Young-Hwa Byun | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves in the late 21st century over the CORDEX-East Asia phase 2 domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains

The adverse impacts of extreme heat on human health are greater when concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves (CDNHWs) occur than when daytime or nighttime heatwaves occur individually, due to reduced recovery time from heat exposure. This study projects future changes in CDNHWs across East Asia under RCP2.6, RCP8.5, SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are derived from 3-hourly temperatures at 25-km resolution produced by 12 GCM-RCM chains participating in CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2. During the historical period (1981-2005), the East Asian mean CDNHW occurrence period and rate from April to September are 10.9 days and 0.9 percent, respectively. By 2071-2100, they increase to 3 weeks and 3.7 percent under RCP2.6, 2 months and 20.5 percent under RCP8.5, 2 months and 15.6 percent under SSP1-2.6, and 3 months and 45.7 percent under SSP5-8.5. CDNHW intensity and spatial extent also increase substantially. The proportion of CDNHWs lasting more than 10 days increases from 0.2 percent historically to 1.2 percent, 7.2 percent, 6.1 percent, and 17.3 percent under RCP2.6, RCP8.5, SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Particularly large increases in CDNHW occurrence and intensity are projected over Indochina, East and West China, and India. Under continued high greenhouse gas emissions, East Asia is expected to experience unprecedented heat stress as CDNHWs become substantially more frequent and intense by the end of the 21st century.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Impact of extremely high temperature on future photovoltaic power potential over East Asia

As global warming intensifies, the frequency and intensity of extremely high temperatures are expected to increase. This will impact the production of photovoltaics (PVs), which are increasingly adopted as an effective alternative to replace fossil fuel-based energy sources and reduce CO2 emissions. Furthermore, extremely high temperature days account for a considerable proportion of days with high PV power potential (PVpot). Therefore, this study investigates changes in PVpot on future extremely high temperature days over East Asia, a region with high greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to extreme climatic events. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was estimated to decrease across all scenarios and future periods. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was predicted to decrease more substantially toward the late 21st century, with a larger magnitude of decrease expected under the high-carbon emissions scenario compared to the low-carbon emissions scenario. By the mid-and late 21st century, PVpot for extremely high temperature days was projected to decrease in PV hotspot areas, particularly in the regions of northern China and southern Mongolia, by up to -7.2 %. The signs of PVpot projections vary across sub-regions under summer mean conditions, while on extremely high temperature days, PVpot is consistently expected to decrease in all regions. This suggests that extremely high temperatures further intensify the decrease in PVpot. Moreover, under extremely high-temperature conditions, near-surface air temperature has been identified as the primary driver of projected decreases in PVpot among the climate variables considered; its influence is expected to intensify over time, thereby accelerating PVpot decreases under the high-carbon emissions scenario.

physics.ao-ph↗