arXiv subjects

Zangir Iklassov

Publications and source records attributed to Zangir Iklassov.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Trade-Adaptive Aggregation of Probabilistic Financial Forecasts

Financial NLP systems produce probabilistic forecasts from news, reports, and filings. Prediction markets can aggregate these forecasts sequentially, but their fees must reward information without overcharging low-risk updates. Existing quadratic-fee mechanisms use a state-blind bound, while a local-curvature envelope remains conservative because it prices every trade at the largest permitted span. We introduce SpanPM, a prediction-market mechanism that sets the local-curvature multiplier from each trade's realized payoff spread. Its fee dominates exact Bregman exposure trade by trade, preserves no arbitrage, information incorporation, expressiveness, and bounded worst-case loss, and yields a tighter overcharge factor approaching one as trade span vanishes. Repeated global best responses converge to a common belief and become full Newton steps locally, giving quadratic rather than damped-linear convergence. We implement a deterministic bounded one-dimensional multi-basin search, audited against a dense grid. Across paired synthetic experiments, SpanPM improves 20-round consensus error by several orders of magnitude over a fixed-envelope local baseline under the same hard cap. With evolving beliefs, it preserves 96--97\% of the trader surplus achieved with exact Bregman fees while cutting excess fees by 94\% relative to the global quadratic mechanism. These results establish a trade-adaptive prediction-market mechanism for sequential aggregation of probabilistic financial forecasts.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

LLM-BabyBench: Can Language Models Plan in Worlds They Can Simulate?

When an interactive benchmark reports a single success rate for a language-model agent, it is rarely clear what that number measures. A failure can come from perception, ambiguous instructions, retrieval, missing commonsense about what actions do, an incorrect model of the dynamics, or planning, and an aggregate score does not separate them. LLM-BabyBench recasts the procedurally generated BabyAI gridworld as a fully observable, purely textual environment in which every source of failure but planning is removed by construction. The whole grid is serialised into the prompt, instructions come from a small formal grammar, every object's coordinate is stated, the six actions and their effects are specified, and a deterministic expert validates each answer by executing it rather than judging it. On this substrate we define the PPD suite: Predict asks for the state that follows an action sequence, Plan for an action sequence that reaches a goal, and Decompose for a subgoal sequence that achieves a mission, scored by three assistance-aware metrics that separate understanding a mission from sequencing it. Across seven frontier and open models, simulation is far ahead of planning for every model, near saturation for the strongest and well short of it for the weakest, and the length of the required solution, not grid size or obstacle count, governs planning failure. Each model has a characteristic horizon beyond which single-attempt success collapses. Where enough instances are solved to support the ratio, returned plans stay near-optimal. Models that write out their working show why: they commit to one family of corridor-shaped route and verify it with no means of backing out, so what they return is either near-optimal or invalid. The same pattern holds one level up: decomposition precision falls to zero on long missions even where comprehension persists.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

How Robust Are Automated Fact-Checking Systems? A Cross-Benchmark Evaluation

Automated fact-checking (AFC) systems retrieve evidence and predict claim veracity, yet evaluations omit simple baselines, systems are developed for a single benchmark and cannot be trusted to generalise across domains. No prior work cross-evaluates the full two-stage retrieve-then-verify pipeline across diverse datasets, complementing retrieval-only studies (Thakur et al., 2021) and single-stage benchmarking studies (Calamai et al., 2025). We benchmark nine models, ranging from random and sparse baselines to fine-tuned transformers, zero-shot LLMs, and the two highest-ranked systems from the AVeriTeC 2025 shared task, across four datasets spanning scientific, open-web, and climate domains. Three findings stand out: (1) on ClimateCheck claim-only and fine-tuned models outperform zero-shot LLM and top-performing AVeriTeC 2025 systems, highlighting that noisy evidence can degrade veracity prediction; (2) system rankings are strongly domain- and metric-dependent: the best model on SciFact (macro-F1 0.70) drops to 0.31 on ClimateCheck, while the AVeriTeC 2025 winner and runner-up swap rankings based on evaluation metrics and datasets; (3) replacing retrieved evidence with gold annotations improves veracity accuracy by 14-22 points across models, confirming retrieval remains primary bottleneck. We release code, pre-processed datasets, and all results to support reproducible AFC research.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

