arXiv subjects

Zhenliang Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Zhenliang Ma.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Bayesian Framework for Evaluating Scenario Compatibility in Generative Population Synthesis

Scenario-based transportation analysis specifies future assumptions through aggregate population targets, whereas generative population synthesis models produce detailed individual-level realizations. When scenario targets are imposed on generative models, current practice relies on deterministic marginal calibration, implicitly assuming that the targets are compatible with the model's learned structural support. However, whether scenario-level constraints lie within the generative support--and how strongly they distort structural uncertainty--remains largely unexamined. We propose an ensemble-based Bayesian updating framework to quantify scenario compatibility in conditional population synthesis. A population-aware conditional variational autoencoder is developed to learn a distribution over plausible population structures while preserving aggregate fidelity. An ensemble of realizations sampled from the learned prior provides an empirical approximation of structural uncertainty. Scenario targets are treated as probabilistic evidence over aggregate statistics, and posterior weights are obtained through Bayesian updating across the ensemble. Scenario compatibility is quantified using effective sample size (ESS), which measures posterior concentration and the compression of structural uncertainty induced by conditioning. Experiments demonstrate that scenario impact depends not only on target magnitude but also on alignment with the learned joint structure, and reveal structural failure modes when targets fall outside prior ensemble support. The proposed framework provides a probabilistic diagnostic model for evaluating scenario feasibility and structural consistency before downstream projection and transportation planning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

SemaPop: Semantic-Persona Conditioned and Controllable Population Synthesis

Population synthesis is essential for individual-level simulation in transport planning and socio-economic analysis, yet remains challenging due to the need to capture both statistical dependencies and high-level behavioral semantics. Existing data-driven approaches predominantly rely on unconditional generation, limiting their ability to support scenario-driven or target-oriented population synthesis. This study proposes SemaPop, a semantic-conditioned and controllable population synthesis framework that introduces persona representations as conditioning signals for generation. By deriving persona text from survey data using large language models (LLMs) and encoding it into semantic embeddings, SemaPop enables controllable population generation under statistical constraints. We instantiate the framework using a GAN-based architecture with marginal regularization to preserve distributional consistency. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SemaPop substantially improves generative performance, yielding closer alignment with target marginal and joint distributions while maintaining sample-level feasibility and diversity under semantic conditioning. Counterfactual analyses further demonstrate that semantic interventions induce systematic and interpretable shifts in generated populations. These results highlight the potential of persona-based semantic conditioning for controllable and scenario-oriented population synthesis.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

EvolveSignal: A Large Language Model Powered Coding Agent for Discovering Traffic Signal Control Strategies

In traffic engineering, fixed-time traffic signal control remains widely used for its low cost, stability, and interpretability. However, its design relies on hand-crafted formulas (e.g., Webster) and manual re-timing by engineers to adapt to demand changes, which is labor-intensive and often yields suboptimal results under heterogeneous or congested conditions. This paper introduces EvolveSignal, an LLM-powered coding agent for automatically discovering interpretable heuristic strategies for fixed-time traffic signal control. Rather than deriving entirely new analytical formulations, the proposed framework focuses on exploring code-level variations of existing control logic and identifying effective combinations of heuristic modifications. We formulate the problem as program synthesis, where candidate strategies are represented as Python functions with fixed input-output structures and iteratively optimized through external evaluations (e.g., a traffic simulator) and evolutionary search. Experiments on a signalized intersection demonstrate that the discovered strategies outperform a classical baseline (Webster's method), reducing average delay by 20.1\% and average stops by 47.1\%. Beyond performance, ablation and incremental analyses reveal that EvolveSignal can identify meaningful modifications, such as adjusting cycle length bounds, incorporating right-turn demand, and rescaling green allocations, that provide useful insights for traffic engineers. This work highlights the potential of LLM-driven program synthesis for supporting interpretable and automated heuristic design in traffic signal control.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

BoostTaxo: Zero-Shot Taxonomy Induction via Boosting-Style Agentic Reasoning and Constraint-Aware Calibration

