arXiv subjects

Zachary C. Lipton

Publications and source records attributed to Zachary C. Lipton.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Uncertainty-Aware Lookahead Factor Models for Quantitative Investing

On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies report fundamentals, financial data including revenue, earnings, debt, among others. Quantitative finance research has identified several factors, functions of the reported data that historically correlate with stock market performance. In this paper, we first show through simulation that if we could select stocks via factors calculated on future fundamentals (via oracle), that our portfolios would far outperform standard factor models. Motivated by this insight, we train deep nets to forecast future fundamentals from a trailing 5-year history. We propose lookahead factor models which plug these predicted future fundamentals into traditional factors. Finally, we incorporate uncertainty estimates from both neural heteroscedastic regression and a dropout-based heuristic, improving performance by adjusting our portfolios to avert risk. In retrospective analysis, we leverage an industry-grade portfolio simulator (backtester) to show simultaneous improvement in annualized return and Sharpe ratio. Specifically, the simulated annualized return for the uncertainty-aware model is 17.7% (vs 14.0% for a standard factor model) and the Sharpe ratio is 0.84 (vs 0.52).

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2020

Extracting Structured Data from Physician-Patient Conversations By Predicting Noteworthy Utterances

Despite diverse efforts to mine various modalities of medical data, the conversations between physicians and patients at the time of care remain an untapped source of insights. In this paper, we leverage this data to extract structured information that might assist physicians with post-visit documentation in electronic health records, potentially lightening the clerical burden. In this exploratory study, we describe a new dataset consisting of conversation transcripts, post-visit summaries, corresponding supporting evidence (in the transcript), and structured labels. We focus on the tasks of recognizing relevant diagnoses and abnormalities in the review of organ systems (RoS). One methodological challenge is that the conversations are long (around 1500 words), making it difficult for modern deep-learning models to use them as input. To address this challenge, we extract noteworthy utterances---parts of the conversation likely to be cited as evidence supporting some summary sentence. We find that by first filtering for (predicted) noteworthy utterances, we can significantly boost predictive performance for recognizing both diagnoses and RoS abnormalities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Predicting Mortality Risk in Viral and Unspecified Pneumonia to Assist Clinicians with COVID-19 ECMO Planning

Respiratory complications due to coronavirus disease COVID-19 have claimed tens of thousands of lives in 2020. Many cases of COVID-19 escalate from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) to viral pneumonia to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) to death. Extracorporeal membranous oxygenation (ECMO) is a life-sustaining oxygenation and ventilation therapy that may be used for patients with severe ARDS when mechanical ventilation is insufficient to sustain life. While early planning and surgical cannulation for ECMO can increase survival, clinicians report the lack of a risk score hinders these efforts. In this work, we leverage machine learning techniques to develop the PEER score, used to highlight critically ill patients with viral or unspecified pneumonia at high risk of mortality or decompensation in a subpopulation eligible for ECMO. The PEER score is validated on two large, publicly available critical care databases and predicts mortality at least as well as other existing risk scores. Stratifying our cohorts into low-risk and high-risk groups, we find that the high-risk group also has a higher proportion of decompensation indicators such as vasopressor and ventilator use. Finally, the PEER score is provided in the form of a nomogram for direct calculation of patient risk, and can be used to highlight at-risk patients among critical care patients eligible for ECMO.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Learning to Deceive with Attention-Based Explanations

Attention mechanisms are ubiquitous components in neural architectures applied to natural language processing. In addition to yielding gains in predictive accuracy, attention weights are often claimed to confer interpretability, purportedly useful both for providing insights to practitioners and for explaining why a model makes its decisions to stakeholders. We call the latter use of attention mechanisms into question by demonstrating a simple method for training models to produce deceptive attention masks. Our method diminishes the total weight assigned to designated impermissible tokens, even when the models can be shown to nevertheless rely on these features to drive predictions. Across multiple models and tasks, our approach manipulates attention weights while paying surprisingly little cost in accuracy. Through a human study, we show that our manipulated attention-based explanations deceive people into thinking that predictions from a model biased against gender minorities do not rely on the gender. Consequently, our results cast doubt on attention's reliability as a tool for auditing algorithms in the context of fairness and accountability.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2020

Learning the Difference that Makes a Difference with Counterfactually-Augmented Data

