arXiv subjects

Yuta Shikuri

Publications and source records attributed to Yuta Shikuri.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Surrogate Graph Partitioning for Spatial Prediction

Spatial prediction refers to the estimation of unobserved values from spatially distributed observations. Although recent advances have improved the capacity to model diverse observation types, adoption in practice remains limited in industries that demand interpretability. To mitigate this gap, surrogate models that explain black-box predictors provide a promising path toward interpretable decision making. In this study, we propose a graph partitioning problem to construct spatial segments that minimize the sum of within-segment variances of individual predictions. The assignment of data points to segments can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem. While this formulation potentially enables the identification of exact segments, its computational complexity becomes prohibitive as the number of data points increases. Motivated by this challenge, we develop an approximation scheme that leverages the structural properties of graph partitioning. Experimental results demonstrate the computational efficiency of this approximation in identifying spatial segments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Learning Survival Models with Right-Censored Reporting Delays

Survival analysis provides statistical methods to model the time until an event occurs. Reporting delays arise when event times are not observed at their occurrence but are only revealed upon reporting. This issue is particularly critical for timely risk evaluation when the observation window is short due to administrative censoring. In this study, we incorporate right-censored reporting delays by jointly modeling parametric hazards for the event and reporting processes. We then construct a consistent estimator for the model parameters and develop a Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm to compute it. To address the challenges posed by administrative censoring, we leverage these findings and propose a transfer-learning procedure. Experimental results demonstrate that our method improves the accuracy of timely risk evaluation under administrative censoring.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Decomposed Quadratization: Efficient QUBO Formulation for Learning Bayesian Network

Algorithms and hardware for solving quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problems have made significant recent progress. This advancement has focused attention on formulating combinatorial optimization problems as quadratic polynomials. To improve the performance of solving large QUBO problems, it is essential to minimize the number of binary variables used in the objective function. In this paper, we propose a QUBO formulation that offers a bit capacity advantage over conventional quadratization techniques. As a key application, this formulation significantly reduces the number of binary variables required for score-based Bayesian network structure learning. Experimental results on $16$ instances, ranging from $37$ to $223$ variables, demonstrate that our approach requires notably fewer binary variables than quadratization. Moreover, an annealing machine that implement our formulation have outperformed existing algorithms in score maximization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Learning from Summarized Data: Gaussian Process Regression with Sample Quasi-Likelihood

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit from this development. Difficulties still arise when we can only access summarized data consisting of representative features, summary statistics, and data point counts. Such situations frequently occur primarily due to concerns about confidentiality and management costs associated with spatial data. This study tackles learning and inference using only summarized data within the framework of Gaussian process regression. To address this challenge, we analyze the approximation errors in the marginal likelihood and posterior distribution that arise from utilizing representative features. We also introduce the concept of sample quasi-likelihood, which facilitates learning and inference using only summarized data. Non-Gaussian likelihoods satisfying certain assumptions can be captured by specifying a variance function that characterizes a sample quasi-likelihood function. Theoretical and experimental results demonstrate that the approximation performance is influenced by the granularity of summarized data relative to the length scale of covariance functions. Experiments on a real-world dataset highlight the practicality of our method for spatial modeling.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Likelihood-Free Gaussian Process for Regression

Gaussian process regression can flexibly represent the posterior distribution of an interest parameter given sufficient information on the likelihood. However, in some cases, we have little knowledge regarding the probability model. For example, when investing in a financial instrument, the probability model of cash flow is generally unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called the likelihood-free Gaussian process (LFGP), which allows representation of the posterior distributions of interest parameters for scalable problems without directly setting their likelihood functions. The LFGP establishes clusters in which the value of the interest parameter can be considered approximately identical, and it approximates the likelihood of the interest parameter in each cluster to a Gaussian using the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. We expect that the proposed framework will contribute significantly to likelihood-free modeling, particularly by reducing the assumptions for the probability model and the computational costs for scalable problems.

cs.LG↗