arXiv subjects

Yutaro Yamada

Publications and source records attributed to Yutaro Yamada.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into scientific forecasting in frontier AI

AI systems are increasingly used to support forward-looking scientific judgment, but it remains unclear whether they can form reliable expectations about future scientific advances. Here we show that strong scientific reasoning does not reliably translate into accurate forecasting of future scientific advances. To study this question, we introduce CUSP, a temporally grounded evaluation suite for event-level scientific forecasting across eight scientific disciplines. Across six frontier AI models, we observe a striking asymmetry in forecasting performance together with systematic error patterns. Models often identify plausible mechanisms underlying future scientific advances, yet perform near chance on feasibility assessment, generate solution strategies that only weakly align with realized advances, and systematically predict scientific advances later than they become publicly observable. Providing additional pre-cutoff scientific knowledge improves performance but does not eliminate these forecasting limitations. These findings suggest that current AI systems possess substantial retrospective scientific competence but limited forward-looking predictive capability. Scientific forecasting should therefore be evaluated as a complementary dimension of AI scientific capability when deploying AI systems for research prioritization and scientific decision-making.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Diffusing Blame: Task-Dependent Credit Assignment in Biologically Plausible Dual-Stream Networks

Biological neural circuits obey Dale's principle: each neuron's synapses are uniformly excitatory or inhibitory. Artificial networks that respect this constraint must coordinate separate excitatory and inhibitory populations, fundamentally changing how credit is assigned during learning. Several biologically plausible learning rules avoid backpropagation's weight transport requirement, but it has been difficult to achieve strong performance under Dale's principle beyond MNIST. Error Diffusion (ED) was originally proposed in a dual-stream excitatory/inhibitory architecture, where learning is driven by routing global error signals to all layers without transporting transposed forward weights or relying on random feedback matrices. Whether such a rule can scale under Dale's principle across both supervised classification and reinforcement learning remains unknown. Here, we introduce modulo error routing to extend Error Diffusion beyond binary classification, and show that a dual-stream excitatory/inhibitory architecture trained with this method achieves 96.7% on MNIST and establishes a 61.7% baseline on CIFAR-10, demonstrating that representation learning is possible even when strictly enforcing Dale's principle. For the classification setting, we introduce three domain-specific innovations: layer-specific sigmoid widths, batch-centered class error signals, and asymmetric initialization, and ablation analysis reveals that their relative importance reverses between MNIST and CIFAR-10, exposing task-dependent credit-assignment bottlenecks invisible to single-benchmark evaluation. In reinforcement learning, we integrate ED with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and evaluate it on continuous-control tasks in Google Brax and on Craftax, an open-ended exploration task. We show that ED-PPO achieves competitive performance relative to Direct Feedback Alignment, a backpropagation-free baseline.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Weight Adaptation for Improving Parallel Performance of Adaptive Stochastic Natural Gradient

Probabilistic model-based evolutionary algorithms are promising for black-box optimization. Specifically, the adaptive stochastic natural gradient (ASNG) adaptively updates its learning rate, a typical hyperparameter in probabilistic model-based evolutionary algorithms, thereby realizing efficient and robust optimization. Although weight parameters are common hyperparameters, with the increasing demand for parallel evaluation of time-consuming tasks, it remains unclear how to set suitable weights for larger population sizes. In this paper, we propose Weight Adaptation ASNG (WA-ASNG), which incorporates a weight adaptation mechanism into ASNG. We calculated the estimated signal of the update direction from the accumulations of the natural gradient. Then, to maximize the signal, WA-ASNG adaptively updates its weight parameters by a gradient ascent over the optimization. While the learning rate adaptation plays a role in satisfying a sufficient condition for monotonic improvement of the expected objective value, the mechanism of weight adaptation is intended to maximize this improvement. The experimental results demonstrate that WA-ASNG outperforms PBIL and ASNG across various settings with population sizes ranging from 25 to 100 for binary optimization problems. Furthermore, WA-ASNG can perform efficiently in the presence of strong noise. Our code is available at https://github.com/shiralab/WA-ASNG .

