arXiv subjects

Yu Gui

Publications and source records attributed to Yu Gui.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Adaptive discovery of effect modification in matched observational studies

Understanding effect modification -- how treatment effects vary across subpopulations -- is practically important in observational studies, as it helps identify which subgroups are likely to benefit from a given treatment. In this paper, we study the discovery of effect modification in matched observational studies, where each treated unit may be matched to multiple controls. We develop a finite-sample valid procedure for identifying and selecting covariate-interpretable subgroups, with exact control of the subgroup-level false discovery rate (FDR). Our method explicitly accounts for unmeasured confounding via sensitivity models, and leverages multiple matched controls to improve statistical power. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our method relative to baseline methods through extensive simulation studies and a real-world application to the economic returns to college education.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

IndiSeek learns information-guided disentangled representations

Learning disentangled representations is a fundamental task in multi-modal learning. In modern applications such as single-cell multi-omics, both shared and modality-specific features are critical for characterizing cell states and supporting downstream analyses. Ideally, modality-specific features should be independent of shared ones while also capturing all complementary information within each modality. This tradeoff is naturally expressed through information-theoretic criteria, but mutual-information-based objectives are difficult to estimate reliably, and their variational surrogates often underperform in practice. In this paper, we introduce IndiSeek, a novel disentangled representation learning approach that addresses this challenge by combining an independence-enforcing objective with a computationally efficient reconstruction loss that bounds conditional mutual information. This formulation explicitly balances independence and completeness, enabling principled extraction of modality-specific features. We demonstrate the effectiveness of IndiSeek on synthetic simulations, a CITE-seq dataset and multiple real-world multi-modal benchmarks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

ACS: An interactive framework for conformal selection

This paper presents adaptive conformal selection (ACS), an interactive framework for model-free selection with guaranteed error control. Building on conformal selection (Jin and Cand\`es, 2023b), ACS generalizes the approach to support human-in-the-loop adaptive data analysis. Under the ACS framework, we can partially reuse the data to boost the selection power, make decisions on the fly while exploring the data, and incorporate new information or preferences as they arise. The key to ACS is a carefully designed principle that controls the information available for decision making, allowing the data analyst to explore the data adaptively while maintaining rigorous control of the false discovery rate (FDR). Based on the ACS framework, we provide concrete selection algorithms for various goals, including model update/selection, diversified selection, and incorporating newly available labeled data. The effectiveness of ACS is demonstrated through extensive numerical simulations and real-data applications in large language model (LLM) deployment and drug discovery.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Multi-modal contrastive learning adapts to intrinsic dimensions of shared latent variables

Multi-modal contrastive learning as a self-supervised representation learning technique has achieved great success in foundation model training, such as CLIP~\citep{radford2021learning}. In this paper, we study the theoretical properties of the learned representations from multi-modal contrastive learning beyond linear representations and specific data distributions. Our analysis reveals that, enabled by temperature optimization, multi-modal contrastive learning not only maximizes mutual information between modalities but also adapts to intrinsic dimensions of data, which can be much lower than user-specified dimensions for representation vectors. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the ability of contrastive learning to learn low-dimensional and informative representations, bridging theoretical insights and practical performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Statistical Equilibrium of Optimistic Beliefs

We study finite normal-form games in which payoffs are subject to random perturbations and players face uncertainty about how these shocks co-move across actions, an ambiguity that naturally arises when only realized (not counterfactual) payoffs are observed. We introduce the Statistical Equilibrium of Optimistic Beliefs (SE-OB), inspired by discrete choice theory. We model players as \textit{optimistic better responders}: they face ambiguity about the dependence structure (copula) of payoff perturbations across actions and resolve this ambiguity by selecting, from a belief set, the joint distribution that maximizes the expected value of the best perturbed payoff. Given this optimistic belief, players choose actions according to the induced random-utility choice rule. We define SE-OB as a fixed point of this two-step response mapping. SE-OB generalizes the Nash equilibrium and the structural quantal response equilibrium. We establish existence under standard regularity conditions on belief sets. For the economically important class of marginal belief sets, that is, the set of all joint distributions with fixed action-wise marginals, optimistic belief selection reduces to an optimal coupling problem, and SE-OB admits a characterization via Nash equilibrium of a smooth regularized game, yielding tractability and enabling computation. We characterize the relationship between SE-OB and existing equilibrium notions and illustrate its empirical relevance in simulations, where it captures systematic violations of independence of irrelevant alternatives that standard logit-based models fail to explain.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2024

Conformal Prediction: A Data Perspective

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified probability. However, modern data science diverse modalities, along with increasing data and model complexity, challenge traditional CP methods. These developments have spurred novel approaches to address evolving scenarios. This survey reviews the foundational concepts of CP and recent advancements from a data-centric perspective, including applications to structured, unstructured, and dynamic data. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities CP faces in large-scale data and models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Distributionally robust risk evaluation with an isotonic constraint

Statistical learning under distribution shift is challenging when neither prior knowledge nor fully accessible data from the target distribution is available. Distributionally robust learning (DRL) aims to control the worst-case statistical performance within an uncertainty set of candidate distributions, but how to properly specify the set remains challenging. To enable distributional robustness without being overly conservative, in this paper, we propose a shape-constrained approach to DRL, which incorporates prior information about the way in which the unknown target distribution differs from its estimate. More specifically, we assume the unknown density ratio between the target distribution and its estimate is isotonic with respect to some partial order. At the population level, we provide a solution to the shape-constrained optimization problem that does not involve the isotonic constraint. At the sample level, we provide consistency results for an empirical estimator of the target in a range of different settings. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real data examples demonstrate the improved accuracy of the proposed shape-constrained approach.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Conformal Alignment: Knowing When to Trust Foundation Models with Guarantees

