arXiv subjects

Zhongpu Qiu

Publications and source records attributed to Zhongpu Qiu.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Long-Range Order in Coupled $D$-dimensional Kuramoto Oscillators

We show that the long-range order (LRO) strikingly emerges in systems of locally coupled $D$-dimensional vector Kuramoto oscillators on low-dimensional lattices ($d=1,2$), but only for odd $D$. This parity-dependent effect is traced to two-oscillator dynamics, where odd-$D$ units synchronize for any coupling, while even-$D$ pairs require a finite threshold. This fundamental difference selectively seeds collective order in large-scale systems, a phenomenon demonstrated by our numerical simulations. A renormalization group analysis reveals a RG flow to a weak-coupling fixed point for $d \le 2$. In this limit, odd-$D$ systems effectively map to a ferromagnetic model, developing an ordered ``hemisphere" phase, whereas even-$D$ systems remain disordered. Our findings further reveal orientational LRO emerges in both $d=1$ and $d=2$, but frequency LRO requires $d=2$. We contrast these results with the established behavior of models possessing continuous symmetry, highlighting how quenched disorder provides a fundamentally new route to order.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2026

Efficient Generative AI Boosts Probabilistic Forecasting of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are key sources of subseasonal predictability and major drivers of extreme weather in winter. Accurate and efficient probabilistic forecasting of these events remains a persistent challenge for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems due to computational bottlenecks and limitations in physical representation. While data-driven forecasting is rapidly evolving, its application to the complex, three-dimensional dynamics of SSWs remains underexplored. Here, we bridge this gap by developing a Flow Matching-based generative AI model (FM-Cast) for efficient and skillful probabilistic forecasting of the spatiotemporal evolution of stratospheric circulation in winter. Evaluated across 18 major SSW events (1998-2024), FM-Cast successfully forecasts the onset, intensity, and 3D morphology of the polar vortex up to 15 days in advance for most cases. Notably, it achieves long-range probabilistic forecast skill comparable to or exceeding leading operational NWP systems (ECMWF and CMA) while generating a 30-day forecast with 50-member ensemble, in just two minutes on a consumer GPU. Furthermore, using idealized "perfect troposphere" experiments, we uncover distinct predictability regimes: events driven by continuous wave forcing versus those governed by an initial trigger and subsequent stratospheric dynamical memory. This work establishes a computationally efficient paradigm for probabilistic stratospheric forecasting that simultaneously deepens our physical understanding of atmosphere-climate dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Long-term prediction of ENSO with physics-guided Deep Echo State Networks

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that operates on physically interpretable climate modes selected from the extended recharge oscillator (XRO) framework. DESN achieves skillful Niño3.4 predictions up to 16-20 months ahead with minimal computational cost. Mechanistic experiments show that extended predictability arises from nonlinear coupling between warm water volume and inter-basin climate modes. Error-growth analysis further indicates a finite ENSO predictability horizon of approximately 30 months. These results demonstrate that physics-guided reservoir computing provides an efficient and interpretable framework for diagnosing and predicting ENSO at long lead times.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Criticality and Universality of Generalized Kuramoto Model

We explore synchronization transitions in even-$D$-dimensional generalized Kuramoto oscillators on both complete graphs and $d$-dimensional lattices. In the globally coupled system, analytical expansions of the self-consistency equations, incorporating finite-size corrections, reveal universal critical exponents $β= 1/2$ and $\barν = 5/2$ for all even $D$, indicating an unconventional upper critical dimension $d_u = 5$. Extensive numerical simulations across multiple $D$ confirm these theoretical predictions. For locally coupled systems, we develop a framework based on spin-wave theory and fluctuation-resolved functional network diagnostics, which captures criticality in entrainment transition. A modified Edwards-Anderson order parameter further validates the predicted exponents. This combined theoretical and numerical study uncovers a family of universality classes characterized by $D$-independent but $d$-dependent criticality, offering a unified perspective on symmetry and dimensionality in nonequilibrium synchronization phenomena.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