arXiv subjects

Yuyao Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Yuyao Wang.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

MethaneFuse: Learning from Multi-Sensor Satellite Observations for Methane Plume Detection

Methane plume detection from satellite imagery is constrained by incomplete observations: public satellites provide complementary spatial, spectral, and atmospheric evidence, but real plume cases rarely contain fully paired multi-sensor measurements because of revisit schedules, cloud coverage, acquisition quality, and the transient nature of emissions. Most learning-based detectors rely on single-sensor inputs, especially Sentinel-2 (S2), leaving many reported plume cases unusable. We construct MethaneUnion, a temporal multi-sensor dataset built from Carbon Mapper plume reports and matched S2, Landsat 8/9 (L8/9), EMIT, and Sentinel-5P (S5P) observations. Built on MethaneUnion, MethaneFuse learns from heterogeneous satellite observations under partial sensor availability without requiring complete four-sensor measurements. MethaneUnion expands usable coverage from 3,211 valid S2-matched plume cases to 8,981 reported plume cases with multi-sensor observations. At the representative 480 m setting, MethaneFuse achieves 84.87 F1 and 93.62 AUROC, improving over the strongest baseline by 5.65 F1 and 8.30 AUROC points while reducing false positives by 8.19 points. Sensor-availability experiments show that MethaneFuse improves detection when S2 is available and transfers plume knowledge to L8/9, EMIT, and S5P when S2 is unavailable. These results demonstrate the value of learning from incomplete heterogeneous sensor observations for practical methane plume detection.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

PAUSE: A User-Centric Benchmark for Personal AI Assistants in Unified Service Environments

Personal AI assistants are increasingly deployed as task-oriented, tool-augmented agents that operate within unified service environments to support everyday user activities. In realistic settings, such assistants must reason over persistent user state, respect user-specific configurations and permissions, and sustain long-horizon, constraint-aware interactions across multiple services. Existing benchmarks, however, often fragment service contexts or abstract away user state, limiting their ability to evaluate user-centric personal assistant behavior in realistic service settings. We introduce PAUSE, a user-centric benchmark for evaluating personal AI assistants in stateful, service-integrated environments. PAUSE captures core challenges of real-world assistant deployment by requiring agents to coordinate actions across heterogeneous user-owned resources while maintaining consistency with environment state, authorization constraints over multi-turn interactions. The benchmark incorporates explicit user-agent interaction via realistic user simulation, enabling evaluation beyond static tool execution. To support principled and reproducible evaluation, PAUSE adopts a multi-regime evaluation framework aligned with task characteristics. Open-ended service management tasks are assessed using semantic and trajectory-level behavioral metrics, while constraint-intensive tasks admit deterministic, state-based verification. Benchmark results show that even state-of-the-art proprietary models fail to reach 70% task completion on scenarios requiring stateful reasoning and configuration awareness, revealing consistent and interpretable failure patterns. Finally, we present a user-centric synthesis pipeline that enables scalable generation of coherent service environments, user configurations, and reliably annotated tasks, supporting benchmark extensibility and future research.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

CP-Agent: A Calibrated Risk-Controlled Agent for Feedback-Driven Competitive Programming

Large language models still struggle with contest-level programming, while many agentic remedies rely on massive inference-time sampling or expensive multi-stage post-training. We study when execution feedback reliably helps an LLM CP solver and which mechanisms govern the gains. We model feedback-driven solving as a calibrated stopped process and identify three quantities: false-admission risk, program-level evidence against bad programs, and the active-state success hazard. Under held-out trace calibration and selection from a pre-declared finite controller manifest, the resulting structural certificate lower-bounds the clean success probability before false admission. We instantiate mechanisms targeting these quantities as Dual-Granularity Verification, Test Augmentation, and Experience-Driven Self-Evolving, yielding CP-Agent. Without updating any parameters, CP-Agent raises Pass@1 from 25.8\% to 48.5\% on LiveCodeBench Pro and improves Refine@5 by 11.0\% on ICPC-Eval. Across three LLM backbones, CP-Agent lies on the cost--accuracy efficiency frontier, and ablations show that each component primarily affects its corresponding certificate quantity.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

