arXiv subjects

Yuta Okada

Publications and source records attributed to Yuta Okada.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Computing the final epidemic size distributions of a multi-type Galton--Watson process

The Galton--Watson process (GWP) is a discrete-time branching process model that provides a powerful tool for analyzing epidemic data and estimating key epidemiological parameters such as the basic reproduction number. When used with surveillance-based cluster size data, the GWP can also elicit information about the extent of transmission heterogeneity, even when each transmission process is not directly observable. When cluster size distribution data are available, the parameters that govern the transmission can be statistically inferred by using the probability mass function that corresponds to the observed cluster size data. For multi-type GWPs, however, real-world applications remain limited, possibly because of the absence of conceptually and practically straightforward approaches for deriving the closed-form solution of the final size distribution. In the present study, we propose a framework for computing the final size distribution of multi-type GWPs, using a method for the choice of the Cauchy integral contour. We provide examples of how our framework can be applied to both simulated data and real-world data of Middle East respiratory syndrome, and discuss potential pitfalls surrounding the identifiability of parameters for statistical inference when using likelihoods that are not conditioned on extinction.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Spectral and photometric variability of SS 433 observed with XRISM and simultaneous optical and near-infrared telescopes

We present results from coordinated multiwavelength observations of the SS 433, obtained with XRISM, optical telescopes, and near-infrared camera during 2024 April and 2025 March. The XRISM exposures amounted to ~200 ks in 2024 and ~100 ks in 2025. With XRISM/Resolve's high spectral resolution and large effective area, we clearly resolved numerous emission lines even in short time segments, achieving improved accuracy in Doppler-shift measurements relative to earlier observations. The simultaneously obtained X-ray and optical Doppler shifts suggest a possible tendency for the optical emission to lag slightly behind the X-rays. In the Resolve data, the Doppler shifts of the two jet components exhibited apparent asymmetries, with jet speeds fluctuating around ~0.26$\pm$0.01$c$ in 2024 and ~0.30$\pm$0.01$c$ in 2025. The velocity variations indicated modulations on a timescale of ~6.3 d, with a phase offset of about -90$^{\circ}$ relative to the nutation cycle. The observed line widths and flux of the approaching and receding jets appear consistent with the expected geometrical effects, indicating systematically larger line widths in the inner regions of the jets, as proposed by Shidatsu et al. (2025). Optical light curves show flares of ~400 s in 2024 and ~1600 s in 2025, with amplitudes up to ~15% during out-of-eclipse intervals, while the XRISM/Xtend light curves show no significant variability within the overlapping intervals and given the statistical uncertainties. Near-infrared photometry in 2024, obtained during an out-of-eclipse interval at a different epoch from the optical observations, showed no flare-like variability, and the X-ray band also remained constant within uncertainties. These coordinated observations provide a foundation for future XRISM studies aimed at probing the dynamical properties of the relativistic jets in SS 433.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

XRISM High-resolution Spectroscopy of SS 433: Evidence of Decreasing Line-of-Sight Velocity Dispersion along the Jet

We report on the jet structure in SS 433 based on X-ray high resolution spectroscopy with the XRISM/Resolve. The source was observed over 5 days covering both inside and outside an eclipse of the compact object by the companion star. Doppler-shifted, ionized Fe and Ni K emission lines were resolved, as well as lower-energy lines including Si and S K lines. Time-resolved spectral analysis showed that Fe and Ni K line widths were $1020 \pm 40$ km s$^{-1}$ (corresponding the 1$\sigma$ width) in the eclipse phase, gradually increased during the egress, and reached $1740 \pm 30$ km s$^{-1}$ outside the eclipse. A time-averaged spectrum outside the eclipse confirmed that the Fe and Ni K lines in 5.5-9 keV are significantly broader than the Si and S K$\alpha$ emission lines in 2--4 keV. Specifically, the width in 5.5-9 keV was measured to be $1900 \pm 80$ km s$^{-1}$, whereas the width in 2-4 keV is $1300^{+300}_{-400}$ km s$^{-1}$ for the approaching (blueshifted) jet component. These results indicate that radial velocity dispersion of the jet plasma in SS 433 decreases as it moves outward. We interpret this variation as progressive jet collimation along its axis, as suggested by Namiki et al. (2003), or a decrease in turbulence in the jet plasma flow within the X-ray emitting region. We also detected a clear difference in velocity dispersion between the approaching and receding (redshifted) jet components in the 5.5-9 keV band outside eclipse. The receding jet exhibited a smaller velocity dispersion ($1400 \pm 200$ km s$^{-1}$) than the approaching jet. Since the observation was conducted when the approaching jet was tilted toward the observer, this may suggest that the receding jet was more extensively occulted by the accretion disk.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

