arXiv subjects

Yuriy Nevmyvaka

Publications and source records attributed to Yuriy Nevmyvaka.

46 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Empowering Time Series Analysis with Large Language Models: A Survey

Recently, remarkable progress has been made over large language models (LLMs), demonstrating their unprecedented capability in varieties of natural language tasks. However, completely training a large general-purpose model from the scratch is challenging for time series analysis, due to the large volumes and varieties of time series data, as well as the non-stationarity that leads to concept drift impeding continuous model adaptation and re-training. Recent advances have shown that pre-trained LLMs can be exploited to capture complex dependencies in time series data and facilitate various applications. In this survey, we provide a systematic overview of existing methods that leverage LLMs for time series analysis. Specifically, we first state the challenges and motivations of applying language models in the context of time series as well as brief preliminaries of LLMs. Next, we summarize the general pipeline for LLM-based time series analysis, categorize existing methods into different groups (i.e., direct query, tokenization, prompt design, fine-tune, and model integration), and highlight the key ideas within each group. We also discuss the applications of LLMs for both general and spatial-temporal time series data, tailored to specific domains. Finally, we thoroughly discuss future research opportunities to empower time series analysis with LLMs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Nearly Tight Bounds For Differentially Private Min $s$-$t$ and Multiway Cut

Finding min $s$-$t$ cuts in graphs is a basic algorithmic tool with applications in image segmentation, community detection, reinforcement learning, and data clustering. In this problem, we are given two nodes as terminals, and the goal is to remove the smallest number of edges from the graph so that these two terminals are disconnected. We study the complexity of differential privacy for the min $s$-$t$ cut problem and show nearly tight lower and upper bounds where we achieve privacy at no cost for running time efficiency. We also develop a differentially private algorithm for the multiway $k$-cut problem, in which we are given $k$ nodes as terminals that we would like to disconnect. As a function of $k$, we obtain privacy guarantees that are exponentially more efficient than applying the advanced composition theorem to known algorithms for multiway $k$-cut. Finally, we empirically evaluate the approximation of our differentially private min $s$-$t$ cut algorithm and show that it almost matches the quality of the output of non-private ones.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2023

Learning to Abstain From Uninformative Data

Learning and decision-making in domains with naturally high noise-to-signal ratio, such as Finance or Healthcare, is often challenging, while the stakes are very high. In this paper, we study the problem of learning and acting under a general noisy generative process. In this problem, the data distribution has a significant proportion of uninformative samples with high noise in the label, while part of the data contains useful information represented by low label noise. This dichotomy is present during both training and inference, which requires the proper handling of uninformative data during both training and testing. We propose a novel approach to learning under these conditions via a loss inspired by the selective learning theory. By minimizing this loss, the model is guaranteed to make a near-optimal decision by distinguishing informative data from uninformative data and making predictions. We build upon the strength of our theoretical guarantees by describing an iterative algorithm, which jointly optimizes both a predictor and a selector, and evaluates its empirical performance in a variety of settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Provably Convergent Schrödinger Bridge with Applications to Probabilistic Time Series Imputation

The Schrödinger bridge problem (SBP) is gaining increasing attention in generative modeling and showing promising potential even in comparison with the score-based generative models (SGMs). SBP can be interpreted as an entropy-regularized optimal transport problem, which conducts projections onto every other marginal alternatingly. However, in practice, only approximated projections are accessible and their convergence is not well understood. To fill this gap, we present a first convergence analysis of the Schrödinger bridge algorithm based on approximated projections. As for its practical applications, we apply SBP to probabilistic time series imputation by generating missing values conditioned on observed data. We show that optimizing the transport cost improves the performance and the proposed algorithm achieves the state-of-the-art result in healthcare and environmental data while exhibiting the advantage of exploring both temporal and feature patterns in probabilistic time series imputation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Short-term Temporal Dependency Detection under Heterogeneous Event Dynamic with Hawkes Processes

Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns. Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP), whose impact function naturally encodes a causal structure in Granger causality. However, the vast majority of existing methods use direct or nonlinear transform of standard MHP intensity with constant baseline, inconsistent with real-world data. Under irregular and unknown heterogeneous intensity, capturing temporal dependency is hard as one struggles to distinguish the effect of mutual interaction from that of intensity fluctuation. In this paper, we address the short-term temporal dependency detection issue. We show the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for cross-impact from MHP has an error that can not be eliminated but may be reduced by order of magnitude, using heterogeneous intensity not of the target HP but of the interacting HP. Then we proposed a robust and computationally-efficient method modified from MLE that does not rely on the prior estimation of the heterogeneous intensity and is thus applicable in a data-limited regime (e.g., few-shot, no repeated observations). Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our method outperforms existing ones by notable margins, with highlighted novel applications in neuroscience.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Modeling Temporal Data as Continuous Functions with Stochastic Process Diffusion

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Do price trajectory data increase the efficiency of market impact estimation?

Market impact is an important problem faced by large institutional investor and active market participant. In this paper, we rigorously investigate whether price trajectory data from the metaorder increases the efficiency of estimation, from an asymptotic view of statistical estimation. We show that, for popular market impact models, estimation methods based on partial price trajectory data, especially those containing early trade prices, can outperform established estimation methods (e.g., VWAP-based) asymptotically. We discuss theoretical and empirical implications of such phenomenon, and how they could be readily incorporated into practice.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2012

Censored Exploration and the Dark Pool Problem

We introduce and analyze a natural algorithm for multi-venue exploration from censored data, which is motivated by the Dark Pool Problem of modern quantitative finance. We prove that our algorithm converges in polynomial time to a near-optimal allocation policy; prior results for similar problems in stochastic inventory control guaranteed only asymptotic convergence and examined variants in which each venue could be treated independently. Our analysis bears a strong resemblance to that of efficient exploration/ exploitation schemes in the reinforcement learning literature. We describe an extensive experimental evaluation of our algorithm on the Dark Pool Problem using real trading data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2010

Empirical Limitations on High Frequency Trading Profitability

Addressing the ongoing examination of high-frequency trading practices in financial markets, we report the results of an extensive empirical study estimating the maximum possible profitability of the most aggressive such practices, and arrive at figures that are surprisingly modest. By "aggressive" we mean any trading strategy exclusively employing market orders and relatively short holding periods. Our findings highlight the tension between execution costs and trading horizon confronted by high-frequency traders, and provide a controlled and large-scale empirical perspective on the high-frequency debate that has heretofore been absent. Our study employs a number of novel empirical methods, including the simulation of an "omniscient" high-frequency trader who can see the future and act accordingly.

q-fin.TR↗