platforms face a hidden-information problem: investors value trades as portfolios, but liquidity discovery is typically organized around individual securities. We model portfolio crossing as limited-communication preference elicitation over signed portfolio trades. The platform first uses price-directed demand queries to search the portfolio space and then verifies selected packages through value queries; an incumbent verification query records the demand-discovered allocation before further exploration. Final allocations are chosen from elicited reports, so the learning model guides queries but does not determine welfare. The analysis shows why search and verification are complementary. Demand queries locate high-value regions of a nonseparable portfolio space, but they provide only conservative welfare evidence unless selected packages are verified. Value queries provide exact welfare comparisons, but they are ineffective when applied to poorly targeted packages. Market-calibrated experiments using equity panels from the United States, Korea, Japan, and Germany show that demand-only and value-only designs recover only about half of full-information welfare under a limited query budget, whereas the hybrid procedure recovers 88\% and approaches 95\% as communication expands. We then compare exact security-level packages with factor-completed basket packages within the same allocation rule. Security-level packages are the unadjusted-efficiency mode when exact-securities disclosure is inexpensive. Factor-completed baskets become preferable when pretrade message informativeness is costly. The results characterize portfolio crossing as a selective verification problem and identify disclosure-sensitive package representation as a core design choice for hidden liquidity platforms.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2026

Evaluating LLMs in Finance Requires Explicit Bias Consideration

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into financial workflows, but evaluation practice has not kept up. Finance-specific biases can inflate performance, contaminate backtests, and make reported results useless for any deployment claim. We identify five recurring biases in financial LLM applications. They include look-ahead bias, survivorship bias, narrative bias, objective bias, and cost bias. These biases break financial tasks in distinct ways and they often compound to create an illusion of validity. We reviewed 164 papers from 2023 to 2025 and found that no single bias is discussed in more than 28 percent of studies. This position paper argues that bias in financial LLM systems requires explicit attention and that structural validity should be enforced before any result is used to support a deployment claim. We propose a Structural Validity Framework and an evaluation checklist with minimal requirements for bias diagnosis and future system design. The material is available at https://github.com/Eleanorkong/Awesome-Financial-LLM-Bias-Mitigation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Forecasting Future Language: Context Design for Mention Markets

Mention markets, a type of prediction market in which contracts resolve based on whether a specified keyword is mentioned during a future public event, require accurate probabilistic forecasts of keyword-mention outcomes. While recent work shows that large language models (LLMs) can generate forecasts competitive with human forecasters, it remains unclear how input context should be designed to support accurate prediction. In this paper, we study this question through experiments on earnings-call mention markets, which require forecasting whether a company will mention a specified keyword during its upcoming call. We run controlled comparisons varying (i) which contextual information is provided (news and/or prior earnings-call transcripts) and (ii) how \textit{market probability}, (i.e., prediction market contract price) is used. We introduce Market-Conditioned Prompting (MCP), which explicitly treats the market-implied probability as a prior and instructs the LLM to update this prior using textual evidence, rather than re-predicting the base rate from scratch. In our experiments, we find three insights: (1) richer context consistently improves forecasting performance; (2) market-conditioned prompting (MCP), which treats the market probability as a prior and updates it using textual evidence, yields better-calibrated forecasts; and (3) a mixture of the market probability and MCP (MixMCP) outperforms the market baseline. By dampening the LLM's posterior update with the market prior, MixMCP yields more robust predictions than either the market or the LLM alone.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2026

NavFormer: IGRF Forecasting in Moving Coordinate Frames

Triad magnetometer components change with sensor attitude even when the IGRF total intensity target stays invariant. NavFormer forecasts this invariant target with rotation invariant scalar features and a Canonical SPD module that stabilizes the spectrum of window level second moments of the triads without sign discontinuities. The module builds a canonical frame from a Gram matrix per window and applies state dependent spectral scaling in the original coordinates. Experiments across five flights show lower error than strong baselines in standard training, few shot training, and zero shot transfer. The code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/NavFormer-Robust-IGRF-Forecasting-for-Autonomous-Navigators-0765

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Portable Single-Beam Atomic Total-Field Magnetometer for Stand-off Magnetic Sensing