EvoMemBench: Benchmarking Agent Memory from a Self-Evolving Perspective

Recent benchmarks for Large Language Model (LLM) agents mainly evaluate reasoning, planning, and execution. However, memory is also essential for agents, as it enables them to store, update, and retrieve information over time. This ability remains under-evaluated, largely because existing benchmarks do not provide a systematic way to assess memory mechanisms. In this paper, we study agent memory from a self-evolving perspective and introduce EvoMemBench, a unified benchmark organized along two axes: memory scope (in-episode vs. cross-episode) and memory content (knowledge-oriented vs. execution-oriented). We compare 15 representative memory methods with strong long-context baselines under a standardized protocol. Results show that current memory systems are still far from a general solution: long-context baselines remain highly competitive, memory helps most when the current context is insufficient or tasks are difficult, and no single memory form works consistently across all settings. Retrieval-based methods remain strong for knowledge-intensive settings, whereas procedural and long-term memory methods are more effective for execution-oriented tasks when their stored experience matches the task structure. We hope EvoMemBench facilitates future research on more effective memory systems for LLM-based agents. Our code is available at https://github.com/DSAIL-Memory/EvoMemBench.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

History-Aware Conformal Prediction Sets for Censored Time-to-Event Outcomes

Existing conformal prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes leverage only baseline covariates, producing prediction intervals that are insufficiently informative to facilitate decision making. We propose History-Aware Prediction Sets (HAPS), a conformal framework that constructs prediction sets for individual event times using covariate histories observed up to a decision time, targeting coverage among individuals who have survived to this time. HAPS handles right censoring adjusted for time-varying confounders via inverse probability of censoring weighting. When the censoring weights are consistently estimated, it achieves PAAC (probably asymptotically approximately correct) coverage among survivors. We further propose two doubly robust extensions of HAPS to weaken reliance on consistent estimation of the censoring distribution. In simulations, HAPS and its extensions reduce median prediction interval length by up to 75\% relative to baseline comparators while maintaining close to nominal coverage. On two public benchmark data sets, HAPS reduces the median interval length by up to 60\% for predictions at year 5, compared to the baseline comparators.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

SCOT: Multi-Source Cross-City Transfer with Optimal-Transport Soft-Correspondence Objective

Cross-city transfer improves prediction in label-scarce cities by leveraging labeled data from other cities, but it becomes challenging when cities adopt incompatible partitions and no ground-truth region correspondences exist. Existing approaches either rely on heuristic region matching, which is often sensitive to anchor choices, or perform distribution-level alignment that leaves correspondences implicit and can be unstable under strong heterogeneity. We propose SCOT, a cross-city representation learning framework that learns explicit soft correspondences between unequal region sets via Sinkhorn-based entropic optimal transport. SCOT further sharpens transferable structure with an OT-weighted contrastive objective and stabilizes optimization through a cycle-style reconstruction regularizer. For multi-source transfer, SCOT aligns each source and the target to a shared prototype hub using balanced entropic transport guided by a target-induced prototype prior. Across real-world cities and tasks, SCOT consistently improves transfer accuracy and robustness, while the learned transport couplings and hub assignments provide interpretable diagnostics of alignment quality.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

From Text to Forecasts: Bridging Modality Gap with Temporal Evolution Semantic Space

Incorporating textual information into time-series forecasting holds promise for addressing event-driven non-stationarity; however, a fundamental modality gap hinders effective fusion: textual descriptions express temporal impacts implicitly and qualitatively, whereas forecasting models rely on explicit and quantitative signals. Through controlled semi-synthetic experiments, we show that existing methods over-attend to redundant tokens and struggle to reliably translate textual semantics into usable numerical cues. To bridge this gap, we propose TESS, which introduces a Temporal Evolution Semantic Space as an intermediate bottleneck between modalities. This space consists of interpretable, numerically grounded temporal primitives (mean shift, volatility, shape, and lag) extracted from text by an LLM via structured prompting and filtered through confidence-aware gating. Experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate up to a 29 percent reduction in forecasting error compared to state-of-the-art unimodal and multimodal baselines. The code will be released after acceptance.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Group-Sparse Smoothing for Longitudinal Models with Time-Varying Coefficients

