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Zachary T. Rewolinski

Publications and source records attributed to Zachary T. Rewolinski.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Local MDI+: Local Feature Importances for Tree-Based Models

Tree-based ensembles such as random forests remain the go-to for tabular data over deep learning models due to their prediction performance and computational efficiency. These advantages have led to their widespread deployment in high-stakes domains, where interpretability is essential for ensuring trustworthy predictions. This has motivated the development of popular local feature importance methods such as LIME and TreeSHAP. However, these approaches rely on approximations that ignore the model's internal structure and instead depend on potentially unstable perturbations. These issues are addressed in the global setting by MDI+, a global feature importance method which combines tree-based and linear feature importances by exploiting an equivalence between decision trees and least squares on a transformed node basis. However, the global MDI+ scores are not able to explain predictions when faced with heterogeneous individual characteristics. To address this gap, we propose Local MDI+ (LMDI+), a novel extension of the MDI+ framework that quantifies feature importances for each particular sample. Across twelve real-world benchmark datasets, LMDI+ outperforms existing baselines at identifying instance-specific predictive features, yielding an average 10% improvement in predictive performance when using only the selected features. It further demonstrates greater stability by consistently producing similar instance-level feature importance rankings across repeated model fits with different random seeds. Ablation experiments show that each component of LMDI+ contributes to these gains, and that the improvements extend beyond random forests to gradient boosting models. Finally, we show that LMDI+ enables local interpretability use cases by identifying closely matched counterfactuals for each classification benchmark and discovering homogeneous subgroups in a housing dataset case study.

cs.LG↗

Sanity Checks for Agentic Data Science

Agentic data science (ADS) pipelines have grown rapidly in both capability and adoption, with systems such as OpenAI Codex now able to directly analyze datasets and produce answers to statistical questions. However, these systems can reach falsely optimistic conclusions that are difficult for users to detect. To address this, we propose a pair of lightweight sanity checks grounded in the Predictability-Computability-Stability (PCS) framework for veridical data science. These checks use reasonable perturbations to screen whether an agent can reliably distinguish signal from noise, acting as a falsifiability constraint that can expose affirmative conclusions as unsupported. Together, the two checks characterize the trustworthiness of an ADS output, e.g. whether it has found stable signal, is responding to noise, or is sensitive to incidental aspects of the input. We validate the approach on synthetic data with controlled signal-to-noise ratios, confirming that the sanity checks track ground-truth signal strength. We then demonstrate the checks on 11 real-world datasets using OpenAI Codex, characterizing the trustworthiness of each conclusion and finding that in 6 of the datasets an affirmative conclusion is not well-supported, even though a single ADS run may support one. We further analyze failure modes of ADS systems and find that ADS self-reported confidence is poorly calibrated to the empirical stability of its conclusions.

cs.AI↗

PCS Workflow for Veridical Data Science in the Age of AI

Data science is a pillar of artificial intelligence (AI), which is transforming nearly every domain of human activity, from the social and physical sciences to engineering and medicine. While data-driven findings in AI offer unprecedented power to extract insights and guide decision-making, many are difficult or impossible to replicate. A key reason for this challenge is the uncertainty introduced by the many choices made throughout the data science life cycle (DSLC). Traditional statistical frameworks often fail to account for this uncertainty. The Predictability-Computability-Stability (PCS) framework for veridical (truthful) data science offers a principled approach to addressing this challenge throughout the DSLC. This paper presents an updated and streamlined PCS workflow, tailored for practitioners and enhanced with guided use of generative AI. We include a running example to display the PCS framework in action, and conduct a related case study which showcases the uncertainty in downstream predictions caused by judgment calls in the data cleaning stage.

cs.LG↗