arXiv subjects

Zhaonan Qu

Publications and source records attributed to Zhaonan Qu.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Tight Nonasymptotic Local Convergence of Sinkhorn-Knopp

We revisit the Sinkhorn-Knopp (SK) algorithm for the matrix scaling problem. Despite extensive literature on the global convergence of SK and its variants, its local linear convergence behavior remains less understood. We address this gap by providing the first nonasymptotic local analysis of SK that matches the rate obtained from existing asymptotic Jacobian-based arguments. We show that under certain connectivity conditions, SK is a polynomial-time algorithm for doubly stochastic matrix scaling. With the developed tools, we showcase the local suboptimality of SK and provide accelerated variants. Finally, for dense matrices, we improve the complexity of existing first-order matrix scaling algorithms from $O(\tfrac{n^{7/3}}{\varepsilon^{2/3}})$ to $O(\tfrac{n^{9/4}}{\sqrt{\varepsilon}})$.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Triply Robust Panel Estimators

This paper studies estimation of causal effects in a panel data setting. We introduce a new estimator, the Triply RObust Panel (TROP) estimator, that combines (i) a flexible model for the potential outcomes based on a low-rank factor structure on top of a two-way-fixed effect specification, with (ii) unit weights intended to upweight units similar to the treated units and (iii) time weights intended to upweight time periods close to the treated time periods. We study the performance of the estimator in a set of simulations designed to closely match several commonly studied real data sets. We find that there is substantial variation in the performance of the estimators across the settings considered. The proposed estimator outperforms two-way-fixed-effect/difference-in-differences, synthetic control, matrix completion and synthetic-difference-in-differences estimators. We investigate what features of the data generating process lead to this performance, and assess the relative importance of the three components of the proposed estimator. We have two recommendations. Our preferred strategy is that researchers use simulations closely matched to the data they are interested in, along the lines discussed in this paper, to investigate which estimators work well in their particular setting. A simpler approach is to use more robust estimators such as synthetic difference-in-differences or the new triply robust panel estimator which we find to substantially outperform two-way fixed effect estimators in many empirically relevant settings.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Structured Lasso for convex nonparametric least squares: An application to Swedish electricity distribution networks

We study the problem of variable selection in convex nonparametric least squares (CNLS). Whereas the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) is a popular technique for least squares, its variable selection performance is unknown in CNLS problems. In this work, we investigate the performance of the Lasso estimator and find out it is usually unable to select variables efficiently. Exploiting the unique structure of the subgradients in CNLS, we develop a structured Lasso method by combining $\ell_1$-norm and $\ell_{\infty}$-norm. The relaxed version of the structured Lasso is proposed for achieving model sparsity and predictive performance simultaneously, where we can control the two effects--variable selection and model shrinkage--using separate tuning parameters. A Monte Carlo study is implemented to verify the finite sample performance of the proposed approaches. We also use real data from Swedish electricity distribution networks to illustrate the effects of the proposed variable selection techniques. The results from the simulation and application confirm that the proposed structured Lasso performs favorably, generally leading to sparser and more accurate predictive models, relative to the conventional Lasso methods in the literature.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Handling Sparse Non-negative Data in Finance

We show that Poisson regression, though often recommended over log-linear regression for modeling count and other non-negative variables in finance and economics, can be far from optimal when heteroskedasticity and sparsity -- two common features of such data -- are both present. We propose a general class of moment estimators, encompassing Poisson regression, that balances the bias-variance trade-off under these conditions. A simple cross-validation procedure selects the optimal estimator. Numerical simulations and applications to corporate finance data reveal that the best choice varies substantially across settings and often departs from Poisson regression, underscoring the need for a more flexible estimation framework.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

On Sinkhorn's Algorithm and Choice Modeling

For a broad class of models widely used in practice for choice and ranking data based on Luce's choice axiom, including the Bradley--Terry--Luce and Plackett--Luce models, we show that the associated maximum likelihood estimation problems are equivalent to a classic matrix balancing problem with target row and column sums. This perspective opens doors between two seemingly unrelated research areas, and allows us to unify existing algorithms in the choice modeling literature as special instances or analogs of Sinkhorn's celebrated algorithm for matrix balancing. We draw inspirations from these connections and resolve some open problems on the study of Sinkhorn's algorithm. We establish the global linear convergence of Sinkhorn's algorithm for non-negative matrices whenever finite scaling matrices exist, and characterize its linear convergence rate in terms of the algebraic connectivity of a weighted bipartite graph. We further derive the sharp asymptotic rate of linear convergence, which generalizes a classic result of Knight (2008). To our knowledge, these are the first quantitative linear convergence results for Sinkhorn's algorithm for general non-negative matrices and positive marginals. Our results highlight the importance of connectivity and orthogonality structures in matrix balancing and Sinkhorn's algorithm, which could be of independent interest. More broadly, the connections we establish in this paper between matrix balancing and choice modeling could also help motivate further transmission of ideas and lead to interesting results in both disciplines.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Distributionally Robust Instrumental Variables Estimation