Optically pumped atomic magnetometers (OPAMs) offer high sensitivity at room temperature and are increasingly considered for portable magnetic sensing in geomagnetic-field environments. Here we report a handheld-scale, single-beam scalar $^{87}$Rb OPAM with a sensor-head volume of approximately 110~mL. The device operates in an all-optical Bell-Bloom configuration and uses digital lock-in, dispersive tracking of the $^{87}$Rb Larmor resonance, implemented with a hybrid electronics stack that combines in-house control hardware with commercial modules. A single frequency-modulated laser beam performs both pumping and probing without RF coils. All signal processing is realized in Python on a single-board computer paired with a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) data-acquisition module, enabling immediate deployment without dedicated signal-processing hardware. The magnetometer has an intrinsic in-band field sensitivity of approximately 21~pT/$\sqrt{\mathrm{Hz}}$, estimated from the lock-in dispersion slope, over a 0.1--30~Hz closed-loop in-band region with a digital-output rate of 200~samples/s. In an unshielded Earth-field deployment, we detect repeatable transient magnetic signatures from a controlled elevator motion sequence and quantify standoff observability over sensor-elevator distances from 1.25~m to 10~m. These results show that compact scalar OPAMs can provide bandwidth and range-resolved event sensitivity suitable for field-deployable magnetic anomaly detection and infrastructure monitoring in realistic geomagnetic environments.

physics.atom-ph↗

arXiv2025

Fusing Narrative Semantics for Financial Volatility Forecasting

We introduce M2VN: Multi-Modal Volatility Network, a novel deep learning-based framework for financial volatility forecasting that unifies time series features with unstructured news data. M2VN leverages the representational power of deep neural networks to address two key challenges in this domain: (i) aligning and fusing heterogeneous data modalities, numerical financial data and textual information, and (ii) mitigating look-ahead bias that can undermine the validity of financial models. To achieve this, M2VN combines open-source market features with news embeddings generated by Time Machine GPT, a recently introduced point-in-time LLM, ensuring temporal integrity. An auxiliary alignment loss is introduced to enhance the integration of structured and unstructured data within the deep learning architecture. Extensive experiments demonstrate that M2VN consistently outperforms existing baselines, underscoring its practical value for risk management and financial decision-making in dynamic markets.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2025

Signature-Informed Transformer for Asset Allocation

Modern deep learning for asset allocation typically separates forecasting from optimization. We argue this creates a fundamental mismatch where minimizing prediction errors fails to yield robust portfolios. We propose the Signature Informed Transformer to address this by unifying feature extraction and decision making into a single policy. Our model employs path signatures to encode complex path dependencies and introduces a specialized attention mechanism that targets geometric asset relationships. By directly minimizing the Conditional Value at Risk we ensure the training objective aligns with financial goals. We prove that our attention module rigorously amplifies signature derived signals. Experiments across diverse equity universes show our approach significantly outperforms both traditional strategies and advanced forecasting baselines. The code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Signature-Informed-Transformer-For-Asset-Allocation-DB88

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Time-MQA: Time Series Multi-Task Question Answering with Context Enhancement

Time series data are foundational in finance, healthcare, and energy domains. However, most existing methods and datasets remain focused on a narrow spectrum of tasks, such as forecasting or anomaly detection. To bridge this gap, we introduce Time Series Multi-Task Question Answering (Time-MQA), a unified framework that enables natural language queries across multiple time series tasks - numerical analytical tasks and open-ended question answering with reasoning. Central to Time-MQA is the TSQA dataset, a large-scale dataset containing $\sim$200k question-answer pairs derived from diverse time series spanning environment, traffic, etc. This comprehensive resource covers various time series lengths and promotes robust model development. We further demonstrate how continually pre-training large language models (Mistral 7B, Llama-3 8B, and Qwen-2.5 7B) on the TSQA dataset enhanced time series reasoning capabilities, moving beyond mere numeric tasks and enabling more advanced and intuitive interactions with temporal data. The complete TSQA dataset, models, user study questionnaires for evaluation, and other related materials have been open-sourced.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Decision-informed Neural Networks with Large Language Model Integration for Portfolio Optimization

