arXiv subjects

Yuki Itaya

Publications and source records attributed to Yuki Itaya.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Assessing Collision Probability in Low-Thrust Deorbit

End-of-life support of satellites is necessary to improve post-mission-disposal compliance rates for maintaining space environment. Deorbit mission with low thrust, e.g. a laser, induces a low-level deceleration on the target object that gradually lowers the target altitude. Since such a low-thrust trajectory is time-consuming, the risk of collision greatly influences the mission success rate. In this context, this paper assesses the collision risk during deorbit trajectories with low thrust. Furthermore, parametric studies for the relationship between the re-entry time and the risk of collision are performed.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Relative Orbit Control Considering Laser Ablation Uncertainty

This study proposes a relative orbit control law for laser debris removal missions considering the uncertainties of laser ablation and atmospheric drag. A removal spacecraft irradiates laser pulses to a target debris to generate the ablation force for deorbiting. The deorbiting force lowers the target altitude, and the removal spacecraft must follow it to maintain its relative position for continuous laser irradiation. The difficulty stems from uncertainties of the magnitude of laser ablation and external disturbances such as atmospheric drag. To tackle this problem, this study derives an adaptive control method using the Gaussian process regression to cancel the uncertainties with a nonparametric regression model. Numerical simulations verify the proposed control law under the uncertainties of laser ablation and atmospheric drag. The proposed control law can contribute to the realization of a safer and more secure mission not only for laser debris removal missions, but also for other on-orbit services.

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arXiv2025

Statistical Inference of the Matthews Correlation Coefficient for Multiclass Classification

Classification problems are essential statistical tasks that form the foundation of decision-making across various fields, including patient prognosis and treatment strategies for critical conditions. Consequently, evaluating the performance of classification models is of significant importance, and numerous evaluation metrics have been proposed. Among these, the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), also known as the phi coefficient, is widely recognized as a reliable metric that provides balanced measurements even in the presence of class imbalance. However, with the increasing prevalence of multiclass classification problems involving three or more classes, macro-averaged and micro-averaged extensions of MCC have been employed, despite a lack of clear definitions or established references for these extensions. In the present study, we propose a formal framework for MCC tailored to multiclass classification problems using macro-averaged and micro-averaged approaches. Moreover, discussions on the use of these extended MCCs for multiclass problems often rely solely on point estimates, potentially overlooking the statistical significance and reliability of the results. To address this gap, we introduce several methods for constructing asymptotic confidence intervals for the proposed metrics. Furthermore, we extend these methods to include the construction of asymptotic confidence intervals for differences in the proposed metrics, specifically for paired study designs. The utility of our methods is evaluated through comprehensive simulations and real-world data analyses.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Robust Estimation of Item Parameters via Divergence Measures in Item Response Theory

Marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) in item response theory (IRT) is highly sensitive to aberrant responses, such as careless answering and random guessing, which can reduce estimation accuracy. To address this issue, this study introduces robust estimation methods for item parameters in IRT. Instead of empirically minimizing Kullback--Leibler divergence as in MMLE, the proposed approach minimizes the objective functions based on robust divergences, specifically density power divergence and γ-divergence. The resulting estimators are statistically consistent and asymptotically normal under appropriate regularity conditions. Furthermore, they offer a flexible trade-off between robustness and efficiency through hyperparameter tuning, forming a generalized estimation framework encompassing MMLE as a special case. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methods, we conducted simulation experiments under various conditions, including scenarios with aberrant responses. The results demonstrated that the proposed methods surpassed existing ones in performance across various conditions. Moreover, numerical analysis of influence functions verified that increasing the hyperparameters effectively suppressed the impact of responses with low occurrence probabilities, which are potentially aberrant. These findings highlight that the proposed approach offers a robust alternative to MMLE, significantly enhancing measurement accuracy in testing and survey contexts prone to aberrant responses.

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arXiv2024

Asymptotic Properties of Matthews Correlation Coefficient

Evaluating classifications is crucial in statistics and machine learning, as it influences decision-making across various fields, such as patient prognosis and therapy in critical conditions. The Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) is recognized as a performance metric with high reliability, offering a balanced measurement even in the presence of class imbalances. Despite its importance, there remains a notable lack of comprehensive research on the statistical inference of MCC. This deficiency often leads to studies merely validating and comparing MCC point estimates, a practice that, while common, overlooks the statistical significance and reliability of results. Addressing this research gap, our paper introduces and evaluates several methods to construct asymptotic confidence intervals for the single MCC and the differences between MCCs in paired designs. Through simulations across various scenarios, we evaluate the finite-sample behavior of these methods and compare their performances. Furthermore, through real data analysis, we illustrate the potential utility of our findings in comparing binary classifiers, highlighting the possible contributions of our research in this field.

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