arXiv subjects

Zhiyong Cui

Publications and source records attributed to Zhiyong Cui.

47 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Graph Markov Network for Traffic Forecasting with Missing Data

Traffic forecasting is a classical task for traffic management and it plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems. However, since traffic data are mostly collected by traffic sensors or probe vehicles, sensor failures and the lack of probe vehicles will inevitably result in missing values in the collected raw data for some specific links in the traffic network. Although missing values can be imputed, existing data imputation methods normally need long-term historical traffic state data. As for short-term traffic forecasting, especially under edge computing and online prediction scenarios, traffic forecasting models with the capability of handling missing values are needed. In this study, we consider the traffic network as a graph and define the transition between network-wide traffic states at consecutive time steps as a graph Markov process. In this way, missing traffic states can be inferred step by step and the spatial-temporal relationships among the roadway links can be Incorporated. Based on the graph Markov process, we propose a new neural network architecture for spatial-temporal data forecasting, i.e. the graph Markov network (GMN). By incorporating the spectral graph convolution operation, we also propose a spectral graph Markov network (SGMN). The proposed models are compared with baseline models and tested on three real-world traffic state datasets with various missing rates. Experimental results show that the proposed GMN and SGMN can achieve superior prediction performance in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the proposed models' parameters, weights, and predicted results are comprehensively analyzed and visualized.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Deep Bidirectional and Unidirectional LSTM Recurrent Neural Network for Network-wide Traffic Speed Prediction

Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of deep learning methods in traffic forecasting has not yet fully been exploited in terms of the depth of the model architecture, the spatial scale of the prediction area, and the predictive power of spatial-temporal data. In this paper, a deep stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM (SBU- LSTM) neural network architecture is proposed, which considers both forward and backward dependencies in time series data, to predict network-wide traffic speed. A bidirectional LSTM (BDLSM) layer is exploited to capture spatial features and bidirectional temporal dependencies from historical data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that BDLSTMs have been applied as building blocks for a deep architecture model to measure the backward dependency of traffic data for prediction. The proposed model can handle missing values in input data by using a masking mechanism. Further, this scalable model can predict traffic speed for both freeway and complex urban traffic networks. Comparisons with other classical and state-of-the-art models indicate that the proposed SBU-LSTM neural network achieves superior prediction performance for the whole traffic network in both accuracy and robustness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Perspectives on stability and mobility of transit passenger's travel behaviour through smart card data

Existing studies have extensively used spatiotemporal data to discover the mobility patterns of various types of travellers. Smart card data (SCD) collected by the automated fare collection systems can reflect a general view of the mobility pattern of public transit riders. Mobility patterns of transit riders are temporally and spatially dynamic, and therefore difficult to measure. However, few existing studies measure both the mobility and stability of transit riders' travel patterns over a long period of time. To analyse the long-term changes of transit riders' travel behaviour, the authors define a metric for measuring the similarity between SCD, in this study. Also an improved density-based clustering algorithm, simplified smoothed ordering points to identify the clustering structure (SS-OPTICS), to identify transit rider clusters is proposed. Compared to the original OPTICS, SS-OPTICS needs fewer parameters and has better generalisation ability. Further, the generated clusters are categorized according to their features of regularity and occasionality. Based on the generated clusters and categories, fine- and coarse-grained travel pattern transitions of transit riders over four years from 2010 to 2014 are measured. By combining socioeconomic data of Beijing in the year of 2010 and 2014, the interdependence between stability and mobility of transit riders' travel behaviour is also discussed.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Traffic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Framework for Network-Scale Traffic Learning and Forecasting

