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Yu Jeffrey Hu

Publications and source records attributed to Yu Jeffrey Hu.

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MLOps Monitoring at Scale for Digital Platforms

Machine learning models are widely recognized for their strong performance in forecasting. To keep that performance in streaming data settings, they have to be monitored and frequently re-trained. This can be done with machine learning operations (MLOps) techniques under supervision of an MLOps engineer. However, in digital platform settings where the number of data streams is typically large and unstable, standard monitoring becomes either suboptimal or too labor intensive for the MLOps engineer. As a consequence, companies often fall back on very simple worse performing ML models without monitoring. We solve this problem by adopting a design science approach and introducing a new monitoring framework, the Machine Learning Monitoring Agent (MLMA), that is designed to work at scale for any ML model with reasonable labor cost. A key feature of our framework concerns test-based automated re-training based on a data-adaptive reference loss batch. The MLOps engineer is kept in the loop via key metrics and also acts, pro-actively or retrospectively, to maintain performance of the ML model in the production stage. We conduct a large-scale test at a last-mile delivery platform to empirically validate our monitoring framework.

econ.EM

Fast Forecasting of Unstable Data Streams for On-Demand Service Platforms

On-demand service platforms face a challenging problem of forecasting a large collection of high-frequency regional demand data streams that exhibit instabilities. This paper develops a novel forecast framework that is fast and scalable, and automatically assesses changing environments without human intervention. We empirically test our framework on a large-scale demand data set from a leading on-demand delivery platform in Europe, and find strong performance gains from using our framework against several industry benchmarks, across all geographical regions, loss functions, and both pre- and post-Covid periods. We translate forecast gains to economic impacts for this on-demand service platform by computing financial gains and reductions in computing costs.

econ.EM

The Effect of Product Recommendations on Online Investor Behaviors

Despite the popularity of product recommendations on online investment platforms, few studies have explored their impact on investor behaviors. Using data from a global e-commerce platform, we apply regression discontinuity design to causally examine the effects of product recommendations on online investors' mutual fund investments. Our findings indicate that recommended funds experience a significant rise in purchases, especially among low socioeconomic status investors who are most influenced by these recommendations. However, investors tend to suffer significantly worse investment returns after purchasing recommended funds, and this negative impact is also most significant for investors with low socioeconomic status. To explain this disparity, we find investors tend to gather less information and expend reduced effort in fund research when buying recommended funds. Furthermore, investors' redemption timing of recommended funds is less optimal than non-recommended funds. We also find that recommended funds experience a larger return reversal than non-recommended funds. In conclusion, product recommendations make investors behave more irrationally and these negative consequences are most significant for investors with low socioeconomic status, which can amplify wealth inequality among investors in financial markets.

econ.GN