arXiv subjects

Yunbei Xu

Publications and source records attributed to Yunbei Xu.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Statistical Properties of Robust Learning under Distributional Shifts

Distributional shifts arise when the target deployment environment differs from the source environment that generated the training data. Robust learning frameworks such as Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) and Robust Satisficing (RS) aim to address this challenge, yet their finite-sample guarantees under such shifts, and their systematic comparison, remain underexplored: existing analyses typically establish guarantees either in the source environment or for adversarial worst-case performance over an ambiguity set. This paper instead studies generalization error in the target environment---the excess loss under the shifted target distribution. Our contributions are threefold. First, we derive finite-sample generalization error bounds in the shifted target environment for both DRO and RS. These bounds explicitly characterize the trade-off between reduced sensitivity to shift and the regularization penalty induced by each method's robustness hyperparameter, and they avoid the curse of dimensionality associated with Wasserstein empirical concentration. Second, when partial shift information such as shift magnitude or direction is available, we propose information-directed hyperparameter calibrations and compare the two methods given the same information. Under these calibrations, and in the partial-information regimes we study, DRO and RS exhibit complementary theoretical and empirical behavior. Finally, we apply the framework to a network lot-sizing problem, using it to interpret how robust policies respond to positive shifts in the demand distribution. Together, these results fill a gap in understanding the statistical properties of robust learning methods under distributional shifts and provide a principled basis for comparing DRO and RS.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

The Dimension of Nonterminating Resampling Computations

A randomized algorithm may terminate almost surely even though exceptional random tapes make it run forever. This paper studies the survival tail, the Kolmogorov complexity of one such tape, and the Hausdorff dimension of all of them. For each $s>0$ at which the powered repair matrices commute, the main theorem bounds $\sum_wP[w]^s$ over surviving prefixes $w$, uniformly over deterministic nonanticipating selectors. The case $s=1$ controls termination; the full family gives weak-source and dimension bounds. The source powers contain information absent even from the ordinary repair kernel and the complete stopping-time law. Under one common finite tape source, two overlapping disagreement-repair rules on a four-vertex path have the same ordinary kernels and the same stopping-time law for every selector, yet their nontermination dimensions can be arbitrarily close to zero and one. At one common source-power level, the same dominated tape source makes one rule run forever but gives the other an exponential stopping tail. The separation is caused by action labels that produce the same state transition and are therefore invisible at power one. For bounded-dependence $k$-SAT, conditional block min-entropy above the trace-growth threshold gives exponential termination, and the effective dimension of an individual infinite run is bounded by the trace growth induced by the clauses repaired infinitely often. Tree formulas asymptotically attain the maximum-degree dimension and global source bounds, while clique formulas attain the graph-specific one-step threshold in the stated regime. An exact backward likelihood identity complements these setwise results with tail and coding bounds for each run.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2026

Bellman-sufficient Information Complexity

We introduce Bellman-sufficient information complexity for minimax analysis of sequential decision problems. A Bellman-sufficient state retains enough of the history to close the controlled recursion, while an index $Y=\chi(\Omega)$ specifies the decision-relevant information being charged. The upper bound is a log-penalized Bellman program; the lower bound is a Bellman--Fano comparison along an algorithm-dependent reference trajectory. If the two values match at a common localization scale and the stated admissibility, calibration, and growth conditions hold, they form an information-risk sandwich. UCB, E2D, and AMS/EBO control or relax the upper Bellman bracket in different ways. For the main application, we give a negative answer to a widely studied form of the GP--UCB minimax-optimality question. For every $0<\alpha<1/4$, we construct one bounded continuous kernel whose minimax regret is $\Theta(T^{1-\alpha})$ along an infinite sequence of horizons, while two globally calibrated GP--UCB rules incur linear regret under one fixed truth. An epochwise finite-marginal action-index AIR Bellman policy, implemented through robust AIR/AMS/EBO control, attains the minimax order. The construction separates realized information from the cost of uniform optimism: many low-value directions inflate the exploration multiplier and change the trajectory. Through the canonical RKHS feature map, it also yields a finite-horizon polynomial minimax separation for the specified maximal-information-calibrated LinUCB rule. A reproducible experiment illustrates the mechanism.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Pointwise Complexity for Gaussian Fields: Upper Envelopes, Algorithmic Lower Bounds, and Separation

