arXiv subjects

Yusuke Ebihara

Publications and source records attributed to Yusuke Ebihara.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

The Extreme Space Weather Event of 1872 February: Sunspots, Magnetic Disturbance, and Auroral Displays

We review observations of solar activity, geomagnetic variation, and auroral visibility for the extreme geomagnetic storm on 1872 February 4. The extreme storm (referred to here as the Chapman-Silverman storm) apparently originated from a complex active region of moderate area (\approx 500 {\mu}sh) that was favorably situated near disk center (S19{\deg} E05{\deg}). There is circumstantial evidence for an eruption from this region at 9--10 UT on 1872 February 3, based on the location, complexity, and evolution of the region, and on reports of prominence activations, which yields a plausible transit time of \approx29 hr to Earth. Magnetograms show that the storm began with a sudden commencement at \approx14:27 UT and allow a minimum Dst estimate of {\pounds} -834 nT. Overhead aurorae were credibly reported at Jacobabad (British India) and Shanghai (China), both at 19{\deg}.9 in magnetic latitude (MLAT) and 24{\deg}. 2 in invariant latitude (ILAT). Auroral visibility was reported from 13 locations with MLAT below |20|{\deg} for the 1872 storm (ranging from |10{\deg}. 0|--|19{\deg}. 9| MLAT) versus one each for the 1859 storm (|17{\deg}. 3| MLAT) and the 1921 storm (|16.{\deg}2| MLAT). The auroral extension and conservative storm intensity indicate a magnetic storm of comparable strength to the extreme storms of 1859 September (25{\deg}.1 \pm 0{\deg}.5 ILAT and -949 \pm 31 nT) and 1921 May (27{\deg}.1 ILAT and -907 \pm 132 nT), which places the 1872 storm among the three largest magnetic storms yet observed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

The Solar and Geomagnetic Storms in May 2024: A Flash Data Report

In May 2024, the scientific community observed intense solar eruptions that resulted in a great geomagnetic storm and auroral extension, highlighting the need to document and quantify these events. This study mainly focuses on their quantification. The source active region (AR 13664) evolved from 113 to 2761 millionths of the solar hemisphere between 4 May and 14 May. AR 13664's magnetic free energy surpassed 10^33 erg on 7 May, triggering 12 X-class flares on 8 -- 15 May. Multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) were produced from this AR, accelerating solar energetic particles toward Earth. According to satellite and interplanetary scintillation data, at least 4 ICMEs erupted from 13664 eventually overcoming each other and combining. The shock arrival at 17:05 UT on 10 May significantly compressed the magnetosphere down to ~ 5.04 RE, and triggered a deep Forbush Decrease. GOES satellite data and ground-based neutron monitors confirmed a ground-level enhancement from 2 UT to 10 UT on 11 May 2024. The ICMEs induced exceptional geomagnetic storms, peaking at a Dst index of -412 nT at 2 UT on 11 May, marking the sixth-largest storm since 1957. The AE and AL indices showed great auroral extensions that located the AE/AL stations into the polar cap. We gathered auroral records at that time and reconstructed the equatorward boundary of the visual auroral oval to 29.8{\deg} invariant latitude. We compared naked-eye and camera auroral visibility, providing critical caveats on their difference. We also confirmed global enhancements of storm-enhanced density of the ionosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Detection of magnetospheric ion drift patterns at Mars

Mars lacks a global magnetic field, and instead possesses small-scale crustal magnetic fields, making its magnetic environment fundamentally different from intrinsic magnetospheres like those of Earth or Saturn. Here we report the discovery of magnetospheric ion drift patterns, typical of intrinsic magnetospheres, at Mars usingmeasurements fromMarsAtmosphere and Volatile EvolutioNmission. Specifically, we observewedge-like dispersion structures of hydrogen ions exhibiting butterfly-shaped distributions within the Martian crustal fields, a feature previously observed only in planetary-scale intrinsic magnetospheres. These dispersed structures are the results of driftmotions that fundamentally resemble those observed in intrinsic magnetospheres. Our findings indicate that the Martian magnetosphere embodies an intermediate case where both the unmagnetized and magnetized ion behaviors could be observed because of the wide range of strengths and spatial scales of the crustal magnetic fields around Mars.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