Longitudinal associations may vary over time, yet allowing every regression effect to be dynamic can inflate estimation variance and obscure interpretable structure. We develop time-varying-effect selection (TV-Select), a group-sparse smoothing framework that classifies covariate effects as zero, constant, or time varying. Each coefficient is decomposed into a constant mean and a centered temporal deviation represented by a full-rank, L2-normalized effective spline basis. A group penalty identifies varying components, while a roughness penalty controls their curvature. The resulting convex criterion is solved by cyclic block proximal-gradient updates and followed by smooth refitting. Under a full-column-rank unpenalized design and an effective model dimension that is small relative to the total number of observations, we establish prediction and parameter rates, blockwise function-estimation bounds, and exact recovery of the varying set under irrepresentability and beta-min conditions. A stable classification refit further separates zero from constant effects. For fixed-dimensional contrasts, we construct an oracle-equivalent one-step estimator with cluster-robust asymptotic normality and consistent sandwich variance estimation. Simulations demonstrate that TV-Select combines low false-positive rates with accurate function estimation and competitive prediction across a range of longitudinal settings. An application to Sleep-EDF data produces smooth and parsimonious temporal effect estimates with essentially unchanged held-out predictive performance.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

What Papers Don't Tell You: Recovering Tacit Knowledge for Automated Paper Reproduction

Automated paper reproduction -- generating executable code from academic papers -- is bottlenecked not by information retrieval but by the tacit knowledge that papers inevitably leave implicit. We formalize this challenge as the progressive recovery of three types of tacit knowledge -- relational, somatic, and collective -- and propose \method, a graph-based agent framework with a dedicated mechanism for each: node-level relation-aware aggregation recovers relational knowledge by analyzing implementation-unit-level reuse and adaptation relationships between the target paper and its citation neighbors; execution-feedback refinement recovers somatic knowledge through iterative debugging driven by runtime signals; and graph-level knowledge induction distills collective knowledge from clusters of papers sharing similar implementations. On an extended ReproduceBench spanning 3 domains, 10 tasks, and 40 recent papers, \method{} achieves an average performance gap of 10.04\% against official implementations, improving over the strongest baseline by 24.68\%. The code will be publicly released upon acceptance; the repository link will be provided in the final version.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Penalized Doubly Robust Regression for Longitudinal Data

Longitudinal data often involve heterogeneity, sparse signals, and contamination from response outliers or high-leverage observations especially in biomedical science. Existing methods usually address only part of this problem, either emphasizing penalized mixed effects modeling without robustness or robust mixed effects estimation without high-dimensional variable selection. We propose a doubly adaptive robust regression (DAR-R) framework for longitudinal linear mixed effects models. It combines a robust pilot fit, doubly adaptive observation weights for residual outliers and leverage points, and folded concave penalization for fixed effect selection, together with weighted updates of random effects and variance components. We develop an iterative reweighting algorithm and establish estimation and prediction error bounds, support recovery consistency, and oracle-type asymptotic normality. Simulations show that DAR-R improves estimation accuracy, false-positive control, and covariance estimation under both vertical outliers and bad leverage contamination. In the TADPOLE/ADNI Alzheimer's disease application, DAR-R achieves accurate and stable prediction of ADAS13 while selecting clinically meaningful predictors with strong resampling stability.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Block Empirical Likelihood Inference for Longitudinal Generalized Partially Linear Single-Index Models

Generalized partially linear single-index models (GPLSIMs) provide a flexible and interpretable semiparametric framework for longitudinal outcomes by combining a low-dimensional parametric component with a nonparametric index component. For repeated measurements, valid inference is challenging because within-subject correlation induces nuisance parameters and variance estimation can be unstable in semiparametric settings. We propose a profile estimating-equation approach based on spline approximation of the unknown link function and construct a subject-level block empirical likelihood (BEL) for joint inference on the parametric coefficients and the single-index direction. The resulting BEL ratio statistic enjoys a Wilks-type chi-square limit, yielding likelihood-free confidence regions without explicit sandwich variance estimation. We also discuss practical implementation, including constrained optimization for the index parameter, working-correlation choices, and bootstrap-based confidence bands for the nonparametric component. Simulation studies and an application to the epilepsy longitudinal study illustrate the finite-sample performance.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

AlgBench: To What Extent Do Large Reasoning Models Understand Algorithms?