Despite alarm over the reliance of machine learning systems on so-called spurious patterns, the term lacks coherent meaning in standard statistical frameworks. However, the language of causality offers clarity: spurious associations are due to confounding (e.g., a common cause), but not direct or indirect causal effects. In this paper, we focus on natural language processing, introducing methods and resources for training models less sensitive to spurious patterns. Given documents and their initial labels, we task humans with revising each document so that it (i) accords with a counterfactual target label; (ii) retains internal coherence; and (iii) avoids unnecessary changes. Interestingly, on sentiment analysis and natural language inference tasks, classifiers trained on original data fail on their counterfactually-revised counterparts and vice versa. Classifiers trained on combined datasets perform remarkably well, just shy of those specialized to either domain. While classifiers trained on either original or manipulated data alone are sensitive to spurious features (e.g., mentions of genre), models trained on the combined data are less sensitive to this signal. Both datasets are publicly available.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2020

Algorithmic Fairness from a Non-ideal Perspective

Inspired by recent breakthroughs in predictive modeling, practitioners in both industry and government have turned to machine learning with hopes of operationalizing predictions to drive automated decisions. Unfortunately, many social desiderata concerning consequential decisions, such as justice or fairness, have no natural formulation within a purely predictive framework. In efforts to mitigate these problems, researchers have proposed a variety of metrics for quantifying deviations from various statistical parities that we might expect to observe in a fair world and offered a variety of algorithms in attempts to satisfy subsets of these parities or to trade off the degree to which they are satisfied against utility. In this paper, we connect this approach to \emph{fair machine learning} to the literature on ideal and non-ideal methodological approaches in political philosophy. The ideal approach requires positing the principles according to which a just world would operate. In the most straightforward application of ideal theory, one supports a proposed policy by arguing that it closes a discrepancy between the real and the perfectly just world. However, by failing to account for the mechanisms by which our non-ideal world arose, the responsibilities of various decision-makers, and the impacts of proposed policies, naive applications of ideal thinking can lead to misguided interventions. In this paper, we demonstrate a connection between the fair machine learning literature and the ideal approach in political philosophy, and argue that the increasingly apparent shortcomings of proposed fair machine learning algorithms reflect broader troubles faced by the ideal approach. We conclude with a critical discussion of the harms of misguided solutions, a reinterpretation of impossibility results, and directions for future research.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Game Design for Eliciting Distinguishable Behavior

The ability to inferring latent psychological traits from human behavior is key to developing personalized human-interacting machine learning systems. Approaches to infer such traits range from surveys to manually-constructed experiments and games. However, these traditional games are limited because they are typically designed based on heuristics. In this paper, we formulate the task of designing \emph{behavior diagnostic games} that elicit distinguishable behavior as a mutual information maximization problem, which can be solved by optimizing a variational lower bound. Our framework is instantiated by using prospect theory to model varying player traits, and Markov Decision Processes to parameterize the games. We validate our approach empirically, showing that our designed games can successfully distinguish among players with different traits, outperforming manually-designed ones by a large margin.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Learning Robust Global Representations by Penalizing Local Predictive Power

Despite their renowned predictive power on i.i.d. data, convolutional neural networks are known to rely more on high-frequency patterns that humans deem superficial than on low-frequency patterns that agree better with intuitions about what constitutes category membership. This paper proposes a method for training robust convolutional networks by penalizing the predictive power of the local representations learned by earlier layers. Intuitively, our networks are forced to discard predictive signals such as color and texture that can be gleaned from local receptive fields and to rely instead on the global structures of the image. Across a battery of synthetic and benchmark domain adaptation tasks, our method confers improved generalization out of the domain. Also, to evaluate cross-domain transfer, we introduce ImageNet-Sketch, a new dataset consisting of sketch-like images, that matches the ImageNet classification validation set in categories and scale.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

Practical Obstacles to Deploying Active Learning

Active learning (AL) is a widely-used training strategy for maximizing predictive performance subject to a fixed annotation budget. In AL one iteratively selects training examples for annotation, often those for which the current model is most uncertain (by some measure). The hope is that active sampling leads to better performance than would be achieved under independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random samples. While AL has shown promise in retrospective evaluations, these studies often ignore practical obstacles to its use. In this paper we show that while AL may provide benefits when used with specific models and for particular domains, the benefits of current approaches do not generalize reliably across models and tasks. This is problematic because in practice one does not have the opportunity to explore and compare alternative AL strategies. Moreover, AL couples the training dataset with the model used to guide its acquisition. We find that subsequently training a successor model with an actively-acquired dataset does not consistently outperform training on i.i.d. sampled data. Our findings raise the question of whether the downsides inherent to AL are worth the modest and inconsistent performance gains it tends to afford.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Failing Loudly: An Empirical Study of Methods for Detecting Dataset Shift

