arXiv subjects

Zhenkun Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Zhenkun Zhou.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Suspended accounts align with the Internet Research Agency misinformation campaign to influence the 2016 US election

The ongoing debate surrounding the impact of the Internet Research Agency s (IRA) social media campaign during the 2016 U.S. presidential election has largely overshadowed the involvement of other actors. Our analysis brings to light a substantial group of suspended Twitter users, outnumbering the IRA user group by a factor of 60, who align with the ideologies of the IRA campaign. Our study demonstrates that this group of suspended Twitter accounts significantly influenced individuals categorized as undecided or weak supporters, potentially with the aim of swaying their opinions, as indicated by Granger causality.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Explorers at #SMM4H 2023: Enhancing BERT for Health Applications through Knowledge and Model Fusion

An increasing number of individuals are willing to post states and opinions in social media, which has become a valuable data resource for studying human health. Furthermore, social media has been a crucial research point for healthcare now. This paper outlines the methods in our participation in the #SMM4H 2023 Shared Tasks, including data preprocessing, continual pre-training and fine-tuned optimization strategies. Especially for the Named Entity Recognition (NER) task, we utilize the model architecture named W2NER that effectively enhances the model generalization ability. Our method achieved first place in the Task 3. This paper has been peer-reviewed and accepted for presentation at the #SMM4H 2023 Workshop.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

A New Weighted Food CPI from Scanner Big Data in China

Scanner big data has potential to construct Consumer Price Index (CPI). The study introduces a new weighted price index called S-FCPIw, which is constructed using scanner big data from retail sales in China. We address the limitations of China's CPI especially for its high cost and untimely release, and demonstrate the reliability of S-FCPIw by comparing it with existing price indices. S-FCPIw can not only reflect the changes of goods prices in higher frequency and richer dimension, and the analysis results show that S-FCPIw has a significant and strong relationship with CPI and Food CPI. The findings suggest that scanner big data can supplement traditional CPI calculations in China and provide new insights into macroeconomic trends and inflation prediction. We have made S-FCPIw publicly available and update it on a weekly basis to facilitate further study in this field.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Predicting China's CPI by Scanner Big Data

Scanner big data has potential to construct Consumer Price Index (CPI). This work utilizes the scanner data of supermarket retail sales, which are provided by China Ant Business Alliance (CAA), to construct the Scanner-data Food Consumer Price Index (S-FCPI) in China, and the index reliability is verified by other macro indicators, especially by China's CPI. And not only that, we build multiple machine learning models based on S-FCPI to quantitatively predict the CPI growth rate in months, and qualitatively predict those directions and levels. The prediction models achieve much better performance than the traditional time series models in existing research. This work paves the way to construct and predict price indexes through using scanner big data in China. S-FCPI can not only reflect the changes of goods prices in higher frequency and wider geographic dimension than CPI, but also provide a new perspective for monitoring macroeconomic operation, predicting inflation and understanding other economic issues, which is beneficial supplement to China's CPI.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

The Impact of Customer Online Satisfaction on Stock Returns: Evidence from the E-commerce Reviews in China

This paper investigates the significance of consumer opinions in relation to value in China's A-share market. By analyzing a large dataset comprising over 18 million product reviews by customers on JD.com, we demonstrate that sentiments expressed in consumer reviews can influence stock returns, indicating that consumer opinions contain valuable information that can impact the stock market. Our findings show that Customer Negative Sentiment Tendency (CNST) and One-Star Tendency (OST) have a negative effect on expected stock returns, even after controlling for firm characteristics such as market risk, illiquidity, idiosyncratic volatility, and asset growth. Further analysis reveals that the predictive power of CNST is stronger in firms with high sentiment conditions, growth companies, and firms with lower accounting transparency. We also find that CNST negatively predicts revenue surprises, earnings surprises, and cash flow shocks. These results suggest that online satisfaction derived from big data analysis of customer reviews contains novel information about firms' fundamentals.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Detecting Political Opinions in Tweets through Bipartite Graph Analysis: A Skip Aggregation Graph Convolution Approach

Public opinion is a crucial factor in shaping political decision-making. Nowadays, social media has become an essential platform for individuals to engage in political discussions and express their political views, presenting researchers with an invaluable resource for analyzing public opinion. In this paper, we focus on the 2020 US presidential election and create a large-scale dataset from Twitter. To detect political opinions in tweets, we build a user-tweet bipartite graph based on users' posting and retweeting behaviors and convert the task into a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based node classification problem. Then, we introduce a novel skip aggregation mechanism that makes tweet nodes aggregate information from second-order neighbors, which are also tweet nodes due to the graph's bipartite nature, effectively leveraging user behavioral information. The experimental results show that our proposed model significantly outperforms several competitive baselines. Further analyses demonstrate the significance of user behavioral information and the effectiveness of skip aggregation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