Taxonomy induction is crucial for organizing concepts into explicit and interpretable semantic hierarchies. While existing methods have achieved promising results, their generalization, structural reliability, and efficiency remain limited, hindering their performance in zero-shot and large-scale scenarios. To overcome these limitations, we introduce BoostTaxo, a boosting-style LLM framework for zero-shot taxonomy induction. It takes a set of domain terms as inputs and performs parent identification in a coarse-to-fine manner, employing retrieval-augmented definition refinement, hybrid parent candidate selection, candidate rating, and structure-aware score calibration to improve taxonomy construction. Specifically, a lightweight LLM is used to efficiently filter candidate parents, while a large-scale LLM is employed to rank and score candidate parents for fine-grained parent selection. Structural features are further incorporated to calibrate candidate edge weights and enhance the reliability of the induced taxonomy. The unified BoostTaxo is evaluated on three public benchmark datasets, namely WordNet, DBLP, and SemEval-Sci, and achieves superior or comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods in zero-shot taxonomy induction. The ablation study validates the contribution of the hybrid parent candidate selection and the structure-aware score calibration to the overall performance. Further analysis investigates the impact of candidate selection size on taxonomy quality and presents representative case and failure studies, providing deeper insights into the effectiveness and limitations of the proposed framework.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

A Foundational Individual Mobility Prediction Model based on Open-Source Large Language Models

Individual mobility prediction plays a key role in urban transport, enabling personalized service recommendations and effective travel management. It is widely modeled by data-driven methods such as machine learning, deep learning, as well as classical econometric methods to capture key features of mobility patterns. However, such methods are hindered in promoting further transferability and robustness due to limited capacity to learn mobility patterns from different data sources, predict in out-of-distribution settings (a.k.a ``zero-shot"). To address this challenge, this paper introduces MoBLLM, a foundational model for individual mobility prediction that aims to learn a shared and transferable representation of mobility behavior across heterogeneous data sources. Based on a lightweight open-source large language model (LLM), MoBLLM employs Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques to create a cost-effective training pipeline, avoiding the need for large-scale GPU clusters while maintaining strong performance. We conduct extensive experiments on six real-world mobility datasets to evaluate its accuracy, robustness, and transferability across varying temporal scales (years), spatial contexts (cities), and situational conditions (e.g., disruptions and interventions). MoBLLM achieves the best F1 score and accuracy across all datasets compared with state-of-the-art deep learning models and shows better transferability and cost efficiency than commercial LLMs. Further experiments reveal its robustness under network changes, policy interventions, special events, and incidents. These results indicate that MoBLLM provides a generalizable modeling foundation for individual mobility behavior, enabling more reliable and adaptive personalized information services for transportation management.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

A Comprehensive Evaluation Framework for Synthetic Trip Data Generation in Public Transport

Synthetic data offers a promising solution to the privacy and accessibility challenges of using smart card data in public transport research. Despite rapid progress in generative modeling, there is limited attention to comprehensive evaluation, leaving unclear how reliable, safe, and useful synthetic data truly are. Existing evaluations remain fragmented, typically limited to population-level representativeness or record-level privacy, without considering group-level variations or task-specific utility. To address this gap, we propose a Representativeness-Privacy-Utility (RPU) framework that systematically evaluates synthetic trip data across three complementary dimensions and three hierarchical levels (record, group, population). The framework integrates a consistent set of metrics to quantify similarity, disclosure risk, and practical usefulness, enabling transparent and balanced assessment of synthetic data quality. We apply the framework to benchmark twelve representative generation methods, spanning conventional statistical models, deep generative networks, and privacy-enhanced variants. Results show that synthetic data do not inherently guarantee privacy and there is no "one-size-fits-all" model, the trade-off between privacy and representativeness/utility is obvious. Conditional Tabular generative adversarial network (CTGAN) provide the most balanced trade-off and is suggested for practical applications. The RPU framework provides a systematic and reproducible basis for researchers and practitioners to compare synthetic data generation techniques and select appropriate methods in public transport applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

RouteKG: A knowledge graph-based framework for route prediction on road networks

Short-term route prediction on road networks allows us to anticipate the future trajectories of road users, enabling various applications ranging from dynamic traffic control to personalized navigation. Despite recent advances in this area, existing methods focus primarily on learning sequential transition patterns, neglecting the inherent spatial relations in road networks that can affect human routing decisions. To fill this gap, this paper introduces RouteKG, a novel Knowledge Graph-based framework for route prediction. Specifically, we construct a Knowledge Graph on the road network to encode spatial relations, especially moving directions that are crucial for human navigation. Moreover, an n-ary tree-based algorithm is introduced to efficiently generate top-K routes in batch mode, enhancing computational efficiency. To further optimize prediction performance, a rank refinement module is incorporated to fine-tune candidate route rankings. The model performance is evaluated using two real-world vehicle trajectory datasets from two Chinese cities under various practical scenarios. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in accuracy over the baseline methods. We further validate the proposed method by utilizing the pre-trained model as a simulator for real-time traffic flow estimation at the link level. RouteKG has great potential to transform vehicle navigation, traffic management, and a variety of intelligent transportation tasks, playing a crucial role in advancing the core foundation of intelligent and connected urban systems. The source codes of RouteKG are available at https://github.com/YihongT/RouteKG.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Group Effect Enhanced Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning for Individual Travel Behavior Modeling under Incentives