We prove a variance-aware pointwise majorizing-measure theorem for centered Gaussian processes. Classical generic chaining characterizes the scalar quantity $\mathbb E\sup_{x\in T}X_x$; the theorem here gives a simultaneous high-probability envelope for the entire field. For an ambient prior $\mu$, the envelope at $x$ is governed by a pointwise Fernique-Talagrand functional \[\Phi_\mu(x):=\int_0^{4\sigma(x)}\sqrt{\log\frac{1}{\mu(B_d(x,\varepsilon))}}\,d\varepsilon,\] together with the corresponding Gaussian tail term. The theorem provides a reusable field-level refinement of classical generic chaining and a Gaussian-process counterpart of pointwise empirical-process bounds for deep neural networks. We also record a Bayesian algorithmic lower envelope from the interactive Fano/data-processing principle. For a known prior $\pi$, an observation channel, and a concrete estimator $\widehat t(Y)$, the lower bound is expressed through the exact ghost small-ball mass $\mathbb E_{Y\sim Q}\pi(B_d(\widehat t(Y),\Delta))$, rather than a worst-case covering number. In Gaussian location experiments, comparison decoders convert Bayes location error into lower bounds on decision-aligned Gaussian ranges. We then construct an elementary example separating the usual Fano relaxation, the Bayesian algorithmic lower envelope, the pointwise Gaussian envelope, and the full-class minimax risk. Together, these results show that algorithmic lower bounds provide local-geometric validations of pointwise complexity for fixed estimators in overparameterized ambient classes, precisely in regimes where classical minimax theory becomes either too coarse or oracle-dependent. This separation can also be recast in minimax language as penalty-range information relaxation, highlighting an important question of algorithmic robustness for classical high-dimensional models and regularized algorithms.

math.PR↗

arXiv2026

Pointwise Generalization in Deep Neural Networks

We address the fundamental question of why deep neural networks generalize by establishing a pointwise generalization theory for fully connected networks. This framework resolves long-standing barriers to characterizing the rich nonlinear feature-learning regime and builds a new statistical foundation for representation learning. For each trained model, we characterize the hypothesis via a pointwise Riemannian Dimension, derived from the eigenvalues of the learned feature representations across layers. This establishes a principled framework for deriving hypothesis-dependent, representation-aware generalization bounds. These bounds offer a systematic upgrade over approaches based on model size, products of norms, and infinite-width linearizations, yielding guarantees that are orders of magnitude tighter in both theory and experiment. Analytically, we identify the structural properties and mathematical principles that explain the tractability of deep networks. Empirically, the pointwise Riemannian Dimension exhibits substantial feature compression, decreases with increased over-parameterization, and captures the implicit bias of optimizers. Taken together, our results indicate that deep networks are mathematically tractable in practical regimes and that their generalization is sharply explained by pointwise, feature-spectrum-aware complexity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

On the Power of Adaptivity for $\varepsilon$-Best Arm Identification in Linear Bandits

We study the minimax sample complexity of $\varepsilon$-best arm identification in linear bandits. Given a compact action set $\mathcal{X}$ that spans $\mathbb{R}^d$ and an unknown reward vector $θ\in\mathbb{R}^d$, the goal is to output an arm $\widehat{x}\in\mathcal{X}$ such that $\langle \widehat{x},θ\rangle \ge \max_{x\in\mathcal{X}} \langle x,θ\rangle - \varepsilon$ with probability at least $1-δ$, using as few samples as possible. First, we present a non-adaptive fixed-design method with sample complexity $\mathcal{O}\!\left(\frac{d\log(1/δ)}{\varepsilon^2}+\frac{w(\mathcal{X})^2}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$, where $w(\mathcal{X})$ is a Gaussian width term dependent on $\mathcal{X}$, and we prove a matching lower bound $Ω\!\left(\frac{d\log(1/δ)}{\varepsilon^2}+\frac{w(\mathcal{X})^2}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$ for all non-adaptive fixed-design methods. We then turn to adaptive sampling. We raise an important structural question: beyond the canonical basis, are there structured action sets for which adaptivity yields only logarithmic-factor improvements over the optimal non-adaptive rate? We answer in the affirmative for several natural action sets, namely the hypercube, the $\ell_2$ ball, $m$-sets, and multi-task multi-armed bandits. Finally, we provide the first construction of an action set $\mathcal{X}$ for which adaptivity yields a polynomial-factor improvement over every non-adaptive algorithm. A key ingredient behind this separation is an $\ell_2$-norm estimation subroutine: we design an adaptive algorithm that uses $\mathcal{O}\!\left(\frac{d\log(1/δ)}{\varepsilon^2}\right)$ samples from the unit $\ell_2$ ball in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and outputs an estimate $\widehat r$ satisfying $|\widehat r-\|θ\|_2|\le \varepsilon$ with probability at least $1-δ$, where $θ$ is the unknown reward vector.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