A Review for Japanese auroral records on the three extreme space weather events around the International Geophysical Year (1957 -- 1958)

Solar Cycle 19 was probably the greatest solar cycle over the last four centuries and significantly disrupted the solar-terrestrial environments with a number of solar eruptions and resultant geomagnetic storms. At its peak, the International Geophysical Year (IGY: 1957 -- 1958) was organised by international collaborations and benefitted scientific developments, capturing multiple unique extreme space weather events including the third and fourth greatest geomagnetic storms in the space age. In this article, we review and analyse original records of Japanese auroral observations around the IGY. These observations were organised by Masaaki Huruhata in collaboration with professional observatories and citizen contributors. We have digitised and documented these source documents, which comprise significant auroral displays in March 1957 (minimum Dst = -255 nT), September 1957 (minimum Dst = -427 nT), and February 1958 (minimum Dst = -426 nT). These records allow us to visualise temporal and spatial evolutions of these auroral displays, reconstruct their equatorward auroral boundaries down to 41.4{\deg}, 38.3{\deg}, and 33.3{\deg} in invariant latitudes, and contextualise their occurrences following contemporary geomagnetic disturbances. Our results have been compared with significant auroral displays during other extreme space weather events. These aurorae generally showed reddish colourations occasionally with yellowish rays. Their colourations are attributed to reddish oxygen emission and its mixture with greenish oxygen emission. Overall, these archival records provide the references for future discussions on the auroral activities during the uniquely intense and extreme space weather events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Temporal Variations of the Three Geomagnetic Field Components at Colaba Observatory around the Carrington Storm in 1859

The Carrington storm in 1859 September has been arguably identified as the greatest geomagnetic storm ever recorded. However, its exact magnitude and chronology remain controversial, while their source data have been derived from the Colaba H magnetometer. Here, we have located the Colaba 1859 yearbook, containing hourly measurements and spot measurements. We have reconstructed the Colaba geomagnetic disturbances in the horizontal component ({\Delta}H), the eastward component ({\Delta}Y), and the vertical component ({\Delta}Z) around the time of the Carrington storm. On their basis, we have chronologically revised the ICME transit time as =< 17.1 hrs and located the {\Delta}H peak at 06:20 -- 06:25 UT, revealing a magnitude discrepancy between the hourly and spot measurements (-1691 nT vs. -1263 nT). Furthermore, we have newly derived the time series of {\Delta}Y and {\Delta}Z, which peaked at {\Delta}Y ~ 378 nT (05:50 UT) and 377 nT (06:25 UT), and {\Delta}Z ~ -173 nT (06:40 UT). We have also computed the hourly averages and removed the solar quiet (Sq) field variations from each geomagnetic component to derive their hourly variations with latitudinal weighting. Our calculations have resulted in the disturbance variations (Dist) with latitudinal weighting of Dist Y ~ 328 nT and Dist Z ~ -36 nT, and three scenarios of Dist H ~ -918, -979, and -949 nT, which also approximate the minimum Dst. These data may suggest preconditioning of the geomagnetic field after the August storm ({\Delta}H =< -570 nT), which made the September storm even more geoeffective.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