Understanding and modeling individual travel behavior responses is crucial for urban mobility regulation and policy evaluation. The Markov decision process (MDP) provides a structured framework for dynamic travel behavior modeling at the individual level. However, solving an MDP in this context is highly data-intensive and faces challenges of data quantity, spatial-temporal coverage, and situational diversity. To address these, we propose a group-effect-enhanced generative adversarial imitation learning (gcGAIL) model that improves the individual behavior modeling efficiency by leveraging shared behavioral patterns among passenger groups. We validate the gcGAIL model using a public transport fare-discount case study and compare against state-of-the-art benchmarks, including adversarial inverse reinforcement learning (AIRL), baseline GAIL, and conditional GAIL. Experimental results demonstrate that gcGAIL outperforms these methods in learning individual travel behavior responses to incentives over time in terms of accuracy, generalization, and pattern demonstration efficiency. Notably, gcGAIL is robust to spatial variation, data sparsity, and behavioral diversity, maintaining strong performance even with partial expert demonstrations and underrepresented passenger groups. The gcGAIL model predicts the individual behavior response at any time, providing the basis for personalized incentives to induce sustainable behavior changes (better timing of incentive injections).

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling of passenger trip assignment in metro networks

Assigning passenger trips to specific network paths using automatic fare collection (AFC) data is a fundamental application in urban transit analysis. The task is a difficult inverse problem: the only available information consists of each passenger's total travel time and their origin and destination, while individual passenger path choices and dynamic network costs are unobservable, and behavior varies significantly across space and time. We propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model to resolve this problem by jointly estimating dynamic network costs and passenger path choices while quantifying their uncertainty. Our model decomposes trip travel time into four components -- access, in-vehicle, transfer, and egress -- each modeled as a time-varying random walk. To capture heterogeneous passenger behavior, we introduce a multinomial logit model with spatiotemporally varying coefficients. We manage the high dimensionality of these coefficients using kernelized tensor factorization with Gaussian process priors to effectively model complex spatiotemporal correlations. We develop a tailored and efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for model inference. A simulation study demonstrates the method's effectiveness in recovering the underlying model parameters. On a large-scale dataset from the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway, our framework demonstrates superior estimation accuracy over established benchmarks. The results reveal significant spatiotemporal variations in passenger preferences and provide robust uncertainty quantification, offering transit operators a powerful tool for enhancing service planning and operational management.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Chat2SPaT: A Large Language Model Based Tool for Automating Traffic Signal Control Plan Management

Pre-timed traffic signal control, commonly used for operating signalized intersections and coordinated arterials, requires tedious manual work for signaling plan creating and updating. When the time-of-day or day-of-week plans are utilized, one intersection is often associated with multiple plans, leading to further repetitive manual plan parameter inputting. To enable a user-friendly traffic signal control plan management process, this study proposes Chat2SPaT, a method to convert users' semi-structured and ambiguous descriptions on the signal control plan to exact signal phase and timing (SPaT) results, which could further be transformed into structured stage-based or ring-based plans to interact with intelligent transportation system (ITS) software and traffic signal controllers. With curated prompts, Chat2SPaT first leverages large language models' (LLMs) capability of understanding users' plan descriptions and reformulate the plan as a combination of phase sequence and phase attribute results in the json format. Based on LLM outputs, python scripts are designed to locate phases in a cycle, address nuances of traffic signal control, and finally assemble the complete traffic signal control plan. Within a chat, the pipeline can be utilized iteratively to conduct further plan editing. Experiments show that Chat2SPaT can generate plans with an accuracy of over 94% for both English and Chinese cases, using a test dataset with over 300 plan descriptions. As the first benchmark for evaluating LLMs' capability of understanding traffic signal control plan descriptions, Chat2SPaT provides an easy-to-use plan management pipeline for traffic practitioners and researchers, serving as a potential new building block for a more accurate and versatile application of LLMs in the field of ITS. The source codes, prompts and test dataset are openly accessible at https://github.com/yuewangits/Chat2SPaT.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Scalable and Reliable Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning for Traffic Assignment