In-Context Learning for Data-Driven Censored Inventory Control

We study inventory control with decision-dependent censoring, focusing on the censored or repeated newsvendor (R-NV), where each order quantity determines whether demand is fully observed or censored by sales. Existing approaches based on parametric Thompson sampling (TS) can be brittle under prior mismatch, while offline imputation methods need not transfer to online learning. Motivated by the predictive view of decision making, we combine these ideas by taking oracle actions on learned completions of latent demand. We propose in-context generative posterior sampling (ICGPS), which uses modern generative models that are meta-trained offline and deployed online by in-context autoregressive generation. Theoretically, we show that the Bayesian regret of ICGPS with a learned completion kernel is bounded by the Bayesian regret of a TS benchmark with the ideal completion kernel plus a deployment penalty scaling as $\sqrt{T}$ times the square root of the completion mismatch. This yields a plug-in template for operational problems with known TS regret bounds. For R-NV, we derive sublinear Bayesian regret by reducing censored feedback to bandit convex optimization feedback. We also show that, under reasonable coverage and stability assumptions, the online completion mismatch is controlled by the offline censored predictive mismatch, so offline predictive quality transfers to online performance. Practically, we instantiate ICGPS with ChronosFlow, which combines a frozen time-series transformer backbone with a trainable conditional normalizing-flow head for fast censoring-consistent sampling. In benchmark experiments, ChronosFlow-ICGPS matches correctly specified TS, outperforms myopic and UCB-style baselines, and is robust to prior mismatch and distribution shift. ChronosFlow-ICGPS also performs well for the real-world SuperStore dataset, especially under heavy censoring.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Autoregressive Learning in Joint KL: Sharp Oracle Bounds and Lower Bounds

We study the fundamental and timely problem of learning long sequences in autoregressive modeling and next-token prediction under model misspecification, measured by the joint Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence. Our goal is to characterize how the sequence horizon $H$ affects both approximation and estimation errors in this joint-distribution, sequence-level regime. By establishing matching upper and lower bounds, we provide, to our knowledge, the first complete characterization of long-horizon error behavior under the natural joint KL objective, with improved rates and optimality justification relative to existing work. On the approximation side, we show that joint KL admits a horizon-free approximation factor, in sharp contrast to Hellinger-based analyses that exhibit an $Ω(H)$ dependence for computationally efficient methods; this isolates the choice of divergence as the source of approximation amplification. On the estimation side, we prove a fundamental information-theoretic lower bound of order $Ω(H)$ that holds for both decomposable policy classes and fully shared policies, matching the $\widetilde O(H)$ upper bounds achieved by computationally efficient algorithms. Our analysis clarifies the landscape of recent autoregressive learning results by aligning the log-loss training objective, the sequence-level evaluation metric, and the approximation metric {\color{black}through a sharp joint-KL oracle theory}. We further show that these joint-KL guarantees imply policy learning regret bounds at rates matching prior imitation learning literature.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

On the Blessing of Pre-training in Weak-to-Strong Generalization

The paradigm of Weak-to-Strong Generalization (W2SG) suggests that a pre-trained strong model can surpass its weak supervisor, yet the decisive role of pre-training remains theoretically and empirically under-explored. In this work, we identify pre-training as the essential prerequisite for the emergence of W2SG. Theoretically, we formalize the W2SG problem within a high-dimensional single-index model framework using spiked Gaussian data, modeling pre-training as a spectral initialization step. Building upon prior impossibility results regarding the failure of learning under random initialization, we prove that W2SG is achievable when pre-training provides a geometric warm start that places the model within an "effective region" characterized by a perturbed strong-convexity geometry. Within this region, we derive a rigorous generalization bound that naturally captures the optimization dynamics: an initial performance improvement followed by a saturation bottleneck dictated by the weak supervisor's bias. Empirically, we first validate all our assumptions and theoretical insights through controlled synthetic simulations. Finally, through a massive-scale evaluation of hundreds of intermediate pre-training checkpoints from large language models, we demonstrate that W2SG is not an innate capability but emerges via a phase transition tightly coupled with the progression of pre-training.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Thompson Sampling for Repeated Newsvendor