SymStep: Symbolic Step Verification for Logical Reasoning

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting can fail severely on constraint-dense logical reasoning tasks, where unverified errors accumulate silently across steps. We introduce SymStep: an LLM makes one atomic claim at a time (DEDUCE: Alice, pet, Cat), then a lightweight constraint propagator checks the claim for consistency with prior accepted deductions, rejects contradictions, and cascades implied facts automatically. SymStep+G additionally provides MRV guidance after each accepted step, directing the LLM toward the most constrained unresolved variable. On a 35-puzzle retained subset of ZebraLogicBench, a benchmark of 1,000 Einstein-style logic puzzles, Direct and CoT both achieve 0%, while SymStep+G reaches 97%. On AR-LSAT analytical reasoning problems, SymStep achieves 100% vs. CoT's 87%. On LGP-14, SymStep+G achieves 100% vs. 0% for CoT and Logic-LM, the strongest prior symbolic+LLM baseline we compare against. Ablation studies reveal that MRV guidance is a key mechanism for reducing directionless cycling, while consistency checking provides a safety net against explicit contradictions. Across six benchmarks spanning five task domains, SymStep variants match or exceed every baseline on constraint-dense and arithmetic tasks. Experiments on AQUA-RAT algebra confirm the advantage is constraint-density-specific.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Einstein World Models

Does intelligence require the ability to reason about phenomena beyond direct experience? It is natural to suspect that some complex thought cannot be captured through language alone. However, of particular concern to this work, is whether visualising counterfactual events can complement language as a mechanism for complex thought. We ask whether LLMs can be trained to utilise such visualisation mechanisms, in a way that benefits their reasoning abilities. Motivated by this question, we propose Einstein World Models. EWMs are a blueprint for LLM-based reasoning systems that place visual-temporal rollouts inside the reasoning trace, allowing them to reason in ways that text alone may not support well. In an EWM, the LLM calls a world-module (not to be confused with a world model), to produce short rollouts of scenes under consideration. The returned rollout is treated not as the answer, but as an inspectable hypothesis that can support later reasoning. Einstein World Models extend the capability of LLMs for tool calling (such as web search or code execution), into the domain of visual thought experiments.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Measuring AI Reasoning: A Guide for Researchers

In this paper, we offer a guide for researchers on evaluating reasoning in language models, building the case that reasoning should be assessed through evidence of adaptive, multi-step search rather than final-answer accuracy alone. Under an evaluation-oriented definition, reasoning requires selecting intermediate steps and halting according to input-dependent conditions, which we formalize as a search-like procedure. We show that single forward passes in scalable architectures are structurally limited in their ability to realize such variable-depth computation, motivating intermediate decoding and externalized reasoning traces as appropriate evaluation interfaces. Central to our argument is that final-answer accuracy alone is an insufficient measure of reasoning, because it provides little ability to diagnose or debug the underlying processes that produce individual solutions in frontier models. We therefore argue for a shift toward process-based evaluation, in which reasoning is assessed through the faithfulness and validity of intermediate reasoning traces as first-class evaluation targets.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

The AI Data Scientist

Imagine decision-makers uploading data and, within minutes, receiving clear, actionable insights delivered straight to their fingertips. That is the promise of the AI Data Scientist, an autonomous Agent powered by large language models (LLMs) that closes the gap between evidence and action. Rather than simply writing code or responding to prompts, it reasons through questions, tests ideas, and delivers end-to-end insights at a pace far beyond traditional workflows. Guided by the scientific tenet of the hypothesis, this Agent uncovers explanatory patterns in data, evaluates their statistical significance, and uses them to inform predictive modeling. It then translates these results into recommendations that are both rigorous and accessible. At the core of the AI Data Scientist is a team of specialized LLM Subagents, each responsible for a distinct task such as data cleaning, statistical testing, validation, and plain-language communication. These Subagents write their own code, reason about causality, and identify when additional data is needed to support sound conclusions. Together, they achieve in minutes what might otherwise take days or weeks, enabling a new kind of interaction that makes deep data science both accessible and actionable.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