Traffic forecasting is a particularly challenging application of spatiotemporal forecasting, due to the time-varying traffic patterns and the complicated spatial dependencies on road networks. To address this challenge, we learn the traffic network as a graph and propose a novel deep learning framework, Traffic Graph Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (TGC-LSTM), to learn the interactions between roadways in the traffic network and forecast the network-wide traffic state. We define the traffic graph convolution based on the physical network topology. The relationship between the proposed traffic graph convolution and the spectral graph convolution is also discussed. An L1-norm on graph convolution weights and an L2-norm on graph convolution features are added to the model's loss function to enhance the interpretability of the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms baseline methods on two real-world traffic state datasets. The visualization of the graph convolution weights indicates that the proposed framework can recognize the most influential road segments in real-world traffic networks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Mining Public Transit Ridership Flow and Origin-Destination Information from Wi-Fi and Bluetooth Sensing Data

Transit ridership flow and origin-destination (O-D) information is essential for enhancing transit network design, optimizing transit route and improving service. The effectiveness and preciseness of the traditional survey-based and smart card data-driven method for O-D information inference have multiple disadvantages due to the insufficient sample, the high time and energy cost, and the lack of inferring results validation. By considering the ubiquity of smart mobile devices in the world, several methods were developed for estimating the transit ridership flow from Wi-Fi and Bluetooth sensing data by filtering out the non-passenger MAC addresses based on the predefined thresholds. However, the accuracy of the filtering methods is still questionable for the indeterminate threshold values and the lack of quantitative results validation. By combining the consideration of the assumed overlapped feature space of passenger and non-passenger with the above concerns, a three steps data-driven method for estimating transit ridership flow and O-D information from Wi-Fi and Bluetooth sensing data is proposed in this paper. The observed ridership flow is used as ground truth for calculating the performance measurements. According to the results, the proposed approach outperformed all selected baseline models and existing filtering methods. The findings of this study can help to provide real-time and precise transit ridership flow and O-D information for supporting transit vehicle management and the quality of service enhancement.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

Time-Aware Gated Recurrent Unit Networks for Road Surface Friction Prediction Using Historical Data

An accurate road surface friction prediction algorithm can enable intelligent transportation systems to share timely road surface condition to the public for increasing the safety of the road users. Previously, scholars developed multiple prediction models for forecasting road surface conditions using historical data. However, road surface condition data cannot be perfectly collected at every timestamp, e.g. the data collected by on-vehicle sensors may be influenced when vehicles cannot travel due to economic cost issue or weather issues. Such resulted missing values in the collected data can damage the effectiveness and accuracy of the existing prediction methods since they are assumed to have the input data with a fixed temporal resolution. This study proposed a road surface friction prediction model employing a Gated Recurrent Unit network-based decay mechanism (GRU-D) to handle the missing values. The evaluation results present that the proposed GRU-D networks outperform all baseline models. The impact of missing rate on predictive accuracy, learning efficiency and learned decay rate are analyzed as well. The findings can help improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of forecasting road surface friction using historical data sets with missing values, therefore mitigating the impact of wet or icy road conditions on traffic safety.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Road Surface Friction Prediction Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Historical Data

Road surface friction significantly impacts traffic safety and mobility. A precise road surface friction prediction model can help to alleviate the influence of inclement road conditions on traffic safety, Level of Service, traffic mobility, fuel efficiency, and sustained economic productivity. Most related previous studies are laboratory-based methods that are difficult for practical implementation. Moreover, in other data-driven methods, the demonstrated time-series features of road surface conditions have not been considered. This study employed a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to develop a data-driven road surface friction prediction model based on historical data. The proposed prediction model outperformed the other baseline models in terms of the lowest value of predictive performance measurements. The influence of the number of time-lags and the predicting time interval on predictive accuracy was analyzed. In addition, the influence of adding road surface water thickness, road surface temperature and air temperature on predictive accuracy also were investigated. The findings of this study can support road maintenance strategy development and decision making, thus mitigating the impact of inclement road conditions on traffic mobility and safety. Future work includes a modified LSTM-based prediction model development by accommodating flexible time intervals between time-lags.

