arXiv subjects

Zhibin Niu

Publications and source records attributed to Zhibin Niu.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Regshock: Interactive Visual Analytics of Systemic Risk in Financial Networks

Financial regulatory agencies are struggling to manage the systemic risks attributed to negative economic shocks. Preventive interventions are prominent to eliminate the risks and help to build a more resilient financial system. Although tremendous efforts have been made to measure multi-risk severity levels, understand the contagion behaviors and other risk management problems, there still lacks a theoretical framework revealing what and how regulatory intervention measurements can mitigate systemic risk. Here we demonstrate regshock, a practical visual analytical approach to support the exploration and evaluation of financial regulation measurements. We propose risk-island, an unprecedented risk-centered visualization algorithm to help uncover the risk patterns while preserving the topology of financial networks. We further propose regshock, a novel visual exploration and assessment approach based on the simulation-intervention-evaluation analysis loop, to provide a heuristic surgical intervention capability for systemic risk mitigation. We evaluate our approach through extensive case studies and expert reviews. To our knowledge, this is the first practical systemic method for the financial network intervention and risk mitigation problem; our validated approach potentially improves the risk management and control capabilities of financial experts.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

iConViz: Interactive Visual Exploration of the Default Contagion Risk of Networked-Guarantee Loans

Groups of enterprises can serve as guarantees for one another and form complex networks when obtaining loans from commercial banks. During economic slowdowns, corporate default may spread like a virus and lead to large-scale defaults or even systemic financial crises. To help financial regulatory authorities and banks manage the risk associated with networked loans, we identified the default contagion risk, a pivotal issue in developing preventive measures, and established iConVis, an interactive visual analysis tool that facilitates the closed-loop analysis process. A novel financial metric, the contagion effect, was formulated to quantify the infectious consequences of guarantee chains in this type of network. Based on this metric, we designed and implement a series of novel and coordinated views that address the analysis of financial problems. Experts evaluated the system using real-world financial data. The proposed approach grants practitioners the ability to avoid previous ad hoc analysis methodologies and extend coverage of the conventional Capital Accord to the banking industry.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2020

regvis.net -- A Visual Bibliography of Regulatory Visualization

Information visualization and visual analytics technology has attracted significant attention from the financial regulation community. In this research, we present regvis.net, a visual survey of regulatory visualization that allows researchers from both the computing and financial communities to review their literature of interest. We have collected and manually tagged more than 80 regulation visualization related publications. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first publication set tailored for regulatory visualization. We have provided a webpage (http://regvis.net) for interactive searches and filtering. Each publication is represented by a thumbnail of the representative system interface or key visualization chart, and users can conduct multi-condition screening explorations and fixed text searches.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

$E^3$: Visual Exploration of Spatiotemporal Energy Demand

Understanding demand-side energy behaviour is critical for making efficiency responses for energy demand management. We worked closely with energy experts and identified the key elements of the energy demand problem including temporal and spatial demand and shifts in spatiotemporal demand. To our knowledge, no previous research has investigated the shifts in spatiotemporal demand. To fill this research gap, we propose a unified visual analytics approach to support exploratory demand analysis; we developed E3, a highly interactive tool that support users in making and verifying hypotheses through human-client-server interactions. A novel potential flow based approach was formalized to model shifts in energy demand and integrated into a server-side engine. Experts then evaluated and affirmed the usefulness of this approach through case studies of real-world electricity data. In the future, we will improve the modelling algorithm, enhance visualisation, and expand the process to support more forms of energy data.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2020

Prediction defaults for networked-guarantee loans

Networked-guarantee loans may cause the systemic risk related concern of the government and banks in China. The prediction of default of enterprise loans is a typical extremely imbalanced prediction problem, and the networked-guarantee make this problem more difficult to solve. Since the guaranteed loan is a debt obligation promise, if one enterprise in the guarantee network falls into a financial crisis, the debt risk may spread like a virus across the guarantee network, even lead to a systemic financial crisis. In this paper, we propose an imbalanced network risk diffusion model to forecast the enterprise default risk in a short future. Positive weighted k-nearest neighbors (p-wkNN) algorithm is developed for the stand-alone case -- when there is no default contagious; then a data-driven default diffusion model is integrated to further improve the prediction accuracy. We perform the empirical study on a real-world three-years loan record from a major commercial bank. The results show that our proposed method outperforms conventional credit risk methods in terms of AUC. In summary, our quantitative risk evaluation model shows promising prediction performance on real-world data, which could be useful to both regulators and stakeholders.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2020

Visual analytics for networked-guarantee loans risk management

Groups of enterprises guarantee each other and form complex guarantee networks when they try to obtain loans from banks. Such secured loan can enhance the solvency and promote the rapid growth in the economic upturn period. However, potential systemic risk may happen within the risk binding community. Especially, during the economic down period, the crisis may spread in the guarantee network like a domino. Monitoring the financial status, preventing or reducing systematic risk when crisis happens is highly concerned by the regulatory commission and banks. We propose visual analytics approach for loan guarantee network risk management, and consolidate the five analysis tasks with financial experts: i) visual analytics for enterprises default risk, whereby a hybrid representation is devised to predict the default risk and developed an interface to visualize key indicators; ii) visual analytics for high default groups, whereby a community detection based interactive approach is presented; iii) visual analytics for high defaults pattern, whereby a motif detection based interactive approach is described, and we adopt a Shneiderman Mantra strategy to reduce the computation complexity. iv) visual analytics for evolving guarantee network, whereby animation is used to help understanding the guarantee dynamic; v) visual analytics approach and interface for default diffusion path. The temporal diffusion path analysis can be useful for the government and bank to monitor the default spread status. It also provides insight for taking precautionary measures to prevent and dissolve systemic financial risk. We implement the system with case studies on a real-world guarantee network. Two financial experts are consulted with endorsement on the developed tool. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first visual analytics tool to explore the guarantee network risks in a systematic manner.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Updating the silent speech challenge benchmark with deep learning

The 2010 Silent Speech Challenge benchmark is updated with new results obtained in a Deep Learning strategy, using the same input features and decoding strategy as in the original article. A Word Error Rate of 6.4% is obtained, compared to the published value of 17.4%. Additional results comparing new auto-encoder-based features with the original features at reduced dimensionality, as well as decoding scenarios on two different language models, are also presented. The Silent Speech Challenge archive has been updated to contain both the original and the new auto-encoder features, in addition to the original raw data.

cs.CL↗