SVRPBench: A Realistic Benchmark for Stochastic Vehicle Routing Problem

Robust routing under uncertainty is central to real-world logistics, yet most benchmarks assume static, idealized settings. We present SVRPBench, the first open benchmark to capture high-fidelity stochastic dynamics in vehicle routing at urban scale. Spanning more than 500 instances with up to 1000 customers, it simulates realistic delivery conditions: time-dependent congestion, log-normal delays, probabilistic accidents, and empirically grounded time windows for residential and commercial clients. Our pipeline generates diverse, constraint-rich scenarios, including multi-depot and multi-vehicle setups. Benchmarking reveals that state-of-the-art RL solvers like POMO and AM degrade by over 20% under distributional shift, while classical and metaheuristic methods remain robust. To enable reproducible research, we release the dataset and evaluation suite. SVRPBench challenges the community to design solvers that generalize beyond synthetic assumptions and adapt to real-world uncertainty.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

RECALL: Library-Like Behavior In Language Models is Enhanced by Self-Referencing Causal Cycles

We introduce the concept of the self-referencing causal cycle (abbreviated RECALL) - a mechanism that enables large language models (LLMs) to bypass the limitations of unidirectional causality, which underlies a phenomenon known as the reversal curse. When an LLM is prompted with sequential data, it often fails to recall preceding context. For example, when we ask an LLM to recall the line preceding "O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave" in the U.S. National Anthem, it often fails to correctly return "Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there" - this is due to the reversal curse. It occurs because language models such as ChatGPT and Llama generate text based on preceding tokens, requiring facts to be learned and reproduced in a consistent token order. While the reversal curse is often viewed as a limitation, we offer evidence of an alternative view: it is not always an obstacle in practice. We find that RECALL is driven by what we designate as cycle tokens - sequences that connect different parts of the training data, enabling recall of preceding tokens from succeeding ones. Through rigorous probabilistic formalization and controlled experiments, we demonstrate how the cycles they induce influence a model's ability to reproduce information. To facilitate reproducibility, we provide our code and experimental details at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/remember-B0B8/.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

A Decade of Deep Learning: A Survey on The Magnificent Seven

Deep learning has fundamentally reshaped the landscape of artificial intelligence over the past decade, enabling remarkable achievements across diverse domains. At the heart of these developments lie multi-layered neural network architectures that excel at automatic feature extraction, leading to significant improvements in machine learning tasks. To demystify these advances and offer accessible guidance, we present a comprehensive overview of the most influential deep learning algorithms selected through a broad-based survey of the field. Our discussion centers on pivotal architectures, including Residual Networks, Transformers, Generative Adversarial Networks, Variational Autoencoders, Graph Neural Networks, Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training, and Diffusion models. We detail their historical context, highlight their mathematical foundations and algorithmic principles, and examine subsequent variants, extensions, and practical considerations such as training methodologies, normalization techniques, and learning rate schedules. Beyond historical and technical insights, we also address their applications, challenges, and potential research directions. This survey aims to serve as a practical manual for both newcomers seeking an entry point into cutting-edge deep learning methods and experienced researchers transitioning into this rapidly evolving domain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Self-Guiding Exploration for Combinatorial Problems

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become pivotal in addressing reasoning tasks across diverse domains, including arithmetic, commonsense, and symbolic reasoning. They utilize prompting techniques such as Exploration-of-Thought, Decomposition, and Refinement to effectively navigate and solve intricate tasks. Despite these advancements, the application of LLMs to Combinatorial Problems (CPs), known for their NP-hardness and critical roles in logistics and resource management remains underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce a novel prompting strategy: Self-Guiding Exploration (SGE), designed to enhance the performance of solving CPs. SGE operates autonomously, generating multiple thought trajectories for each CP task. It then breaks these trajectories down into actionable subtasks, executes them sequentially, and refines the results to ensure optimal outcomes. We present our research as the first to apply LLMs to a broad range of CPs and demonstrate that SGE outperforms existing prompting strategies by over 27.84% in CP optimization performance. Additionally, SGE achieves a 2.46% higher accuracy over the best existing results in other reasoning tasks (arithmetic, commonsense, and symbolic).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Reinforcement Learning for Solving Stochastic Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows

