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Yukun Bao

Publications and source records attributed to Yukun Bao.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Temporally Unified Adversarial Perturbations for Time Series Forecasting

While deep learning models have achieved remarkable success in time series forecasting, their vulnerability to adversarial examples remains a critical security concern. However, existing attack methods in the forecasting field typically ignore the temporal consistency inherent in time series data, leading to divergent and contradictory perturbation values for the same timestamp across overlapping samples. This temporally inconsistent perturbations problem renders adversarial attacks impractical for real-world data manipulation. To address this, we introduce Temporally Unified Adversarial Perturbations (TUAPs), which enforce a temporal unification constraint to ensure identical perturbations for each timestamp across all overlapping samples. Moreover, we propose a novel Timestamp-wise Gradient Accumulation Method (TGAM) that provides a modular and efficient approach to effectively generate TUAPs by aggregating local gradient information from overlapping samples. By integrating TGAM with momentum-based attack algorithms, we ensure strict temporal consistency while fully utilizing series-level gradient information to explore the adversarial perturbation space. Comprehensive experiments on three benchmark datasets and four representative state-of-the-art models demonstrate that our proposed method significantly outperforms baselines in both white-box and black-box transfer attack scenarios under TUAP constraints. Moreover, our method also exhibits superior transfer attack performance even without TUAP constraints, demonstrating its effectiveness and superiority in generating adversarial perturbations for time series forecasting models.

cs.LG

A Policy Gradient-Based Sequence-to-Sequence Method for Time Series Prediction

Sequence-to-sequence architectures built upon recurrent neural networks have become a standard choice for multi-step-ahead time series prediction. In these models, the decoder produces future values conditioned on contextual inputs, typically either actual historical observations (ground truth) or previously generated predictions. During training, feeding ground-truth values helps stabilize learning but creates a mismatch between training and inference conditions, known as exposure bias, since such true values are inaccessible during real-world deployment. On the other hand, using the model's own outputs as inputs at test time often causes errors to compound rapidly across prediction steps. To mitigate these limitations, we introduce a new training paradigm grounded in reinforcement learning: a policy gradient-based method to learn an adaptive input selection strategy for sequence-to-sequence prediction models. Auxiliary models first synthesize plausible input candidates for the decoder, and a trainable policy network optimized via policy gradients dynamically chooses the most beneficial inputs to maximize long-term prediction performance. Empirical evaluations on diverse time series datasets confirm that our approach enhances both accuracy and stability in multi-step forecasting compared to conventional methods.

cs.LG

A novel MDPSO-SVR hybrid model for feature selection in electricity consumption forecasting

Electricity consumption forecasting has vital importance for the energy planning of a country. Of the enabling machine learning models, support vector regression (SVR) has been widely used to set up forecasting models due to its superior generalization for unseen data. However, one key procedure for the predictive modeling is feature selection, which might hurt the prediction accuracy if improper features were selected. In this regard, a modified discrete particle swarm optimization (MDPSO) was employed for feature selection in this study, and then MDPSO-SVR hybrid mode was built to predict future electricity consumption. Compared with other well-established counterparts, MDPSO-SVR model consistently performs best in two real-world electricity consumption datasets, which indicates that MDPSO for feature selection can improve the prediction accuracy and the SVR equipped with the MDPSO can be a promised alternative for electricity consumption forecasting.

cs.NE

Error-feedback stochastic modeling strategy for time series forecasting with convolutional neural networks

Despite the superiority of convolutional neural networks demonstrated in time series modeling and forecasting, it has not been fully explored on the design of the neural network architecture and the tuning of the hyper-parameters. Inspired by the incremental construction strategy for building a random multilayer perceptron, we propose a novel Error-feedback Stochastic Modeling (ESM) strategy to construct a random Convolutional Neural Network (ESM-CNN) for time series forecasting task, which builds the network architecture adaptively. The ESM strategy suggests that random filters and neurons of the error-feedback fully connected layer are incrementally added to steadily compensate the prediction error during the construction process, and then a filter selection strategy is introduced to enable ESM-CNN to extract the different size of temporal features, providing helpful information at each iterative process for the prediction. The performance of ESM-CNN is justified on its prediction accuracy of one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead forecasting tasks respectively. Comprehensive experiments on both the synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed ESM-CNN not only outperforms the state-of-art random neural networks, but also exhibits stronger predictive power and less computing overhead in comparison to trained state-of-art deep neural network models.