This paper addresses the critical disconnect between prediction and decision quality in portfolio optimization by integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with decision-focused learning. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that minimizing the prediction error alone leads to suboptimal portfolio decisions. We aim to exploit the representational power of LLMs for investment decisions. An attention mechanism processes asset relationships, temporal dependencies, and macro variables, which are then directly integrated into a portfolio optimization layer. This enables the model to capture complex market dynamics and align predictions with the decision objectives. Extensive experiments on S\&P100 and DOW30 datasets show that our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models. In addition, gradient-based analyses show that our model prioritizes the assets most crucial to decision making, thus mitigating the effects of prediction errors on portfolio performance. These findings underscore the value of integrating decision objectives into predictions for more robust and context-aware portfolio management.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2024

Geodesic Flow Kernels for Semi-Supervised Learning on Mixed-Variable Tabular Dataset

Tabular data poses unique challenges due to its heterogeneous nature, combining both continuous and categorical variables. Existing approaches often struggle to effectively capture the underlying structure and relationships within such data. We propose GFTab (Geodesic Flow Kernels for Semi- Supervised Learning on Mixed-Variable Tabular Dataset), a semi-supervised framework specifically designed for tabular datasets. GFTab incorporates three key innovations: 1) Variable-specific corruption methods tailored to the distinct properties of continuous and categorical variables, 2) A Geodesic flow kernel based similarity measure to capture geometric changes between corrupted inputs, and 3) Tree-based embedding to leverage hierarchical relationships from available labeled data. To rigorously evaluate GFTab, we curate a comprehensive set of 21 tabular datasets spanning various domains, sizes, and variable compositions. Our experimental results show that GFTab outperforms existing ML/DL models across many of these datasets, particularly in settings with limited labeled data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Temporal Representation Learning for Stock Similarities and Its Applications in Investment Management

In the era of rapid globalization and digitalization, accurate identification of similar stocks has become increasingly challenging due to the non-stationary nature of financial markets and the ambiguity in conventional regional and sector classifications. To address these challenges, we examine SimStock, a novel temporal self-supervised learning framework that combines techniques from self-supervised learning (SSL) and temporal domain generalization to learn robust and informative representations of financial time series data. The primary focus of our study is to understand the similarities between stocks from a broader perspective, considering the complex dynamics of the global financial landscape. We conduct extensive experiments on four real-world datasets with thousands of stocks and demonstrate the effectiveness of SimStock in finding similar stocks, outperforming existing methods. The practical utility of SimStock is showcased through its application to various investment strategies, such as pairs trading, index tracking, and portfolio optimization, where it leads to superior performance compared to conventional methods. Our findings empirically examine the potential of data-driven approach to enhance investment decision-making and risk management practices by leveraging the power of temporal self-supervised learning in the face of the ever-changing global financial landscape.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2024

CAFO: Feature-Centric Explanation on Time Series Classification

In multivariate time series (MTS) classification, finding the important features (e.g., sensors) for model performance is crucial yet challenging due to the complex, high-dimensional nature of MTS data, intricate temporal dynamics, and the necessity for domain-specific interpretations. Current explanation methods for MTS mostly focus on time-centric explanations, apt for pinpointing important time periods but less effective in identifying key features. This limitation underscores the pressing need for a feature-centric approach, a vital yet often overlooked perspective that complements time-centric analysis. To bridge this gap, our study introduces a novel feature-centric explanation and evaluation framework for MTS, named CAFO (Channel Attention and Feature Orthgonalization). CAFO employs a convolution-based approach with channel attention mechanisms, incorporating a depth-wise separable channel attention module (DepCA) and a QR decomposition-based loss for promoting feature-wise orthogonality. We demonstrate that this orthogonalization enhances the separability of attention distributions, thereby refining and stabilizing the ranking of feature importance. This improvement in feature-wise ranking enhances our understanding of feature explainability in MTS. Furthermore, we develop metrics to evaluate global and class-specific feature importance. Our framework's efficacy is validated through extensive empirical analyses on two major public benchmarks and real-world datasets, both synthetic and self-collected, specifically designed to highlight class-wise discriminative features. The results confirm CAFO's robustness and informative capacity in assessing feature importance in MTS classification tasks. This study not only advances the understanding of feature-centric explanations in MTS but also sets a foundation for future explorations in feature-centric explanations.

cs.LG↗