cs.NE↗

arXiv2026

BBOWP-Bench: Evaluating LLMs on Black-Box Optimization Word Problems

Formulating an optimization problem strongly affects the quality of the final solution, yet good formulations usually require substantial expertise. Recent studies have therefore examined how to automatically derive optimization problems from natural-language descriptions, but existing benchmarks focus on settings where objectives and constraints can be written explicitly as mathematical expressions. Many practically important problems are naturally treated as black-box optimization (BBO) problems, in which only objective values are observable, and the functional form is unavailable. In BBO, the search space design, a part of the problem formulation, and the selection of the optimization algorithm are crucial for problem-solving. Automating these processes with large language models (LLMs) is a significant challenge. This paper introduces Black-Box Optimization Word Problems (BBOWP), a novel problem setting in which a system must infer both a search space and an optimization algorithm from a natural-language description of a black-box optimization task. To support research on this setting, we establish the BBOWP Benchmark Suite (BBOWP-Bench), a dataset and evaluation framework for BBOWP. Each instance combines a natural-language problem description, an executable evaluation environment, and a human-designed baseline formulation, allowing evaluation of both search-space design and algorithm selection. Using this benchmark, we provide the first evaluation of LLMs and show that current LLMs are capable of selecting suitable algorithms based on the given evaluation budget. However, they sometimes struggle with search space design, particularly in identifying important variables and balancing their ranges when the problem description is less informative or the search space is highly problem-specific. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/shiralab/bbowp-bench.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Towards End-to-End Automation of AI Research

The automation of science is a long-standing ambition in the field of AI. While the community has made significant progress in automating individual components of the scientific process, a system that autonomously navigates the entire research lifecycle -- from conception to publication -- has remained out of reach. Here, we present the strongest demonstration to date toward automating the entire process end-to-end. We present The AI Scientist, which creates research ideas, writes code, runs experiments, plots and analyzes data, writes the entire scientific manuscript and performs its own peer review. Its ideas, execution, and presentation are of sufficient quality to produce a manuscript generated by an AI system that passes the first round of peer review at a major machine learning conference workshop. The workshop has an acceptance rate of 70 percent. Our system leverages modern foundation models within a complex agentic system. We evaluate The AI Scientist in two settings: a focused mode using human-provided code templates as an initial scaffold to conduct research on a specific topic, and a template-free, open-ended mode that leverages agentic search for wider scientific exploration. Both settings produce diverse ideas and automatically test, report on, and evaluate them. This achievement demonstrates AI's growing capacity for scientific contribution and signifies a potential paradigm shift in how research is conducted. As with any impactful new technology, there could be significant risks, including taxing overwhelmed review systems and adding noise to scientific literature. However, if developed responsibly, such autonomous systems could greatly accelerate scientific discovery.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Human-Robot collaboration in surgery: Advances and challenges towards autonomous surgical assistants

Human-robot collaboration in surgery represents a significant area of research, driven by the increasing capability of autonomous robotic systems to assist surgeons in complex procedures. This systematic review examines the advancements and persistent challenges in the development of autonomous surgical robotic assistants (ASARs), focusing specifically on scenarios where robots provide meaningful and active support to human surgeons. Adhering to the PRISMA guidelines, a comprehensive literature search was conducted across the IEEE Xplore, Scopus, and Web of Science databases, resulting in the selection of 32 studies for detailed analysis. Two primary collaborative setups were identified: teleoperation-based assistance and direct hands-on interaction. The findings reveal a growing research emphasis on ASARs, with predominant applications currently in endoscope guidance, alongside emerging progress in autonomous tool manipulation. Several key challenges hinder wider adoption, including the alignment of robotic actions with human surgeon preferences, the necessity for procedural awareness within autonomous systems, the establishment of seamless human-robot information exchange, and the complexities of skill acquisition in shared workspaces. This review synthesizes current trends, identifies critical limitations, and outlines future research directions essential to improve the reliability, safety, and effectiveness of human-robot collaboration in surgical environments.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

