arXiv subjects

Zhong-guo Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Zhong-guo Zhou.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Liquidity-adjusted Return and Volatility, and Autoregressive Models

We construct liquidity-adjusted return and volatility using purposely designed liquidity metrics (liquidity jump and liquidity diffusion) that incorporate additional liquidity information. Based on these measures, we introduce a liquidity-adjusted ARMA-GARCH framework to address the limitations of traditional ARMA-GARCH models, which are not effectively in modeling illiquid assets with high liquidity variability, such as cryptocurrencies. We demonstrate that the liquidity-adjusted model improves model fit for cryptocurrencies, with greater volatility sensitivity to past shocks and reduced volatility persistence of erratic past volatility. Our model is validated by the empirical evidence that the liquidity-adjusted mean-variance (LAMV) portfolios outperform the traditional mean-variance (TMV) portfolios.

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arXiv2024

Liquidity Jump, Liquidity Diffusion, and Treatment on Wash Trading of Crypto Assets

We propose that the liquidity of an asset includes two components: liquidity jump and liquidity diffusion. We show that liquidity diffusion has a higher correlation with crypto wash trading than liquidity jump and demonstrate that treatment on wash trading significantly reduces the level of liquidity diffusion, but only marginally reduces that of liquidity jump. We confirm that the autoregressive models are highly effective in modeling the liquidity-adjusted return with and without the treatment on wash trading. We argue that treatment on wash trading is unnecessary in modeling established crypto assets that trade in unregulated but mainstream exchanges.

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arXiv2024

Liquidity Premium, Liquidity-Adjusted Return and Volatility, and Extreme Liquidity

We establish innovative liquidity premium measures, and construct liquidity-adjusted return and volatility to model assets with extreme liquidity, represented by a portfolio of selected crypto assets, and upon which we develop a set of liquidity-adjusted ARMA-GARCH/EGARCH models. We demonstrate that these models produce superior predictability at extreme liquidity to their traditional counterparts. We provide empirical support by comparing the performances of a series of Mean Variance portfolios.

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arXiv2023

The Impacts of Registration Regime Implementation on IPO Pricing Efficiency

We study the impacts of regime changes and related rule implementations on IPOs initial return for China entrepreneurial boards (ChiNext and STAR). We propose that an initial return contains the issuer fair value and an investors overreaction and examine their magnitudes and determinants. Our findings reveal an evolution of IPO pricing in response to the progression of regulation changes along four dimensions: 1) governing regulation regime, 2) listing day trading restrictions, 3) listing rules for issuers, and 4) participation requirements for investors. We find that the most efficient regulation regime in Chinese IPO pricing has four characteristics: 1) registration system, 2) no hard return caps nor trading curbs that restrict the initial return; 3) more specific listing rules for issuers, and 4) more stringent participation requirements for investors. In all contexts, we show that the registration regime governing the STAR IPOs offers the most efficient pricing.

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arXiv2022

The Impact of Regulation Regime Changes on ChiNext IPOs: Effects of 2013 and 2020 Reforms on Pricing and Overreaction

Since its inauguration, ChiNext has gone through three time periods with two different regulation regimes and three different sets of listing day trading restrictions. This paper studies the impact of regulation regimes and listing day trading restrictions on the initial return of ChiNext IPOs. We hypothesize that the initial return of a ChiNext IPO contains the issuers intrinsic value and the investors overreaction. The intrinsic value is represented by the IPOs 21st day return (monthly return), and the difference between the monthly and initial returns (intramonth return) is a proxy of the overreaction. We find that all significant variables for all three returns in all three time periods fall into four categories: pre-listing demand, post-listing demand, market condition and pre-listing issuer value. We observe stark contrasts among variable categories for each of the returns in the three time periods, which reveals an evolution of the investors behavior with regard to the progression of regulation regimes. Based on our findings, we argue that the differences among the levels and determinants of initial return, monthly return (intrinsic value) and intramonth return (overreaction) in different time periods can be largely explained by regulation regime changes along two dimensions: 1) approval vs. registration and 2) listing day trading curbs and return limits. We find that IPO pricing is demand-driven under the approval regime, but value-driven under the registration regime. We further compare the impact of regulation regime changes on ChiNext IPO pricing practice, and propose a future research plan on ChiNext IPO pricing efficiency with policy implication.

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