arXiv subjects

Zachary Sunberg

Publications and source records attributed to Zachary Sunberg.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Scalable Rao-Blackwellized Online Planning for High-Dimensional POMDPs

Online planning under uncertainty remains a fundamental challenge for robotic systems operating in partially observable environments with high-dimensional state spaces. While sampling-based POMDP solvers enable approximate decision-making in large or continuous domains, their performance degrades as belief dimensionality increases due to the high variance inherent in Monte Carlo-based estimation. In this work, we extend the Rao-Blackwellized online POMDP (RB-POMDP) framework to improve its generalizability in high-dimensional settings through hybrid continuous-discrete belief representations. By analytically propagating uncertainty associated with marginalized state components during tree-based planning, the proposed approach reduces sampling-induced variance in value estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework in a robotic search-and-rescue task by integrating it with FastSLAM 2.0. Experimental results show that the proposed planner achieves higher cumulative rewards using significantly fewer particles and planning simulations than purely sampling-based methods under equivalent computational budgets. These results suggest that structured high-dimensional robotic problems admitting tractable sufficient statistics can be effectively leveraged within the RB-POMDP framework for computationally feasible online decision-making.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

GOLEM: Modular Humanoid Autonomy Towards Electric Vehicle Battery Disassembly

Disassembling end-of-life electric vehicle (EV) battery packs is dull and dangerous work, performed almost entirely by humans. We present GOLEM (Generalized Open Library of Embodied Modules), an end-to-end, open-source system architecture for EV battery disassembly with the Unitree H1-2 humanoid robot in which walking, manipulation, dynamic stability, navigation, and spatial memory are independent modules with abstract interfaces, so that methods are easily developed, interchanged, and compared. GOLEM is deployed as a Docker-based ROS 2 abstraction in which MuJoCo and IsaacLab digital twins expose interfaces matching the physical robot. GOLEM's composability and per-module customization enable development and demonstration of humanoid EV battery disassembly, from simulation to reality. GOLEM provides fair comparison between humanoid modules, enabling evaluation as a capability ladder, in which one module is characterized at a time and added as a rung: LiDAR-inertial navigation places the robot within 13.0cm of a 6m goal; a learned standing controller recovers from external disturbances that sampling-based lower-body MPC does not; and grasping loosened fasteners from a real Hyundai Ioniq 5 pack degrades from 97% tethered to 87% free-standing to 37% under navigation-induced pose variance. Source code is available at the project page https://golem-humanoid.github.io

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Simultaneous AlphaZero: Extending Tree Search to Markov Games

Many strategic planning problems require agents to act simultaneously, making turn-based search unsuitable and requiring a normal form game to be solved at each tree state. We introduce Simultaneous AlphaZero, a learning and search method for continuous-state, two-player zero-sum deterministic Markov games. A learned value function bootstraps finite-depth regret-matching search, while approximate regret transfer uses learned regret and average-strategy functions to warm start the local solver at deployment. We establish complementary guarantees for both components. First, we show that even a shallow finite-depth solver contracts errors in its learned frontier values, and we bound how local solution and value-fitting errors propagate through repeated learning and search. Second, imperfect regret and average-strategy transfer yields a finite-time approximate-equilibrium bound decomposing ordinary regret, game mismatch, regret-fitting error, and strategy-fitting error; any fixed finite warm start preserves the solver's asymptotic no-regret guarantee. Experiments in continuous Dubins pursuit-evasion and satellite custody maintenance compare unguided, value-only, and fully transferred search in direct solver cross-play. Across both domains, oracle-guided search generally improves performance over unguided search, demonstrating effective game-theoretic planning in large continuous state spaces.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Beyond Fixed Goal Delivery: Online POMDP Planning for Target Interception in Crowds

Target interception in crowded environments requires reaching a moving objective while navigating among multiple uncertain human agents. Since human navigation intent is not directly observable, the robot must reason over multiple possible future interaction outcomes. We formulate interception in crowds as a partially observable Markov decision process and solve it online using tree search under a fixed computational budget. In this setting, the action-space structure directly shapes the search tree and how computational effort is allocated. We perform a controlled comparison between a sequential path-speed planner, which first plans a spatial path and then modulates speed along it, and a unified planner that jointly branches over steering and speed within tree search. Across simulations with up to 200 humans, both approaches perform similarly at low crowd density but diverge sharply as density increases. At the highest crowd density, the sequential planner has a safe-interception rate 31 percentage points lower and requires 44% more time than the unified steering-speed planner, revealing a structural limitation of spatial restriction. Project webpage: https://tic-planning.github.io/