The intensity and evolution of the extreme storms in January 1938

Major solar eruptions occasionally direct interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to Earth and cause significant geomagnetic storms and low-latitude aurorae. While single extreme storms are of significant threats to the modern civilization, storms occasionally appear in sequence and, acting synergistically, cause 'perfect storms' at Earth. The stormy interval in January 1938 was one of such cases. Here, we analyze the contemporary records to reveal its time series on their source active regions, solar eruptions, ICMEs, geomagnetic storms, low-latitude aurorae, and cosmic-ray (CR) variations. Geomagnetic records show that three storms occurred successively on 17/18 January (Dcx ~ -171 nT) on 21/22 January (Dcx ~ -328 nT) and on 25/26 January (Dcx ~ -336 nT). The amplitudes of the cosmic-ray variations and sudden storm commencements show the impact of the first ICME as the largest (~ 6% decrease in CR and 72 nT in SSC) and the ICME associated with the storms that followed as more moderate (~ 3% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC; ~ 2% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC). Interestingly, a significant solar proton event occurred on 16/17 January and the Cheltenham ionization chamber showed a possible ground level enhancement. During the first storm, aurorae were less visible at mid-latitudes, whereas during the second and third storms, the equatorward boundaries of the auroral oval were extended down to 40.3° and 40.0° in invariant latitude. This contrast shows that the initial ICME was probably faster, with a higher total magnitude but a smaller southward component.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

The Extreme Space Weather Event in February/March 1941

Given the infrequency of extreme geomagnetic storms, it is significant to note the concentration of three extreme geomagnetic storms in 1941, whose intensities ranked fourth, twelfth, and fifth within the aa index between 1868-2010. Among them, the geomagnetic storm on 1 March 1941 was so intense that three of the four Dst station magnetograms went off scale. Herein, we reconstruct its time series and measure the storm intensity with an alternative Dst estimate (Dst*). The source solar eruption at 09:29 - 09:38 GMT on 28 February was located at RGO AR 13814 and its significant intensity is confirmed by large magnetic crochets of 35 nT measured at Abinger. This solar eruption most likely released a fast interplanetary coronal mass ejection with estimated speed 2260 km/s. After its impact at 03:57 - 03:59 GMT on 1 March, an extreme magnetic storm was recorded worldwide. Comparative analyses on the contemporary magnetograms show the storm peak intensity of minimum Dst* < -464 nT at 16 GMT, comparable to the most and the second most extreme magnetic storms within the standard Dst index since 1957. This storm triggered significant low-latitude aurorae in the East Asian sector and their equatorward boundary has been reconstructed as 38.5° in invariant latitude. This result agrees with British magnetograms which indicate auroral oval moving above Abinger at 53.0° in magnetic latitude. The storm amplitude was even more enhanced in equatorial stations and consequently casts caveats on their usage for measurements of the storm intensity in Dst estimates.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

Candidate Auroral Observations during the Major Solar-Terrestrial Storm in May 1680: Implication for Space Weather Events during the Maunder Minimum

The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) is currently considered the only grand minimum within telescopic sunspot observations since 1610. During this epoch, the Sun was extremely quiet and unusually free from sunspots. However, despite reduced frequency, candidate aurorae were reported in the mid-European sector during this period and have been associated with occurrences of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), whereas some of them have been identified as misinterpretations. Here, we have analysed reports of candidate aurorae on 1 June 1680 with simultaneous observations in mid-Europe, and compared their descriptions with visual accounts of early modern aurorae. Most contemporary sunspot drawings from 22, 24, and 27 May 1680 have shown that this apparent sunspot may have been a source of ICMEs, which caused the reported candidate aurorae. On the other hand, its intensity estimate shows that the magnetic storm during this candidate aurora was probably within the capability of the storms derived from the corotating interaction region (CIR). Therefore, we accommodate both ICMEs and CIRs as their possible origin. This interpretation is probably applicable to the candidate aurorae in the often-cited Hungarian catalogue, on the basis of the reconstructed margin of their equatorward auroral boundary. Moreover, this catalogue itself has clarified that the considerable candidates during the MM were probably misinterpretations. Therefore, frequency of the auroral visibility in Hungary was probably lower than previously considered and agree more with the generally slow solar wind in the existing reconstructions, whereas sporadic occurrences of sunspots and coronal holes still caused occasional geomagnetic storms.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

