arXiv subjects

Zhongyuan Liang

Publications and source records attributed to Zhongyuan Liang.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Artificial intelligences and human scientists exhibit complementary strengths in theory building

We investigate the effectiveness of artificial intelligences (AI)-specifically large language models (LLMs)-relative to human scientists at high-level cognitive tasks in social science such as theory formulation, predictions of novel empirical results, and theory revision in response to new evidence. The research domain was academic discourse regarding gender and race inequality. Our findings, comparing 25 LLMs with 13 senior researchers and 60 doctoral scholars, reveal that the AIs outperformed most humans individually on most of the present tasks, while human theories were more diverse and exhibited greater gains in predictive accuracy from aggregation. AI-generated theories were more extensively elaborated, involving additional theoretical paths and latent variables, and were rated as higher quality than human theories by independent raters blinded to source. However, this theoretical complexity was in part ornamental, in that it was not associated with more accurate predictions about empirical patterns in data; in contrast, human scientists achieved greater predictive efficiency with simpler theories. The AIs were significantly more likely than human scientists to revise their theories to incorporate new evidence; human scientists updated their beliefs in a selective way that is sensitive to prior prediction errors. We speculate that the superior processing capacity of artificial intelligences makes them especially well-suited to tasks requiring grappling with complexity, but that the greater diversity of human ideas is essential to wise crowds and collective creativity.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

OC-Distill: Ontology-aware Contrastive Learning with Cross-Modal Distillation for ICU Risk Prediction

Early prediction of severe clinical deterioration and remaining length of stay can enable timely intervention and better resource allocation in high-acuity settings such as the ICU. This has driven the development of machine learning models that leverage continuous streams of vital signs and other physiological signals for real-time risk prediction. Despite their promise, existing methods have important limitations. Contrastive pretraining treats all patients as equally strong negatives, failing to capture clinically meaningful similarity between patients with related diagnoses. Meanwhile, downstream fine-tuning typically ignores complementary modalities such as clinical notes, which provide rich contextual information unavailable in physiological signals alone. To address these challenges, we propose OC-Distill, a two-stage framework that leverages multimodal supervision during training while requiring only vital signs at inference. In the first stage, we introduce an ontology-aware contrastive objective that exploits the ICD hierarchy to quantify patient similarity and learn clinically grounded representations. In the second stage, we fine-tune the pretrained encoder via cross-modal knowledge distillation, transferring complementary information from clinical notes into the model. Across multiple ICU prediction tasks on MIMIC, OC-Distill demonstrates improved label efficiency and achieves state-of-the-art performance among methods that use only vital signs at inference.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Local MDI+: Local Feature Importances for Tree-Based Models

Tree-based ensembles such as random forests remain the go-to for tabular data over deep learning models due to their prediction performance and computational efficiency. These advantages have led to their widespread deployment in high-stakes domains, where interpretability is essential for ensuring trustworthy predictions. This has motivated the development of popular local feature importance methods such as LIME and TreeSHAP. However, these approaches rely on approximations that ignore the model's internal structure and instead depend on potentially unstable perturbations. These issues are addressed in the global setting by MDI+, a global feature importance method which combines tree-based and linear feature importances by exploiting an equivalence between decision trees and least squares on a transformed node basis. However, the global MDI+ scores are not able to explain predictions when faced with heterogeneous individual characteristics. To address this gap, we propose Local MDI+ (LMDI+), a novel extension of the MDI+ framework that quantifies feature importances for each particular sample. Across twelve real-world benchmark datasets, LMDI+ outperforms existing baselines at identifying instance-specific predictive features, yielding an average 10% improvement in predictive performance when using only the selected features. It further demonstrates greater stability by consistently producing similar instance-level feature importance rankings across repeated model fits with different random seeds. Ablation experiments show that each component of LMDI+ contributes to these gains, and that the improvements extend beyond random forests to gradient boosting models. Finally, we show that LMDI+ enables local interpretability use cases by identifying closely matched counterfactuals for each classification benchmark and discovering homogeneous subgroups in a housing dataset case study.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Do Sparse Autoencoders Identify Reasoning Features in Language Models?