Instrumental variables (IV) estimation is a fundamental method in econometrics and statistics for estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, challenges such as untestable model assumptions and poor finite sample properties have undermined its reliability in practice. Viewing common issues in IV estimation as distributional uncertainties, we propose DRIVE, a distributionally robust IV estimation method. We show that DRIVE minimizes a square root variant of ridge regularized two stage least squares (TSLS) objective when the ambiguity set is based on a Wasserstein distance. In addition, we develop a novel asymptotic theory for this estimator, showing that it achieves consistency without requiring the regularization parameter to vanish. This novel property ensures that the estimator is robust to distributional uncertainties that persist in large samples. We further derive the asymptotic distribution of Wasserstein DRIVE and propose data-driven procedures to select the regularization parameter based on theoretical results. Simulation studies demonstrate the superior finite sample performance of Wasserstein DRIVE in terms of estimation error and out-of-sample prediction. Due to its regularization and robustness properties, Wasserstein DRIVE presents an appealing option when the practitioner is uncertain about model assumptions or distributional shifts in data.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Scalable Approximate Optimal Diagonal Preconditioning

We consider the problem of finding the optimal diagonal preconditioner for a positive definite matrix. Although this problem has been shown to be solvable and various methods have been proposed, none of the existing approaches are scalable to matrices of large dimension, or when access is limited to black-box matrix-vector products, thereby significantly limiting their practical application. In view of these challenges, we propose practical algorithms applicable to finding approximate optimal diagonal preconditioners of large sparse systems. Our approach is based on the idea of dimension reduction, and combines techniques from semi-definite programming (SDP), random projection, semi-infinite programming (SIP), and column generation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our method scales to sparse matrices of size greater than $10^7$. Notably, our approach is efficient and implementable using only black-box matrix-vector product operations, making it highly practical for a wide variety of applications.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

Computationally Efficient Estimation of Large Probit Models

Probit models are useful for modeling correlated discrete responses in many disciplines, including consumer choice data in economics and marketing. However, the Gaussian latent variable feature of probit models coupled with identification constraints pose significant computational challenges for its estimation and inference, especially when the dimension of the discrete response variable is large. In this paper, we propose a computationally efficient Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating large probit models. Our work is distinct from existing methods in two important aspects. First, instead of simulation or sampling methods, we apply and customize expectation propagation (EP), a deterministic method originally proposed for approximate Bayesian inference, to estimate moments of the truncated multivariate normal (TMVN) in the E (expectation) step. Second, we take advantage of a symmetric identification condition to transform the constrained optimization problem in the M (maximization) step into a one-dimensional problem, which is solved efficiently using Newton's method instead of off-the-shelf solvers. Our method enables the analysis of correlated choice data in the presence of more than 100 alternatives, which is a reasonable size in modern applications, such as online shopping and booking platforms, but has been difficult in practice with probit models. We apply our probit estimation method to study ordering effects in hotel search results on Expedia's online booking platform.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Inferring Dynamic Networks from Marginals with Iterative Proportional Fitting

A common network inference problem, arising from real-world data constraints, is how to infer a dynamic network from its time-aggregated adjacency matrix and time-varying marginals (i.e., row and column sums). Prior approaches to this problem have repurposed the classic iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure, also known as Sinkhorn's algorithm, with promising empirical results. However, the statistical foundation for using IPF has not been well understood: under what settings does IPF provide principled estimation of a dynamic network from its marginals, and how well does it estimate the network? In this work, we establish such a setting, by identifying a generative network model whose maximum likelihood estimates are recovered by IPF. Our model both reveals implicit assumptions on the use of IPF in such settings and enables new analyses, such as structure-dependent error bounds on IPF's parameter estimates. When IPF fails to converge on sparse network data, we introduce a principled algorithm that guarantees IPF converges under minimal changes to the network structure. Finally, we conduct experiments with synthetic and real-world data, which demonstrate the practical value of our theoretical and algorithmic contributions.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Semiparametric Estimation of Treatment Effects in Observational Studies with Heterogeneous Partial Interference

In many observational studies in social science and medicine, subjects or units are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) and resulting in interference. To enable feasible estimation and inference, many previous works assume exchangeability of interfering units (neighbors). However, in many applications with distinctive units, interference is heterogeneous and needs to be modeled explicitly. In this paper, we focus on the partial interference setting, and only restrict units to be exchangeable conditional on observable characteristics. Under this framework, we propose generalized augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimators for general causal estimands that include heterogeneous direct and spillover effects. We show that they are semiparametric efficient and robust to heterogeneous interference as well as model misspecifications. We apply our methods to the Add Health dataset to study the direct effects of alcohol consumption on academic performance and the spillover effects of parental incarceration on adolescent well-being.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