South American auroral reports during the Carrington storm

The importance of the investigation of magnetic superstorms is not limited to academic interest, because these superstorms can cause catastrophic impact on the modern civilisation due to our increasing dependency on technological infrastructure. In this context, the Carrington storm in September 1859 is considered as a benchmark of observational history owing to its magnetic disturbance and equatorial extent of the auroral oval. So far, several recent auroral reports at that time have been published but those reports are mainly derived from the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we analyse datable auroral reports from South America and its vicinity, assess the auroral extent using philological and astrometric approaches, identify the auroral visibility at - 17.3° magnetic latitude and further poleward and reconstruct the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval to be 25.1° +/- 0.5° in invariant latitude. Interestingly, brighter and more colourful auroral displays were reported in the South American sector than in the Northern Hemisphere. This north-south asymmetry is presumably associated with variations of their magnetic longitude and the weaker magnetic field over South America compared to the magnetic conjugate point and the increased amount of magnetospheric electron precipitation into the upper atmosphere. These results attest that the magnitude of the Carrington storm indicates that its extent falls within the range of other superstorms, such as those that occurred in May 1921 and February 1872, in terms of the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Extreme Space Weather Events Recorded in History

This section shows an overview of a recent development of the studies on great space weather events in history. Its discussion starts from the Carrington event and compare its intensity with the extreme storms within the coverage of the regular magnetic measurements. Extending its analyses back beyond their onset, this section shows several case studies of extreme storms with sunspot records in the telescopic observations and candidate auroral records in historical records. Before the onset of telescopic observations, this section shows the chronological coverages of the records of unaided-eye sunspot and candidate aurorae and several case studies on their basis.

physics.hist-ph↗

arXiv2020

The Extreme Space Weather Event in 1903 October/November: An Outburst from the Quiet Sun

While the Sun is generally more eruptive during its maximum and declining phases, observational evidence shows certain cases of powerful solar eruptions during the quiet phase of the solar activity. Occurring in the weak Solar Cycle 14 just after its minimum, the extreme space weather event in 1903 October -- November was one of these cases. Here, we reconstruct the time series of geomagnetic activity based on contemporary observational records. With the mid-latitude magnetograms, the 1903 magnetic storm is thought to be caused by a fast coronal mass ejection (~1500 km/s) and is regarded as an intense event with an estimated minimum Dst' of ~-513 nT The reconstructed time series has been compared with the equatorward extension of auroral oval (~44.1° in invariant latitude) and the time series of telegraphic disturbances. This case study shows that potential threats posed by extreme space weather events exist even during weak solar cycles or near their minima.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

The Earliest Candidates of Auroral Observations in Assyrian Astrological Reports: Insights on Solar Activity around 660 BCE

Auroral records found in historical archives and cosmogenic isotopes found in natural archives have served as sound proxies of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs), respectively, for dates prior to the onset of telescopic sunspot observations in 1610. These space weather events constitute a significant threat to a modern civilization, because of its increasing dependency on an electronic infrastructure. Recent studies have identified multiple extreme space weather events derived from solar energetic particles (SEPs) in natural archives, such as the event in 660 BCE. While the level of solar activity around 660 BCE is of great interest, this had not been within the coverage of the hitherto-known datable auroral records in historical documents that extend back to the 6th century BCE. Therefore, we have examined Assyrian astrological reports in the 8th and 7th centuries BCE, identified three observational reports of candidate aurorae, and dated these reports to approximately 680 BCE -- 650 BCE. The Assyrian cuneiform tablets let us extend the history of auroral records and solar activity by a century. These cuneiform reports are considered to be the earliest datable records of candidate aurorae and they support the concept of enhanced solar activity suggested by the cosmogenic isotopes from natural archives.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Temporal and Spatial Evolutions of a Large Sunspot Group and Great Auroral Storms around the Carrington Event in 1859

