arXiv subjects

Yuri F. Saporito

Publications and source records attributed to Yuri F. Saporito.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Reverse-BSDE Diffusion Sampler

Diffusion-based generative models have renewed interest in stochastic differential equation methods for sampling from complex distributions. We study a setting in which the target density is known only up to a normalizing constant and reformulate the reverse-time diffusion sampler as a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). This formulation replaces the separate pre-estimation of the time-dependent score with the solution of a coupled stochastic system. We prove the equivalence of these formulations and provide a decomposition of the approximation error arising from initializing the sampler with a standard Gaussian, applying Euler discretization to the dynamics, and solving the FBSDE approximately. We then evaluate the proposed algorithm on synthetic targets, including separated mixtures, anisotropic Gaussian distributions, and banana-shaped and ring-shaped distributions. The results demonstrate the promise of the method, particularly for targets with complex global structure.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Random Gradient-Free Optimization in Infinite Dimensional Spaces

We propose a new gradient-free method for infinite-dimensional optimization in Hilbert spaces that requires only the computation of directional derivatives. Though functional optimization is often solved through finite-dimensional gradient descent over a parametrization, such as neural networks, we instead propose to leverage the functional nature of the optimization problem to enable provable guarantees. However, infinite-dimensional gradients are often hard to compute in practice, rendering naïve functional gradient descent intractable. To overcome this limitation, our framework leverages only directional derivatives and a pre-basis for the Hilbert space, i.e., a linearly independent set whose span is dense. This resolves the tractability issue, as pre-bases are much more accessible than full orthonormal bases or reproducing kernels -- which may not even exist -- and individual directional derivatives can be computed using automatic differentiation. We showcase the use of our method to solve partial differential equations à la physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), where it effectively enables provable convergence.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Deep Learning and Elicitability for McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs With Common Noise

We present a novel numerical method for solving McKean--Vlasov forward--backward stochastic differential equations (MV--FBSDEs) with common noise, combining Picard iterations, elicitability and deep learning. The key innovation involves elicitability to derive a pathwise loss function, enabling efficient training of neural networks to approximate both the backward process and the conditional expectations arising from common noise, without requiring computationally expensive nested Monte Carlo simulations. The mean-field interaction term is parameterized via a recurrent neural network trained to minimize an elicitable score, while the backward process is approximated through a hybrid feedforward and recurrent network representing the decoupling field. We validate the algorithm on a systemic-risk inter-bank borrowing and lending model, where analytical solutions exist, demonstrating accurate recovery of the true solution. We further extend the model to quantile-mediated interactions, showcasing the flexibility of the elicitability framework beyond conditional means or moments. Finally, we apply the method to a non-stationary Aiyagari--Bewley--Huggett economic growth model with endogenous interest rates, illustrating its applicability to complex mean-field games without closed-form solutions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A New Perspective on Reverse Diffusion for Monte Carlo Sampling

This paper introduces a novel perspective on the use of reverse diffusion processes for sampling from unnormalized densities. The central idea is to embed the target density as the marginal at the initial time of a suitably constructed diffusion process evolving over a finite horizon. In contrast to existing approaches, the proposed methodology involves neither time discretization error nor score function estimation, so that Monte Carlo variability is the only source of approximation. A key theoretical result characterizes the Radon-Nikodym derivative of the reverse diffusion transition distribution with respect to that of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process. This representation provides a tractable change-of-measure formulation and serves as the foundation for two distinct classes of Monte Carlo algorithms. The first class approximates the reverse transition distribution via a sequence of pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC algorithms. The resulting scheme produces an approximate i.i.d. sample from the target distribution and is fully parallelizable, as trajectories can be generated independently. The second class consists of MCMC algorithms targeting the joint law of the whole diffusion path in $[0,T]$, for a suitably chosen horizon $T$. The proposed samplers combine three types of updates. One update simulates the diffusion forward in time according to an OU dynamics, conditional on its initial value. The remaining two update the backward component via Metropolis-type steps: one conditions on the terminal value at time $T$ and the other one does not. In both cases, acceptance probabilities are implemented using Barker-type Bernoulli factory constructions. The proposed methods perform well for targets with multimodality and complex dependence structures, providing a scalable and efficient alternative to the widely used random-walk Metropolis algorithm.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Trading in Automated Market Makers with Deep Learning

This article explores the optimisation of trading strategies in Constant Function Market Makers (CFMMs) and centralised exchanges. We develop a model that accounts for the interaction between these two markets, estimating the conditional dependence between variables using the concept of conditional elicitability. Furthermore, we pose an optimal execution problem where the agent hides their orders by controlling the rate at which they trade. We do so without approximating the market dynamics. The resulting dynamic programming equation is not analytically tractable, therefore, we employ the deep Galerkin method to solve it. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments and illustrate that the optimal strategy is not prone to price slippage and outperforms naïve strategies.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2024