cs.LG

Multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition based Hybrid Model for Day-ahead Peak Load Forecasting

Accurate day-ahead peak load forecasting is crucial not only for power dispatching but also has a great interest to investors and energy policy maker as well as government. Literature reveals that 1% error drop of forecast can reduce 10 million pounds operational cost. Thus, this study proposed a novel hybrid predictive model built upon multivariate empirical mode decomposition (MEMD) and support vector regression (SVR) with parameters optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO), which is able to capture precise electricity peak load. The novelty of this study mainly comes from the application of MEMD, which enables the multivariate data decomposition to effectively extract inherent information among relevant variables at different time frequency during the deterioration of multivariate over time. Two real-world load data sets from the New South Wales (NSW) and the Victoria (VIC) in Australia have been considered to verify the superiority of the proposed MEMD-PSO-SVR hybrid model. The quantitative and comprehensive assessments are performed, and the results indicate that the proposed MEMD-PSO-SVR method is a promising alternative for day-ahead electricity peak load forecasting.

cs.LG

Comprehensive learning particle swarm optimization enabled modeling framework for multi-step-ahead influenza prediction

Epidemics of influenza are major public health concerns. Since influenza prediction always relies on the weekly clinical or laboratory surveillance data, typically the weekly Influenza-like illness (ILI) rate series, accurate multi-step-ahead influenza predictions using ILI series is of great importance, especially, to the potential coming influenza outbreaks. This study proposes Comprehensive Learning Particle Swarm Optimization based Machine Learning (CLPSO-ML) framework incorporating support vector regression (SVR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) for multi-step-ahead influenza prediction. A comprehensive examination and comparison of the performance and potential of three commonly used multi-step-ahead prediction modeling strategies, including iterated strategy, direct strategy and multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) strategy, was conducted using the weekly ILI rate series from both the Southern and Northern China. The results show that: (1) The MIMO strategy achieves the best multi-step-ahead prediction, and is potentially more adaptive for longer horizon; (2) The iterated strategy demonstrates special potentials for deriving the least time difference between the occurrence of the predicted peak value and the true peak value of an influenza outbreak; (3) For ILI in the Northern China, SVR model implemented with MIMO strategy performs best, and SVR with iterated strategy also shows remarkable performance especially during outbreak periods; while for ILI in the Southern China, both SVR and MLP models with MIMO strategy have competitive prediction performance

cs.LG

What obstruct customer acceptance of internet banking? Security and privacy, risk, trust and website usability and the role of moderators

Comparatively a little attention has been paid to the factors that obstruct the acceptance of Internet banking in Sri Lanka. This research assimilates constructs such as security and privacy, perceived trust, perceived risk, and website usability. To test the conceptual model, we collected 186 valid responses from customers who use Internet banking in Sri Lanka. The structural equation modelling technique is applied and hypotheses are validated. The findings show perceived trust and website usability are the possible obstructing factors that highly concerned by Internet banking customers. While security and privacy, and perceived risk are not significant and these are not highly concerned by customers in Internet banking acceptance. The age and gender reveal the moderating effect in each exogenous latent constructs relationship. The practical and managerial implications of the findings are also discussed. This country specific study contributes to the advancement of Internet banking acceptance, and offers some useful insights to researchers, practitioners and policy makers on how to enhance Internet banking acceptance for country similar in context.

cs.CY

Mediating role of managing information technology and its impact on firm performance: insight from China

