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Zhen Zeng

Publications and source records attributed to Zhen Zeng.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2021

Visual Time Series Forecasting: An Image-driven Approach

Time series forecasting is essential for agents to make decisions. Traditional approaches rely on statistical methods to forecast given past numeric values. In practice, end-users often rely on visualizations such as charts and plots to reason about their forecasts. Inspired by practitioners, we re-imagine the topic by creating a novel framework to produce visual forecasts, similar to the way humans intuitively do. In this work, we leverage advances in deep learning to extend the field of time series forecasting to a visual setting. We capture input data as an image and train a model to produce the subsequent image. This approach results in predicting distributions as opposed to pointwise values. We examine various synthetic and real datasets with diverse degrees of complexity. Our experiments show that visual forecasting is effective for cyclic data but somewhat less for irregular data such as stock price. Importantly, when using image-based evaluation metrics, we find the proposed visual forecasting method to outperform various numerical baselines, including ARIMA and a numerical variation of our method. We demonstrate the benefits of incorporating vision-based approaches in forecasting tasks -- both for the quality of the forecasts produced, as well as the metrics that can be used to evaluate them.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2021

Visual Time Series Forecasting: An Image-driven Approach

In this work, we address time-series forecasting as a computer vision task. We capture input data as an image and train a model to produce the subsequent image. This approach results in predicting distributions as opposed to pointwise values. To assess the robustness and quality of our approach, we examine various datasets and multiple evaluation metrics. Our experiments show that our forecasting tool is effective for cyclic data but somewhat less for irregular data such as stock prices. Importantly, when using image-based evaluation metrics, we find our method to outperform various baselines, including ARIMA, and a numerical variation of our deep learning approach.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2021

Deep Video Prediction for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is essential for decision making in many domains. In this work, we address the challenge of predicting prices evolution among multiple potentially interacting financial assets. A solution to this problem has obvious importance for governments, banks, and investors. Statistical methods such as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) are widely applied to these problems. In this paper, we propose to approach economic time series forecasting of multiple financial assets in a novel way via video prediction. Given past prices of multiple potentially interacting financial assets, we aim to predict the prices evolution in the future. Instead of treating the snapshot of prices at each time point as a vector, we spatially layout these prices in 2D as an image, such that we can harness the power of CNNs in learning a latent representation for these financial assets. Thus, the history of these prices becomes a sequence of images, and our goal becomes predicting future images. We build on a state-of-the-art video prediction method for forecasting future images. Our experiments involve the prediction task of the price evolution of nine financial assets traded in U.S. stock markets. The proposed method outperforms baselines including ARIMA, Prophet, and variations of the proposed method, demonstrating the benefits of harnessing the power of CNNs in the problem of economic time series forecasting.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2021

Probabilistic Inference in Planning for Partially Observable Long Horizon Problems

For autonomous service robots to successfully perform long horizon tasks in the real world, they must act intelligently in partially observable environments. Most Task and Motion Planning approaches assume full observability of their state space, making them ineffective in stochastic and partially observable domains that reflect the uncertainties in the real world. We propose an online planning and execution approach for performing long horizon tasks in partially observable domains. Given the robot's belief and a plan skeleton composed of symbolic actions, our approach grounds each symbolic action by inferring continuous action parameters needed to execute the plan successfully. To achieve this, we formulate the problem of joint inference of action parameters as a Hybrid Constraint Satisfaction Problem (H-CSP) and solve the H-CSP using Belief Propagation. The robot executes the resulting parameterized actions, updates its belief of the world and replans when necessary. Our approach is able to efficiently solve partially observable tasks in a realistic kitchen simulation environment. Our approach outperformed an adaptation of the state-of-the-art method across our experiments.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2021

Elephants Don't Pack Groceries: Robot Task Planning for Low Entropy Belief States

