arXiv subjects

Zexu Sun

Publications and source records attributed to Zexu Sun.

23 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Benchmarking for Deep Uplift Modeling in Online Marketing

Online marketing is critical for many industrial platforms and business applications, aiming to increase user engagement and platform revenue by identifying corresponding delivery-sensitive groups for specific incentives, such as coupons and bonuses. As the scale and complexity of features in industrial scenarios increase, deep uplift modeling (DUM) as a promising technique has attracted increased research from academia and industry, resulting in various predictive models. However, current DUM still lacks some standardized benchmarks and unified evaluation protocols, which limit the reproducibility of experimental results in existing studies and the practical value and potential impact in this direction. In this paper, we provide an open benchmark for DUM and present comparison results of existing models in a reproducible and uniform manner. To this end, we conduct extensive experiments on two representative industrial datasets with different preprocessing settings to re-evaluate 13 existing models. Surprisingly, our experimental results show that the most recent work differs less than expected from traditional work in many cases. In addition, our experiments also reveal the limitations of DUM in generalization, especially for different preprocessing and test distributions. Our benchmarking work allows researchers to evaluate the performance of new models quickly but also reasonably demonstrates fair comparison results with existing models. It also gives practitioners valuable insights into often overlooked considerations when deploying DUM. We will make this benchmarking library, evaluation protocol, and experimental setup available on GitHub.

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arXiv2024

Revisiting Counterfactual Regression through the Lens of Gromov-Wasserstein Information Bottleneck

As a promising individualized treatment effect (ITE) estimation method, counterfactual regression (CFR) maps individuals' covariates to a latent space and predicts their counterfactual outcomes. However, the selection bias between control and treatment groups often imbalances the two groups' latent distributions and negatively impacts this method's performance. In this study, we revisit counterfactual regression through the lens of information bottleneck and propose a novel learning paradigm called Gromov-Wasserstein information bottleneck (GWIB). In this paradigm, we learn CFR by maximizing the mutual information between covariates' latent representations and outcomes while penalizing the kernelized mutual information between the latent representations and the covariates. We demonstrate that the upper bound of the penalty term can be implemented as a new regularizer consisting of $i)$ the fused Gromov-Wasserstein distance between the latent representations of different groups and $ii)$ the gap between the transport cost generated by the model and the cross-group Gromov-Wasserstein distance between the latent representations and the covariates. GWIB effectively learns the CFR model through alternating optimization, suppressing selection bias while avoiding trivial latent distributions. Experiments on ITE estimation tasks show that GWIB consistently outperforms state-of-the-art CFR methods. To promote the research community, we release our project at https://github.com/peteryang1031/Causal-GWIB.

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arXiv2024

M$^3$TN: Multi-gate Mixture-of-Experts based Multi-valued Treatment Network for Uplift Modeling

Uplift modeling is a technique used to predict the effect of a treatment (e.g., discounts) on an individual's response. Although several methods have been proposed for multi-valued treatment, they are extended from binary treatment methods. There are still some limitations. Firstly, existing methods calculate uplift based on predicted responses, which may not guarantee a consistent uplift distribution between treatment and control groups. Moreover, this may cause cumulative errors for multi-valued treatment. Secondly, the model parameters become numerous with many prediction heads, leading to reduced efficiency. To address these issues, we propose a novel \underline{M}ulti-gate \underline{M}ixture-of-Experts based \underline{M}ulti-valued \underline{T}reatment \underline{N}etwork (M$^3$TN). M$^3$TN consists of two components: 1) a feature representation module with Multi-gate Mixture-of-Experts to improve the efficiency; 2) a reparameterization module by modeling uplift explicitly to improve the effectiveness. We also conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our M$^3$TN.

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arXiv2023

Robustness-enhanced Uplift Modeling with Adversarial Feature Desensitization

Uplift modeling has shown very promising results in online marketing. However, most existing works are prone to the robustness challenge in some practical applications. In this paper, we first present a possible explanation for the above phenomenon. We verify that there is a feature sensitivity problem in online marketing using different real-world datasets, where the perturbation of some key features will seriously affect the performance of the uplift model and even cause the opposite trend. To solve the above problem, we propose a novel robustness-enhanced uplift modeling framework with adversarial feature desensitization (RUAD). Specifically, our RUAD can more effectively alleviate the feature sensitivity of the uplift model through two customized modules, including a feature selection module with joint multi-label modeling to identify a key subset from the input features and an adversarial feature desensitization module using adversarial training and soft interpolation operations to enhance the robustness of the model against this selected subset of features. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on a public dataset and a real product dataset to verify the effectiveness of our RUAD in online marketing. In addition, we also demonstrate the robustness of our RUAD to the feature sensitivity, as well as the compatibility with different uplift models.

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arXiv2023

Offline Imitation Learning with Variational Counterfactual Reasoning

In offline imitation learning (IL), an agent aims to learn an optimal expert behavior policy without additional online environment interactions. However, in many real-world scenarios, such as robotics manipulation, the offline dataset is collected from suboptimal behaviors without rewards. Due to the scarce expert data, the agents usually suffer from simply memorizing poor trajectories and are vulnerable to variations in the environments, lacking the capability of generalizing to new environments. To automatically generate high-quality expert data and improve the generalization ability of the agent, we propose a framework named \underline{O}ffline \underline{I}mitation \underline{L}earning with \underline{C}ounterfactual data \underline{A}ugmentation (OILCA) by doing counterfactual inference. In particular, we leverage identifiable variational autoencoder to generate \textit{counterfactual} samples for expert data augmentation. We theoretically analyze the influence of the generated expert data and the improvement of generalization. Moreover, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms various baselines on both \textsc{DeepMind Control Suite} benchmark for in-distribution performance and \textsc{CausalWorld} benchmark for out-of-distribution generalization. Our code is available at \url{https://github.com/ZexuSun/OILCA-NeurIPS23}.

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