Purpose: Managing IT with firm performance has always been a debatable topic in literature and practice. Prior studies examining the above relationship have reported mixed results and have yet ignored the eminent managing IT practices. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the relevance of ValIT 2.0 practice in managing IT investment, and its mediating role in the firm performance context. Design,methodology,approach:This paper developed on two themes of literature. First managing IT as a firm's IT capability in order to generate value from IT investment. Second IT as a firm's resource under resource-based view offers firm's competence that deploys potentials in achieving firm performance. The structural equation modeling with PLS techniques used for analyzing data collected from 176 organization's IT, and business executives in China. Findings: The results of this study show empirical evidence that Val-IT's components (value governance, portfolio management, and investment management) are significantly linked to the management of IT, and it found to be a significant mediator between Val-IT components and firm performance. Research implications: This research contributes to the literature and practice by way of highlighting the value generation through managing IT on firm performance. Originality: This study is fully based on ValIT 2.0 with the firm performance where the managing IT mediate this relationship in a country-specific study in China. This study adds to the Chinese information system literature which suffers the lack of empirical studies in the context of management of IT research.

cs.CY

Investigating factors affecting learners perception toward online learning evidence from ClassStart application in Thailand

Twenty-First Century Education is a design of instructional culture that empowers learner-centered through the philosophy of "Less teaching but more learning". Due to the development of technology enhance learning in developing countries such as Thailand, online learning is rapidly growing in the electronic learning market. ClassStart is a learning management system developed to support Thailand's educational management and to promote the student-centred learning processes. It also allows the instructor to analyse individual learners through system-generated activities. The study of online learning acceptance is primarily required to successfully achieve online learning system development. However, the behavioural intention of students to use online learning systems has not been well examined, in particular, by focusing specific but representative applications such as ClassStart in this study. This research takes the usage of ClassStart as research scenario and investigates the individual acceptance of technology through the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology, as well as technological quality through the Delone and McLean IS success model. A total of 307 undergraduate students using ClassStart responded to the survey. The Partial Least Squares method, a statistics analysis technique based on the Structural Equation Model (SEM), was used to analyze the data. It was found that performance expectancy, social influence, information quality and system quality have the significant effect on intention to use ClassStart.

cs.CY

Investigating Academic Major Differences in perception of Computer Self-efficacy and Intention toward E-learning Adoption in China

Recognizing the underlying relationship between e-learning practice and the institutional environments hosted in, the Chinese educational practice on branching high school students into science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and non-STEM academic major groups before being admitted into universities or colleges is examined. By extending the well-established Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) with computer self-efficacy, this study aims to examine the difference in perceptions and behaviours on e-learning adoption from the STEM and non-STEM students. The results revealed that STEM score of computer self-efficacy, perceived ease of use and behavioural intention to use e-learning are all greater than non-STEM.

physics.ed-ph

Identifying Malicious Web Domains Using Machine Learning Techniques with Online Credibility and Performance Data

Malicious web domains represent a big threat to web users' privacy and security. With so much freely available data on the Internet about web domains' popularity and performance, this study investigated the performance of well-known machine learning techniques used in conjunction with this type of online data to identify malicious web domains. Two datasets consisting of malware and phishing domains were collected to build and evaluate the machine learning classifiers. Five single classifiers and four ensemble classifiers were applied to distinguish malicious domains from benign ones. In addition, a binary particle swarm optimisation (BPSO) based feature selection method was used to improve the performance of single classifiers. Experimental results show that, based on the web domains' popularity and performance data features, the examined machine learning techniques can accurately identify malicious domains in different ways. Furthermore, the BPSO-based feature selection procedure is shown to be an effective way to improve the performance of classifiers.

cs.CR

Malicious Web Domain Identification using Online Credibility and Performance Data by Considering the Class Imbalance Issue