Recent advances in computational perception have significantly improved the ability of autonomous robots to perform state estimation with low entropy. Such advances motivate a reconsideration of robot decision-making under uncertainty. Current approaches to solving sequential decision-making problems model states as inhabiting the extremes of the perceptual entropy spectrum. As such, these methods are either incapable of overcoming perceptual errors or asymptotically inefficient in solving problems with low perceptual entropy. With low entropy perception in mind, we aim to explore a happier medium that balances computational efficiency with the forms of uncertainty we now observe from modern robot perception. We propose an approach for efficient task planning for goal-directed robot reasoning. Our approach combines belief space representation with the fast, goal-directed features of classical planning to efficiently plan for low entropy goal-directed reasoning tasks. We compare our approach with current classical planning and belief space planning approaches by solving low entropy goal-directed grocery packing tasks in simulation. Our approach outperforms these approaches in planning time, execution time, and task success rate in our simulation experiments. We also demonstrate our approach on a real world grocery packing task with physical robot.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2021

Estimating Oscillatory Integrals of Convolution Type in $\mathbb{R}^d$

In this paper, we prove an $L^2-L^2-L^2$ decay estimate for a trilinear oscillatory integral of convolution type in $\mathbb{R}^d,$ which recovers the earlier result of Li (2013) when $d=1.$ We discuss the sharpness of our result in the $d=2$ case. Our main hypothesis has close connections to the property of simple nondegeneracy studied by Christ, Li, Tao and Thiele (2005).

math.CA↗
arXiv2021

LVCNet: Efficient Condition-Dependent Modeling Network for Waveform Generation

In this paper, we propose a novel conditional convolution network, named location-variable convolution, to model the dependencies of the waveform sequence. Different from the use of unified convolution kernels in WaveNet to capture the dependencies of arbitrary waveform, the location-variable convolution uses convolution kernels with different coefficients to perform convolution operations on different waveform intervals, where the coefficients of kernels is predicted according to conditioning acoustic features, such as Mel-spectrograms. Based on location-variable convolutions, we design LVCNet for waveform generation, and apply it in Parallel WaveGAN to design more efficient vocoder. Experiments on the LJSpeech dataset show that our proposed model achieves a four-fold increase in synthesis speed compared to the original Parallel WaveGAN without any degradation in sound quality, which verifies the effectiveness of location-variable convolutions.

eess.AS↗
arXiv2020

MelGlow: Efficient Waveform Generative Network Based on Location-Variable Convolution

Recent neural vocoders usually use a WaveNet-like network to capture the long-term dependencies of the waveform, but a large number of parameters are required to obtain good modeling capabilities. In this paper, an efficient network, named location-variable convolution, is proposed to model the dependencies of waveforms. Different from the use of unified convolution kernels in WaveNet to capture the dependencies of arbitrary waveforms, location-variable convolutions utilizes a kernel predictor to generate multiple sets of convolution kernels based on the mel-spectrum, where each set of convolution kernels is used to perform convolution operations on the associated waveform intervals. Combining WaveGlow and location-variable convolutions, an efficient vocoder, named MelGlow, is designed. Experiments on the LJSpeech dataset show that MelGlow achieves better performance than WaveGlow at small model sizes, which verifies the effectiveness and potential optimization space of location-variable convolutions.

cs.SD↗
arXiv2020

GraphPB: Graphical Representations of Prosody Boundary in Speech Synthesis

This paper introduces a graphical representation approach of prosody boundary (GraphPB) in the task of Chinese speech synthesis, intending to parse the semantic and syntactic relationship of input sequences in a graphical domain for improving the prosody performance. The nodes of the graph embedding are formed by prosodic words, and the edges are formed by the other prosodic boundaries, namely prosodic phrase boundary (PPH) and intonation phrase boundary (IPH). Different Graph Neural Networks (GNN) like Gated Graph Neural Network (GGNN) and Graph Long Short-term Memory (G-LSTM) are utilised as graph encoders to exploit the graphical prosody boundary information. Graph-to-sequence model is proposed and formed by a graph encoder and an attentional decoder. Two techniques are proposed to embed sequential information into the graph-to-sequence text-to-speech model. The experimental results show that this proposed approach can encode the phonetic and prosody rhythm of an utterance. The mean opinion score (MOS) of these GNN models shows comparative results with the state-of-the-art sequence-to-sequence models with better performance in the aspect of prosody. This provides an alternative approach for prosody modelling in end-to-end speech synthesis.