In this paper, we investigate the performance of Thompson Sampling (TS) for online learning with censored feedback, focusing primarily on the classic repeated newsvendor model--a foundational framework in inventory management--and demonstrating how our techniques can be naturally extended to a broader class of problems. We first model demand using a Weibull distribution and initialize TS with a Gamma prior to dynamically adjust order quantities. Our analysis establishes optimal (up to logarithmic factors) frequentist regret bounds for TS without imposing restrictive prior assumptions. More importantly, it yields novel and highly interpretable insights on how TS addresses the exploration-exploitation trade-off in the repeated newsvendor setting. Specifically, our results show that when past order quantities are sufficiently large to overcome censoring, TS accurately estimates the unknown demand parameters, leading to near-optimal ordering decisions. Conversely, when past orders are relatively small, TS automatically increases future order quantities to gather additional demand information. Then, we extend our analysis to general parametric distribution family and provide proof for Bayesian regret. Extensive numerical simulations further demonstrate that TS outperforms more conservative and widely-used approaches such as online convex optimization, upper confidence bounds, and myopic Bayesian dynamic programming.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Finite-Time Minimax Bounds and an Optimal Lyapunov Policy in Queueing Control

We introduce an original minimax framework for finite-time performance analysis in queueing control and propose a surprisingly simple Lyapunov-based scheduling policy with superior finite-time performance. The framework quantitatively characterizes how the expected total queue length scales with key system parameters, including the capacity of the scheduling set and the variability of arrivals and departures across queues. This characterization provides a systematic quantitative basis for evaluating and comparing scheduling policies in the finite-time regime, including nonstationary settings under certain assumptions on the model, and shows that the proposed policy provably and empirically outperforms the classical MaxWeight strategy in finite time. Within this framework, we establish three main sets of results. First, we derive minimax lower bounds on the expected total queue length for parallel-queue scheduling via a novel Brownian coupling argument. Second, we propose a new policy, LyapOpt, which minimizes the full quadratic Lyapunov drift-capturing both first- and second-order terms-and achieves optimal finite-time performance under the dominated region condition in heavy traffic while retaining classical stability guarantees. Third, we identify a key limitation of the classical MaxWeight policy, which optimizes only the first-order drift: its finite-time performance depends suboptimally on system parameters, leading to substantially larger backlogs in explicitly characterized settings. Together, these results delineate the scope and limitations of classical drift-based scheduling and motivate new queueing-control methods with rigorous finite-time guarantees.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Assouad, Fano, and Le Cam with Interaction: A Unifying Lower Bound Framework and Characterization for Bandit Learnability

We develop a unifying framework for information-theoretic lower bound in statistical estimation and interactive decision making. Classical lower bound techniques -- such as Fano's method, Le Cam's method, and Assouad's lemma -- are central to the study of minimax risk in statistical estimation, yet are insufficient to provide tight lower bounds for \emph{interactive decision making} algorithms that collect data interactively (e.g., algorithms for bandits and reinforcement learning). Recent work of Foster et al. (2021, 2023) provides minimax lower bounds for interactive decision making using seemingly different analysis techniques from the classical methods. These results -- which are proven using a complexity measure known as the \emph{Decision-Estimation Coefficient} (DEC) -- capture difficulties unique to interactive learning, yet do not recover the tightest known lower bounds for passive estimation. We propose a unified view of these distinct methodologies through a new lower bound approach called \emph{interactive Fano method}. As an application, we introduce a novel complexity measure, the \emph{Fractional Covering Number}, which facilitates the new lower bounds for interactive decision making that extend the DEC methodology by incorporating the complexity of estimation. Using the fractional covering number, we (i) provide a unified characterization of learnability for \emph{any} stochastic bandit problem, (ii) close the remaining gap between the upper and lower bounds in Foster et al. (2021, 2023) (up to polynomial factors) for any interactive decision making problem in which the underlying model class is convex.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Statistical Properties of Robust Satisficing