Purpose: Malicious web domain identification is of significant importance to the security protection of Internet users. With online credibility and performance data, this paper aims to investigate the use of machine learning tech-niques for malicious web domain identification by considering the class imbalance issue (i.e., there are more benign web domains than malicious ones). Design/methodology/approach: We propose an integrated resampling approach to handle class imbalance by combining the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling TEchnique (SMOTE) and Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), a population-based meta-heuristic algorithm. We use the SMOTE for over-sampling and PSO for under-sampling. Findings: By applying eight well-known machine learning classifiers, the proposed integrated resampling approach is comprehensively examined using several imbalanced web domain datasets with different imbalance ratios. Com-pared to five other well-known resampling approaches, experimental results confirm that the proposed approach is highly effective. Practical implications: This study not only inspires the practical use of online credibility and performance data for identifying malicious web domains, but also provides an effective resampling approach for handling the class imbal-ance issue in the area of malicious web domain identification. Originality/value: Online credibility and performance data is applied to build malicious web domain identification models using machine learning techniques. An integrated resampling approach is proposed to address the class im-balance issue. The performance of the proposed approach is confirmed based on real-world datasets with different imbalance ratios.

cs.LG

Interval Forecasting of Electricity Demand: A Novel Bivariate EMD-based Support Vector Regression Modeling Framework

Highly accurate interval forecasting of electricity demand is fundamental to the success of reducing the risk when making power system planning and operational decisions by providing a range rather than point estimation. In this study, a novel modeling framework integrating bivariate empirical mode decomposition (BEMD) and support vector regression (SVR), extended from the well-established empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based time series modeling framework in the energy demand forecasting literature, is proposed for interval forecasting of electricity demand. The novelty of this study arises from the employment of BEMD, a new extension of classical empirical model decomposition (EMD) destined to handle bivariate time series treated as complex-valued time series, as decomposition method instead of classical EMD only capable of decomposing one-dimensional single-valued time series. This proposed modeling framework is endowed with BEMD to decompose simultaneously both the lower and upper bounds time series, constructed in forms of complex-valued time series, of electricity demand on a monthly per hour basis, resulting in capturing the potential interrelationship between lower and upper bounds. The proposed modeling framework is justified with monthly interval-valued electricity demand data per hour in Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection, indicating it as a promising method for interval-valued electricity demand forecasting.

cs.LG

Can Online MBA Programs Allow Professional Working Mothers to Balance Work, Family, and Career Progression? A Case Study in China

Career progression is a general concern of professional working mothers in China. The purpose of this paper is to report a qualitative study of Chinese professional working mothers that explored the perceptions of online Master's of Business Administration (MBA) programmes as a tool for career progression for working mothers balancing work and family in China. The objective was to examine existing work-family and career progression conflicts, the perceived usefulness of online MBA in balancing work-family and career aspirations, and the perceived ease of use of e-learning. Using Davis's (1989) technology acceptance model (TAM), the research drew on in-depth interviews with 10 female part-time MBA students from a university in Wuhan. The data were analysed through coding and transcribing. The findings showed that conflicts arose where demanding work schedules competed with family obligations, studies, and caring for children and the elderly. Online MBA programmes were viewed as a viable tool for balancing work and family and studying, given its flexible time management capabilities. However, consideration must be given to address students' motivation issues, lack of networking, lack of face-to-face interaction, and quality. The research findings emphasise the pragmatic need to re-align higher education policy and practice to position higher education e-learning as a trustable education delivery channel in China. By shedding light on the prevailing work-family conflict experienced by women seeking career advancement, this study suggests developing better gender-supporting policies and innovative e-learning practices to champion online MBA programme for this target niche.

cs.CY

Perceptions of International Female Students Towards E-learning in Resolving High Education and Family Role Strain