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arXiv2019

Traffic Sign Detection and Recognition for Autonomous Driving in Virtual Simulation Environment

This study developed a traffic sign detection and recognition algorithm based on the RetinaNet. Two main aspects were revised to improve the detection of traffic signs: image cropping to address the issue of large image and small traffic signs; and using more anchors with various scales to detect traffic signs with different sizes and shapes. The proposed algorithm was trained and tested in a series of autonomous driving front-view images in a virtual simulation environment. Results show that the algorithm performed extremely well under good illumination and weather conditions. Its drawbacks are that it sometimes failed to detect object under bad weather conditions like snow and failed to distinguish speed limits signs with different limit values.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

Two-Stream Multi-Channel Convolutional Neural Network (TM-CNN) for Multi-Lane Traffic Speed Prediction Considering Traffic Volume Impact

Traffic speed prediction is a critically important component of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning and transportation data science, a growing body of new traffic speed prediction models have been designed, which achieved high accuracy and large-scale prediction. However, existing studies have two major limitations. First, they predict aggregated traffic speed rather than lane-level traffic speed; second, most studies ignore the impact of other traffic flow parameters in speed prediction. To address these issues, we propose a two-stream multi-channel convolutional neural network (TM-CNN) model for multi-lane traffic speed prediction considering traffic volume impact. In this model, we first introduce a new data conversion method that converts raw traffic speed data and volume data into spatial-temporal multi-channel matrices. Then we carefully design a two-stream deep neural network to effectively learn the features and correlations between individual lanes, in the spatial-temporal dimensions, and between speed and volume. Accordingly, a new loss function that considers the volume impact in speed prediction is developed. A case study using one-year data validates the TM-CNN model and demonstrates its superiority. This paper contributes to two research areas: (1) traffic speed prediction, and (2) multi-lane traffic flow study.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

Forecasting Transportation Network Speed Using Deep Capsule Networks with Nested LSTM Models

Accurate and reliable traffic forecasting for complicated transportation networks is of vital importance to modern transportation management. The complicated spatial dependencies of roadway links and the dynamic temporal patterns of traffic states make it particularly challenging. To address these challenges, we propose a new capsule network (CapsNet) to extract the spatial features of traffic networks and utilize a nested LSTM (NLSTM) structure to capture the hierarchical temporal dependencies in traffic sequence data. A framework for network-level traffic forecasting is also proposed by sequentially connecting CapsNet and NLSTM. On the basis of literature review, our study is the first to adopt CapsNet and NLSTM in the field of traffic forecasting. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links shows that the proposed framework with the capability of capturing complicated spatiotemporal traffic patterns outperforms multiple state-of-the-art traffic forecasting baseline models. The superiority and feasibility of CapsNet and NLSTM are also demonstrated, respectively, by visualizing and quantitatively evaluating the experimental results.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

A Deep Generative Adversarial Architecture for Network-Wide Spatial-Temporal Traffic State Estimation

This study proposes a deep generative adversarial architecture (GAA) for network-wide spatial-temporal traffic state estimation. The GAA is able to combine traffic flow theory with neural networks and thus improve the accuracy of traffic state estimation. It consists of two Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks (LSTM NNs) which capture correlation in time and space among traffic flow and traffic density. One of the LSTM NNs, called a discriminative network, aims to maximize the probability of assigning correct labels to both true traffic state matrices (i.e., traffic flow and traffic density within a given spatial-temporal area) and the traffic state matrices generated from the other neural network. The other LSTM NN, called a generative network, aims to generate traffic state matrices which maximize the probability that the discriminative network assigns true labels to them. The two LSTM NNs are trained simultaneously such that the trained generative network can generate traffic matrices similar to those in the training data set. Given a traffic state matrix with missing values, we use back-propagation on three defined loss functions to map the corrupted matrix to a latent space. The mapping vector is then passed through the pre-trained generative network to estimate the missing values of the corrupted matrix. The proposed GAA is compared with the existing Bayesian network approach on loop detector data collected from Seattle, Washington and that collected from San Diego, California. Experimental results indicate that the GAA can achieve higher accuracy in traffic state estimation than the Bayesian network approach.

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