arXiv subjects

Zachary Nado

Publications and source records attributed to Zachary Nado.

21 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying uncertainty is especially critical in real-world settings, which often involve input distributions that are shifted from the training distribution due to a variety of factors including sample bias and non-stationarity. In such settings, well calibrated uncertainty estimates convey information about when a model's output should (or should not) be trusted. Many probabilistic deep learning methods, including Bayesian-and non-Bayesian methods, have been proposed in the literature for quantifying predictive uncertainty, but to our knowledge there has not previously been a rigorous large-scale empirical comparison of these methods under dataset shift. We present a large-scale benchmark of existing state-of-the-art methods on classification problems and investigate the effect of dataset shift on accuracy and calibration. We find that traditional post-hoc calibration does indeed fall short, as do several other previous methods. However, some methods that marginalize over models give surprisingly strong results across a broad spectrum of tasks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

Which Algorithmic Choices Matter at Which Batch Sizes? Insights From a Noisy Quadratic Model

Increasing the batch size is a popular way to speed up neural network training, but beyond some critical batch size, larger batch sizes yield diminishing returns. In this work, we study how the critical batch size changes based on properties of the optimization algorithm, including acceleration and preconditioning, through two different lenses: large scale experiments, and analysis of a simple noisy quadratic model (NQM). We experimentally demonstrate that optimization algorithms that employ preconditioning, specifically Adam and K-FAC, result in much larger critical batch sizes than stochastic gradient descent with momentum. We also demonstrate that the NQM captures many of the essential features of real neural network training, despite being drastically simpler to work with. The NQM predicts our results with preconditioned optimizers, previous results with accelerated gradient descent, and other results around optimal learning rates and large batch training, making it a useful tool to generate testable predictions about neural network optimization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

AutoGraph: Imperative-style Coding with Graph-based Performance

There is a perceived trade-off between machine learning code that is easy to write, and machine learning code that is scalable or fast to execute. In machine learning, imperative style libraries like Autograd and PyTorch are easy to write, but suffer from high interpretive overhead and are not easily deployable in production or mobile settings. Graph-based libraries like TensorFlow and Theano benefit from whole-program optimization and can be deployed broadly, but make expressing complex models more cumbersome. We describe how the use of staged programming in Python, via source code transformation, offers a midpoint between these two library design patterns, capturing the benefits of both. A key insight is to delay all type-dependent decisions until runtime, via dynamic dispatch. We instantiate these principles in AutoGraph, a software system that improves the programming experience of the TensorFlow library, and demonstrate usability improvements with no loss in performance compared to native TensorFlow graphs. We also show that our system is backend agnostic, and demonstrate targeting an alternate IR with characteristics not found in TensorFlow graphs.

cs.PL↗