arXiv subjects

Zbigniew Palmowski

Publications and source records attributed to Zbigniew Palmowski.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Fluctuation identities for omega-killed Markov additive processes and dividend problem

In this paper we solve the exit problems for an one-sided Markov additive process (MAP) which is exponentially killed with a bivariate killing intensity $ω(\cdot,\cdot)$ dependent on the present level of the process and the present state of the environment. Moreover, we analyze respective resolvents. All identities are given in terms of new generalizations of classical scale matrices for the MAP. We also remark on a number of applications of the obtained identities to (controlled) insurance risk processes. In particular, we show that our results can be applied to the so-called Omega model, where bankruptcy occurs at rate $ω(\cdot,\cdot)$ when the surplus process becomes negative. Finally, we consider the Markov modulated Brownian motion (MMBM) and present the results for the particular choice of piecewise intensity function $ω(\cdot,\cdot)$.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Extremes of Multi-type Branching Random Walks: Heaviest Tail Wins

We consider a branching random walk on a multi($Q$)-type, supercritical Galton-Watson tree which satisfies Kesten-Stigum condition. We assume that the displacements associated with the particles of type $Q$ have regularly varying tails of index $α$, while the other types of particles have lighter tails than that of particles of type $Q$. In this article, we derive the weak limit of the sequence of point processes associated with the positions of the particles in the $n^{th}$ generation. We verify that the limiting point process is a randomly scaled scale-decorated Poisson point process (SScDPPP) using the tools developed in \cite{bhattacharya:hazra:roy:2016}. As a consequence, we shall obtain the asymptotic distribution of the position of the rightmost particle in the $n^{th}$ generation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Optimal portfolio selection in an Itô-Markov additive market

We study a portfolio selection problem in a continuous-time Itô-Markov additive market with prices of financial assets described by Markov additive processes which combine Lévy processes and regime switching models. Thus the model takes into account two sources of risk: the jump diffusion risk and the regime switching risk. For this reason the market is incomplete. We complete the market by enlarging it with the use of a set of Markovian jump securities, Markovian power-jump securities and impulse regime switching securities. Moreover, we give conditions under which the market is asymptotic-arbitrage-free. We solve the portfolio selection problem in the Itô-Markov additive market for the power utility and the logarithmic utility.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2018

Valuation of contingent convertible catastrophe bonds - the case for equity conversion

Within the context of the banking-related literature on contingent convertible bonds, we comprehensively formalise the design and features of a relatively new type of insurance-linked security, called a contingent convertible catastrophe bond (CocoCat). We begin with a discussion of its design and compare its relative merits to catastrophe bonds and catastrophe-equity puts. Subsequently, we derive analytical valuation formulae for index-linked CocoCats under the assumption of independence between natural catastrophe and financial markets risks. We model natural catastrophe losses by a time-inhomogeneous compound Poisson process, with the interest-rate process governed by the Longstaff model. By using an exponential change of measure on the loss process, as well as a Girsanov-like transformation to synthetically remove the correlation between the share and interest-rate processes, we obtain these analytical formulae. Using selected parameter values in line with earlier research, we empirically analyse our valuation formulae for index-linked CocoCats. An analysis of the results reveals that the CocoCat prices are most sensitive to changing interest-rates, conversion fractions and the threshold levels defining the trigger times.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2018

Optimal dividend payments for a two-dimensional insurance risk process

We consider a two-dimensional optimal dividend problem in the context of two branches of an insurance company with compound Poisson surplus processes dividing claims and premia in some specified proportions. We solve the stochastic control problem of maximizing expected cumulative discounted dividend payments (among all admissible dividend strategies) until ruin of at least one company. We prove that the value function is the smallest viscosity supersolution of the respective Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and we describe the optimal strategy. We analize some numerical examples.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

The exact asymptotics for hitting probability of a remote orthant by a multivariate Lévy process: the Cramér case

For a multivariate Lévy process satisfying the Cramér moment condition and having a drift vector with at least one negative component, we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of ever hitting the positive orthant that is being translated to infinity along a fixed vector with positive components. This problem is motivated by the multivariate ruin problem introduced in F. Avram et al. (2008) in the two-dimensional case. Our solution relies on the analysis from Y. Pan and K. Borovkov (2017) for multivariate random walks and an appropriate time discretization.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Fair valuation of Lévy-type drawdown-drawup contracts with general insured and penalty functions