We might hope that when faced with unexpected inputs, well-designed software systems would fire off warnings. Machine learning (ML) systems, however, which depend strongly on properties of their inputs (e.g. the i.i.d. assumption), tend to fail silently. This paper explores the problem of building ML systems that fail loudly, investigating methods for detecting dataset shift, identifying exemplars that most typify the shift, and quantifying shift malignancy. We focus on several datasets and various perturbations to both covariates and label distributions with varying magnitudes and fractions of data affected. Interestingly, we show that across the dataset shifts that we explore, a two-sample-testing-based approach, using pre-trained classifiers for dimensionality reduction, performs best. Moreover, we demonstrate that domain-discriminating approaches tend to be helpful for characterizing shifts qualitatively and determining if they are harmful.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Are Perceptually-Aligned Gradients a General Property of Robust Classifiers?

For a standard convolutional neural network, optimizing over the input pixels to maximize the score of some target class will generally produce a grainy-looking version of the original image. However, Santurkar et al. (2019) demonstrated that for adversarially-trained neural networks, this optimization produces images that uncannily resemble the target class. In this paper, we show that these "perceptually-aligned gradients" also occur under randomized smoothing, an alternative means of constructing adversarially-robust classifiers. Our finding supports the hypothesis that perceptually-aligned gradients may be a general property of robust classifiers. We hope that our results will inspire research aimed at explaining this link between perceptually-aligned gradients and adversarial robustness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Accelerating Deep Learning by Focusing on the Biggest Losers

This paper introduces Selective-Backprop, a technique that accelerates the training of deep neural networks (DNNs) by prioritizing examples with high loss at each iteration. Selective-Backprop uses the output of a training example's forward pass to decide whether to use that example to compute gradients and update parameters, or to skip immediately to the next example. By reducing the number of computationally-expensive backpropagation steps performed, Selective-Backprop accelerates training. Evaluation on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and SVHN, across a variety of modern image models, shows that Selective-Backprop converges to target error rates up to 3.5x faster than with standard SGD and between 1.02--1.8x faster than a state-of-the-art importance sampling approach. Further acceleration of 26% can be achieved by using stale forward pass results for selection, thus also skipping forward passes of low priority examples.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Entity Projection via Machine Translation for Cross-Lingual NER

Although over 100 languages are supported by strong off-the-shelf machine translation systems, only a subset of them possess large annotated corpora for named entity recognition. Motivated by this fact, we leverage machine translation to improve annotation-projection approaches to cross-lingual named entity recognition. We propose a system that improves over prior entity-projection methods by: (a) leveraging machine translation systems twice: first for translating sentences and subsequently for translating entities; (b) matching entities based on orthographic and phonetic similarity; and (c) identifying matches based on distributional statistics derived from the dataset. Our approach improves upon current state-of-the-art methods for cross-lingual named entity recognition on 5 diverse languages by an average of 4.1 points. Further, our method achieves state-of-the-art F_1 scores for Armenian, outperforming even a monolingual model trained on Armenian source data.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Combating Adversarial Misspellings with Robust Word Recognition

To combat adversarial spelling mistakes, we propose placing a word recognition model in front of the downstream classifier. Our word recognition models build upon the RNN semi-character architecture, introducing several new backoff strategies for handling rare and unseen words. Trained to recognize words corrupted by random adds, drops, swaps, and keyboard mistakes, our method achieves 32% relative (and 3.3% absolute) error reduction over the vanilla semi-character model. Notably, our pipeline confers robustness on the downstream classifier, outperforming both adversarial training and off-the-shelf spell checkers. Against a BERT model fine-tuned for sentiment analysis, a single adversarially-chosen character attack lowers accuracy from 90.3% to 45.8%. Our defense restores accuracy to 75%. Surprisingly, better word recognition does not always entail greater robustness. Our analysis reveals that robustness also depends upon a quantity that we denote the sensitivity.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Active Learning with Partial Feedback