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Efficient Multi-Robot Motion Planning with Precomputed Translation-Invariant Edge Bundles

Solving multi-robot motion planning (MRMP) requires generating collision-free kinodynamically feasible trajectories for multiple interacting robots. We introduce Kinodynamic Translation-Invariant Edge Bundles or KiTE-Extend, a planner-agnostic action selection mechanism for sampling-based kinodynamic motion planning. KiTE-Extend uses a library of trajectory segments computed offline to guide action selection during online planning, improving the ability of existing planners to identify feasible motion segments without altering state propagation, collision checking, or cost evaluation, and without changing their theoretical guarantees. While KiTE-Extend can modestly improve single-agent planners, its benefits are most clear in the multi-agent setting, where it is able to explore more effectively and significantly improve planning through the dense spatiotemporal constraints introduced by robot-robot interaction. Through experiments on multiple kinodynamic systems and environments, we show that KiTE-Extend reduces planning time and improves scalability across the three most common MRMP paradigms: centralized, prioritized, and conflict-based.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Robustness Analysis of POMDP Policies to Observation Perturbations

Policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are often designed using a nominal system model. In practice, this model can deviate from the true system during deployment due to factors such as calibration drift or sensor degradation, leading to unexpected performance degradation. This work studies policy robustness against deviations in the POMDP observation model. We introduce the Policy Observation Robustness Problem: to determine the maximum tolerable deviation in a POMDP's observation model that guarantees the policy's value remains above a specified threshold. We analyze two variants: the sticky variant, where deviations are dependent on state and actions, and the non-sticky variant, where they can be history-dependent. We show that the Policy Observation Robustness Problem can be formulated as a bi-level optimization problem in which the inner optimization is monotonic in the size of the observation deviation. This enables efficient solutions using root-finding algorithms in the outer optimization. For the non-sticky variant, we show that when policies are represented with finite-state controllers (FSCs) it is sufficient to consider observations which depend on nodes in the FSC rather than full histories. We present Robust Interval Search, an algorithm with soundness and convergence guarantees, for both the sticky and non-sticky variants. We show this algorithm has polynomial time complexity in the non-sticky variant and at most exponential time complexity in the sticky variant. We provide experimental results validating and demonstrating the scalability of implementations of Robust Interval Search to POMDP problems with tens of thousands of states. We also provide case studies from robotics and operations research which demonstrate the practical utility of the problem and algorithms.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Leveraging the Value of Information in POMDP Planning

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) offer a principled formalism for planning under state and transition uncertainty. Despite advances made towards solving large POMDPs, obtaining performant policies under limited planning time remains a major challenge due to the curse of dimensionality and the curse of history. For many POMDP problems, the value of information (VOI) - the expected performance gain from reasoning about observations - varies over the belief space. We introduce a dynamic programming framework that exploits this structure by conditionally processing observations based on the value of information at each belief. Building on this framework, we propose Value of Information Monte Carlo planning (VOIMCP), a Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithm that allocates computational effort more efficiently by selectively disregarding observation information when the VOI is low, avoiding unnecessary branching of observations. We provide theoretical guarantees on the near-optimality of our VOI reasoning framework and derive non-asymptotic convergence bounds for VOIMCP. Simulation evaluations demonstrate that VOIMCP outperforms baselines on several POMDP benchmarks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Bridging the Gap between Partially Observable Stochastic Games and Sparse POMDP Methods

Many real-world decision problems involve the interaction of multiple self-interested agents with limited sensing ability. The partially observable stochastic game (POSG) provides a mathematical framework for modeling these problems, however solving a POSG requires difficult reasoning over two critical factors: (1) information revealed by partial observations and (2) decisions other agents make. In the single agent case, partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) planning can efficiently address partial observability with particle filtering. In the multi-agent case, extensive form game solution methods account for other agent's decisions, but preclude belief approximation. We propose a unifying framework that combines POMDP-inspired state distribution approximation and game-theoretic equilibrium search on information sets. This paper lays a theoretical foundation for the approach by bounding errors due to belief approximation, and empirically demonstrates effectiveness with a numerical example. The new approach enables planning in POSGs with very large state spaces, paving the way for reliable autonomous interaction in real-world physical environments and complementing multi-agent reinforcement learning.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Leveraging Counterfactual Paths for Contrastive Explanations of POMDP Policies