A Unified Linear Speedup Analysis of Federated Averaging and Nesterov FedAvg

Federated learning (FL) learns a model jointly from a set of participating devices without sharing each other's privately held data. The characteristics of non-i.i.d. data across the network, low device participation, high communication costs, and the mandate that data remain private bring challenges in understanding the convergence of FL algorithms, particularly regarding how convergence scales with the number of participating devices. In this paper, we focus on Federated Averaging (FedAvg), one of the most popular and effective FL algorithms in use today, as well as its Nesterov accelerated variant, and conduct a systematic study of how their convergence scale with the number of participating devices under non-i.i.d. data and partial participation in convex settings. We provide a unified analysis that establishes convergence guarantees for FedAvg under strongly convex, convex, and overparameterized strongly convex problems. We show that FedAvg enjoys linear speedup in each case, although with different convergence rates and communication efficiencies. For strongly convex and convex problems, we also characterize the corresponding convergence rates for the Nesterov accelerated FedAvg algorithm, which are the first linear speedup guarantees for momentum variants of FedAvg in convex settings. Empirical studies of the algorithms in various settings have supported our theoretical results.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Optimal Diagonal Preconditioning

Preconditioning has long been a staple technique in optimization, often applied to reduce the condition number of a matrix and speed up the convergence of algorithms. Although there are many popular preconditioning techniques in practice, most lack guarantees on reductions in condition number. Moreover, the degree to which we can improve over existing heuristic preconditioners remains an important practical question. In this paper, we study the problem of optimal diagonal preconditioning that achieves maximal reduction in the condition number of any full-rank matrix by scaling its rows and/or columns. We first reformulate the problem as a quasi-convex problem and provide a simple algorithm based on bisection. Then we develop an interior point algorithm with $O(\log(1/ε))$ iteration complexity, where each iteration consists of a Newton update based on the Nesterov-Todd direction. Next, we specialize to one-sided optimal diagonal preconditioning problems, and demonstrate that they can be formulated as standard dual SDP problems. We then develop efficient customized solvers and study the empirical performance of our optimal diagonal preconditioning procedures through extensive experiments on large matrices. Our findings suggest that optimal diagonal preconditioners can significantly improve upon existing heuristics-based diagonal preconditioners at reducing condition numbers and speeding up iterative methods. Moreover, our implementation of customized solvers, combined with a random row/column sampling step, can find near-optimal diagonal preconditioners for matrices up to size 200,000 in reasonable time, demonstrating their practical appeal.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Interpretable Personalization via Policy Learning with Linear Decision Boundaries

With the rise of the digital economy and an explosion of available information about consumers, effective personalization of goods and services has become a core business focus for companies to improve revenues and maintain a competitive edge. This paper studies the personalization problem through the lens of policy learning, where the goal is to learn a decision-making rule (a policy) that maps from consumer and product characteristics (features) to recommendations (actions) in order to optimize outcomes (rewards). We focus on using available historical data for offline learning with unknown data collection procedures, where a key challenge is the non-random assignment of recommendations. Moreover, in many business and medical applications, interpretability of a policy is essential. We study the class of policies with linear decision boundaries to ensure interpretability, and propose learning algorithms using tools from causal inference to address unbalanced treatments. We study several optimization schemes to solve the associated non-convex, non-smooth optimization problem, and find that a Bayesian optimization algorithm is effective. We test our algorithm with extensive simulation studies and apply it to an anonymized online marketplace customer purchase dataset, where the learned policy outputs a personalized discount recommendation based on customer and product features in order to maximize gross merchandise value (GMV) for sellers. Our learned policy improves upon the platform's baseline by 88.2\% in net sales revenue, while also providing informative insights on which features are important for the decision-making process. Our findings suggest that our proposed policy learning framework using tools from causal inference and Bayesian optimization provides a promising practical approach to interpretable personalization across a wide range of applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Ensemble Methods for Causal Effects in Panel Data Settings

This paper studies a panel data setting where the goal is to estimate causal effects of an intervention by predicting the counterfactual values of outcomes for treated units, had they not received the treatment. Several approaches have been proposed for this problem, including regression methods, synthetic control methods and matrix completion methods. This paper considers an ensemble approach, and shows that it performs better than any of the individual methods in several economic datasets. Matrix completion methods are often given the most weight by the ensemble, but this clearly depends on the setting. We argue that ensemble methods present a fruitful direction for further research in the causal panel data setting.

econ.EM↗