DoubleH: Twitter User Stance Detection via Bipartite Graph Neural Networks

Given the development and abundance of social media, studying the stance of social media users is a challenging and pressing issue. Social media users express their stance by posting tweets and retweeting. Therefore, the homogeneous relationship between users and the heterogeneous relationship between users and tweets are relevant for the stance detection task. Recently, graph neural networks (GNNs) have developed rapidly and have been applied to social media research. In this paper, we crawl a large-scale dataset of the 2020 US presidential election and automatically label all users by manually tagged hashtags. Subsequently, we propose a bipartite graph neural network model, DoubleH, which aims to better utilize homogeneous and heterogeneous information in user stance detection tasks. Specifically, we first construct a bipartite graph based on posting and retweeting relations for two kinds of nodes, including users and tweets. We then iteratively update the node's representation by extracting and separately processing heterogeneous and homogeneous information in the node's neighbors. Finally, the representations of user nodes are used for user stance classification. Experimental results show that DoubleH outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on popular benchmarks. Further analysis illustrates the model's utilization of information and demonstrates stability and efficiency at different numbers of layers.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

When Cyber Aggression Prediction Meets BERT on Social Media

Increasingly, cyber aggression becomes the prevalent phenomenon that erodes the social media environment. However, due to subjective and expense, the traditional self-reporting questionnaire is hard to be employed in the current cyber area. In this study, we put forward the prediction model for cyber aggression based on the cutting-edge deep learning algorithm. Building on 320 active Weibo users' social media activities, we construct basic, dynamic, and content features. We elaborate cyber aggression on three dimensions: social exclusion, malicious humour, and guilt induction. We then build the prediction model combined with pretrained BERT model. The empirical evidence shows outperformance and supports a stronger prediction with the BERT model than traditional machine learning models without extra pretrained information. This study offers a solid theoretical model for cyber aggression prediction. Furthermore, this study contributes to cyber aggression behaviors' probing and social media platforms' organization.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Shifting Polarization and Twitter News Influencers between two U.S. Presidential Elections

Social media are decentralized, interactive, and transformative, empowering users to produce and spread information to influence others. This has changed the dynamics of political communication that were previously dominated by traditional corporate news media. Having hundreds of millions of tweets collected over the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections gave us a unique opportunity to measure the change in polarization and the diffusion of political information. We analyze the diffusion of political information among Twitter users and investigate the change of polarization between these elections and how this change affected the composition and polarization of influencers and their retweeters. We identify "influencers" by their ability to spread information and classify them into those affiliated with a media organization, a political organization, or unaffiliated. Most of the top influencers were affiliated with media organizations during both elections. We found a clear increase from 2016 to 2020 in polarization among influencers and among those whom they influence. Moreover, 75% of the top influencers in 2020 were not present in 2016, demonstrating that such status is difficult to retain. Between 2016 and 2020, 10% of influencers affiliated with media were replaced by center- or right-orientated influencers affiliated with political organizations and unaffiliated influencers.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Why polls fail to predict elections

In the past decade we have witnessed the failure of traditional polls in predicting presidential election outcomes across the world. To understand the reasons behind these failures we analyze the raw data of a trusted pollster which failed to predict, along with the rest of the pollsters, the surprising 2019 presidential election in Argentina which has led to a major market collapse in that country. Analysis of the raw and re-weighted data from longitudinal surveys performed before and after the elections reveals clear biases (beyond well-known low-response rates) related to mis-representation of the population and, most importantly, to social-desirability biases, i.e., the tendency of respondents to hide their intention to vote for controversial candidates. We then propose a longitudinal opinion tracking method based on big-data analytics from social media, machine learning, and network theory that overcomes the limits of traditional polls. The model achieves accurate results in the 2019 Argentina elections predicting the overwhelming victory of the candidate Alberto Fernández over the president Mauricio Macri; a result that none of the traditional pollsters in the country was able to predict. Beyond predicting political elections, the framework we propose is more general and can be used to discover trends in society; for instance, what people think about economics, education or climate change.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Artificial intelligence for elections: the case of 2019 Argentina primary and presidential election