Reasoning ability has become a central focus in the advancement of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs). Although notable progress has been achieved on several reasoning benchmarks such as MATH500 and LiveCodeBench, existing benchmarks for algorithmic reasoning remain limited, failing to answer a critical question: Do LRMs truly master algorithmic reasoning? To answer this question, we propose AlgBench, an expert-curated benchmark that evaluates LRMs under an algorithm-centric paradigm. AlgBench consists of over 3,000 original problems spanning 27 algorithms, constructed by ACM algorithmic experts and organized under a comprehensive taxonomy, including Euclidean-structured, non-Euclidean-structured, non-optimized, local-optimized, global-optimized, and heuristic-optimized categories. Empirical evaluations on leading LRMs (e.g., Gemini-3-Pro, DeepSeek-v3.2-Speciale and GPT-o3) reveal substantial performance heterogeneity: while models perform well on non-optimized tasks (up to 92%), accuracy drops sharply to around 49% on globally optimized algorithms such as dynamic programming. Further analysis uncovers \textbf{strategic over-shifts}, wherein models prematurely abandon correct algorithmic designs due to necessary low-entropy tokens. These findings expose fundamental limitations of problem-centric reinforcement learning and highlight the necessity of an algorithm-centric training paradigm for robust algorithmic reasoning.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Proximal Survival Analysis for Dependent Left Truncation

In prevalent cohort studies with delayed entry, time-to-event outcomes are often subject to left truncation where only subjects that have not experienced the event at study entry are included, leading to selection bias. Existing methods for handling left truncation mostly rely on the (quasi-)independence assumption or the weaker conditional (quasi-)independence assumption which assumes that conditional on observed covariates, the left truncation time and the event time are independent on the observed region. In practice, however, our analysis of the Honolulu Asia Aging Study (HAAS) suggests that the conditional quasi-independence assumption may fail because measured covariates often serve only as imperfect proxies for the underlying mechanisms, such as latent health status, that induce dependence between truncation and event times. To address this gap, we propose a proximal weighting identification framework that admits the dependence-inducing factors may not be fully observed. We then construct an estimator based on the framework and study its asymptotic properties. We examine the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator by comprehensive simulations, and apply it to analyzing the cognitive impairment-free survival probabilities using data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Transfer Learning on Edge Connecting Probability Estimation under Graphon Model

Graphon models provide a flexible nonparametric framework for estimating latent connectivity probabilities in networks, enabling a range of downstream applications such as link prediction and data augmentation. However, accurate graphon estimation typically requires a large graph, whereas in practice, one often only observes a small-sized network. One approach to addressing this issue is to adopt a transfer learning framework, which aims to improve estimation in a small target graph by leveraging structural information from a larger, related source graph. In this paper, we propose a novel method, namely GTRANS, a transfer learning framework that integrates neighborhood smoothing and Gromov-Wasserstein optimal transport to align and transfer structural patterns between graphs. To prevent negative transfer, GTRANS includes an adaptive debiasing mechanism that identifies and corrects for target-specific deviations via residual smoothing. We provide theoretical guarantees on the stability of the estimated alignment matrix and demonstrate the effectiveness of GTRANS in improving the accuracy of target graph estimation through extensive synthetic and real data experiments. These improvements translate directly to enhanced performance in downstream applications, such as the graph classification task and the link prediction task.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