The evolution of metropolitan cities and the increase in travel demands impose stringent requirements on traffic assignment methods. Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) approaches outperform traditional methods in modeling adaptive routing behavior without requiring explicit system dynamics, which is beneficial for real-world deployment. However, MARL frameworks face challenges in scalability and reliability when managing extensive networks with substantial travel demand, which limiting their practical applicability in solving large-scale traffic assignment problems. To address these challenges, this study introduces MARL-OD-DA, a new MARL framework for the traffic assignment problem, which redefines agents as origin-destination (OD) pair routers rather than individual travelers, significantly enhancing scalability. Additionally, a Dirichlet-based action space with action pruning and a reward function based on the local relative gap are designed to enhance solution reliability and improve convergence efficiency. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed MARL framework effectively handles medium-sized networks with extensive and varied city-level OD demand, surpassing existing MARL methods. When implemented in the SiouxFalls network, MARL-OD-DA achieves better assignment solutions in 10 steps, with a relative gap that is 94.99% lower than that of conventional methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

An Exact System Optimum Assignment Model for Transit Demand Management

Mass transit systems are experiencing increasing congestion in many cities. The schedule-based transit assignment problem (STAP) involves a joint choice model for departure times and routes, defining a space-time path in which passengers decide when to depart and which route to take. User equilibrium (UE) models for the STAP indicates the current congestion cost, while a system optimum (SO) models can provide insights for congestion relief directions. However, current STAP methods rely on approximate SO (Approx. SO) models, which underestimate the potential for congestion reduction in the system. The few studies in STAP that compute exact SO solutions ignore realistic constraints such as hard capacity, multi-line networks, or spatial-temporal competing demand flows. The paper proposes an exact SO method for the STAP that overcomes these limitations. We apply our approach to a case study involving part of the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway network, which includes 5 lines, 12 interacting origin-destination pairs and 52,717 passengers. Computing an Approx. SO solution for this system indicates a modest potential for congestion reduction measures, with a cost reduction of 17.39% from the UE solution. Our exact SO solution is 36.35% lower than the UE solution, which is more than double the potential for congestion reduction. We then show how the exact SO solution can be used to identify opportunities for congestion reduction: (i) which origin-destination pairs have the most potential to reduce congestion; (ii) how many passengers can be reasonably shifted; (iii) future system potential with increasing demand and expanding network capacity.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Reinforcement Learning-based Sequential Route Recommendation for System-Optimal Traffic Assignment

Modern navigation systems and shared mobility platforms increasingly rely on personalized route recommendations to improve individual travel experience and operational efficiency. However, a key question remains: can such sequential, personalized routing decisions collectively lead to system-optimal (SO) traffic assignment? This paper addresses this question by proposing a learning-based framework that reformulates the static SO traffic assignment problem as a single-agent deep reinforcement learning (RL) task. A central agent sequentially recommends routes to travelers as origin-destination (OD) demands arrive, to minimize total system travel time. To enhance learning efficiency and solution quality, we develop an MSA-guided deep Q-learning algorithm that integrates the iterative structure of traditional traffic assignment methods into the RL training process. The proposed approach is evaluated on both the Braess and Ortuzar-Willumsen (OW) networks. Results show that the RL agent converges to the theoretical SO solution in the Braess network and achieves only a 0.35% deviation in the OW network. Further ablation studies demonstrate that the route action set's design significantly impacts convergence speed and final performance, with SO-informed route sets leading to faster learning and better outcomes. This work provides a theoretically grounded and practically relevant approach to bridging individual routing behavior with system-level efficiency through learning-based sequential assignment.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Departure time choice user equilibrium for public transport demand management

Departure time management is an efficient way in addressing the peak-hour crowding in public transport by reducing the temporal imbalance between service supply and travel demand. From the demand management perspective, the problem is to determine an equilibrium distribution of departure times for which no user can reduce their generalized cost by changing their departure times unilaterally. This study introduces the departure time choice user equilibrium problem in public transport (DTUE-PT) for multi-line, schedule-based networks with hard train capacity constraints. We model the DTUE-PT problem as a Non-linear Mathematical Program problem (NMP) (minimizing the system gap) with a simulation model describing the complex system dynamics and passenger interactions. We develop an efficient, adaptive gap-based descent direction (AdaGDD) solution algorithm to solve the NMP problem. We validate the methodology on a multi-line public transport network with transfers by comparing with classical public transport assignment benchmark models, including Method of Successive Average (MSA) and day-to-day learning methods. The results show that the model can achieve a system gap ratio (the solution gap relative to the ideal least cost of an origin-destination option) of 0.1926, which significantly improves the solution performance from day-to-day learning (85%) and MSA (76%) algorithms. The sensitivity analysis highlights the solution stability of AdaGDD method over initial solution settings. The potential use of DTUE-PT model is demonstrated for evaluating the network design of Hong Kong mass transit railway network and can be easily extended to incorporate the route choice.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