We study how reliably sparse autoencoders (SAEs) support claims about reasoning-related internal features in large language models. We first give a stylized analysis showing that sparsity-regularized decoding can preferentially retain stable low-dimensional correlates while suppressing high-dimensional within-behavior variation, motivating the possibility that contrastively selected "reasoning" features may concentrate on cue-like structure when such cues are coupled with reasoning traces. Building on this perspective, we propose a falsification-based evaluation framework that combines causal token injection with LLM-guided counterexample construction. Across 22 configurations spanning multiple model families, layers, and reasoning datasets, we find that many contrastively selected candidates are highly sensitive to token-level interventions, with 45%-90% activating after injecting only a few associated tokens into non-reasoning text. For the remaining context-dependent candidates, LLM-guided falsification produces targeted non-reasoning inputs that trigger activation and meaning-preserving paraphrases of top-activating reasoning traces that suppress it. A small steering study yields minimal changes on the evaluated benchmarks. Overall, our results suggest that, in the settings we study, sparse decompositions can favor low-dimensional correlates that co-occur with reasoning, underscoring the need for falsification when attributing high-level behaviors to individual SAE features. Code is available at https://github.com/GeorgeMLP/reasoning-probing.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Hybrid Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data involves modeling decisions that differ from supervised learning, particularly concerning how to regularize model complexity. Previous approaches can be grouped into two primary "meta-learner" paradigms that impose distinct inductive biases. Indirect meta-learners first fit and regularize separate potential outcome (PO) models and then estimate CATE by taking their difference, whereas direct meta-learners construct and directly regularize estimators for the CATE function itself. Neither approach consistently outperforms the other across all scenarios: indirect learners perform well when the PO functions are simple, while direct learners outperform when the CATE is simpler than individual PO functions. In this paper, we introduce the Hybrid Learner (H-learner), a novel regularization strategy that interpolates between the direct and indirect regularizations depending on the dataset at hand. The H-learner achieves this by learning intermediate functions whose difference closely approximates the CATE without necessarily requiring accurate individual approximations of the POs themselves. We demonstrate that intentionally allowing suboptimal fits to the POs improves the bias-variance tradeoff in estimating CATE. Experiments conducted on semi-synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets illustrate that the H-learner consistently operates at the Pareto frontier, effectively combining the strengths of both direct and indirect meta-learners.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Reflections from Research Roundtables at the Conference on Health, Inference, and Learning (CHIL) 2025

The 6th Annual Conference on Health, Inference, and Learning (CHIL 2025), hosted by the Association for Health Learning and Inference (AHLI), was held in person on June 25-27, 2025, at the University of California, Berkeley, in Berkeley, California, USA. As part of this year's program, we hosted Research Roundtables to catalyze collaborative, small-group dialogue around critical, timely topics at the intersection of machine learning and healthcare. Each roundtable was moderated by a team of senior and junior chairs who fostered open exchange, intellectual curiosity, and inclusive engagement. The sessions emphasized rigorous discussion of key challenges, exploration of emerging opportunities, and collective ideation toward actionable directions in the field. In total, eight roundtables were held by 19 roundtable chairs on topics of "Explainability, Interpretability, and Transparency," "Uncertainty, Bias, and Fairness," "Causality," "Domain Adaptation," "Foundation Models," "Learning from Small Medical Data," "Multimodal Methods," and "Scalable, Translational Healthcare Solutions."

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Revealing Treatment Non-Adherence Bias in Clinical Machine Learning Using Large Language Models

Machine learning systems trained on electronic health records (EHRs) increasingly guide treatment decisions, but their reliability depends on the critical assumption that patients follow the prescribed treatments recorded in EHRs. Using EHR data from 3,623 hypertension patients, we investigate how treatment non-adherence introduces implicit bias that can fundamentally distort both causal inference and predictive modeling. By extracting patient adherence information from clinical notes using a large language model (LLM), we identify 786 patients (21.7%) with medication non-adherence. We further uncover key demographic and clinical factors associated with non-adherence, as well as patient-reported reasons including side effects and difficulties obtaining refills. Our findings demonstrate that this implicit bias can not only reverse estimated treatment effects, but also degrade model performance by up to 5% while disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations by exacerbating disparities in decision outcomes and model error rates. This highlights the importance of accounting for treatment non-adherence in developing responsible and equitable clinical machine learning systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

A Learning Based Hypothesis Test for Harmful Covariate Shift

The ability to quickly and accurately identify covariate shift at test time is a critical and often overlooked component of safe machine learning systems deployed in high-risk domains. While methods exist for detecting when predictions should not be made on out-of-distribution test examples, identifying distributional level differences between training and test time can help determine when a model should be removed from the deployment setting and retrained. In this work, we define harmful covariate shift (HCS) as a change in distribution that may weaken the generalization of a predictive model. To detect HCS, we use the discordance between an ensemble of classifiers trained to agree on training data and disagree on test data. We derive a loss function for training this ensemble and show that the disagreement rate and entropy represent powerful discriminative statistics for HCS. Empirically, we demonstrate the ability of our method to detect harmful covariate shift with statistical certainty on a variety of high-dimensional datasets. Across numerous domains and modalities, we show state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods, particularly when the number of observed test samples is small.

cs.LG↗