The Carrington event is considered to be one of the most extreme space weather events in observational history within a series of magnetic storms caused by extreme interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from a large and complex active region (AR) emerged on the solar disk. In this article, we study the temporal and spatial evolutions of the source sunspot active region and visual aurorae, and compare this storm with other extreme space weather events on the basis of their spatial evolution. Sunspot drawings by Schwabe, Secchi, and Carrington describe the position and morphology of the source AR at that time. Visual auroral reports from the Russian Empire, Iberia, Ireland, Oceania, and Japan fill the spatial gap of auroral visibility and revise the time series of auroral visibility in mid to low magnetic latitudes (MLATs). The reconstructed time series is compared with magnetic measurements and shows the correspondence between low to mid latitude aurorae and the phase of magnetic storms. The spatial evolution of the auroral oval is compared with those of other extreme space weather events in 1872, 1909, 1921, and 1989 as well as their storm intensity, and contextualizes the Carrington event, as one of the most extreme space weather events, but likely not unique.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Occurrence of Great Magnetic Storms on 6-8 March 1582

Although knowing the occurrence frequency of severe space weather events is important for a modern society, it is insufficiently known due to the lack of magnetic or sunspot observations, before the Carrington event in 1859 known as one of the largest events during the last two centuries. Here, we show that a severe magnetic storm occurred on 8 March 1582 based on auroral records in East Asia. The equatorward boundary of auroral visibility reached 28.8° magnetic latitude. The equatorward boundary of the auroral oval is estimated to be 33.0° invariant latitude (ILAT), which is comparable to the storms on 25/26 September 1909 (~31.6° ILAT, minimum Dst of -595 nT), 28/29 August 1859 (~36.5° ILAT), and 13/14 March 1989 (~40° ILAT, minimum Dst of -589 nT). Assuming that the equatorward boundary is a proxy for the scale of magnetic storms, we presume that the storm on March 1582 was severe. We also found that the storm on March 1582 lasted, at least, for three days by combining European records. The auroral oval stayed at mid-latitude for the first two days and moved to low-latitude (in East Asia) for the last day. It is plausible that the storm was caused by a series of ICMEs (interplanetary coronal mass ejections). We can reasonably speculate that a first ICME could have cleaned up interplanetary space to make the following ICMEs more geo-effective, as probably occurred in the Carrington and Halloween storms.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Intense geomagnetic storm during Maunder minimum possibly by a quiescent filament eruption

The sun occasionally undergoes the so-called grand minima, in which its magnetic activity, measured by the number of sunspots, is suppressed for decades. The most prominent grand minima, since the beginning of telescopic observations of sunspots, is the Maunder minimum (1645-1715), when the sunspots became rather scarce. The mechanism underlying the grand minima remains poorly understood as there is little observational information of the solar magnetic field at that time. In this study, we examine the records of one candidate aurora display in China and Japan during the Maunder minimum. The presence of auroras in such mid magnetic latitudes indicates the occurrence of great geomagnetic storms that are usually produced by strong solar flares. However, the records of contemporary sunspot observations from Europe suggest that, at least for the likely aurora event, there was no large sunspot that could produce a strong flare. Through simple theoretical arguments, we show that this geomagnetic storm could have been generated by an eruption giant quiescent filament, or a series of such events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Do the Chinese Astronomical Records Dated AD 776 January 12/13 Describe an Auroral Display or a Lunar Halo? A Critical Re-examination