The AI Scientist-v2: Workshop-Level Automated Scientific Discovery via Agentic Tree Search

AI is increasingly playing a pivotal role in transforming how scientific discoveries are made. We introduce The AI Scientist-v2, an end-to-end agentic system capable of producing the first entirely AI generated peer-review-accepted workshop paper. This system iteratively formulates scientific hypotheses, designs and executes experiments, analyzes and visualizes data, and autonomously authors scientific manuscripts. Compared to its predecessor (v1, Lu et al., 2024 arXiv:2408.06292), The AI Scientist-v2 eliminates the reliance on human-authored code templates, generalizes effectively across diverse machine learning domains, and leverages a novel progressive agentic tree-search methodology managed by a dedicated experiment manager agent. Additionally, we enhance the AI reviewer component by integrating a Vision-Language Model (VLM) feedback loop for iterative refinement of content and aesthetics of the figures. We evaluated The AI Scientist-v2 by submitting three fully autonomous manuscripts to a peer-reviewed ICLR workshop. Notably, one manuscript achieved high enough scores to exceed the average human acceptance threshold, marking the first instance of a fully AI-generated paper successfully navigating a peer review. This accomplishment highlights the growing capability of AI in conducting all aspects of scientific research. We anticipate that further advancements in autonomous scientific discovery technologies will profoundly impact human knowledge generation, enabling unprecedented scalability in research productivity and significantly accelerating scientific breakthroughs, greatly benefiting society at large. We have open-sourced the code at https://github.com/SakanaAI/AI-Scientist-v2 to foster the future development of this transformative technology. We also discuss the role of AI in science, including AI safety.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Embedded Image-to-Image Translation for Efficient Sim-to-Real Transfer in Learning-based Robot-Assisted Soft Manipulation

Recent advances in robotic learning in simulation have shown impressive results in accelerating learning complex manipulation skills. However, the sim-to-real gap, caused by discrepancies between simulation and reality, poses significant challenges for the effective deployment of autonomous surgical systems. We propose a novel approach utilizing image translation models to mitigate domain mismatches and facilitate efficient robot skill learning in a simulated environment. Our method involves the use of contrastive unpaired Image-to-image translation, allowing for the acquisition of embedded representations from these transformed images. Subsequently, these embeddings are used to improve the efficiency of training surgical manipulation models. We conducted experiments to evaluate the performance of our approach, demonstrating that it significantly enhances task success rates and reduces the steps required for task completion compared to traditional methods. The results indicate that our proposed system effectively bridges the sim-to-real gap, providing a robust framework for advancing the autonomy of surgical robots in minimally invasive procedures.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Task segmentation based on transition state clustering for surgical robot assistance

Understanding surgical tasks represents an important challenge for autonomy in surgical robotic systems. To achieve this, we propose an online task segmentation framework that uses hierarchical transition state clustering to activate predefined robot assistance. Our approach involves performing a first clustering on visual features and a subsequent clustering on robot kinematic features for each visual cluster. This enables to capture relevant task transition information on each modality independently. The approach is implemented for a pick-and-place task commonly found in surgical training. The validation of the transition segmentation showed high accuracy and fast computation time. We have integrated the transition recognition module with predefined robot-assisted tool positioning. The complete framework has shown benefits in reducing task completion time and cognitive workload.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

