arXiv subjects

Zhengyang Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Zhengyang Zhou.

34 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Earthfarseer: Versatile Spatio-Temporal Dynamical Systems Modeling in One Model

Efficiently modeling spatio-temporal (ST) physical processes and observations presents a challenging problem for the deep learning community. Many recent studies have concentrated on meticulously reconciling various advantages, leading to designed models that are neither simple nor practical. To address this issue, this paper presents a systematic study on existing shortcomings faced by off-the-shelf models, including lack of local fidelity, poor prediction performance over long time-steps,low scalability, and inefficiency. To systematically address the aforementioned problems, we propose an EarthFarseer, a concise framework that combines parallel local convolutions and global Fourier-based transformer architectures, enabling dynamically capture the local-global spatial interactions and dependencies. EarthFarseer also incorporates a multi-scale fully convolutional and Fourier architectures to efficiently and effectively capture the temporal evolution. Our proposal demonstrates strong adaptability across various tasks and datasets, with fast convergence and better local fidelity in long time-steps predictions. Extensive experiments and visualizations over eight human society physical and natural physical datasets demonstrates the state-of-the-art performance of EarthFarseer. We release our code at https://github.com/easylearningscores/EarthFarseer.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Delayed Bottlenecking: Alleviating Forgetting in Pre-trained Graph Neural Networks

Pre-training GNNs to extract transferable knowledge and apply it to downstream tasks has become the de facto standard of graph representation learning. Recent works focused on designing self-supervised pre-training tasks to extract useful and universal transferable knowledge from large-scale unlabeled data. However, they have to face an inevitable question: traditional pre-training strategies that aim at extracting useful information about pre-training tasks, may not extract all useful information about the downstream task. In this paper, we reexamine the pre-training process within traditional pre-training and fine-tuning frameworks from the perspective of Information Bottleneck (IB) and confirm that the forgetting phenomenon in pre-training phase may cause detrimental effects on downstream tasks. Therefore, we propose a novel \underline{D}elayed \underline{B}ottlenecking \underline{P}re-training (DBP) framework which maintains as much as possible mutual information between latent representations and training data during pre-training phase by suppressing the compression operation and delays the compression operation to fine-tuning phase to make sure the compression can be guided with labeled fine-tuning data and downstream tasks. To achieve this, we design two information control objectives that can be directly optimized and further integrate them into the actual model design. Extensive experiments on both chemistry and biology domains demonstrate the effectiveness of DBP.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Towards Robust Trajectory Representations: Isolating Environmental Confounders with Causal Learning

Trajectory modeling refers to characterizing human movement behavior, serving as a pivotal step in understanding mobility patterns. Nevertheless, existing studies typically ignore the confounding effects of geospatial context, leading to the acquisition of spurious correlations and limited generalization capabilities. To bridge this gap, we initially formulate a Structural Causal Model (SCM) to decipher the trajectory representation learning process from a causal perspective. Building upon the SCM, we further present a Trajectory modeling framework (TrajCL) based on Causal Learning, which leverages the backdoor adjustment theory as an intervention tool to eliminate the spurious correlations between geospatial context and trajectories. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets verify that TrajCL markedly enhances performance in trajectory classification tasks while showcasing superior generalization and interpretability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

FairSTG: Countering performance heterogeneity via collaborative sample-level optimization

Spatiotemporal learning plays a crucial role in mobile computing techniques to empower smart cites. While existing research has made great efforts to achieve accurate predictions on the overall dataset, they still neglect the significant performance heterogeneity across samples. In this work, we designate the performance heterogeneity as the reason for unfair spatiotemporal learning, which not only degrades the practical functions of models, but also brings serious potential risks to real-world urban applications. To fix this gap, we propose a model-independent Fairness-aware framework for SpatioTemporal Graph learning (FairSTG), which inherits the idea of exploiting advantages of well-learned samples to challenging ones with collaborative mix-up. Specifically, FairSTG consists of a spatiotemporal feature extractor for model initialization, a collaborative representation enhancement for knowledge transfer between well-learned samples and challenging ones, and fairness objectives for immediately suppressing sample-level performance heterogeneity. Experiments on four spatiotemporal datasets demonstrate that our FairSTG significantly improves the fairness quality while maintaining comparable forecasting accuracy. Case studies show FairSTG can counter both spatial and temporal performance heterogeneity by our sample-level retrieval and compensation, and our work can potentially alleviate the risks on spatiotemporal resource allocation for underrepresented urban regions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