Risk Budgeting Allocation for Dynamic Risk Measures

We define and develop an approach for risk budgeting allocation - a risk diversification portfolio strategy - where risk is measured using a dynamic time-consistent risk measure. For this, we introduce a notion of dynamic risk contributions that generalise the classical Euler contributions and which allow us to obtain dynamic risk contributions in a recursive manner. We prove that, for the class of coherent dynamic distortion risk measures, the risk allocation problem may be recast as a sequence of strictly convex optimisation problems. Moreover, we show that self-financing dynamic risk budgeting strategies with initial wealth of 1 are scaled versions of the solution of the sequence of convex optimisation problems. Furthermore, we develop an actor-critic approach, leveraging the elicitability of dynamic risk measures, to solve for risk budgeting strategies using deep learning.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2024

On the lumpability of tree-valued Markov chains

Phylogenetic trees constitute an interesting class of objects for stochastic processes due to the non-standard nature of the space they inhabit. In particular, many statistical applications require the construction of Markov processes on the space of trees, whose cardinality grows superexponentially with the number of leaves considered. We investigate whether certain lower-dimensional projections of tree space preserve the Markov property in tree-valued Markov processes. We study exact lumpability of tree shapes and $\varepsilon$-lumpability of clades, exploiting the combinatorial structure of the SPR graph to obtain bounds on the lumping error under the random walk and Metropolis-Hastings processes. Finally, we show how to use these results in empirical investigation, leveraging exact and $\varepsilon$-lumpability to improve Monte Carlo estimation of tree-related quantities.

math.PR↗

arXiv2023

Optimal Trading with Signals and Stochastic Price Impact

Trading frictions are stochastic. They are, moreover, in many instances fast-mean reverting. Here, we study how to optimally trade in a market with stochastic price impact and study approximations to the resulting optimal control problem using singular perturbation methods. We prove, by constructing sub- and super-solutions, that the approximations are accurate to the specified order. Finally, we perform some numerical experiments to illustrate the effect that stochastic trading frictions have on optimal trading.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2022

Statistical Learning and Inverse Problems: A Stochastic Gradient Approach

Inverse problems are paramount in Science and Engineering. In this paper, we consider the setup of Statistical Inverse Problem (SIP) and demonstrate how Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithms can be used in the linear SIP setting. We provide consistency and finite sample bounds for the excess risk. We also propose a modification for the SGD algorithm where we leverage machine learning methods to smooth the stochastic gradients and improve empirical performance. We exemplify the algorithm in a setting of great interest nowadays: the Functional Linear Regression model. In this case we consider a synthetic data example and examples with a real data classification problem.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Functional Classification of Bitcoin Addresses

This paper proposes a classification model for predicting the main activity of bitcoin addresses based on their balances. Since the balances are functions of time, we apply methods from functional data analysis; more specifically, the features of the proposed classification model are the functional principal components of the data. Classifying bitcoin addresses is a relevant problem for two main reasons: to understand the composition of the bitcoin market, and to identify addresses used for illicit activities. Although other bitcoin classifiers have been proposed, they focus primarily on network analysis rather than curve behavior. Our approach, on the other hand, does not require any network information for prediction. Furthermore, functional features have the advantage of being straightforward to build, unlike expert-built features. Results show improvement when combining functional features with scalar features, and similar accuracy for the models using those features separately, which points to the functional model being a good alternative when domain-specific knowledge is not available.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Avoiding zero probability events when computing Value at Risk contributions

This paper is concerned with the process of risk allocation for a generic multivariate model when the risk measure is chosen as the Value-at-Risk (VaR). We recast the traditional Euler contributions from an expectation conditional on an event of zero probability to a ratio involving conditional expectations whose conditioning events have strictly positive probability. We derive an analytical form of the proposed representation of VaR contributions for various parametric models. Our numerical experiments show that the estimator using this novel representation outperforms the standard Monte Carlo estimator in terms of bias and variance. Moreover, unlike the existing estimators, the proposed estimator is free from hyperparameters under a parametric setting.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2020

Pricing Path-Dependent Derivatives under Multiscale Stochastic Volatility Models: a Malliavin Representation

In this paper we derive a efficient Monte Carlo approximation for the price of path-dependent derivatives under the multiscale stochastic volatility models of Fouque \textit{et al}. Using the formulation of this pricing problem under the functional Itô calculus framework and making use of Greek formulas from Malliavin calculus, we derive a representation for the first-order approximation of the price of path-dependent derivatives in the form $\mathbb{E}[\mbox{payoff} \times \mbox{weight}]$. The weight is known in closed form and depends only on the group market parameters arising from the calibration of the multiscale stochastic volatility to the market's implied volatility. Moreover, only simulations of the Black-Scholes model is required. We exemplify the method for a couple path-dependent derivatives.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2020