Before deploying outputs from foundation models in high-stakes tasks, it is imperative to ensure that they align with human values. For instance, in radiology report generation, reports generated by a vision-language model must align with human evaluations before their use in medical decision-making. This paper presents Conformal Alignment, a general framework for identifying units whose outputs meet a user-specified alignment criterion. It is guaranteed that on average, a prescribed fraction of selected units indeed meet the alignment criterion, regardless of the foundation model or the data distribution. Given any pre-trained model and new units with model-generated outputs, Conformal Alignment leverages a set of reference data with ground-truth alignment status to train an alignment predictor. It then selects new units whose predicted alignment scores surpass a data-dependent threshold, certifying their corresponding outputs as trustworthy. Through applications to question answering and radiology report generation, we demonstrate that our method is able to accurately identify units with trustworthy outputs via lightweight training over a moderate amount of reference data. En route, we investigate the informativeness of various features in alignment prediction and combine them with standard models to construct the alignment predictor.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Unraveling Projection Heads in Contrastive Learning: Insights from Expansion and Shrinkage

We investigate the role of projection heads, also known as projectors, within the encoder-projector framework (e.g., SimCLR) used in contrastive learning. We aim to demystify the observed phenomenon where representations learned before projectors outperform those learned after -- measured using the downstream linear classification accuracy, even when the projectors themselves are linear. In this paper, we make two significant contributions towards this aim. Firstly, through empirical and theoretical analysis, we identify two crucial effects -- expansion and shrinkage -- induced by the contrastive loss on the projectors. In essence, contrastive loss either expands or shrinks the signal direction in the representations learned by an encoder, depending on factors such as the augmentation strength, the temperature used in contrastive loss, etc. Secondly, drawing inspiration from the expansion and shrinkage phenomenon, we propose a family of linear transformations to accurately model the projector's behavior. This enables us to precisely characterize the downstream linear classification accuracy in the high-dimensional asymptotic limit. Our findings reveal that linear projectors operating in the shrinkage (or expansion) regime hinder (or improve) the downstream classification accuracy. This provides the first theoretical explanation as to why (linear) projectors impact the downstream performance of learned representations. Our theoretical findings are further corroborated by extensive experiments on both synthetic data and real image data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Conformalized matrix completion

Matrix completion aims to estimate missing entries in a data matrix, using the assumption of a low-complexity structure (e.g., low rank) so that imputation is possible. While many effective estimation algorithms exist in the literature, uncertainty quantification for this problem has proved to be challenging, and existing methods are extremely sensitive to model misspecification. In this work, we propose a distribution-free method for predictive inference in the matrix completion problem. Our method adapts the framework of conformal prediction, which provides confidence intervals with guaranteed distribution-free validity in the setting of regression, to the problem of matrix completion. Our resulting method, conformalized matrix completion (cmc), offers provable predictive coverage regardless of the accuracy of the low-rank model. Empirical results on simulated and real data demonstrate that cmc is robust to model misspecification while matching the performance of existing model-based methods when the model is correct.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Conformalized survival analysis with adaptive cutoffs

This paper introduces an assumption-lean method that constructs valid and efficient lower predictive bounds (LPBs) for survival times with censored data. We build on recent work by Cand\`es et al. (2021), whose approach first subsets the data to discard any data points with early censoring times, and then uses a reweighting technique (namely, weighted conformal inference (Tibshirani et al., 2019)) to correct for the distribution shift introduced by this subsetting procedure. For our new method, instead of constraining to a fixed threshold for the censoring time when subsetting the data, we allow for a covariate-dependent and data-adaptive subsetting step, which is better able to capture the heterogeneity of the censoring mechanism. As a result, our method can lead to LPBs that are less conservative and give more accurate information. We show that in the Type I right-censoring setting, if either of the censoring mechanism or the conditional quantile of survival time is well estimated, our proposed procedure achieves nearly exact marginal coverage, where in the latter case we additionally have approximate conditional coverage. We evaluate the validity and efficiency of our proposed algorithm in numerical experiments, illustrating its advantage when compared with other competing methods. Finally, our method is applied to a real dataset to generate LPBs for users' active times on a mobile app.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Neural Gaussian Mirror for Controlled Feature Selection in Neural Networks

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become increasingly popular and achieved outstanding performance in predictive tasks. However, the DNN framework itself cannot inform the user which features are more or less relevant for making the prediction, which limits its applicability in many scientific fields. We introduce neural Gaussian mirrors (NGMs), in which mirrored features are created, via a structured perturbation based on a kernel-based conditional dependence measure, to help evaluate feature importance. We design two modifications of the DNN architecture for incorporating mirrored features and providing mirror statistics to measure feature importance. As shown in simulated and real data examples, the proposed method controls the feature selection error rate at a predefined level and maintains a high selection power even with the presence of highly correlated features.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

ADAGES: adaptive aggregation with stability for distributed feature selection

In this era of "big" data, not only the large amount of data keeps motivating distributed computing, but concerns on data privacy also put forward the emphasis on distributed learning. To conduct feature selection and to control the false discovery rate in a distributed pattern with multi-machines or multi-institutions, an efficient aggregation method is necessary. In this paper, we propose an adaptive aggregation method called ADAGES which can be flexibly applied to any machine-wise feature selection method. We will show that our method is capable of controlling the overall FDR with a theoretical foundation while maintaining power as good as the Union aggregation rule in practice.

stat.ME↗