In this paper, we analyse some equity-linked contracts that are related to drawdown and drawup events based on assets governed by a geometric spectrally negative Lévy process. Drawdown and drawup refer to the differences between the historical maximum and minimum of the asset price and its current value, respectively. We consider four contracts. In the first contract, a protection buyer pays a premium with a constant intensity $p$ until the drawdown of fixed size occurs. In return, he/she receives a certain insured amount at the drawdown epoch, which depends on the drawdown level at that moment. Next, the insurance contract may expire earlier if a certain fixed drawup event occurs prior to the fixed drawdown. The last two contracts are extensions of the previous ones but with an additional cancellable feature that allows the investor to terminate the contracts earlier. In these cases, a fee for early stopping depends on the drawdown level at the stopping epoch. In this work, we focus on two problems: calculating the fair premium $p$ for basic contracts and finding the optimal stopping rule for the polices with a cancellable feature. To do this, we use a fluctuation theory of Lévy processes and rely on a theory of optimal stopping.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2017

Quickest drift change detection in Lévy-type force of mortality model

In this paper we give solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a Lévy process consisting of both a continuous Gaussian part and a jump component. We consider here Bayesian framework with an exponential a priori distribution of the change point using an optimality criterion based on a probability of false alarm and an expected delay of the detection. Our approach is based on the optimal stopping theory and solving some boundary value problem. Paper is supplemented by an extensive numerical analysis related with the construction of the Generalized Shiryaev-Roberts statistics. In particular, we apply this method (after appropriate calibration) to analyse Polish life tables and to model the force of mortality in this population with a drift changing in time.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Number of claims and ruin time for a refracted risk process

In this paper, we consider a classical risk model refracted at given level. We give an explicit expression for the joint density of the ruin time and the cumulative number of claims counted up to ruin time. The proof is based on solving some integro-differential equations and employing the Lagrange's Expansion Theorem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Discounted Penalty Function at Parisian Ruin for Lévy Insurance Risk Process

In the setting of a Lévy insurance risk process, we present some results regarding the Parisian ruin problem which concerns the occurrence of an excursion below zero of duration bigger than a given threshold $r$. First, we give the joint Laplace transform of ruin-time and ruin-position (possibly killed at the first-passage time above a fixed level $b$), which generalises known results concerning Parisian ruin. This identity can be used to compute the expected discounted penalty function via Laplace inversion. Second, we obtain the $q$-potential measure of the process killed at Parisian ruin. The results have semi-explicit expressions in terms of the $q$-scale function and the distribution of the Lévy process.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Pricing insurance drawdown-type contracts with underlying Lévy assets

In this paper we consider some insurance policies related to drawdown and drawup events of log-returns for an underlying asset modeled by a spectrally negative geometric Lévy process. We consider four contracts, three of which were introduced in Zhang et al. (2013) for a geometric Brownian motion. The first one is an insurance contract where the protection buyer pays a constant premium until the drawdown of fixed size of log-returns occurs. In return he/she receives a certain insured amount at the drawdown epoch. The next insurance contract provides protection from any specified drawdown with a drawup contingency. This contract expires early if a certain fixed drawup event occurs prior to the fixed drawdown. The last two contracts are extensions of the previous ones by an additional cancellation feature which allows the investor to terminate the contract earlier. We focus on two problems: calculating the fair premium $p$ for the basic contracts and identifying the optimal stopping rule for the policies with the cancellation feature. To do this we solve some two-sided exit problems related to drawdown and drawup of spectrally negative Lévy processes, which is of independent mathematical interest. We also heavily rely on the theory of optimal stopping.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2017

A note on chaotic and predictable representations for Itô-Markov additive processes