PDGM: a Neural Network Approach to Solve Path-Dependent Partial Differential Equations

In this paper, we propose a novel numerical method for Path-Dependent Partial Differential Equations (PPDEs). These equations firstly appeared in the seminal work of Dupire [2009], where the functional Itô calculus was developed to deal with path-dependent financial derivatives contracts. More specificaly, we generalize the Deep Galerking Method (DGM) of Sirignano and Spiliopoulos [2018] to deal with these equations. The method, which we call Path-Dependent DGM (PDGM), consists of using a combination of feed-forward and Long Short-Term Memory architectures to model the solution of the PPDE. We then analyze several numerical examples, many from the Financial Mathematics literature, that show the capabilities of the method under very different situations.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2019

Stochastic Control and Differential Games with Path-Dependent Influence of Controls on Dynamics and Running Cost

In this paper, we consider the functional Itô calculus framework to find a path-dependent version of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for stochastic control problems that feature dynamics and running cost that depend on the path of the control. We also prove a Dynamic Programming Principle for such problems. We apply our results to path-dependence of the delay type. We further study Stochastic Differential Games in this context.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Bayesian Approach for Parameter Estimation of Continuous-Time Stochastic Volatility Models using Fourier Transform Methods

We propose a two stage procedure for the estimation of the parameters of a fairly general, continuous-time stochastic volatility. An important ingredient of the proposed method is the Cuchiero-Teichmann volatility estimator, which is based on Fourier transforms and provides a continuous time estimate of the latent process. This estimate is then used to construct an approximate likelihood for the parameters of interest, whose restrictions are taken into account through prior distributions. The procedure is shown to be highly successful for constructing the posterior distribution of the parameters of a Heston model, while limited success is achieved when applied to the highly parametrized exponential-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck.

math.ST↗

arXiv2018

Stochastic Control with Delayed Information and Related Nonlinear Master Equation

In this paper we study stochastic control problems with delayed information, that is, the control at time $t$ can depend only on the information observed before time $t-H$ for some delay parameter $H$. Such delay occurs frequently in practice and can be viewed as a special case of partial observation. When the time duration $T$ is smaller than $H$, the problem becomes a deterministic control problem in stochastic setting. While seemingly simple, the problem involves certain time inconsistency issue, and the value function naturally relies on the distribution of the state process and thus is a solution to a nonlinear master equation. Consequently, the optimal state process solves a McKean-Vlasov SDE. In the general case that $T$ is larger than $H$, the master equation becomes path-dependent and the corresponding McKean-Vlasov SDE involves the conditional distribution of the state process. We shall build these connections rigorously, and obtain the existence of classical solution of these nonlinear (path-dependent) master equations in a special case.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Functional Ito Calculus, Path-dependence and the Computation of Greeks

Dupire's functional Itô calculus provides an alternative approach to the classical Malliavin calculus for the computation of sensitivities, also called Greeks, of path-dependent derivatives prices. In this paper, we introduce a measure of path-dependence of functionals within the functional Itô calculus framework. Namely, we consider the Lie bracket of the space and time functional derivatives, which we use to classify functionals accordingly to their degree of path-dependence. We then revisit the problem of efficient numerical computation of Greeks for path-dependent derivatives using integration by parts techniques. Special attention is paid to path-dependent functionals with zero Lie bracket, called locally weakly path-dependent functionals in our classification. Hence, we derive the weighted-expectation formulas for their Greeks. In the more general case of fully path-dependent functionals, we show that, equipped with the functional Itô calculus, we are able to analyze the effect of the Lie bracket on the computation of Greeks. Moreover, we are also able to consider the more general dynamics of path-dependent volatility. These were not achieved using Malliavin calculus.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2017

First-Order Asymptotics of Path-Dependent Derivatives in Multiscale Stochastic Volatility Environment

In this paper, we extend the first-order asymptotics analysis of Fouque et al. to general path-dependent financial derivatives using Dupire's functional Ito calculus. The main conclusion is that the market group parameters calibrated to vanilla options can be used to price to the same order exotic, path-dependent derivatives as well. Under general conditions, the first-order condition is represented by a conditional expectation that could be numerically evaluated. Moreover, if the path-dependence is not too severe, we are able to find path-dependent closed-form solutions equivalent to the fist-order approximation of path-independent options derived in Fouque et al. Additionally, we exemplify the results with Asian options and options on quadratic variation.

q-fin.PR↗