ComS2T: A complementary spatiotemporal learning system for data-adaptive model evolution

Spatiotemporal (ST) learning has become a crucial technique to enable smart cities and sustainable urban development. Current ST learning models capture the heterogeneity via various spatial convolution and temporal evolution blocks. However, rapid urbanization leads to fluctuating distributions in urban data and city structures over short periods, resulting in existing methods suffering generalization and data adaptation issues. Despite efforts, existing methods fail to deal with newly arrived observations and those methods with generalization capacity are limited in repeated training. Motivated by complementary learning in neuroscience, we introduce a prompt-based complementary spatiotemporal learning termed ComS2T, to empower the evolution of models for data adaptation. ComS2T partitions the neural architecture into a stable neocortex for consolidating historical memory and a dynamic hippocampus for new knowledge update. We first disentangle two disjoint structures into stable and dynamic weights, and then train spatial and temporal prompts by characterizing distribution of main observations to enable prompts adaptive to new data. This data-adaptive prompt mechanism, combined with a two-stage training process, facilitates fine-tuning of the neural architecture conditioned on prompts, thereby enabling efficient adaptation during testing. Extensive experiments validate the efficacy of ComS2T in adapting to various spatiotemporal out-of-distribution scenarios while maintaining efficient inference capabilities.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Graph Multi-Similarity Learning for Molecular Property Prediction

Enhancing accurate molecular property prediction relies on effective and proficient representation learning. It is crucial to incorporate diverse molecular relationships characterized by multi-similarity (self-similarity and relative similarities) between molecules. However, current molecular representation learning methods fall short in exploring multi-similarity and often underestimate the complexity of relationships between molecules. Additionally, previous multi-similarity approaches require the specification of positive and negative pairs to attribute distinct predefined weights to different relative similarities, which can introduce potential bias. In this work, we introduce Graph Multi-Similarity Learning for Molecular Property Prediction (GraphMSL) framework, along with a novel approach to formulate a generalized multi-similarity metric without the need to define positive and negative pairs. In each of the chemical modality spaces (e.g.,molecular depiction image, fingerprint, NMR, and SMILES) under consideration, we first define a self-similarity metric (i.e., similarity between an anchor molecule and another molecule), and then transform it into a generalized multi-similarity metric for the anchor through a pair weighting function. GraphMSL validates the efficacy of the multi-similarity metric across MoleculeNet datasets. Furthermore, these metrics of all modalities are integrated into a multimodal multi-similarity metric, which showcases the potential to improve the performance. Moreover, the focus of the model can be redirected or customized by altering the fusion function. Last but not least, GraphMSL proves effective in drug discovery evaluations through post-hoc analyses of the learnt representations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Chiral and non-chiral swift mode conversion near an exception point with dynamic adiabaticity engineering

The eigenvalue of a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian often forms a self-intersecting Riemann surface, leading to a unique mode conversion phenomenon when the Hamiltonian evolves along certain loop paths around an exceptional point (EP). However, two fundamental problems exist with the conventional scheme of EP encircling: the speed of mode conversion is restricted by the adiabatic requirement, and the chirality cannot be freely controlled. Here, we introduce a method which dynamically engineers the adiabaticity in the evolution of non-Hermitian Hamiltonians that allows for both chiral and non-chiral mode conversion on the same path. Our method is based on quantifying and controlling the instantaneous adiabaticity, allowing for non-uniform evolution throughout the entire path. We apply our method into the microwave waveguide system and by optimizing the distributed adiabaticity along the evolution loop, we achieve the same quality of mode conversion as conventional quasi-adiabatic evolution in only one-fourth of the time. Our approach provides a comprehensive and universal solution to address the speed and chirality challenges associated with EP encircling. It also facilitates the dynamic manipulation and regulation of non-adiabatic processes, thereby accelerating the operation and allowing for a selection among various mode conversion patterns.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2023

Deciphering Spatio-Temporal Graph Forecasting: A Causal Lens and Treatment

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate invariant parts and temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt the Hodge-Laplacian operator for edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A Simulation Study of the Performance of Statistical Models for Count Outcomes with Excessive Zeros