As humans come to rely on autonomous systems more, ensuring the transparency of such systems is important to their continued adoption. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to reduce confusion and foster trust in systems by providing explanations of agent behavior. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a flexible framework capable of reasoning over transition and state uncertainty, while also being amenable to explanation. This work investigates the use of user-provided counterfactuals to generate contrastive explanations of POMDP policies. Feature expectations are used as a means of contrasting the performance of these policies. We demonstrate our approach in a Search and Rescue (SAR) setting. We analyze and discuss the associated challenges through two case studies.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Human-Centered Autonomy for UAS Target Search

Current methods of deploying robots that operate in dynamic, uncertain environments, such as Uncrewed Aerial Systems in search \& rescue missions, require nearly continuous human supervision for vehicle guidance and operation. These methods do not consider high-level mission context resulting in cumbersome manual operation or inefficient exhaustive search patterns. We present a human-centered autonomous framework that infers geospatial mission context through dynamic feature sets, which then guides a probabilistic target search planner. Operators provide a set of diverse inputs, including priority definition, spatial semantic information about ad-hoc geographical areas, and reference waypoints, which are probabilistically fused with geographical database information and condensed into a geospatial distribution representing an operator's preferences over an area. An online, POMDP-based planner, optimized for target searching, is augmented with this reward map to generate an operator-constrained policy. Our results, simulated based on input from five professional rescuers, display effective task mental model alignment, 18\% more victim finds, and 15 times more efficient guidance plans then current operational methods.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2023

Investigation of risk-aware MDP and POMDP contingency management autonomy for UAS

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being increasingly adopted for various applications. The risk UAS poses to people and property must be kept to acceptable levels. This paper proposes risk-aware contingency management autonomy to prevent an accident in the event of component malfunction, specifically propulsion unit failure and/or battery degradation. The proposed autonomy is modeled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) whose solution is a contingency management policy that appropriately executes emergency landing, flight termination or continuation of planned flight actions. Motivated by the potential for errors in fault/failure indicators, partial observability of the MDP state space is investigated. The performance of optimal policies is analyzed over varying observability conditions in a high-fidelity simulator. Results indicate that both partially observable MDP (POMDP) and maximum a posteriori MDP policies performed similarly over different state observability criteria, given the nearly deterministic state transition model.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2022

Navigation between initial and desired community states using shortcuts

Ecological management problems often involve navigating from an initial to a desired community state. We ask whether navigation is possible without brute-force additions and deletions of species, using actions of varying costs: adding/deleting a small number of individuals of a species, changing the environment, and waiting. Navigation can yield direct paths (single sequence of actions) or shortcut paths (multiple sequences of actions with lower cost than a direct path). We ask (1) when is non-brute-force navigation possible?; (2) do shortcuts exist and what are their properties?; and (3) what heuristics predict shortcut existence? Using several empirical datasets, we show that (1) non-brute-force navigation is only possible between some state pairs, (2) shortcuts exist between many state pairs; and (3) changes in abundance and richness are the strongest predictors of shortcut existence, independent of dataset and algorithm choices. State diagrams thus unveil hidden strategies for efficiently shifting between states.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Intention-Aware Navigation in Crowds with Extended-Space POMDP Planning

This paper presents a hybrid online Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) planning system that addresses the problem of autonomous navigation in the presence of multi-modal uncertainty introduced by other agents in the environment. As a particular example, we consider the problem of autonomous navigation in dense crowds of pedestrians and among obstacles. Popular approaches to this problem first generate a path using a complete planner (e.g., Hybrid A*) with ad-hoc assumptions about uncertainty, then use online tree-based POMDP solvers to reason about uncertainty with control over a limited aspect of the problem (i.e. speed along the path). We present a more capable and responsive real-time approach enabling the POMDP planner to control more degrees of freedom (e.g., both speed AND heading) to achieve more flexible and efficient solutions. This modification greatly extends the region of the state space that the POMDP planner must reason over, significantly increasing the importance of finding effective roll-out policies within the limited computational budget that real time control affords. Our key insight is to use multi-query motion planning techniques (e.g., Probabilistic Roadmaps or Fast Marching Method) as priors for rapidly generating efficient roll-out policies for every state that the POMDP planning tree might reach during its limited horizon search. Our proposed approach generates trajectories that are safe and significantly more efficient than the previous approach, even in densely crowded dynamic environments with long planning horizons.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2022

