Causal Influence Maximization with Steady-State Guarantees
Classical influence maximization optimizes expected reach, which can be misaligned with welfare when exposures have heterogeneous, saturating, or adverse effects. We study seed selection for steady-state causal welfare under network interference. Under our exposure-separable outcome model and weak independent live-edge propagation, a deterministic surrogate built from expected activations and exposure counts approximates welfare with uniform $O(\varepsilon^2)$ error for a fixed graph and seed budget, where $\varepsilon$ bounds edge activation probabilities. Building on this reduction, our two-stage method, CIM, learns shape-constrained exposure-response functions from logged diffusion-outcome data and estimates expected activations and exposures by Monte Carlo simulation. For unregularized fits on a design that covers the evaluated exposures, and under noise and simulation conditions, we bound the welfare-estimation error uniformly over seed sets, separating structural, statistical, and simulation errors; with an approximation guarantee for the optimizer, the bound transfers to the selected seeds. Experiments on real network topologies with simulated outcomes and a synthetic benchmark show that CIM attains the highest mean welfare among the compared methods.