arXiv subjects

Zachary Wooten

Publications and source records attributed to Zachary Wooten.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Tree-Based Predictive Models for Noisy Input Data

Measurement error is prevalent across all domains of scientific research where only imprecise observations, rather than the true underlying values, can be obtained. For example, estimates of human microbiome diversity are based on small samples from a much larger, generally unobserved system and reflect both sampling error and technical variation. In high-noise settings like these, it becomes difficult to make accurate predictions and to summarize uncertainty. Methods have previously been proposed to accommodate measurement error in classic predictive models, such as linear regression. However, relatively little work has been done to address measurement error in more complex and flexible models. Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), a Bayesian nonparametric model that sums the output of many decision trees, offers robust predictions with built-in uncertainty quantification. In this work, we propose measurement error BART (meBART), a novel extension to the BART model that directly incorporates measurement error in the independent variable(s). Through simulation studies, we show that in the presence of measurement error, our model enables more accurate parameter estimation, more robust uncertainty quantification, and superior predictive performance. We illustrate the utility of our proposed approach through two biomedical applications where the predictors of interest are subject to measurement error.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Weighted Sum-of-Trees Model for Clustered Data

Clustered data, which arise when observations are nested within groups, are incredibly common in clinical, education, and social science research. Traditionally, a linear mixed model, which includes random effects to account for within-group correlation, would be used to model the observed data and make new predictions on unseen data. Some work has been done to extend the mixed model approach beyond linear regression into more complex and non-parametric models, such as decision trees and random forests. However, existing methods are limited to using the global fixed effects for prediction on data from out-of-sample groups, effectively assuming that all clusters share a common outcome model. We propose a lightweight sum-of-trees model in which we learn a decision tree for each sample group. We combine the predictions from these trees using weights so that out-of-sample group predictions are more closely aligned with the most similar groups in the training data. This strategy also allows for inference on the similarity across groups in the outcome prediction model, as the unique tree structures and variable importances for each group can be directly compared. We show our model outperforms traditional decision trees and random forests in a variety of simulation settings. Finally, we showcase our method on real-world data from the sarcoma cohort of The Cancer Genome Atlas, where patient samples are grouped by sarcoma subtype.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Deep Learning-Based Dose Prediction for Automated, Individualized Quality Assurance of Head and Neck Radiation Therapy Plans

Purpose: This study aimed to use deep learning-based dose prediction to assess head and neck (HN) plan quality and identify suboptimal plans. Methods: A total of 245 VMAT HN plans were created using RapidPlan knowledge-based planning (KBP). A subset of 112 high-quality plans was selected under the supervision of an HN radiation oncologist. We trained a 3D Dense Dilated U-Net architecture to predict 3-dimensional dose distributions using 3-fold cross-validation on 90 plans. Model inputs included CT images, target prescriptions, and contours for targets and organs at risk (OARs). The model's performance was assessed on the remaining 22 test plans. We then tested the application of the dose prediction model for automated review of plan quality. Dose distributions were predicted on 14 clinical plans. The predicted versus clinical OAR dose metrics were compared to flag OARs with suboptimal normal tissue sparing using a 2 Gy dose difference or 3% dose-volume threshold. OAR flags were compared to manual flags by 3 HN radiation oncologists. Results: The predicted dose distributions were of comparable quality to the KBP plans. The differences between the predicted and KBP-planned D1%, D95%, and D99% across the targets were within -2.53%(SD=1.34%), -0.42%(SD=1.27%), and -0.12%(SD=1.97%), respectively, and the OAR mean and maximum doses were within -0.33Gy(SD=1.40Gy) and -0.96Gy(SD=2.08Gy). For the plan quality assessment study, radiation oncologists flagged 47 OARs for possible plan improvement. There was high interphysician variability; 83% of physician-flagged OARs were flagged by only one of 3 physicians. The comparative dose prediction model flagged 63 OARs, including 30 of 47 physician-flagged OARs. Conclusion: Deep learning can predict high-quality dose distributions, which can be used as comparative dose distributions for automated, individualized assessment of HN plan quality.

physics.med-ph↗