arXiv subjects

Yuyang Huo

Publications and source records attributed to Yuyang Huo.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Learning U-Statistics with Active Inference

$U$-statistics play a central role in statistical inference. In many modern applications, however, acquiring the labels required for $U$-statistics is costly. Motivated by recent advances in active inference, we develop an active inference framework for $U$-statistics that selectively queries informative labels to improve estimation efficiency under a fixed labeling budget, while preserving valid statistical inference. Our approach is built on the augmented inverse probability weighting $U$-statistic, which is designed to incorporate the sampling rule and machine learning predictions. We characterize the optimal sampling rule that minimizes its variance and design practical sampling strategies. We further extend the framework to $U$-statistic-based empirical risk minimization. Experiments on real datasets demonstrate substantial gains in estimation efficiency over baseline methods, while maintaining target coverage.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Feedback-Enhanced Online Multiple Testing with Applications to Conformal Selection

This work studies online multiple testing with feedback, where decisions are made sequentially, and the true state of the hypothesis is revealed after decisions are made, either instantly or with a delay, and under either full or bandit feedback. We propose Generalized alpha-investing with feedback (GAIF) along with its adaptive variants, a feedback-enhanced framework that dynamically adjusts thresholds using revealed outcomes, ensuring finite-sample false discovery rate (FDR)/marginal FDR (mFDR) control. We further extend GAIF to online conformal testing by constructing valid conformal $p$-values and developing feedback-enhanced testing rules with finite-sample mFDR control. We also propose a feedback-driven score selection criterion to adaptively choose the candidate score that is most effective for the testing procedure, together with a theoretical analysis of its optimality.} Numerical simulations and real-data applications demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Unified Conformalized Multiple Testing with Full Data Efficiency

Conformalized multiple testing offers a model-free way to control predictive uncertainty in decision-making. Existing methods typically use only part of the available data to build score functions tailored to specific settings. We propose a unified framework that puts data utilisation at the centre: it uses all available data-null, alternative, and unlabelled-to construct scores and calibrate p-values through a full permutation strategy. This unified use of all available data significantly improves power by enhancing non-conformity score quality and maximising calibration set size while rigorously controlling the false discovery rate. Crucially, our framework provides a systematic design principle for conformal testing and enables automatic selection of the best conformal procedure among candidates without extra data splitting. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that our enhanced methods deliver superior efficiency and adaptability across diverse scenarios.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

CAP: A General Algorithm for Online Selective Conformal Prediction with FCR Control

We study the problem of post-selection predictive inference in an online fashion. To avoid devoting resources to unimportant units, a preliminary selection of the current individual before reporting its prediction interval is common and meaningful in online predictive tasks. Since the online selection causes a temporal multiplicity in the selected prediction intervals, it is important to control the real-time false coverage-statement rate (FCR) which measures the overall miscoverage level. We develop a general framework named CAP (Calibration after Adaptive Pick) that performs an adaptive pick rule on historical data to construct a calibration set if the current individual is selected and then outputs a conformal prediction interval for the unobserved label. We provide tractable procedures for constructing the calibration set for popular online selection rules. We proved that CAP can achieve an exact selection-conditional coverage guarantee in the finite-sample and distribution-free regimes. To account for the distribution shift in online data, we also embed CAP into some recent dynamic conformal prediction algorithms and show that the proposed method can deliver long-run FCR control. Numerical results on both synthetic and real data corroborate that CAP can effectively control FCR around the target level and yield more narrowed prediction intervals over existing baselines across various settings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Selective conformal inference with false coverage-statement rate control

Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals (PI). We consider here the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is PIs are reported only for individuals selected from an unlabeled test data. To account for multiplicity, we develop a general split conformal framework to construct selective PIs with the false coverage-statement rate (FCR) control. We first investigate the Benjamini and Yekutieli (2005)'s FCR-adjusted method in the present setting, and show that it is able to achieve FCR control but yields uniformly inflated PIs. We then propose a novel solution to the problem, named as Selective COnditional conformal Predictions (SCOP), which entails performing selection procedures on both calibration set and test set and construct marginal conformal PIs on the selected sets by the aid of conditional empirical distribution obtained by the calibration set. Under a unified framework and exchangeable assumptions, we show that the SCOP can exactly control the FCR. More importantly, we provide non-asymptotic miscoverage bounds for a general class of selection procedures beyond exchangeablity and discuss the conditions under which the SCOP is able to control the FCR. As special cases, the SCOP with quantile-based selection or conformal p-values-based multiple testing procedures enjoys valid coverage guarantee under mild conditions. Numerical results confirm the effectiveness and robustness of SCOP in FCR control and show that it achieves more narrowed PIs over existing methods in many settings.

stat.ME↗