arXiv subjects

Zhang Kun

Publications and source records attributed to Zhang Kun.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Uncertainty-Aware Simulation-Based Inference for Operations Research with Large Language Models

Deploying large language models (LLMs) for operations research (OR) tasks remains challenging because correctness depends on a coherent modeling process, not merely a correct final answer. Standard autoregressive generation operates on a myopic policy, which sometimes fails to anticipate whether a partial formulation can be validly extended into a globally consistent optimization model. Consequently, locally plausible steps may propagate into catastrophic downstream formulation or solver code errors. To address this, we propose an uncertainty-aware, training-free inference framework for OR mathematical modeling. Without updating model parameters, our method evaluates intermediate candidate steps using short lookahead simulations to quantify downstream predictive uncertainty or probability concentration. Candidates that demonstrate a higher likelihood of yielding coherent mathematical formulations are then dynamically selected via importance resampling. Empirical evaluations across multiple OR benchmarks (including NL4OPT, MAMO, and IndustryOR) demonstrate that our framework consistently outperforms both standard and low-temperature baselines, establishing an efficient, training-free paradigm for reliable OR formulation generation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Derivative-Free Optimization via Finite Difference Approximation: An Experimental Study

Derivative-free optimization (DFO) is vital in solving complex optimization problems where only noisy function evaluations are available through an oracle. Within this domain, DFO via finite difference (FD) approximation has emerged as a powerful method. Two classical approaches are the Kiefer-Wolfowitz (KW) and simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithms, which estimate gradients using just two samples in each iteration to conserve samples. However, this approach yields imprecise gradient estimators, necessitating diminishing step sizes to ensure convergence, often resulting in slow optimization progress. In contrast, FD estimators constructed from batch samples approximate gradients more accurately. While gradient descent algorithms using batch-based FD estimators achieve more precise results in each iteration, they require more samples and permit fewer iterations. This raises a fundamental question: which approach is more effective -- KW-style methods or DFO with batch-based FD estimators? This paper conducts a comprehensive experimental comparison among these approaches, examining the fundamental trade-off between gradient estimation accuracy and iteration steps. Through extensive experiments in both low-dimensional and high-dimensional settings, we demonstrate a surprising finding: when an efficient batch-based FD estimator is applied, its corresponding gradient descent algorithm generally shows better performance compared to classical KW and SPSA algorithms in our tested scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

An Upper Confidence Bound Approach to Estimating the Maximum Mean

Estimating the maximum mean finds a variety of applications in practice. In this paper, we study estimation of the maximum mean using an upper confidence bound (UCB) approach where the sampling budget is adaptively allocated to one of the systems. We study in depth the existing grand average (GA) estimator, and propose a new largest-size average (LSA) estimator. Specifically, we establish statistical guarantees, including strong consistency, asymptotic mean squared errors, and central limit theorems (CLTs) for both estimators, which are new to the literature. We show that LSA is preferable over GA, as the bias of the former decays at a rate much faster than that of the latter when sample size increases. By using the CLTs, we further construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the maximum mean, and propose a single hypothesis test for a multiple comparison problem with application to clinical trials. Statistical efficiency of the resulting point and interval estimates and the proposed single hypothesis test is demonstrated via numerical examples.

math.ST↗