AGN outflows and their properties in Mrk 766 as revealed by KOOLS-IFU on the Seimei Telescope

We present the emission-line flux distributions and their ratios, as well as the gas outflow features, of the innermost 2 kpc region of the type 1 Seyfert galaxy Mrk 766, using the Kyoto Okayama Optical Low-dispersion Spectrograph with an optical-fiber integral field unit on the Seimei Telescope. We find that the central region of Mrk 766 is kinematically disturbed, exhibiting asymmetric and radially distributed AGN-driven ionized gas outflows traced by \OIII\ with velocities exceeding 500 \kms. The mass of the ionized gas outflow is estimated to be $10^{4.65-5.95} M_{\odot}$, and the mass outflow rate is $0.14-2.73$ M${\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$. This corresponds to a kinetic power, $\dot{E}_{\rm K}$, of $4.31 \times 10^{40} \ {\rm erg} \ {\rm s^{-1}}< \dot{E}_{\rm K} < 8.62 \times 10^{41} \ {\rm erg} \ {\rm s^{-1}}$, which is equivalent to $0.08\%-1.53\%$ of the bolometric luminosity, $L_{\rm bol}$. This result is consistent with other observed properties of ionized gas outflows, although it is lower than the theoretical predictions in AGN feedback models ($\sim5\%$), implying that ionized gas outflows traced by \OIII\ represent only a minor fraction of the total outflows ejected from the host galaxy. Given the asymmetric and radially distributed outflow signatures observed across the host galaxy within the limited field of view, the maximum distance the outflowing gas has traveled remains an open question.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2011

The cross-correlation search for a hot spot of gravitational waves : Numerical study for point spread function

The cross-correlation search for gravitational wave, which is known as 'radiometry', has been previously applied to map of the gravitational wave stochastic background in the sky and also to target on gravitational wave from rotating neutron stars/pulsars. We consider the Virgo cluster where may be appear as `hot spot' spanning few pixels in the sky in radiometry analysis. Our results show that sufficient signal to noise ratio can be accumulated with integration times of the order of a year. We also construct numerical simulation of radiometry analysis, assuming current constructing/upgrading ground-based detectors. Point spread function of the injected sources are confirmed by numerical test. Typical resolution of radiometry analysis is a few square degree which corresponds to several thousand pixels of sky mapping.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2011

The cross-correlation search for a hot spot of gravitational waves

The cross-correlation search has been previously applied to map the gravitational wave (GW) stochastic background in the sky and also to target GW from rotating neutron stars/pulsars. Here we investigate how the cross-correlation method can be used to target a small region in the sky spanning at most a few pixels, where a pixel in the sky is determined by the diffraction limit which depends on the (i) baseline joining a pair of detectors and (ii) detector bandwidth. Here as one of the promising targets, we consider the Virgo cluster - a "hot spot" spanning few pixels - which could contain, as estimates suggest $\sim 10^{11}$ neutron stars, of which a small fraction would continuously emit GW in the bandwidth of the detectors. For the detector baselines, we consider advanced detector pairs among LCGT, LIGO, Virgo, ET etc. Our results show that sufficient signal to noise can be accumulated with integration times of the order of a year. The results improve for the multibaseline search. This analysis could as well be applied to other likely hot spots in the sky and other possible pairs of detectors.

gr-qc↗