The enhancement of carbon-14 in tree rings around AD 774/775 has generated wide interest in solar activity at that time. The historical auroral records have been examined critically. Of particular interest was the "white vapour" observed in China on AD 776 January 12/13. Both Usoskin et al. (2013, Astron. Astrophys. 55, L3; U13) and Stephenson (2015, Adv. Sp. Res. 55, 1537; S15) interpreted this record as an auroral display. Subsequently, Neuhäuser and Neuhäuser (2015, Astron. Nachr. 336, 225; NN15) proposed five "criteria" for the likeliness of aurorae and on this basis rejected an auroral interpretation. Instead, they interpreted it as a lunar halo, and suggested there were no auroral records as a proxy of solar activity in the interval AD 774-785. We consider if their "lunar halo hypothesis" and their auroral criteria could be of use in future researches on historical auroral candidates. We first show a counter-example for the lunar halo hypothesis from a parallel record on 1882 November 17, which was seen as a whitish colour, in the southerly direction, and near the Moon. We then consider NN15's criteria on colour, direction, and sky brightness and investigate other counter-examples from early-modern auroral observations. We also consider the extension of the white vapour in AD 776 according to the distribution of Chinese asterisms, and show that its large extension was inconsistent with the lunar halo hypothesis. Conversely, the streaks of white vapour penetrating the eight Chinese asterisms can be reproduced if we consider auroral-ray structures at altitudes between 97 km and 170 km, along geomagnetic field lines between the L-shells L=1.55 and 1.64. Our investigations show that we should consider candidate auroral records in historical documents not on the basis of the newly suggested a priori criteria by NN15 but on all the available observational evidence.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

The Celestial Sign in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle in the 770s: Insights on Contemporary Solar Activity

The anomalous concentration of radiocarbon in 774/775 attracted intense discussion on its origin, including the possible extreme solar event(s) exceeding any events in observational history. Anticipating such extreme solar events, auroral records were also surveyed in historical documents and those including the red celestial sign after sunset in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (ASC) were subjected to consideration. Usoskin et al. (2013: U13) interpreted this record as an aurora and suggested enhanced solar activity around 774/775. Conversely, Neuhauser and Neuhauser (2015a, 2015b: N15a and N15b) interpreted "after sunset" as during sunset or twilight; they considered this sign as a halo display and suggested a solar minimum around 774. However, so far these records have not been discussed in comparison with eyewitness auroral records during the known extreme space-weather events, although they were discussed in relationship with potential extreme events in 774/775. Therefore, we reconstruct the observational details based on the original records in the ASC and philological references, compare them with eyewitness auroral observations during known extreme space-weather events, and consider contemporary solar activity. We clarify the observation was indeed "after sunset", reject the solar halo hypothesis, define the observational time span between 25 Mar. 775 and 25 Dec. 777, and note the parallel halo drawing in 806 in the ASC shown in N15b was not based on the original observation in England. We show examples of eyewitness auroral observations during twilight in known space-weather events, and this celestial sign does not contradict the observational evidence. Accordingly, we consider this event happened after the onset of the event in 774/775, but shows relatively enhanced solar activity, with other historical auroral records in the mid-770s, as also confirmed by the Be data from ice cores.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Low-Latitude Aurorae during the Extreme Space Weather Events in 1859

The Carrington storm (September 1/2, 1859) is one of the largest magnetic storms ever observed and it has caused global auroral displays in low-latitude areas, together with a series of multiple magnetic storms during August 28 and September 4, 1859. In this study, we revisit contemporary auroral observation records to extract information on their elevation angle, color, and direction to investigate this stormy interval in detail. We first examine their equatorward boundary of "auroral emission with multiple colors" based on descriptions of elevation angle and color. We find that their locations were 36.5 deg ILAT on August 28/29 and 32.7 deg ILAT on September 1/2, suggesting that trapped electrons moved to, at least, L~1.55 and L~1.41, respectively. The equatorward boundary of "purely red emission" was likely located at 30.8 deg ILAT on September 1/2. If "purely red emission" was a stable auroral red arc, it would suggest that trapped protons moved to, at least, L~1.36. This reconstruction with observed auroral emission regions provides conservative estimations of magnetic storm intensities. We compare the auroral records with magnetic observations. We confirm that multiple magnetic storms occurred during this stormy interval, and that the equatorward expansion of the auroral oval is consistent with the timing of magnetic disturbances. It is possible that the August 28/29 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) cleared out the interplanetary medium, making the ICMEs for the Carrington storm on September 1/2 more geoeffective.

physics.space-ph↗