It is a common phenomenon for many mature female international students enrolled in high education overseas to experience strain from managing conflicting roles of student and family, and difficulties of cross-cultural adjustment. The purpose of this study is to examine perceptions and behavioral intentions of international female students towards e-learning as a tool for resolving overseas high education and family strain from a technology acceptance standpoint. To achieve this goal, Davis's (1989) technology acceptance model is used as the study's conceptual framework, to investigate perceived usefulness, ease of use and behavioral intentions towards e-learning. The research draws on face-to-face interviews with 21 female international students enrolled in classroom taught degree programs at a university in Wuhan, China. The data is analyzed through coding and transcribing. The findings reveal that given its convenience, e-learning is generally perceived as practical in balancing study with family as well as feasible in saving time, money and energy. However, key concerns were raised over the issues of poor and costly Internet connectivity in developing countries, as well as perceived negative reputation, lack of face-to-face interaction and lack of motivation in online environment. Important issues and recommendations are raised for consideration when promoting e-learning programme. This study emphasis on the need to revisit gender supporting policies and effective marketing to re-position the prevailing image of e-learning as a reputable and reliable education delivery method.

cs.CY

Exploring gender differences on general and specific computer self-efficacy in mobile learning adoption

Reasons for contradictory findings regarding the gender moderate effect on computer self-efficacy in the adoption of e-learning/mobile learning are limited. Recognizing the multilevel nature of the computer self-efficacy (CSE), this study attempts to explore gender differences in the adoption of mobile learning, by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) with general and specific CSE. Data collected from 137 university students were tested against the research model using the structural equation modeling approach. The results suggest that there are significant gender differences in perceptions of general CSE, perceived ease of use and behavioral intention to use but no significant differences in specific CSE, perceived usefulness. Additionally, the findings reveal that specific CSE is more salient than general CSE in influencing perceived ease of use while general CSE seems to be the salient factor on perceived usefulness for both female and male combined. Moreover, general CSE was salient to determine the behavioral intention to use indirectly for female despite lower perception of general CSE than male's, and specific CSE exhibited stronger indirect effect on behavioral intention to use than general CSE for female despite similar perception of specific CSE as males'. These findings provide important implications for mobile learning adoption and usage.

cs.CY

Does Restraining End Effect Matter in EMD-Based Modeling Framework for Time Series Prediction? Some Experimental Evidences

Following the "decomposition-and-ensemble" principle, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD)-based modeling framework has been widely used as a promising alternative for nonlinear and nonstationary time series modeling and prediction. The end effect, which occurs during the sifting process of EMD and is apt to distort the decomposed sub-series and hurt the modeling process followed, however, has been ignored in previous studies. Addressing the end effect issue, this study proposes to incorporate end condition methods into EMD-based decomposition and ensemble modeling framework for one- and multi-step ahead time series prediction. Four well-established end condition methods, Mirror method, Coughlin's method, Slope-based method, and Rato's method, are selected, and support vector regression (SVR) is employed as the modeling technique. For the purpose of justification and comparison, well-known NN3 competition data sets are used and four well-established prediction models are selected as benchmarks. The experimental results demonstrated that significant improvement can be achieved by the proposed EMD-based SVR models with end condition methods. The EMD-SBM-SVR model and EMD-Rato-SVR model, in particular, achieved the best prediction performances in terms of goodness of forecast measures and equality of accuracy of competing forecasts test.

cs.AI

Multi-Step-Ahead Time Series Prediction using Multiple-Output Support Vector Regression

Accurate time series prediction over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to both practitioners and academics. As a well-known intelligent algorithm, the standard formulation of Support Vector Regression (SVR) could be taken for multi-step-ahead time series prediction, only relying either on iterated strategy or direct strategy. This study proposes a novel multiple-step-ahead time series prediction approach which employs multiple-output support vector regression (M-SVR) with multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) prediction strategy. In addition, the rank of three leading prediction strategies with SVR is comparatively examined, providing practical implications on the selection of the prediction strategy for multi-step-ahead forecasting while taking SVR as modeling technique. The proposed approach is validated with the simulated and real datasets. The quantitative and comprehensive assessments are performed on the basis of the prediction accuracy and computational cost. The results indicate that: 1) the M-SVR using MIMO strategy achieves the best accurate forecasts with accredited computational load, 2) the standard SVR using direct strategy achieves the second best accurate forecasts, but with the most expensive computational cost, and 3) the standard SVR using iterated strategy is the worst in terms of prediction accuracy, but with the least computational cost.

cs.LG