When are Lemons Purple? The Concept Association Bias of Vision-Language Models

Large-scale vision-language models such as CLIP have shown impressive performance on zero-shot image classification and image-to-text retrieval. However, such performance does not realize in tasks that require a finer-grained correspondence between vision and language, such as Visual Question Answering (VQA). As a potential cause of the difficulty of applying these models to VQA and similar tasks, we report an interesting phenomenon of vision-language models, which we call the Concept Association Bias (CAB). We find that models with CAB tend to treat input as a bag of concepts and attempt to fill in the other missing concept crossmodally, leading to an unexpected zero-shot prediction. We demonstrate CAB by showing that CLIP's zero-shot classification performance greatly suffers when there is a strong concept association between an object (e.g. eggplant) and an attribute (e.g. color purple). We also show that the strength of CAB predicts the performance on VQA. We observe that CAB is prevalent in vision-language models trained with contrastive losses, even when autoregressive losses are jointly employed. However, a model that solely relies on autoregressive loss seems to exhibit minimal or no signs of CAB.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Evaluating Spatial Understanding of Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities across a variety of tasks. Despite the models only seeing text in training, several recent studies suggest that LLM representations implicitly capture aspects of the underlying grounded concepts. Here, we explore LLM representations of a particularly salient kind of grounded knowledge -- spatial relationships. We design natural-language navigation tasks and evaluate the ability of LLMs, in particular GPT-3.5-turbo, GPT-4, and Llama2 series models, to represent and reason about spatial structures. These tasks reveal substantial variability in LLM performance across different spatial structures, including square, hexagonal, and triangular grids, rings, and trees. In extensive error analysis, we find that LLMs' mistakes reflect both spatial and non-spatial factors. These findings suggest that LLMs appear to capture certain aspects of spatial structure implicitly, but room for improvement remains.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

L3GO: Language Agents with Chain-of-3D-Thoughts for Generating Unconventional Objects

Diffusion-based image generation models such as DALL-E 3 and Stable Diffusion-XL demonstrate remarkable capabilities in generating images with realistic and unique compositions. Yet, these models are not robust in precisely reasoning about physical and spatial configurations of objects, especially when instructed with unconventional, thereby out-of-distribution descriptions, such as "a chair with five legs". In this paper, we propose a language agent with chain-of-3D-thoughts (L3GO), an inference-time approach that can reason about part-based 3D mesh generation of unconventional objects that current data-driven diffusion models struggle with. More concretely, we use large language models as agents to compose a desired object via trial-and-error within the 3D simulation environment. To facilitate our investigation, we develop a new benchmark, Unconventionally Feasible Objects (UFO), as well as SimpleBlenv, a wrapper environment built on top of Blender where language agents can build and compose atomic building blocks via API calls. Human and automatic GPT-4V evaluations show that our approach surpasses the standard GPT-4 and other language agents (e.g., ReAct and Reflexion) for 3D mesh generation on ShapeNet. Moreover, when tested on our UFO benchmark, our approach outperforms other state-of-the-art text-to-2D image and text-to-3D models based on human evaluation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Evaluating GPT-4 and ChatGPT on Japanese Medical Licensing Examinations

As large language models (LLMs) gain popularity among speakers of diverse languages, we believe that it is crucial to benchmark them to better understand model behaviors, failures, and limitations in languages beyond English. In this work, we evaluate LLM APIs (ChatGPT, GPT-3, and GPT-4) on the Japanese national medical licensing examinations from the past five years, including the current year. Our team comprises native Japanese-speaking NLP researchers and a practicing cardiologist based in Japan. Our experiments show that GPT-4 outperforms ChatGPT and GPT-3 and passes all six years of the exams, highlighting LLMs' potential in a language that is typologically distant from English. However, our evaluation also exposes critical limitations of the current LLM APIs. First, LLMs sometimes select prohibited choices that should be strictly avoided in medical practice in Japan, such as suggesting euthanasia. Further, our analysis shows that the API costs are generally higher and the maximum context size is smaller for Japanese because of the way non-Latin scripts are currently tokenized in the pipeline. We release our benchmark as Igaku QA as well as all model outputs and exam metadata. We hope that our results and benchmark will spur progress on more diverse applications of LLMs. Our benchmark is available at https://github.com/jungokasai/IgakuQA.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2022

Support Recovery with Stochastic Gates: Theory and Application for Linear Models

Consider the problem of simultaneous estimation and support recovery of the coefficient vector in a linear data model with additive Gaussian noise. We study the problem of estimating the model coefficients based on a recently proposed non-convex regularizer, namely the stochastic gates (STG) [Yamada et al. 2020]. We suggest a new projection-based algorithm for solving the STG regularized minimization problem, and prove convergence and support recovery guarantees of the STG-estimator for a range of random and non-random design matrix setups. Our new algorithm has been shown to outperform the existing STG algorithm and other classical estimators for support recovery in various real and synthetic data analyses.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Can Wikipedia Help Offline Reinforcement Learning?

