Z. Baki | Searcharxiv

arXiv2024

A Cox rate-and-state model for monitoring seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field

To monitor the seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field, we modify the rate-and-state model that relates changes in pore pressure to induced seismic hazard by allowing for noise in pore pressure measurements and by explicitly taking into account gas production volumes. We analyse the first and second-moment structure of the resulting Cox process, propose an unbiased estimating equation approach for the unknown model parameters and derive the posterior distribution of the driving random measure. We use a parallel Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm for sampling from the posterior and to monitor the hazard.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2022

Exploring seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field using adaptive kernel smoothing and inhomogeneous summary statistics

The discovery of gas in Groningen in 1959 has been a massive boon to the Dutch economy. From the 1990s onwards though, gas production has led to induced seismicity. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive exploratory analysis of the spatio-temporal earthquake catalogue. We develop a non-parametric adaptive kernel smoothing technique to estimate the spatio-temporal hazard map and to interpolate monthly well-based gas production statistics. Second- and higher-order inhomogeneous summary statistics are used to show that the state of the art rate-and-state models for the prediction of seismic hazard fail to capture inter-event interaction in the earthquake catalogue. Based on these findings, we suggest a modified rate-and-state model that also takes into account changes in gas production volumes and uncertainty in the pore pressure field.

physics.geo-ph↗