eess.AS↗
arXiv2020

Prosody Learning Mechanism for Speech Synthesis System Without Text Length Limit

Recent neural speech synthesis systems have gradually focused on the control of prosody to improve the quality of synthesized speech, but they rarely consider the variability of prosody and the correlation between prosody and semantics together. In this paper, a prosody learning mechanism is proposed to model the prosody of speech based on TTS system, where the prosody information of speech is extracted from the melspectrum by a prosody learner and combined with the phoneme sequence to reconstruct the mel-spectrum. Meanwhile, the sematic features of text from the pre-trained language model is introduced to improve the prosody prediction results. In addition, a novel self-attention structure, named as local attention, is proposed to lift this restriction of input text length, where the relative position information of the sequence is modeled by the relative position matrices so that the position encodings is no longer needed. Experiments on English and Mandarin show that speech with more satisfactory prosody has obtained in our model. Especially in Mandarin synthesis, our proposed model outperforms baseline model with a MOS gap of 0.08, and the overall naturalness of the synthesized speech has been significantly improved.

eess.AS↗
arXiv2020

Semantic Linking Maps for Active Visual Object Search

We aim for mobile robots to function in a variety of common human environments. Such robots need to be able to reason about the locations of previously unseen target objects. Landmark objects can help this reasoning by narrowing down the search space significantly. More specifically, we can exploit background knowledge about common spatial relations between landmark and target objects. For example, seeing a table and knowing that cups can often be found on tables aids the discovery of a cup. Such correlations can be expressed as distributions over possible pairing relationships of objects. In this paper, we propose an active visual object search strategy method through our introduction of the Semantic Linking Maps (SLiM) model. SLiM simultaneously maintains the belief over a target object's location as well as landmark objects' locations, while accounting for probabilistic inter-object spatial relations. Based on SLiM, we describe a hybrid search strategy that selects the next best view pose for searching for the target object based on the maintained belief. We demonstrate the efficiency of our SLiM-based search strategy through comparative experiments in simulated environments. We further demonstrate the real-world applicability of SLiM-based search in scenarios with a Fetch mobile manipulation robot.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2020

GraphTTS: graph-to-sequence modelling in neural text-to-speech

This paper leverages the graph-to-sequence method in neural text-to-speech (GraphTTS), which maps the graph embedding of the input sequence to spectrograms. The graphical inputs consist of node and edge representations constructed from input texts. The encoding of these graphical inputs incorporates syntax information by a GNN encoder module. Besides, applying the encoder of GraphTTS as a graph auxiliary encoder (GAE) can analyse prosody information from the semantic structure of texts. This can remove the manual selection of reference audios process and makes prosody modelling an end-to-end procedure. Experimental analysis shows that GraphTTS outperforms the state-of-the-art sequence-to-sequence models by 0.24 in Mean Opinion Score (MOS). GAE can adjust the pause, ventilation and tones of synthesised audios automatically. This experimental conclusion may give some inspiration to researchers working on improving speech synthesis prosody.

eess.AS↗
arXiv2020

AlignTTS: Efficient Feed-Forward Text-to-Speech System without Explicit Alignment

Targeting at both high efficiency and performance, we propose AlignTTS to predict the mel-spectrum in parallel. AlignTTS is based on a Feed-Forward Transformer which generates mel-spectrum from a sequence of characters, and the duration of each character is determined by a duration predictor.Instead of adopting the attention mechanism in Transformer TTS to align text to mel-spectrum, the alignment loss is presented to consider all possible alignments in training by use of dynamic programming. Experiments on the LJSpeech dataset show that our model achieves not only state-of-the-art performance which outperforms Transformer TTS by 0.03 in mean option score (MOS), but also a high efficiency which is more than 50 times faster than real-time.