Fine-tuning reinforcement learning (RL) models has been challenging because of a lack of large scale off-the-shelf datasets as well as high variance in transferability among different environments. Recent work has looked at tackling offline RL from the perspective of sequence modeling with improved results as result of the introduction of the Transformer architecture. However, when the model is trained from scratch, it suffers from slow convergence speeds. In this paper, we look to take advantage of this formulation of reinforcement learning as sequence modeling and investigate the transferability of pre-trained sequence models on other domains (vision, language) when finetuned on offline RL tasks (control, games). To this end, we also propose techniques to improve transfer between these domains. Results show consistent performance gains in terms of both convergence speed and reward on a variety of environments, accelerating training by 3-6x and achieving state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks using Wikipedia-pretrained and GPT2 language models. We hope that this work not only brings light to the potentials of leveraging generic sequence modeling techniques and pre-trained models for RL, but also inspires future work on sharing knowledge between generative modeling tasks of completely different domains.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Does Robustness on ImageNet Transfer to Downstream Tasks?

As clean ImageNet accuracy nears its ceiling, the research community is increasingly more concerned about robust accuracy under distributional shifts. While a variety of methods have been proposed to robustify neural networks, these techniques often target models trained on ImageNet classification. At the same time, it is a common practice to use ImageNet pretrained backbones for downstream tasks such as object detection, semantic segmentation, and image classification from different domains. This raises a question: Can these robust image classifiers transfer robustness to downstream tasks? For object detection and semantic segmentation, we find that a vanilla Swin Transformer, a variant of Vision Transformer tailored for dense prediction tasks, transfers robustness better than Convolutional Neural Networks that are trained to be robust to the corrupted version of ImageNet. For CIFAR10 classification, we find that models that are robustified for ImageNet do not retain robustness when fully fine-tuned. These findings suggest that current robustification techniques tend to emphasize ImageNet evaluations. Moreover, network architecture is a strong source of robustness when we consider transfer learning.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Feature Selection using Stochastic Gates

Feature selection problems have been extensively studied for linear estimation, for instance, Lasso, but less emphasis has been placed on feature selection for non-linear functions. In this study, we propose a method for feature selection in high-dimensional non-linear function estimation problems. The new procedure is based on minimizing the $\ell_0$ norm of the vector of indicator variables that represent if a feature is selected or not. Our approach relies on the continuous relaxation of Bernoulli distributions, which allows our model to learn the parameters of the approximate Bernoulli distributions via gradient descent. This general framework simultaneously minimizes a loss function while selecting relevant features. Furthermore, we provide an information-theoretic justification of incorporating Bernoulli distribution into our approach and demonstrate the potential of the approach on synthetic and real-life applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Defending against Adversarial Images using Basis Functions Transformations

We study the effectiveness of various approaches that defend against adversarial attacks on deep networks via manipulations based on basis function representations of images. Specifically, we experiment with low-pass filtering, PCA, JPEG compression, low resolution wavelet approximation, and soft-thresholding. We evaluate these defense techniques using three types of popular attacks in black, gray and white-box settings. Our results show JPEG compression tends to outperform the other tested defenses in most of the settings considered, in addition to soft-thresholding, which performs well in specific cases, and yields a more mild decrease in accuracy on benign examples. In addition, we also mathematically derive a novel white-box attack in which the adversarial perturbation is composed only of terms corresponding a to pre-determined subset of the basis functions, of which a "low frequency attack" is a special case.

stat.ML↗