This paper introduces a reinforcement learning approach to optimize the Stochastic Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (SVRP), focusing on reducing travel costs in goods delivery. We develop a novel SVRP formulation that accounts for uncertain travel costs and demands, alongside specific customer time windows. An attention-based neural network trained through reinforcement learning is employed to minimize routing costs. Our approach addresses a gap in SVRP research, which traditionally relies on heuristic methods, by leveraging machine learning. The model outperforms the Ant-Colony Optimization algorithm, achieving a 1.73% reduction in travel costs. It uniquely integrates external information, demonstrating robustness in diverse environments, making it a valuable benchmark for future SVRP studies and industry application.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Reinforcement Learning for Solving Stochastic Vehicle Routing Problem

This study addresses a gap in the utilization of Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques in solving the Stochastic Vehicle Routing Problem (SVRP) that involves the challenging task of optimizing vehicle routes under uncertain conditions. We propose a novel end-to-end framework that comprehensively addresses the key sources of stochasticity in SVRP and utilizes an RL agent with a simple yet effective architecture and a tailored training method. Through comparative analysis, our proposed model demonstrates superior performance compared to a widely adopted state-of-the-art metaheuristic, achieving a significant 3.43% reduction in travel costs. Furthermore, the model exhibits robustness across diverse SVRP settings, highlighting its adaptability and ability to learn optimal routing strategies in varying environments. The publicly available implementation of our framework serves as a valuable resource for future research endeavors aimed at advancing RL-based solutions for SVRP.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

AI for Porosity and Permeability Prediction from Geologic Core X-Ray Micro-Tomography

Geologic cores are rock samples that are extracted from deep under the ground during the well drilling process. They are used for petroleum reservoirs' performance characterization. Traditionally, physical studies of cores are carried out by the means of manual time-consuming experiments. With the development of deep learning, scientists actively started working on developing machine-learning-based approaches to identify physical properties without any manual experiments. Several previous works used machine learning to determine the porosity and permeability of the rocks, but either method was inaccurate or computationally expensive. We are proposing to use self-supervised pretraining of the very small CNN-transformer-based model to predict the physical properties of the rocks with high accuracy in a time-efficient manner. We show that this technique prevents overfitting even for extremely small datasets. Github: https://github.com/Shahbozjon/porosity-and-permeability-prediction

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning to generalize Dispatching rules on the Job Shop Scheduling

This paper introduces a Reinforcement Learning approach to better generalize heuristic dispatching rules on the Job-shop Scheduling Problem (JSP). Current models on the JSP do not focus on generalization, although, as we show in this work, this is key to learning better heuristics on the problem. A well-known technique to improve generalization is to learn on increasingly complex instances using Curriculum Learning (CL). However, as many works in the literature indicate, this technique might suffer from catastrophic forgetting when transferring the learned skills between different problem sizes. To address this issue, we introduce a novel Adversarial Curriculum Learning (ACL) strategy, which dynamically adjusts the difficulty level during the learning process to revisit the worst-performing instances. This work also presents a deep learning model to solve the JSP, which is equivariant w.r.t. the job definition and size-agnostic. Conducted experiments on Taillard's and Demirkol's instances show that the presented approach significantly improves the current state-of-the-art models on the JSP. It reduces the average optimality gap from 19.35\% to 10.46\% on Taillard's instances and from 38.43\% to 18.85\% on Demirkol's instances. Our implementation is available online.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Robust Reinforcement Learning on Graphs for Logistics optimization

Logistics optimization nowadays is becoming one of the hottest areas in the AI community. In the past year, significant advancements in the domain were achieved by representing the problem in a form of graph. Another promising area of research was to apply reinforcement learning algorithms to the above task. In our work, we made advantage of using both approaches and apply reinforcement learning on a graph. To do that, we have analyzed the most recent results in both fields and selected SOTA algorithms both from graph neural networks and reinforcement learning. Then, we combined selected models on the problem of AMOD systems optimization for the transportation network of New York city. Our team compared three algorithms - GAT, Pro-CNN and PTDNet - to bring to the fore the important nodes on a graph representation. Finally, we achieved SOTA results on AMOD systems optimization problem employing PTDNet with GNN and training them in reinforcement fashion. Keywords: Graph Neural Network (GNN), Logistics optimization, Reinforcement Learning

cs.LG↗