Background: Outcome measures that are count variables with excessive zeros are common in health behaviors research. There is a lack of empirical data about the relative performance of prevailing statistical models when outcomes are zero-inflated, particularly compared with recently developed approaches. Methods: The current simulation study examined five commonly used analytical approaches for count outcomes, including two linear models (with outcomes on raw and log-transformed scales, respectively) and three count distribution-based models (i.e., Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models). We also considered the marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) model, a novel alternative that estimates the effects on overall mean while adjusting for zero-inflation. Extensive simulations were conducted to evaluate their the statistical power and Type I error rate across various data conditions. Results: Under zero-inflation, the Poisson model failed to control the Type I error rate, resulting in higher than expected false positive results. When the intervention effects on the zero (vs. non-zero) and count parts were in the same direction, the MZIP model had the highest statistical power, followed by the linear model with outcomes on raw scale, negative binomial model, and ZIP model. The performance of a linear model with a log-transformed outcome variable was unsatisfactory. When only one of the effects on the zero (vs. non-zero) part and the count part existed, the ZIP model had the highest statistical power. Conclusions: The MZIP model demonstrated better statistical properties in detecting true intervention effects and controlling false positive results for zero-inflated count outcomes. This MZIP model may serve as an appealing analytical approach to evaluating overall intervention effects in studies with count outcomes marked by excessive zeros.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Graph-Free Learning in Graph-Structured Data: A More Efficient and Accurate Spatiotemporal Learning Perspective

Spatiotemporal learning, which aims at extracting spatiotemporal correlations from the collected spatiotemporal data, is a research hotspot in recent years. And considering the inherent graph structure of spatiotemporal data, recent works focus on capturing spatial dependencies by utilizing Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) to aggregate vertex features with the guidance of adjacency matrices. In this paper, with extensive and deep-going experiments, we comprehensively analyze existing spatiotemporal graph learning models and reveal that extracting adjacency matrices with carefully design strategies, which are viewed as the key of enhancing performance on graph learning, are largely ineffective. Meanwhile, based on these experiments, we also discover that the aggregation itself is more important than the way that how vertices are aggregated. With these preliminary, a novel efficient Graph-Free Spatial (GFS) learning module based on layer normalization for capturing spatial correlations in spatiotemporal graph learning. The proposed GFS module can be easily plugged into existing models for replacing all graph convolution components. Rigorous theoretical proof demonstrates that the time complexity of GFS is significantly better than that of graph convolution operation. Extensive experiments verify the superiority of GFS in both the perspectives of efficiency and learning effect in processing graph-structured data especially extreme large scale graph data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Towards Learning in Grey Spatiotemporal Systems: A Prophet to Non-consecutive Spatiotemporal Dynamics

Spatiotemporal forecasting is an imperative topic in data science due to its diverse and critical applications in smart cities. Existing works mostly perform consecutive predictions of following steps with observations completely and continuously obtained, where nearest observations can be exploited as key knowledge for instantaneous status estimation. However, the practical issues of early activity planning and sensor failures elicit a brand-new task, i.e., non-consecutive forecasting. In this paper, we define spatiotemporal learning systems with missing observation as Grey Spatiotemporal Systems (G2S) and propose a Factor-Decoupled learning framework for G2S (FDG2S), where the core idea is to hierarchically decouple multi-level factors and enable both flexible aggregations and disentangled uncertainty estimations. Firstly, to compensate for missing observations, a generic semantic-neighboring sequence sampling is devised, which selects representative sequences to capture both periodical regularity and instantaneous variations. Secondly, we turn the predictions of non-consecutive statuses into inferring statuses under expected combined exogenous factors. In particular, a factor-decoupled aggregation scheme is proposed to decouple factor-induced predictive intensity and region-wise proximity by two energy functions of conditional random field. To infer region-wise proximity under flexible factor-wise combinations and enable dynamic neighborhood aggregations, we further disentangle compounded influences of exogenous factors on region-wise proximity and learn to aggregate them. Given the inherent incompleteness and critical applications of G2S, a DisEntangled Uncertainty Quantification is put forward, to identify two types of uncertainty for reliability guarantees and model interpretations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

A Bias Correction Method in Meta-analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials with no Adjustments for Zero-inflated Outcomes

Many clinical endpoint measures, such as the number of standard drinks consumed per week or the number of days that patients stayed in the hospital, are count data with excessive zeros. However, the zero-inflated nature of such outcomes is sometimes ignored in analyses of clinical trials. This leads to biased estimates of study-level intervention effect and, consequently, a biased estimate of the overall intervention effect in a meta-analysis. The current study proposes a novel statistical approach, the Zero-inflation Bias Correction (ZIBC) method, that can account for the bias introduced when using the Poisson regression model, despite a high rate of inflated zeros in the outcome distribution of a randomized clinical trial. This correction method only requires summary information from individual studies to correct intervention effect estimates as if they were appropriately estimated using the zero-inflated Poisson regression model, thus it is attractive for meta-analysis when individual participant-level data are not available in some studies. Simulation studies and real data analyses showed that the ZIBC method performed well in correcting zero-inflation bias in most situations.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