IIn this paper we provide predictable and chaotic representations for Itô-Markov additive processes $X$. Such a process is governed by a finite-state CTMC $J$ which allows one to modify the parameters of the Itô-jump process (in so-called regime switching manner). In addition, the transition of $J$ triggers the jump of $X$ distributed depending on the states of $J$ just prior to the transition. This family of processes includes Markov modulated Itô-Lévy processes and Markov additive processes. The derived chaotic representation of a square-integrable random variable is given as a sum of stochastic integrals with respect to some explicitly constructed orthogonal martingales. We identify the predictable representation of a square-integrable martingale as a sum of stochastic integrals of predictable processes with respect to Brownian motion and power-jumps martingales related to all the jumps appearing in the model. This result generalizes the seminal result of Jacod-Yor and is of importance in financial mathematics. The derived representation then allows one to enlarge the incomplete market by a series of power-jump assets and to price all market-derivatives.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Parisian ruin for the dual risk process in discrete-time

In this paper we consider the Parisian ruin probabilities for the dual risk model in a discrete-time setting. By exploiting the strong Markov property of the risk process we derive a recursive expression for the fnite-time Parisian ruin probability, in terms of classic discrete-time dual ruin probabilities. Moreover, we obtain an explicit expression for the corresponding infnite-time Parisian ruin probability as a limiting case. In order to obtain more analytic results, we employ a conditioning argument and derive a new expression for the classic infinite-time ruin probability in the dual risk model and hence, an alternative form of the infnite-time Parisian ruin probability. Finally, we explore some interesting special cases, including the Binomial/Geometric model, and obtain a simple expression for the Parisian ruin probability of the Gambler's ruin problem.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Matrix geometric approach for random walks: stability condition and equilibrium distribution

In this paper, we analyse a sub-class of two-dimensional homogeneous nearest neighbour (simple) random walk restricted on the lattice using the matrix geometric approach. In particular, we first present an alternative approach for the calculation of the stability condition, extending the result of Neuts drift conditions [30] and connecting it with the result of Fayolle et al. which is based on Lyapunov functions [13]. Furthermore, we consider the sub-class of random walks with equilibrium distributions given as series of product-forms and, for this class of random walks, we calculate the eigenvalues and the corresponding eigenvectors of the infinite matrix $\mathbf{R}$ appearing in the matrix geometric approach. This result is obtained by connecting and extending three existing approaches available for such an analysis: the matrix geometric approach, the compensation approach and the boundary value problem method. In this paper, we also present the spectral properties of the infinite matrix $\mathbf{R}$.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Fluctuations of Omega-killed spectrally negative Lévy processes

In this paper we solve the exit problems for (reflected) spectrally negative Lévy processes, which are exponentially killed with a killing intensity dependent on the present state of the process and analyze respective resolvents. All identities are given in terms of new generalizations of scale functions. For the particular cases $ω(x)=q$ and $ω(x)=q \mathbf{1}_{(a,b)}(x)$, we obtain results for the classical exit problems and the Laplace transforms of the occupation times in a given interval, until first passage times, respectively. Our results can also be applied to find the bankruptcy probability in the so-called Omega model, where bankruptcy occurs at rate $ω(x)$ when the Lévy surplus process is at level $x<0$. Finally, we apply the these results to obtain some exit identities for a spectrally positive self-similar Markov processes. The main method throughout all the proofs relies on the classical fluctuation identities for Lévy processes, the Markov property and some basic properties of a Poisson process.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Discrete time ruin probability with Parisian delay

In this paper we evaluate the probability of the discrete time Parisian ruin that occurs when surplus process stays below or at zero at least for some fixed duration of time $d>0$. We identify expressions for the ruin probabilities within finite and infinite-time horizon. We also find their light and heavy-tailed asymptotics when initial reserves approach infinity. Finally, we calculate these probabilities for a few explicit examples.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Two-dimensional ruin probability for subexponential claim size

We analyse the asymptotics of ruin probabilities of two insurance companies (or two branches of the same company) that divide between them both claims and premia in some specified proportions when the initial reserves of both companies tend to infinity and generic claim size is subexponential.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Optimizing expected utility of dividend payments for a Cramér-Lundberg risk proces

We consider the problem of maximizing the discounted utility of dividend payments of an insurance company whose reserves are modeled as a classical Cramér-Lundberg risk process. We investigate this optimization problem under the constraint that dividend rate is bounded. We prove that the value function fulfills the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and we identify the optimal dividend strategy.

q-fin.CP↗