eess.AS↗
arXiv2019

A Random Interaction Forest for Prioritizing Predictive Biomarkers

Precision medicine is becoming a focus in medical research recently, as its implementation brings values to all stakeholders in the healthcare system. Various statistical methodologies have been developed tackling problems in different aspects of this field, e.g., assessing treatment heterogeneity, identifying patient subgroups, or building treatment decision models. However, there is a lack of new tools devoted to selecting and prioritizing predictive biomarkers. We propose a novel tree-based ensemble method, random interaction forest (RIF), to generate predictive importance scores and prioritize candidate biomarkers for constructing refined treatment decision models. RIF was evaluated by comparing with the conventional random forest and univariable regression methods and showed favorable properties under various simulation scenarios. We applied the proposed RIF method to a biomarker dataset from two phase III clinical trials of bezlotoxumab on $\textit{Clostridium difficile}$ infection recurrence and obtained biologically meaningful results.

q-bio.QM↗
arXiv2018

Semantic Mapping with Simultaneous Object Detection and Localization

We present a filtering-based method for semantic mapping to simultaneously detect objects and localize their 6 degree-of-freedom pose. For our method, called Contextual Temporal Mapping (or CT-Map), we represent the semantic map as a belief over object classes and poses across an observed scene. Inference for the semantic mapping problem is then modeled in the form of a Conditional Random Field (CRF). CT-Map is a CRF that considers two forms of relationship potentials to account for contextual relations between objects and temporal consistency of object poses, as well as a measurement potential on observations. A particle filtering algorithm is then proposed to perform inference in the CT-Map model. We demonstrate the efficacy of the CT-Map method with a Michigan Progress Fetch robot equipped with a RGB-D sensor. Our results demonstrate that the particle filtering based inference of CT-Map provides improved object detection and pose estimation with respect to baseline methods that treat observations as independent samples of a scene.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2018

Semantic Robot Programming for Goal-Directed Manipulation in Cluttered Scenes

We present the Semantic Robot Programming (SRP) paradigm as a convergence of robot programming by demonstration and semantic mapping. In SRP, a user can directly program a robot manipulator by demonstrating a snapshot of their intended goal scene in workspace. The robot then parses this goal as a scene graph comprised of object poses and inter-object relations, assuming known object geometries. Task and motion planning is then used to realize the user's goal from an arbitrary initial scene configuration. Even when faced with different initial scene configurations, SRP enables the robot to seamlessly adapt to reach the user's demonstrated goal. For scene perception, we propose the Discriminatively-Informed Generative Estimation of Scenes and Transforms (DIGEST) method to infer the initial and goal states of the world from RGBD images. The efficacy of SRP with DIGEST perception is demonstrated for the task of tray-setting with a Michigan Progress Fetch robot. Scene perception and task execution are evaluated with a public household occlusion dataset and our cluttered scene dataset.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2018

Meteorological data from KLAWS-2G for an astronomical site survey of Dome A, Antarctica

We present an analysis of meteorological data from the second generation of the Kunlun Automated Weather Station (KLAWS-2G) at Dome A, Antarctica during 2015 and 2016. We find that a strong temperature inversion exists for all the elevations up to 14 m that KLAWS-2G can reach, and lasts for more than 10 hours for 50% or more of the time when temperature inversion occurs. The average wind speeds at 4 m elevation are 4.2 m/s and 3.8 m/s during 2015 and 2016, respectively. The strong temperature inversion and moderate wind speed lead to a shallow turbulent boundary layer height at Dome A. By analyzing the temperature and wind shear profiles, we note telescopes should be elevated by at least 8 m above the ice. We also find that the duration of temperature inversions, and the wind speed, vary considerably from year to year. Therefore, long-term and continuous data are still needed for the site survey at Dome A.

astro-ph.IM↗