Yosuke Irie | Searcharxiv

arXiv2023

Screening Curve Method for Economic Analysis of Household Solar Energy Self-Consumption

The profitability of solar energy self-consumption in households, the so-called photovoltaic (PV) self-consumption, is expected to boost the deployment of PV and battery storage systems. This paper develops a novel method for economic analysis of PV self-consumption using battery storage based on an extension of the Screening Curve Method (SCM). The SCM enables quick and intuitive estimation of the least-cost generation mix for a target load curve and has been used for generation planning for bulk power systems. In this paper, we generalize the framework of existing SCM to take into account the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources and apply it to the problem of optimal sizing of PV and battery storage systems for a household. Numerical studies are provided to verify the estimation accuracy of the proposed SCM and to illustrate its effectiveness in a sensitivity analysis, owing to its ability to show intuitive plots of cost curves for researchers or policy-makers to understand the reasons behind the optimization results.

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arXiv2015

Detection of phase transition in generalized Pólya urn in information cascade experiment

We propose a method of detecting a phase transition in a generalized Pólya urn in an information cascade experiment. The method is based on the asymptotic behavior of the correlation $C(t)$ between the first subject's choice and the $t+1$-th subject's choice, the limit value of which, $c\equiv \lim_{t\to \infty}C(t)$, is the order parameter of the phase transition. To verify the method, we perform a voting experiment using two-choice questions. An urn X is chosen at random from two urns A and B, which contain red and blue balls in different configurations. Subjects sequentially guess whether X is A or B using information about the prior subjects' choices and the color of a ball randomly drawn from X. The color tells the subject which is X with probability $q$. We set $q\in \{5/9,6/9,7/9,8/9\}$ by controlling the configurations of red and blue balls in A and B. The (average) lengths of the sequence of the subjects are 63, 63, 54.0, and 60.5 for $q\in \{5/9,6/9,7/9,8/9\}$, respectively. We describe the sequential voting process by a nonlinear Pólya urn model. The model suggests the possibility of a phase transition when $q$ changes. We show that $c>0\,\,\,(=0)$ for $q=5/9,6/9\,\,\,(7/9,8/9 )$ and detect the phase transition using the proposed method.

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