NPG-Muse: Scaling Long Chain-of-Thought Reasoning with NP-Hard Graph Problems

Reasoning Large Language Models (RLLMs) have recently achieved remarkable progress on complex reasoning tasks, largely enabled by their long chain-of-thought (Long CoT) capabilities. However, developing these Long CoT behaviors relies heavily on post-training with high-quality datasets, which are typically costly and human-curated (e.g., mathematics and code), leaving scalable alternatives unexplored. In this work, we introduce NP-hard (NPH) graph problems as a novel synthetic training corpus, as they inherently require deep reasoning, extensive exploration, and reflective strategies, which are the core characteristics of Long CoT reasoning. Building on this insight, we develop a two-stage post-training framework: (i) Long-CoT Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on rejection-sampled NPH graph instances, which substantially enhances reasoning depth, and (ii) Reinforcement Learning (RL) with a fine-grained reward design, which sharpens reasoning efficiency. The resulting NPG-Muse-series models exhibit substantially enhanced Long CoT reasoning capabilities, achieving consistent gains across mathematics, coding, logical, and graph reasoning benchmarks. NPG-Muse-7B even surpasses QwQ-32B on NPH graph problems in both accuracy and reasoning efficiency. These results position NPH graph problems as an effective and scalable resource for advancing Long CoT reasoning in LLM post-training. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/littlewyy/NPG-Muse.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Phase Transition in Nonparametric Minimax Rates for Covariate Shifts on Approximate Manifolds

We study nonparametric regression under covariate shift with structured data, where a small amount of labeled target data is supplemented by a large labeled source dataset. In many real-world settings, the covariates in the target domain lie near a low-dimensional manifold within the support of the source, e.g., personalized handwritten digits (target) within a large, high-dimensional image repository (source). Since density ratios may not exist in these settings, standard transfer learning techniques often fail to leverage such structure. This necessitates the development of methods that exploit both the size of the source dataset and the structured nature of the target. Motivated by this, we establish new minimax rates under covariate shift for estimating a regression function in a general H\"older class, assuming the target distribution lies near -- but not exactly on -- a smooth submanifold of the source. General smoothness helps reduce the curse of dimensionality when the target function is highly regular, while approximate manifolds capture realistic, noisy data. We identify a phase transition in the minimax rate of estimation governed by the distance to the manifold, source and target sample sizes, function smoothness, and intrinsic versus ambient dimensions. We propose a local polynomial regression estimator that achieves optimal rates on either side of the phase transition boundary. Additionally, we construct a fully adaptive procedure that adjusts to unknown smoothness and intrinsic dimension, and attains nearly optimal rates. Our results unify and extend key threads in covariate shift, manifold learning, and adaptive nonparametric inference.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

History-Aware Transformation of ReID Features for Multiple Object Tracking

In Multiple Object Tracking (MOT), Re-identification (ReID) features are widely employed as a powerful cue for object association. However, they are often wielded as a one-size-fits-all hammer, applied uniformly across all videos through simple similarity metrics. We argue that this overlooks a fundamental truth: MOT is not a general retrieval problem, but a context-specific task of discriminating targets within a single video. To this end, we advocate for the adjustment of visual features based on the context specific to each video sequence for better adaptation. In this paper, we propose a history-aware feature transformation method that dynamically crafts a more discriminative subspace tailored to each video's unique sample distribution. Specifically, we treat the historical features of established trajectories as context and employ a tailored Fisher Linear Discriminant (FLD) to project the raw ReID features into a sequence-specific representation space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our training-free method dramatically enhances the discriminative power of features from diverse ReID backbones, resulting in marked and consistent gains in tracking accuracy. Our findings provide compelling evidence that MOT inherently favors context-specific representation over the direct application of generic ReID features. We hope our work inspires the community to move beyond the naive application of ReID features and towards a deeper exploration of their purposeful customization for MOT. Our code will be released. The code is released at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/HATReID-MOT.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

A Liberating Framework from Truncation and Censoring, with Application to Learning Treatment Effects

Time-to-event outcomes are often subject to left truncation and right censoring. While many survival analysis methods have been developed to handle truncation and censoring, majority of the past works require strong independence assumptions. We relax these stringent assumptions through leveraging covariate information together with orthogonal learning, and develop a liberating framework from left truncation and right censoring so that desirable properties like double robustness can be immediately transferred from settings without truncation or censoring. To illustrate its generality and ease to use, the framework is applied to estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) and the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). For the ATE, we establish both model and rate double robustness under confounding, truncation and censoring; for the CATE, we show that the orthogonal and the doubly robust learners under these three sources of bias can achieve oracle rate of convergence. We study the estimators both theoretically and through extensive simulation, and apply them to analyzing the effect of mid-life heavy drinking on late life cognitive impairment free survival, using data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study.

stat.ME↗