AI-Driven Day-to-Day Route Choice

Understanding travelers' route choices can help policymakers devise optimal operational and planning strategies for both normal and abnormal circumstances. However, existing choice modeling methods often rely on predefined assumptions and struggle to capture the dynamic and adaptive nature of travel behavior. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising alternative, demonstrating remarkable ability to replicate human-like behaviors across various fields. Despite this potential, their capacity to accurately simulate human route choice behavior in transportation contexts remains doubtful. To satisfy this curiosity, this paper investigates the potential of LLMs for route choice modeling by introducing an LLM-empowered agent, "LLMTraveler." This agent integrates an LLM as its core, equipped with a memory system that learns from past experiences and makes decisions by balancing retrieved data and personality traits. The study systematically evaluates the LLMTraveler's ability to replicate human-like decision-making through two stages of day-to-day (DTD) congestion games: (1) analyzing its route-switching behavior in single origin-destination (OD) pair scenarios, where it demonstrates patterns that align with laboratory data but cannot be fully explained by traditional models, and (2) testing its capacity to model adaptive learning behaviors in multi-OD scenarios on the Ortuzar and Willumsen (OW) network, producing results comparable to Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) models. These experiments demonstrate that the framework can partially replicate human-like decision-making in route choice while providing natural language explanations for its decisions. This capability offers valuable insights for transportation policymaking, such as simulating traveler responses to new policies or changes in the network.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Calibrating Path Choices and Train Capacities for Urban Rail Transit Simulation Models Using Smart Card and Train Movement Data

Transit network simulation models are often used for performance and retrospective analysis of urban rail systems, taking advantage of the availability of extensive automated fare collection (AFC) and automated vehicle location (AVL) data. Important inputs to such models, in addition to origin-destination flows, include passenger path choices and train capacity. Train capacity, which has often been overlooked in the literature, is an important input that exhibits a lot of variabilities. The paper proposes a simulation-based optimization (SBO) framework to simultaneously calibrate path choices and train capacity for urban rail systems using AFC and AVL data. The calibration is formulated as an optimization problem with a black-box objective function. Seven algorithms from four branches of SBO solving methods are evaluated. The algorithms are evaluated using an experimental design that includes five scenarios, representing different degrees of path choice randomness and crowding sensitivity. Data from the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway (MTR) system is used as a case study. The data is used to generate synthetic observations used as "ground truth". The results show that the response surface methods (particularly Constrained Optimization using Response Surfaces) have consistently good performance under all scenarios. The proposed approach drives large-scale simulation applications for monitoring and planning.

cs.OH↗

arXiv2022

An Integrated Ride-Matching Model for Shared Mobility on Demand Services

Shared mobility on demand (MoD) services are receiving increased attention as many high volume ride-hailing companies are offering shared services (e.g. UberPool, LyftLine) at an increasing rate. Also, the advent of autonomous vehicles (AVs) promises further operational opportunities to benefit from these developments as AVs enable a centrally operated and fully connected fleet. There are two fundamental tasks for a shared MoD service: ride-matching and vehicle rebalancing. Traditionally, these two functions are performed sequentially and independently. In this paper, we propose and formulate an integrated ride-matching problem which aims to integrate ride-matching and rebalancing into a single formulation. The integrated problem benefits from interactions between these two tasks. We also propose a methodology to solve the integrated shared ride-matching problem by using supply level information based on a grid representation of the city network. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology through a comparative case study using a benchmark sequential approach and an open source data set. Our results show that the integrated model is able to serve at least the same amount of passengers with significant gains in terms of level of service and sustainability metrics.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Dynamic Interlining in Bus Operations

The paper introduces and evaluates the concept of the dynamic interlining of buses. Dynamic interlining is an operational strategy for routes that have a terminal station at a common hub, that allows a portion of (or all) the fleet to be shared among the routes belonging to the hub (shared fleet) as needed. The shared fleet is dispatched on an on-demand basis to serve scheduled trips on any route to avoid delays and regulate services. The paper examines systematically the impacts of dynamic interlining on service reliability. It formulates the dispatching problem as an optimization problem and uses simulation to evaluate the dynamic interlining strategy under a variety of operating conditions. Using bus routes in Boston Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA) as a case study, the feasibility of the strategy, as well as factors that affect its performance are investigated. Results show that dynamic interlining can improve service reliability (increases on-time departures and decreases departure headways variability at the hub). The fraction of the fleet that is shared has the most dominant impact on performance. In the case where all buses are dynamically interlined, the performance improves as route frequency increases and more routes participate in the strategy.

cs.MA↗