STUaNet: Understanding uncertainty in spatiotemporal collective human mobility

The high dynamics and heterogeneous interactions in the complicated urban systems have raised the issue of uncertainty quantification in spatiotemporal human mobility, to support critical decision-makings in risk-aware web applications such as urban event prediction where fluctuations are of significant interests. Given the fact that uncertainty quantifies the potential variations around prediction results, traditional learning schemes always lack uncertainty labels, and conventional uncertainty quantification approaches mostly rely upon statistical estimations with Bayesian Neural Networks or ensemble methods. However, they have never involved any spatiotemporal evolution of uncertainties under various contexts, and also have kept suffering from the poor efficiency of statistical uncertainty estimation while training models with multiple times. To provide high-quality uncertainty quantification for spatiotemporal forecasting, we propose an uncertainty learning mechanism to simultaneously estimate internal data quality and quantify external uncertainty regarding various contextual interactions. To address the issue of lacking labels of uncertainty, we propose a hierarchical data turbulence scheme where we can actively inject controllable uncertainty for guidance, and hence provide insights to both uncertainty quantification and weak supervised learning. Finally, we re-calibrate and boost the prediction performance by devising a gated-based bridge to adaptively leverage the learned uncertainty into predictions. Extensive experiments on three real-world spatiotemporal mobility sets have corroborated the superiority of our proposed model in terms of both forecasting and uncertainty quantification.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Machine Learning Forecasting of Active Nematics

Active nematics are a class of far-from-equilibrium materials characterized by local orientational order of force-generating, anisotropic constitutes. Traditional methods for predicting the dynamics of active nematics rely on hydrodynamic models, which accurately describe idealized flows and many of the steady-state properties, but do not capture certain detailed dynamics of experimental active nematics. We have developed a deep learning approach that uses a Convolutional Long-Short-Term-Memory (ConvLSTM) algorithm to automatically learn and forecast the dynamics of active nematics. We demonstrate our purely data-driven approach on experiments of 2D unconfined active nematics of extensile microtubule bundles, as well as on data from numerical simulations of active nematics.

cond-mat.soft↗

arXiv2020

Sample Size Calculation for Cluster Randomized Trials with Zero-inflated Count Outcomes

Cluster randomized trails (CRT) have been widely employed in medical and public health research. Many clinical count outcomes, such as the number of falls in nursing homes, exhibit excessive zero values. In the presence of zero inflation, traditional power analysis methods for count data based on Poisson or negative binomial distribution may be inadequate. In this study, we present a sample size method for CRTs with zero-inflated count outcomes. It is developed based on GEE regression directly modeling the marginal mean of a ZIP outcome, which avoids the challenge of testing two intervention effects under traditional modeling approaches. A closed-form sample size formula is derived which properly accounts for zero inflation, ICCs due to clustering, unbalanced randomization, and variability in cluster size. Robust approaches, including t-distribution-based approximation and Jackknife re-sampling variance estimator, are employed to enhance trial properties under small sample sizes. Extensive simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. An application example is presented in a real clinical trial setting.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

RiskOracle: A Minute-level Citywide Traffic Accident Forecasting Framework

Real-time traffic accident forecasting is increasingly important for public safety and urban management (e.g., real-time safe route planning and emergency response deployment). Previous works on accident forecasting are often performed on hour levels, utilizing existed neural networks with static region-wise correlations taken into account. However, it is still challenging when the granularity of forecasting step improves as the highly dynamic nature of road network and inherent rareness of accident records in one training sample, which leads to biased results and zero-inflated issue. In this work, we propose a novel framework RiskOracle, to improve the prediction granularity to minute levels. Specifically, we first transform the zero-risk values in labels to fit the training network. Then, we propose the Differential Time-varying Graph neural network (DTGN) to capture the immediate changes of traffic status and dynamic inter-subregion correlations. Furthermore, we adopt multi-task and region selection schemes to highlight citywide most-likely accident subregions, bridging the gap between biased risk values and sporadic accident distribution. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our RiskOracle framework.

cs.AI↗