Improving Automated Driving through POMDP Planning with Human Internal States

This work examines the hypothesis that partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) planning with human driver internal states can significantly improve both safety and efficiency in autonomous freeway driving. We evaluate this hypothesis in a simulated scenario where an autonomous car must safely perform three lane changes in rapid succession. Approximate POMDP solutions are obtained through the partially observable Monte Carlo planning with observation widening (POMCPOW) algorithm. This approach outperforms over-confident and conservative MDP baselines and matches or outperforms QMDP. Relative to the MDP baselines, POMCPOW typically cuts the rate of unsafe situations in half or increases the success rate by 50%.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Bayesian Optimized Monte Carlo Planning

Online solvers for partially observable Markov decision processes have difficulty scaling to problems with large action spaces. Monte Carlo tree search with progressive widening attempts to improve scaling by sampling from the action space to construct a policy search tree. The performance of progressive widening search is dependent upon the action sampling policy, often requiring problem-specific samplers. In this work, we present a general method for efficient action sampling based on Bayesian optimization. The proposed method uses a Gaussian process to model a belief over the action-value function and selects the action that will maximize the expected improvement in the optimal action value. We implement the proposed approach in a new online tree search algorithm called Bayesian Optimized Monte Carlo Planning (BOMCP). Several experiments show that BOMCP is better able to scale to large action space POMDPs than existing state-of-the-art tree search solvers.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

Online algorithms for POMDPs with continuous state, action, and observation spaces

Online solvers for partially observable Markov decision processes have been applied to problems with large discrete state spaces, but continuous state, action, and observation spaces remain a challenge. This paper begins by investigating double progressive widening (DPW) as a solution to this challenge. However, we prove that this modification alone is not sufficient because the belief representations in the search tree collapse to a single particle causing the algorithm to converge to a policy that is suboptimal regardless of the computation time. This paper proposes and evaluates two new algorithms, POMCPOW and PFT-DPW, that overcome this deficiency by using weighted particle filtering. Simulation results show that these modifications allow the algorithms to be successful where previous approaches fail.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2017

Simultaneous active parameter estimation and control using sampling-based Bayesian reinforcement learning

Robots performing manipulation tasks must operate under uncertainty about both their pose and the dynamics of the system. In order to remain robust to modeling error and shifts in payload dynamics, agents must simultaneously perform estimation and control tasks. However, the optimal estimation actions are often not the optimal actions for accomplishing the control tasks, and thus agents trade between exploration and exploitation. This work frames the problem as a Bayes-adaptive Markov decision process and solves it online using Monte Carlo tree search and an extended Kalman filter to handle Gaussian process noise and parameter uncertainty in a continuous space. MCTS selects control actions to reduce model uncertainty and reach the goal state nearly optimally. Certainty equivalent model predictive control is used as a benchmark to compare performance in simulations with varying process noise and parameter uncertainty.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2017

The Value of Inferring the Internal State of Traffic Participants for Autonomous Freeway Driving

Safe interaction with human drivers is one of the primary challenges for autonomous vehicles. In order to plan driving maneuvers effectively, the vehicle's control system must infer and predict how humans will behave based on their latent internal state (e.g., intentions and aggressiveness). This research uses a simple model for human behavior with unknown parameters that make up the internal states of the traffic participants and presents a method for quantifying the value of estimating these states and planning with their uncertainty explicitly modeled. An upper performance bound is established by an omniscient Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) planner that has perfect knowledge of the internal states. A baseline lower bound is established by planning with MCTS assuming that all drivers have the same internal state. MCTS variants are then used to solve a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) that models the internal state uncertainty to determine whether inferring the internal state offers an advantage over the baseline. Applying this method to a freeway lane changing scenario reveals that there is a significant performance gap between the upper bound and baseline. POMDP planning techniques come close to closing this gap, especially when important hidden model parameters are correlated with measurable parameters.

cs.AI↗