We use a method based on machine learning, big-data analytics, and network theory to process millions of messages posted in Twitter to predict election outcomes. The model has achieved accurate results in the current Argentina primary presidential election on August 11, 2019 by predicting the large difference win of candidate Alberto Fernandez over president Mauricio Macri; a result that none of the traditional pollsters in that country was able to predict, and has led to a major bond market collapse. We apply the model to the upcoming Argentina presidential election on October 27, 2019 yielding the following results: Fernandez 47.5%, Macri 30.9% and third party 21.6%. Our method improves over traditional polling methods which are based on direct interactions with small number of individuals that are plagued by ever declining response rates, currently falling in the low single digits. They provide a reliable polling method that can be applied not only to predict elections but to discover any trend in society, for instance, what people think about climate change, politics or education.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Homophily of Music Listening in Online Social Networks

Homophily, ranging from demographics to sentiments, breeds connections in social networks, either offline or online. However, with the prosperous growth of music streaming service, whether homophily exists in online music listening remains unclear. In this study, two online social networks of a same group of active users are established respectively in Netease Music and Weibo. Through presented multiple similarity measures, it is evidently demonstrated that homophily does exist in music listening of both online social networks. The unexpected music similarity in Weibo also implies that knowledge from generic social networks can be confidently transfered to domain-oriented networks for context enrichment and algorithm enhancement. Comprehensive factors that might function in formation of homophily are further probed and many interesting patterns are profoundly revealed. It is found that female friends are more homogeneous in music listening and positive and energetic songs significantly pull users close. Our methodology and findings would shed lights on realistic applications in online music services.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Tales of Emotion and Stock in China: Volatility, Causality and Prediction

How the online social media, like Twitter or its variant Weibo, interacts with the stock market and whether it can be a convincing proxy to predict the stock market have been debated for years, especially for China. As the traditional theory in behavioral finance states, the individual emotions can influence decision-makings of investors, it is reasonable to further explore these controversial topics systematically from the perspective of online emotions, which are richly carried by massive tweets in social media. Through thorough studies on over 10 million stock-relevant tweets and 3 million investors from Weibo, it is revealed that inexperienced investors with high emotional volatility are more sensible to the market fluctuations than the experienced or institutional ones, and their dominant occupation also indicates that the Chinese market might be more emotional as compared to its western counterparts. Then both correlation analysis and causality test demonstrate that five attributes of the stock market in China can be competently predicted by various online emotions, like disgust, joy, sadness and fear. Specifically, the presented prediction model significantly outperforms the baseline model, including the one taking purely financial time series as input features, on predicting five attributes of the stock market under the $K$-means discretization. We also employ this prediction model in the scenario of realistic online application and its performance is further testified.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2017

Extroverts Tweet Differently from Introverts in Weibo

Being dominant factors driving the human actions, personalities can be excellent indicators in predicting the offline and online behavior of different individuals. However, because of the great expense and inevitable subjectivity in questionnaires and surveys, it is challenging for conventional studies to explore the connection between personality and behavior and gain insights in the context of large amount individuals. Considering the more and more important role of the online social media in daily communications, we argue that the footprint of massive individuals, like tweets in Weibo, can be the inspiring proxy to infer the personality and further understand its functions in shaping the online human behavior. In this study, a map from self-reports of personalities to online profiles of 293 active users in Weibo is established to train a competent machine learning model, which then successfully identifies over 7,000 users as extroverts or introverts. Systematical comparisons from perspectives of tempo-spatial patterns, online activities, emotion expressions and attitudes to virtual honor surprisingly disclose that the extrovert indeed behaves differently from the introvert in Weibo. Our findings provide solid evidence to justify the methodology of employing machine learning to objectively study personalities of massive individuals and shed lights on applications of probing personalities and corresponding behaviors solely through online profiles.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2016

Can Online Emotions Predict the Stock Market in China?

Whether the online social media, like Twitter or its variant Weibo, can be a convincing proxy to predict the stock market has been debated for years, especially for China. However, as the traditional theory in behavioral finance states, the individual emotions can influence decision-making of investors, so it is reasonable to further explore this controversial topic from the perspective of online emotions, which is richly carried by massive tweets in social media. Surprisingly, through thorough study on over 10 million stock-relevant tweets from Weibo, both correlation analysis and causality test show that five attributes of the stock market in China can be competently predicted by various online emotions, like disgust, joy, sadness and fear. Specifically, the presented model significantly outperforms the baseline solutions on predicting five attributes of the stock market under the $K$-means discretization. We also employ this model in the scenario of realistic online application and its performance is further testified.

cs.SI↗