The Robust Satisficing (RS) model is an emerging approach to robust optimization, offering streamlined procedures and robust generalization across various applications. However, the statistical theory of RS remains unexplored in the literature. This paper fills in the gap by comprehensively analyzing the theoretical properties of the RS model. Notably, the RS structure offers a more straightforward path to deriving statistical guarantees compared to the seminal Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO), resulting in a richer set of results. In particular, we establish two-sided confidence intervals for the optimal loss without the need to solve a minimax optimization problem explicitly. We further provide finite-sample generalization error bounds for the RS optimizer. Importantly, our results extend to scenarios involving distribution shifts, where discrepancies exist between the sampling and target distributions. Our numerical experiments show that the RS model consistently outperforms the baseline empirical risk minimization in small-sample regimes and under distribution shifts. Furthermore, compared to the DRO model, the RS model exhibits lower sensitivity to hyperparameter tuning, highlighting its practicability for robustness considerations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Upper Counterfactual Confidence Bounds: a New Optimism Principle for Contextual Bandits

The principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty is one of the most widely used and successful ideas in multi-armed bandits and reinforcement learning. However, existing optimistic algorithms (primarily UCB and its variants) often struggle to deal with general function classes and large context spaces. In this paper, we study general contextual bandits with an offline regression oracle and propose a simple, generic principle to design optimistic algorithms, dubbed "Upper Counterfactual Confidence Bounds" (UCCB). The key innovation of UCCB is building confidence bounds in policy space, rather than in action space as is done in UCB. We demonstrate that these algorithms are provably optimal and computationally efficient in handling general function classes and large context spaces. Furthermore, we illustrate that the UCCB principle can be seamlessly extended to infinite-action general contextual bandits, provide the first solutions to these settings when employing an offline regression oracle.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian Design Principles for Frequentist Sequential Learning

We develop a general theory to optimize the frequentist regret for sequential learning problems, where efficient bandit and reinforcement learning algorithms can be derived from unified Bayesian principles. We propose a novel optimization approach to generate "algorithmic beliefs" at each round, and use Bayesian posteriors to make decisions. The optimization objective to create "algorithmic beliefs," which we term "Algorithmic Information Ratio," represents an intrinsic complexity measure that effectively characterizes the frequentist regret of any algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematical approach to make Bayesian-type algorithms prior-free and applicable to adversarial settings, in a generic and optimal manner. Moreover, the algorithms are simple and often efficient to implement. As a major application, we present a novel algorithm for multi-armed bandits that achieves the "best-of-all-worlds" empirical performance in the stochastic, adversarial, and non-stationary environments. And we illustrate how these principles can be used in linear bandits, bandit convex optimization, and reinforcement learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Towards Optimal Problem Dependent Generalization Error Bounds in Statistical Learning Theory

We study problem-dependent rates, i.e., generalization errors that scale near-optimally with the variance, the effective loss, or the gradient norms evaluated at the "best hypothesis." We introduce a principled framework dubbed "uniform localized convergence," and characterize sharp problem-dependent rates for central statistical learning problems. From a methodological viewpoint, our framework resolves several fundamental limitations of existing uniform convergence and localization analysis approaches. It also provides improvements and some level of unification in the study of localized complexities, one-sided uniform inequalities, and sample-based iterative algorithms. In the so-called "slow rate" regime, we provides the first (moment-penalized) estimator that achieves the optimal variance-dependent rate for general "rich" classes; we also establish improved loss-dependent rate for standard empirical risk minimization. In the "fast rate" regime, we establish finite-sample problem-dependent bounds that are comparable to precise asymptotics. In addition, we show that iterative algorithms like gradient descent and first-order Expectation-Maximization can achieve optimal generalization error in several representative problems across the areas of non-convex learning, stochastic optimization, and learning with missing data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Acceleration of Primal-Dual Methods by Preconditioning and Simple Subproblem Procedures

Primal-Dual Hybrid Gradient (PDHG) and Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) are two widely-used first-order optimization methods. They reduce a difficult problem to simple subproblems, so they are easy to implement and have many applications. As first-order methods, however, they are sensitive to problem conditions and can struggle to reach the desired accuracy. To improve their performance, researchers have proposed techniques such as diagonal preconditioning and inexact subproblems. This paper realizes additional speedup about one order of magnitude. Specifically, we choose non-diagonal preconditioners that are much more effective than diagonal ones. Because of this, we lose closed-form solutions to some subproblems, but we found simple procedures to replace them such as a few proximal-gradient iterations or a few epochs of proximal block-coordinate descent, which are in closed forms. We show global convergence while fixing the number of those steps in every outer iteration. Therefore, our method is reliable and straightforward. Our method opens the choices of preconditioners and maintains both low per-iteration cost and global convergence. Consequently, on several typical applications of primal-dual first-order methods, we obtain 4-95$\times$ speedup over the existing state-of-the-art.

math.OC↗