arXiv subjects

Zhixin Han

Publications and source records attributed to Zhixin Han.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

FutureWorld: A Live Reinforcement Learning Environment for Predictive Agents with Real-World Outcome Rewards

Live future prediction refers to the task of making predictions about real-world events before they unfold. This task is increasingly studied using large language model-based agent systems, and it is important for building agents that can continually learn from the real world. It can provide a large number of prediction questions grounded in diverse real-world events, while preventing answer leakage. To leverage the advantages of future prediction, we present FutureWorld, a live agentic reinforcement learning environment that closes the training loop between prediction, outcome realization, and parameter updates. Specifically, we modify and extend verl-tool, resulting in a new framework that we call verl-tool-future. Unlike standard reinforcement learning training frameworks that rely on immediate rewards, verl-tool-future stores prediction-time rollouts, backfills rewards after real-world outcomes become available, and then replays the completed trajectories for policy update. Across three open-source agents, successive FutureWorld training rounds lead to consistent improvements in prediction accuracy, probabilistic scoring, and calibration, demonstrating that delayed real-world outcome feedback can serve as an effective reinforcement learning signal.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Harnessing Pre-Resolution Signals for Future Prediction Agents

Many high-stakes decisions depend on forecasts made before outcomes are known. In this future prediction setting, the central challenge is that public evidence evolves over time, while the main supervision signal arrives only after resolution: the realized outcome mainly assesses final correctness, offering only coarse guidance on what to track, what to verify, and which judgments to leave uncertain along the way. Our key observation is that revisiting the same unresolved question over time creates informative temporal contrasts across evolving evidence and repeated forecasts, exposing what earlier attempts missed before resolution and yielding a diagnostic signal we call the pre-resolution signal. We instantiate this idea in Milkyway, a future prediction agent with a persistent future prediction harness, an editable external state that stores reusable procedural guidance across revisits to the same unresolved question. As the same unresolved question is revisited, Milkyway extracts pre-resolution signals from evolving evidence and repeated forecasts, uses them to update the harness, and improves later forecasts on that question before resolution. After resolution, the realized outcome serves as a post-resolution check of provisional updates. On the FutureX and FutureWorld benchmarks, Milkyway achieves strong performance against competitive baselines, and a mechanism study suggests that the gains stem from harness evolution driven by pre-resolution signals rather than repeated prediction alone.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

UBench: Benchmarking Uncertainty in Large Language Models with Multiple Choice Questions

Despite recent progress in systematic evaluation frameworks, benchmarking the uncertainty of large language models (LLMs) remains a highly challenging task. Existing methods for benchmarking the uncertainty of LLMs face three key challenges: the need for internal model access, additional training, or high computational costs. This is particularly unfavorable for closed-source models. To this end, we introduce UBench, a new benchmark for evaluating the uncertainty of LLMs. Unlike other benchmarks, UBench is based on confidence intervals. It encompasses 11,978 multiple-choice questions spanning knowledge, language, understanding, and reasoning capabilities. Based on this, we conduct extensive experiments. This includes comparisons with other advanced uncertainty estimation methods, the assessment of the uncertainty of 20 LLMs, and an exploration of the effects of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompts, role-playing (RP) prompts, and temperature on model uncertainty. Our analysis reveals several crucial insights: 1) Our confidence interval-based methods are highly effective for uncertainty quantification; 2) Regarding uncertainty, outstanding open-source models show competitive performance versus closed-source models; 3) CoT and RP prompts present potential ways to improve model reliability, while the influence of temperature changes follows no universal rule. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/Cyno2232/UBENCH.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

BvSP: Broad-view Soft Prompting for Few-Shot Aspect Sentiment Quad Prediction

Aspect sentiment quad prediction (ASQP) aims to predict four aspect-based elements, including aspect term, opinion term, aspect category, and sentiment polarity. In practice, unseen aspects, due to distinct data distribution, impose many challenges for a trained neural model. Motivated by this, this work formulates ASQP into the few-shot scenario, which aims for fast adaptation in real applications. Therefore, we first construct a few-shot ASQP dataset (FSQP) that contains richer categories and is more balanced for the few-shot study. Moreover, recent methods extract quads through a generation paradigm, which involves converting the input sentence into a templated target sequence. However, they primarily focus on the utilization of a single template or the consideration of different template orders, thereby overlooking the correlations among various templates. To tackle this issue, we further propose a Broadview Soft Prompting (BvSP) method that aggregates multiple templates with a broader view by taking into account the correlation between the different templates. Specifically, BvSP uses the pre-trained language model to select the most relevant k templates with Jensen-Shannon divergence. BvSP further introduces soft prompts to guide the pre-trained language model using the selected templates. Then, we aggregate the results of multi-templates by voting mechanism. Empirical results demonstrate that BvSP significantly outperforms the stateof-the-art methods under four few-shot settings and other public datasets. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/byinhao/BvSP.

cs.CL↗