arXiv subjects

Yuchen Qi

Publications and source records attributed to Yuchen Qi.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Martingale R-learner: Estimating Time-varying Heterogeneous Treatment Effects for Time-to-event Outcomes

Biological research and clinical evidence suggest that treatment response may vary substantially along characteristics, such as comorbidities, genetic variants, environmental, or socio-economic factors. Future precision medicine requires accurate assessment of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) to guide optimal clinical decisions at the individual level. We introduce a functional score framework that extends the traditional estimating equations for survival data to nonparametric HTE and generalize the Neyman orthogonality accordingly, thus filling a methodological as well as theoretical gap. Under the Neyman orthogonal functional score framework, we developed the martingale R-learner based on a decomposition of the conditional martingale residuals into residuals of the risk-set propensity score and the marginal martingale, thereby reducing the impact of estimation bias in HTE from nuisance models including (1) marginal survival, and (2) risk-set propensity scores. This enables leveraging advances in machine learning and incorporates flexible estimators for the nuisance functions and attaining the standard optimal nonparametric estimation rate with the oracle property. Numerical experiments demonstrated empirical performance consistent with the theory. We applied the martingale R-learner to estimate the effect of alcohol on dementia using the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

VB-NET: A physics-constrained gray-box deep learning framework for modeling air conditioning systems as virtual batteries

The increasing penetration of renewable energy necessitates unlocking demand-side flexibility. While air conditioning (AC) systems offer significant thermal inertia, existing physical and data-driven models struggle with parameter acquisition, interpretability, and data scarcity. This paper proposes VB-NET, a physics-constrained gray-box deep learning framework that transforms complex AC thermodynamics into a standardized Virtual Battery (VB) model. We first mathematically prove the isomorphic equivalence between the AC and VB models. Subsequently, VB-NET is designed to strictly enforces physical laws by decoupling shared meteorological drivers from private building thermal fingerprints and embedding a differentiable physics layer. Experimental results demonstrate that VB-NET significantly outperforms conventional black-box models in state of charge tracking while successfully recovering underlying thermodynamic laws to yield physically consistent parameters. Furthermore, utilizing multi-task learning and terminal sensitivity modulation, VB-NET overcomes the cold-start dilemma, achieving high-precision modeling for new AC units using only 2% to 6% of historical data. Ultimately, this study provides an interpretable and data-efficient pathway for aggregating decentralized AC resources for grid regulation.

eess.SY↗