While many active learning papers assume that the learner can simply ask for a label and receive it, real annotation often presents a mismatch between the form of a label (say, one among many classes), and the form of an annotation (typically yes/no binary feedback). To annotate examples corpora for multiclass classification, we might need to ask multiple yes/no questions, exploiting a label hierarchy if one is available. To address this more realistic setting, we propose active learning with partial feedback (ALPF), where the learner must actively choose both which example to label and which binary question to ask. At each step, the learner selects an example, asking if it belongs to a chosen (possibly composite) class. Each answer eliminates some classes, leaving the learner with a partial label. The learner may then either ask more questions about the same example (until an exact label is uncovered) or move on immediately, leaving the first example partially labeled. Active learning with partial labels requires (i) a sampling strategy to choose (example, class) pairs, and (ii) learning from partial labels between rounds. Experiments on Tiny ImageNet demonstrate that our most effective method improves 26% (relative) in top-1 classification accuracy compared to i.i.d. baselines and standard active learners given 30% of the annotation budget that would be required (naively) to annotate the dataset. Moreover, ALPF-learners fully annotate TinyImageNet at 42% lower cost. Surprisingly, we observe that accounting for per-example annotation costs can alter the conventional wisdom that active learners should solicit labels for hard examples.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Estimating brain age based on a healthy population with deep learning and structural MRI

Numerous studies have established that estimated brain age, as derived from statistical models trained on healthy populations, constitutes a valuable biomarker that is predictive of cognitive decline and various neurological diseases. In this work, we curate a large-scale heterogeneous dataset (N = 10,158, age range 18 - 97) of structural brain MRIs in a healthy population from multiple publicly-available sources, upon which we train a deep learning model for brain age estimation. The availability of the large-scale dataset enables a more uniform age distribution across adult life-span for effective age estimation with no bias toward certain age groups. We demonstrate that the age estimation accuracy, evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE) and correlation coefficient (r), outperforms previously reported methods in both a hold-out test set reflective of the custom population (MAE = 4.06 years, r = 0.970) and an independent life-span evaluation dataset (MAE = 4.21 years, r = 0.960) on which a previous study has evaluated. We further demonstrate the utility of the estimated age in life-span aging analysis of cognitive functions. Furthermore, we conduct extensive ablation tests and employ feature-attribution techniques to analyze which regions contribute the most predictive value, demonstrating the prominence of the frontal lobe as well as pattern shift across life-span. In summary, we achieve superior age estimation performance confirming the efficacy of deep learning and the added utility of training with data both in larger number and more uniformly distributed than in previous studies. We demonstrate the regional contribution to our brain age predictions through multiple routes and confirm the association of divergence between estimated and chronological brain age with neuropsychological measures.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

What is the Effect of Importance Weighting in Deep Learning?

Importance-weighted risk minimization is a key ingredient in many machine learning algorithms for causal inference, domain adaptation, class imbalance, and off-policy reinforcement learning. While the effect of importance weighting is well-characterized for low-capacity misspecified models, little is known about how it impacts over-parameterized, deep neural networks. This work is inspired by recent theoretical results showing that on (linearly) separable data, deep linear networks optimized by SGD learn weight-agnostic solutions, prompting us to ask, for realistic deep networks, for which many practical datasets are separable, what is the effect of importance weighting? We present the surprising finding that while importance weighting impacts models early in training, its effect diminishes over successive epochs. Moreover, while L2 regularization and batch normalization (but not dropout), restore some of the impact of importance weighting, they express the effect via (seemingly) the wrong abstraction: why should practitioners tweak the L2 regularization, and by how much, to produce the correct weighting effect? Our experiments confirm these findings across a range of architectures and datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Efficient candidate screening under multiple tests and implications for fairness

When recruiting job candidates, employers rarely observe their underlying skill level directly. Instead, they must administer a series of interviews and/or collate other noisy signals in order to estimate the worker's skill. Traditional economics papers address screening models where employers access worker skill via a single noisy signal. In this paper, we extend this theoretical analysis to a multi-test setting, considering both Bernoulli and Gaussian models. We analyze the optimal employer policy both when the employer sets a fixed number of tests per candidate and when the employer can set a dynamic policy, assigning further tests adaptively based on results from the previous tests. To start, we characterize the optimal policy when employees constitute a single group, demonstrating some interesting trade-offs. Subsequently, we address the multi-group setting, demonstrating that when the noise levels vary across groups, a fundamental impossibility emerges whereby we cannot administer the same number of tests, subject candidates to the same decision rule, and yet realize the same outcomes in both groups.

cs.LG↗